(I hope you all had enough time to tend to the nerve I apparently disturbed.)
LottoBoner asks, "When you say ludic fallacies, are you sure you dont mean Phallic lewdities?"
No, they really are called Ludic Fallacies. Jim Firestone summed them up quite nicely:
http://kmci.org/alllifeisproblemsolving/archives/notes-for-black-swan-ideas-lottery-ticket-and-ludic-fallacies-mandelbrodtian-randomness-gray-swans-and-the-narrative-fallacy/
"The Ludic Fallacy. This is the idea of associating chance, randomness, and uncertainty in the real world with games of chance and the mathematical models that govern our expectations about them. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb(NNT,) gambling is 'sterilized and domesticated uncertainty.' It is uncertainty in which you know both the rules generating uncertainty and the sources of uncertainty. 'In real life you do not know the odds; you need to discover them, and the sources of uncertainty are not defined.' So, according to NNT, mathematizations based on games of chance such as Gaussian Models cannot be applied to the real world of social events and processes, without committing an error. Such models simply don’t work in reality and we risk costly errors if we assume that they can, and apply them in action. NNT illustrates the Ludic fallacy by discussing the risk management efforts of a Las Vegas casino. The casino used sophisticated models and computer systems to protect itself from occasional very lucky people and also from 'cheaters.' But it failed to anticipate four key Black Swan events having nothing to do with its models that cost it dearly. In sum, its off-model Black Swans swamped its 'on-model risks by a factor of close to 1,000 to 1.'"
Do you think you've ever fallen into the mind trap of this fallacy?
--Jimmy4164
P.S. RL: Have you checked in yet with BobP regarding your Pick-3 software?