Louisiana United States
Member #90,212
April 24, 2010
15,354 Posts Online
Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on May 6, 2013
I was being sarcastic. Strange how they don't respond to that post. I can smell the smoke coming out of their ears while they scramble and dig the barrel for answers.
money,
I'm not the only member here doing this ! Many of other members is doing this daily in thier own games of choice ...
United States
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June 2, 2012
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Quote: Originally posted by CajunWin4 on May 6, 2013
money,
I'm not the only member here doing this ! Many of other members is doing this daily in thier own games of choice ...
You're preaching to the choir. lol
Tell that to Boney and Jimmy. Good Luck !
Prepare to argue for hours on end about how it's not possible for you and the others to do this. Have a bottle of aspirin next to you, you'll need them.
Louisiana United States
Member #90,212
April 24, 2010
15,354 Posts Online
Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on May 6, 2013
You're preaching to the choir. lol
Tell that to Boney and Jimmy. Good Luck !
Prepare to argue for hours on end about how it's not possible for you and the others to do this. Have a bottle of aspirin next to you, you'll need them.
I gave up on them 2 along time ago !! Their just wasted space on the LP ...
United States
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July 10, 2010
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Quote: Originally posted by onlymoney on May 6, 2013
I was being sarcastic. Strange how they don't respond to that post. I can smell the smoke coming out of their ears while they scramble and dig the barrel for answers.
OnlyMoney,
The reason I didn't reply is that I haven't viewed anything at the Prediction Boards that challenges the math. And that includes my own P3 and P4 predictions. At the risk of causing yourself some cognitive dissonance, check out how my picks...
...are on par with most others over the first 4 months of 2013.
What you believers need to do is spend a little of your free time with this simulator. Even if it doesn't change your thinking, you might have some relaxing fun.
Note that you can test various "What If" scenarios by changing the default settings. For example, if you Unclick the Quick Pick box, you will be able to change "Your Ticket Numbers" to whatever you want, so you can see if there are any differences between playing your numbers and QuickPicks. Unfortunately, you can't single step your way through the draws, so you won't be able to test your SHORT TERM trend strategies, which some of you rely on. But still, you might get some insights anyway. (You can even test 1,2,3,4,5 (PB=6))
United States
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June 2, 2012
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on May 6, 2013
OnlyMoney,
The reason I didn't reply is that I haven't viewed anything at the Prediction Boards that challenges the math. And that includes my own P3 and P4 predictions. At the risk of causing yourself some cognitive dissonance, check out how my picks...
...are on par with most others over the first 4 months of 2013.
What you believers need to do is spend a little of your free time with this simulator. Even if it doesn't change your thinking, you might have some relaxing fun.
Note that you can test various "What If" scenarios by changing the default settings. For example, if you Unclick the Quick Pick box, you will be able to change "Your Ticket Numbers" to whatever you want, so you can see if there are any differences between playing your numbers and QuickPicks. Unfortunately, you can't single step your way through the draws, so you won't be able to test your SHORT TERM trend strategies, which some of you rely on. But still, you might get some insights anyway. (You can even test 1,2,3,4,5 (PB=6))
(If you check all the boxes in the "Stop" column, it will stop quite often, allowing you to continue.)
When you get tired of Powerball, scroll down and investigate other options at JustWebWare.
Have fun!
--Jimmy4164
I don't play the JP games except the Florida fantasy Five occasionally just for fun. Look at my signature.
Despite what the prediction board reads, there are people winning at the p-3 and p-4 games. I know two people like I stated above. One of them is not as personal as the other. Even If I didn't know two people, with the large amount of systems and strategies, betting types, there has to be a handful or more who've figured it out. They don't win everytime, but they don't have to in order to make money on a regular basis.
If I know two people, then just Imagine how many more there must be out there.
Kentucky United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,301 Posts Online
Quote: Originally posted by Boney526 on May 6, 2013
Because that's what variance is... It means that not everyone is going to lose at exactly 50% all of the time, and that that's normal.
Which is why I said no BETTING SYSTEM outperforms the edge. We never said that everyoe loses at 50% exactly, we said that's the edge, it's normal for some people to lose at different rates, and betting systems don't change the edge, just the amount of winners and losers and the amount they won and lost by (a few more winners, many more big losers, for most betting sytems.) If you did the math, you'd find that the simulation lost at 50% overall, and that there were lots of losers and a few winners. That's just random variance, what we call luck.
Change the betting system, and you'll change the number of winners and losers, but you won't change the fact that the simulation will lose at 50%. You'll be able to pick out one guy who only lost, say 20%, but you'll also be able to find a guy who lost 98%. Add them all up, you'll get 50% of money wagered lost. And who wins and who loses? Well, that's decided by randomness, nothing else.
Look, there's no point in me posting if you literally ignore what I say so that you can argue with me, and then make up "claims" that we made, that nobody ever did.
Let me make this very clear. NOBODY IS SAYING EVERYONE LOSES AT 50% EXACTLY. That's stupid, and you keep ignoring our points about std. dev. and how it's normal to have random results that add up to the house edge. You can pick it apart and only pay attention to certain data if you want, but that's a terrible way to think about things.
"but you won't change the fact that the simulation will lose at 50%."
Over time all state lottery pick-3 games that pay 500 to 1 will average around a 50% profit. In the same 10 years the PA Lottery made a 50% profit, they still probably paid out $1.825 billion in prizes. You don't need to run a simulations when you can look at the actual yearly financial reports.
"You'll be able to pick out one guy who only lost, say 20%, but you'll also be able to find a guy who lost 98%."
Over 5000 players could have averaged $3000 a month for those 10 years and I'm only saying it's possible ONE did. Do understand how much $1.825 billion is and that $3000 every month is only less than 0.02% of it?
"Add them all up, you'll get 50% of money wagered lost."
The PA lottery doesn't care who lost what, they keep their 50% profit and pay the other half to the winners.
"Look, there's no point in me posting if you literally ignore what I say so that you can argue with me, and then make up "claims" that we made, that nobody ever did."
You're saying for every $500 winner, 999 $1 wagers should lose and that's given. Saying more players will lose than win is given too.
"you keep ignoring our points about std. dev. and how it's normal to have random results that add up to the house edge."
Any state lottery knows which numbers are heavily played and Triples in some states reach the aggregate payoff almost every day. Unless the fix is in and the drawings are rigged, they can't control which numbers are drawn. Just the fact you're talking about simulations using QPs must mean you're confusing pick-3 games with the MM and PB where a very conservative 70% to 80% purchases are QPs. Most pick-3 players would be shocked if 10% of pick-3 ticket sales were QPs.
"You can pick it apart and only pay attention to certain data if you want, but that's a terrible way to think about things."
When the discussion is about the possibility at least one player can make an income from lottery winnings, the only necessary data is the pick-3 prize payoffs. If I knew exactly how it was being done, I wouldn't be speculating, but I do know it's not by purchasing five $1 QPs in every drawing for five years.
Louisiana United States
Member #90,212
April 24, 2010
15,354 Posts Online
The simulation really means nothing at all !!! It a simulation of the Games . Their could be a built in bias against sample Predictions to show a lost in simulation. It's a RNG draw not a Mechanical Draw just like Powerball and Mega-Millions games .
mid-Ohio United States
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March 24, 2001
20,272 Posts
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While a simulation shows what will happen overall in a lottery, it also show there will be winners. It's just that the big winners are few and far between and it suggests those winners did nothing different than the losers. Players who continue to do better than the odds might suggest would think differently.
* you don't need to buy every combination, just the winning ones *
Texas United States
Member #55,887
October 23, 2007
17,763 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on May 6, 2013
Rcbbuckeye,
"Somehow I'm thinking no you don't."
No I don't WHAT?
"...this forum is for talking about and sharing ideas and strategies for playing lotteries."
This is the Lottery Discussion forum. This "Thread" is a question. Myself and several others answered the question in the negative, and gave our reasons.
"If you don't have anything to share,..."
I do have something to share, and I've been sharing it.
"...you don't have to say the same thing over and over."
If you meant I "shouldn't" have to say the same things over and over, I agree. Look back over this thread and, with an open mind, determine who has been the most repetitious and relentless in their engaging and challenging of those with an opposing view. (Keep in mind that I'm often responding to 3-5 attackers.) Pay particular attention to the LP replicant called Stack47 who not only relentlessly repeats himself, but ceaselessly engages in obfuscation of the posts he quotes. And then, observe which group has been in attack mode, using crude, gutter language on multiple occassions. You REALLY should ask yourself what motivates these vehement mouth pieces.
"You just aren't relevant, and the crap you keep spouting isn't relevant."
What definition of "relevant" are you relying on for this remark?
--Jimmy4164
No you don't hope he has good security.....hello....are you that stupid???
What I'm trying to say is you are like somebody else here that says the same thing over and over again. Really, everybody, I mean, everybody knows what you have to say. It's nothing new. There are people here that like to try different strategies, and different ideas to win the lottery. That is their entertainment. There is nothing wrong with that. You don't have to, and you shouldn't tell anybody what they're doing is wrong. If you don't agree that there might be a system or strategy that will help someone win, fine. But, dude, give it a rest. You aren't a know it all.
Who the f*** are you to tell anyone they are wrong???
United States
Member #93,943
July 10, 2010
2,180 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by rcbbuckeye on May 6, 2013
No you don't hope he has good security.....hello....are you that stupid???
What I'm trying to say is you are like somebody else here that says the same thing over and over again. Really, everybody, I mean, everybody knows what you have to say. It's nothing new. There are people here that like to try different strategies, and different ideas to win the lottery. That is their entertainment. There is nothing wrong with that. You don't have to, and you shouldn't tell anybody what they're doing is wrong. If you don't agree that there might be a system or strategy that will help someone win, fine. But, dude, give it a rest. You aren't a know it all.
Who the f*** are you to tell anyone they are wrong???
You(rcbbbuckeye) said,
"No you don't hope he has good security.....hello....are you that stupid???"
And you also said, "Who the f*** are you to tell anyone they are wrong???"
Are you normally regarded as a kind, caring, and understanding person, or do you talk this way to your friends and family as well? I hope not, especially for the sake of any children you might have [or have had] to deal with.
First of all, just because RL-RANDOMLOGIC and I have had a few "words" in the past, there is no way I would want him to be robbed. And judging from the fervor, angst, and hatred I've observed in these Forums, I wouldn't put it past someone to go to exremes to procure what they believe to be a winning system. You were WRONG about that, rcbbuckeye.
I've always tried to make it clear that no matter what methods you use to choose your numbers, your chances of winning over the long haul will be no better [or worse] than those who purchase Quick Picks. Since I believe this, and always have, I can't conceive of a time I might have said someone was "wrong" for buying self picks. And this would even include times when I may have composed a somewhat awkward sentence, perhaps like yours that I misunderstood above.
What I HAVE said is that anyone who claims there is a systematic way to reduce the House Edge against them in lottery games, especially Lotto type games, is WRONG!
And when someone asks a loaded question like yours above, where the underlying assumption is an untrue claim about me, I also tell them they are WRONG!
Kentucky United States
Member #32,651
February 14, 2006
10,301 Posts Online
Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on May 6, 2013
OnlyMoney,
The reason I didn't reply is that I haven't viewed anything at the Prediction Boards that challenges the math. And that includes my own P3 and P4 predictions. At the risk of causing yourself some cognitive dissonance, check out how my picks...
...are on par with most others over the first 4 months of 2013.
What you believers need to do is spend a little of your free time with this simulator. Even if it doesn't change your thinking, you might have some relaxing fun.
Note that you can test various "What If" scenarios by changing the default settings. For example, if you Unclick the Quick Pick box, you will be able to change "Your Ticket Numbers" to whatever you want, so you can see if there are any differences between playing your numbers and QuickPicks. Unfortunately, you can't single step your way through the draws, so you won't be able to test your SHORT TERM trend strategies, which some of you rely on. But still, you might get some insights anyway. (You can even test 1,2,3,4,5 (PB=6))
United States
Member #116,263
September 7, 2011
20,243 Posts
Offline
Quote: Originally posted by jimmy4164 on May 6, 2013
You(rcbbbuckeye) said,
"No you don't hope he has good security.....hello....are you that stupid???"
And you also said, "Who the f*** are you to tell anyone they are wrong???"
Are you normally regarded as a kind, caring, and understanding person, or do you talk this way to your friends and family as well? I hope not, especially for the sake of any children you might have [or have had] to deal with.
First of all, just because RL-RANDOMLOGIC and I have had a few "words" in the past, there is no way I would want him to be robbed. And judging from the fervor, angst, and hatred I've observed in these Forums, I wouldn't put it past someone to go to exremes to procure what they believe to be a winning system. You were WRONG about that, rcbbuckeye.
I've always tried to make it clear that no matter what methods you use to choose your numbers, your chances of winning over the long haul will be no better [or worse] than those who purchase Quick Picks. Since I believe this, and always have, I can't conceive of a time I might have said someone was "wrong" for buying self picks. And this would even include times when I may have composed a somewhat awkward sentence, perhaps like yours that I misunderstood above.
What I HAVE said is that anyone who claims there is a systematic way to reduce the House Edge against them in lottery games, especially Lotto type games, is WRONG!
And when someone asks a loaded question like yours above, where the underlying assumption is an untrue claim about me, I also tell them they are WRONG!