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Megamillions and Powerball Games

Topic closed. 205 replies. Last post 3 years ago by SergeM.

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Which Play is the Best Bet?

Powerball [ 9 ]  [24.32%]
Powerball with Powerplay [ 4 ]  [10.81%]
Megamillions [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Megamillions with Megaplier [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 37 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 7 ]  

United States
Member #93947
July 10, 2010
2180 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 11, 2014, 3:26 pm - IP Logged

RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

No matter that tenured mathematicians and scientists sympathetic enough to take the time to talk to you about this will agree with me - YOU KNOW BETTER!  Based on the many self appraisals of your IQ, knowledge, and skills presented here in these forums,  I'm sure you must think Don Catlin and Richard Arnold Epstein should kiss your feet.  I don't think they will.  And Pascal, Fermat and Einstein, some of whose opinions you would reject as well, are not available to pay their respects.

Do you have any more code snippets to demonstrate your prowess in your chosen dialect of BASIC?  Your groupies who have no idea what it means seem to be quite impressed.  In my experience, the ability to program a computer does not necessarily correlate positively with other measures of intelligence nor with a person's contributions to the world in general. Sometimes the correlations are negative. You are a prime example in that you can write programs that should reveal the truth to you, but your Innumeracy won't allow it to happen.

Dream on!

--Jimmy4164

P.S.  As for the statement you might wish you hadn't made...

https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/273424/3553656

P.S.S.  Be forewarned.  There's a LOT of competition out there for Lottery Prediction Software.

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

    United States
    Member #59354
    March 13, 2008
    3972 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 11, 2014, 7:34 pm - IP Logged

    Jimbo

    Many within certain fields are not aware of what's going on in other fields.  Not so much today as in latter

    years but this still exist.  Do a little research in current statistical probabilities for evolution.  There are still

    disciplined people who refuse to give up hope that they will find the missing link regardless of what the

    math says.  I don't disagree with the statistical data in any way, the doubt I have is related to the randomness

    of the drawing.   Are the draws sufficiently random, you say yes I say maybe, maybe not.  You also must know

    that prue random does not exist.   The term "sufficiently" defined by webster "enough to meet the needs of a

    situation or a proposed end."  There seems to be different levels of "sufficient"  The lottery in most cases meets

    these requirements as the odds are defined as selecting at random.   QP's = random vs random, SP's = analysis

    vs random.  Does my analysis put me in the winners circle every time, the answer is NO.  I have however played

    both Qp's and SP's and my SP's do far better.

     

    I also mentioned the zero-chance tickets to shed a little light on reality.  I kind of held off mentioning this in

    a public forum thinking it might cause a uproar but go through your old QP's and make digit counts.  I have

    done this for the big games here in MO.  It's amazing how many QP lines fall within the lower than 5 and

    more than 6.  Most people think the lottery is fair as far as the drawing goes but you have to remember that

    there is another random drawing that takes place every time someone buys a QP.  If random selections do

    follow the population and distribution of the matrix then my QP's should do the same.  My observations is that

    they don't.  These are just my personal observations and I have no way of testing it on a larger scale.  Self picks

    can be a lot of fun and that's why I play them.    I don't suffer "Innumeracy"  I just choose to take off the 

    gloves so to say when I play the lottery.  I am not trying to impress anyone and you may have noticed that I 

    don't even bother responding to your claims of innumeracy, why, because it's not at issue here. 

     

    RL     

    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

      United States
      Member #59354
      March 13, 2008
      3972 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 11, 2014, 11:23 pm - IP Logged

      Hi all

      Here is some code that is ready to go for anyone interested in the lexie to set RNG.  Sorry for the block

      format but when I try to paste code from firefox it gets all messed up.  I figured some might want to

      play around with the code or study how it works.  If you have QB64 already installed then just copy the

      code between the two lines and paste it into a blank page in the QB64 editor and hit [RUN] plus the option

      you want, [Start], [Start detached] or [Make EXE only] 

      The QB64 editor/compiler can be downloaded at http://www.qb64.net/
      I perfer the older SDL version

       

      Note!

      The below code is just a simple cNr or combinations calculator.  The extra code is needed because some

      calculations are returned with a decimal value.  The extra code rounds up to 10 digits right of the decimal

      to the nearest value.  If running a smaller matrix then these lines could be removed.  As it is now it is set

      for a pick 13 of 99 matrix but these can be set to cover any lesser matrix.  This is true of each occurrence

      within the code.

       

      NCR = Factorial(NSET) / (Factorial(PICKT) * Factorial(NSET-PICKT)):
      NCR$ = LTRIM$(STR$(NCR))
      DP1=0
      IF INSTR(NCR$, ".") > 0 THEN DP1=CINT(VAL(MID$(NCR$,INSTR(NCR$, "."), 10)))
      IF INSTR(NCR$, ".") > 0 THEN NCR$=MID$(NCR$,1,(INSTR(NCR$, ".")-1))
      NCR=VAL(NCR$) + DP1

      __________________________________________________________________________________________________

      DIM SHARED PICKT AS INTEGER
      DIM SHARED NSET AS INTEGER
      DIM SHARED NCR AS DOUBLE
      DIM SHARED NC1 AS DOUBLE
      DIM SHARED LEX1 AS DOUBLE
      DIM SHARED LEXHI AS DOUBLE
      DIM SHARED DP1 AS INTEGER
      DIM SHARED L1 AS INTEGER

      'I have tested the lexie converter up to 13 lexie digits, However in test it seems to handle a 13 - 99 matrix but
      'has not been tested to this level.  A 13-99 matrix would have  6,186,171,974,825,304 sets and 16 lexie digits.

      'The next two variables below are the matrix values' The converter is limited to a pick-13 of 99 so don't go above these or
      'you will get errors

      'Pickt can be set from 2 to 13.

      PICKT = 13   'numbers in each set
      NSET = 99    'total numbers in pool

      COUNT=0
      time1$=time$

      'calculate total combinations in matrix
      NCR = Factorial(NSET) / (Factorial(PICKT) * Factorial(NSET-PICKT)):
      NCR$ = LTRIM$(STR$(NCR))
      DP1=0
      IF INSTR(NCR$, ".") > 0 THEN DP1=CINT(VAL(MID$(NCR$,INSTR(NCR$, "."), 10)))
      IF INSTR(NCR$, ".") > 0 THEN NCR$=MID$(NCR$,1,(INSTR(NCR$, ".")-1))
      NCR=VAL(NCR$) + DP1

      locate 2, 2: PRINT "Press any key to stop RNG"

      NEXTPAIR:
      COUNT=COUNT+1

      'stop code, exit on key press
      IF INKEY$ <> "" THEN GOTO ENDSIM


      'RNG
      LEX1=INT(RND*NCR)+1:

      'clear/set variables
      QP1$="":SET1$="":L1=NSET:LEXHI=(NCR-LEX1):PICK1=PICKT

      NEXTCALC:
      'calculate combinatons remaining
      NC1 = Factorial(L1)/(Factorial(PICK1)*Factorial(L1-PICK1)):
      NC1$ = LTRIM$(STR$(NC1)):DP1=0
      IF INSTR(NC1$,".") > 0 THEN DP1=CINT(VAL(MID$(NC1$,INSTR(NC1$, "."), 10)))
      IF INSTR(NC1$,".") > 0 THEN NC1$=MID$(NC1$,1,(INSTR(NC1$,".")-1))
      NC1=VAL(NC1$)+DP1

      'main algorithm conversion code
      DO UNTIL NC1 <= LEXHI
      L1=L1-1:IF L1 <= (PICK1-1) THEN EXIT DO
      NC1 = Factorial(L1)/(Factorial(PICK1)*Factorial(L1-PICK1)):
      NC1$ = LTRIM$(STR$(NC1))
      DP1=0
      IF INSTR(NC1$, ".") > 0 THEN DP1=CINT(VAL(MID$(NC1$,INSTR(NC1$, "."), 10)))
      IF INSTR(NC1$, ".") > 0 THEN NC1$=MID$(NC1$,1,(INSTR(NC1$, ".")-1))
      NC1=VAL(NC1$) + DP1
      LOOP

      'pad single digits with a zero
      IF (NSET - L1) < 10 THEN SET1$=SET1$+"0"+LTRIM$(STR$(NSET-L1))+" "
      IF (NSET - L1) > 9 THEN SET1$=SET1$+LTRIM$(STR$(NSET-L1))+" "

      'check to see if conversion complete
      LEXHI=LEXHI-NC1: PICK1=PICK1-1
      IF PICK1 > 0 THEN GOTO NEXTCALC
      QP1$=SET1$

      'print quickpick set to screen, comment out to increase speed of the program
      locate 1,2: PRINT ""; QP1$; ""
      GOTO NEXTPAIR  'start over

      ENDSIM:
      cls
      locate 1, 2: print "Total sets generated ->"; count; ""
      locate 2, 2: print "Start time ->"; time1$; ""
      locate 3, 2: print "End time ->"; time$
      locate 4, 2: PRINT "Press any key to exit"
      sleep
      system

      'This function is needed to factor numbers greater than 30
      FUNCTION Factorial# (n AS DOUBLE)
      CONST maxNToCache = 99
      STATIC resultCache() AS DOUBLE
      STATIC FIRSTCALL AS INTEGER
      IF firstCall = 0 THEN
      firstCall = -1
      REDIM resultCache(maxNToCache) AS DOUBLE
      resultCache(0) = 1
      resultCache(1) = 1
      resultCache(2) = 2
      END IF
      IF n <= maxNToCache THEN
      IF resultCache(n) <> 0 THEN
      Factorial = resultCache(n)
      EXIT FUNCTION
      END IF
      END IF
      resultCache(n) = INT(n) * Factorial(INT(n) - 1)
      Factorial = resultCache(n)
      END FUNCTION
      ________________________________________________________________________________________________________

      Have fun

      RL

      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

        Avatar
        New Jersey
        United States
        Member #21206
        September 4, 2005
        949 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: April 14, 2014, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

        To answer Jimmy's question about which game I voted in the poll, I would say this:

        The way I play, outside the poll, is by a calculation of the expectation values, which vary with prizes.

         Megamillions, which is in the process of total destruction as a game, reduced the expectation value for lower prizes significantly with the matrix change, but I was surprised that the game actually produced an expectation value close to 1.00, this after an unprecedented number of draws.

        The game is definitely in a tail spin, and it would be interesting to compare the average sales per draw with the situation that existed before the $2 powerball, after the $2 powerball but before the MM matrix change, and after the recent matrix change.

        I could do this from data I have, but haven't bothered to do it.

        MM will probably not have a reasonable expectation value for many, many months, if at all.

        I enjoyed the simulator, by the way, and regret that it's not there anymore.


          United States
          Member #93947
          July 10, 2010
          2180 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 14, 2014, 8:07 pm - IP Logged

          Prob988,

          "The way I play, outside the poll, is by a calculation of the expectation values, which vary with prizes."

          This is a reasonable approach.  I think RJOh does this too.  What EV triggers a buy for you?

          "The game is definitely in a tail spin, and it would be interesting to compare the average sales per draw with the situation that existed before the $2 powerball, after the $2 powerball but before the MM matrix change, and after the recent matrix change.  I could do this from data I have, but haven't bothered to do it."

          RJOh may have this info too.

          "I enjoyed the simulator, by the way, and regret that it's not there anymore."

          I'm disappointed too and haven't been able to find out what happened.  It was referenced from so many places that maybe  their server was getting overworked.  Or maybe it was hurting the bottom line of some powerful interests.  Wink

          --Jimmy4164

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

            United States
            Member #59354
            March 13, 2008
            3972 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: April 14, 2014, 8:51 pm - IP Logged

            Jimbe

            What powerful interest?  Are you saying that there is some dark group out there who feels they must hide

            the proof that the game functions as intended and that people playing QP's can expect their winnings to fall

            very close to the PUBLISHED ODDS?  Maybe the author is in the process of updating the program or his/her

            server is down for repairs.   I don't think the server was overwhelmed by the few people here that took the

            time to use it, but on second thought the server may be an old p-4 system they had laying around.  Why run

            simulations anyway, the math is already there.  My big question is why one as enlightened as you think you

            are, would suggest a QP simulator as a means of disproving system play?

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              Avatar
              New Jersey
              United States
              Member #21206
              September 4, 2005
              949 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: April 14, 2014, 10:52 pm - IP Logged

              Prob988,

              "The way I play, outside the poll, is by a calculation of the expectation values, which vary with prizes."

              This is a reasonable approach.  I think RJOh does this too.  What EV triggers a buy for you?

              "The game is definitely in a tail spin, and it would be interesting to compare the average sales per draw with the situation that existed before the $2 powerball, after the $2 powerball but before the MM matrix change, and after the recent matrix change.  I could do this from data I have, but haven't bothered to do it."

              RJOh may have this info too.

              "I enjoyed the simulator, by the way, and regret that it's not there anymore."

              I'm disappointed too and haven't been able to find out what happened.  It was referenced from so many places that maybe  their server was getting overworked.  Or maybe it was hurting the bottom line of some powerful interests.  Wink

              --Jimmy4164

              I will sometimes buy a ticket or two, just for fun, when the EV is less than 0.5, and may buy a few more on a drawing where it is between 0.5 and 0.8 - I regard the lottery as a fun way to pay taxes - and we play a little more seriously above that figure.    It now requires MM to have something like 20 draws to approach that figure, 2 and 1/2 months.

              I believe that casinos generally have expectation values of around 0.9, although I don't go to them.    This high expectation value probably feeds a feedback loop that keeps people playing and the casinos making money.   I don't know.

              It does seem to me that the design of the MM game, with it's very low payouts on smaller prizes, and longer odds of doing anything other than breaking even, may well backfire.  The feedback loop, to me at least, seems broken, as the simulator showed. Arguably, the $2 Powerball game may have backfired, inasmuch as it messed up MM, at one time a nearly equal source of revenue for most states.

              But the lotteries don't ask my advice, and they do what they want.    Many years ago, the California lottery tried to raise the odds beyond a certain point and it back fired.   They went from a 6/49 game to a 6/54 game and retreated to a 6/51 game.

              People often point to the extraordinary odds of the lottery and indicate that anyone who plays must do so because they can't do math, but actually the game is not quite as impossible as reality itself, as anyone who has studied, say, statistical mechanics will know.

              There is also a biological analogy:

              I note that, even ignoring the probability that one's parents will even meet, never mind have a relationship, at the moment of conception the odds of a particular genome resulting is 2^46 = (approx) 1 in 70 trillion.    When one considers that each parent was the result of a 1 in 70 trillion outcome, the lottery, as awful as the odds are, seem rather generous.

              Or that's my take, anyway.

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
                Member #59354
                March 13, 2008
                3972 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: April 15, 2014, 12:34 am - IP Logged

                Prob988

                Sorry for jimbo's delay in getting back to you, he has to read up on statistical mechanics.

                RL

                Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


                  United States
                  Member #93947
                  July 10, 2010
                  2180 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: April 15, 2014, 2:10 am - IP Logged

                  I will sometimes buy a ticket or two, just for fun, when the EV is less than 0.5, and may buy a few more on a drawing where it is between 0.5 and 0.8 - I regard the lottery as a fun way to pay taxes - and we play a little more seriously above that figure.    It now requires MM to have something like 20 draws to approach that figure, 2 and 1/2 months.

                  I believe that casinos generally have expectation values of around 0.9, although I don't go to them.    This high expectation value probably feeds a feedback loop that keeps people playing and the casinos making money.   I don't know.

                  It does seem to me that the design of the MM game, with it's very low payouts on smaller prizes, and longer odds of doing anything other than breaking even, may well backfire.  The feedback loop, to me at least, seems broken, as the simulator showed. Arguably, the $2 Powerball game may have backfired, inasmuch as it messed up MM, at one time a nearly equal source of revenue for most states.

                  But the lotteries don't ask my advice, and they do what they want.    Many years ago, the California lottery tried to raise the odds beyond a certain point and it back fired.   They went from a 6/49 game to a 6/54 game and retreated to a 6/51 game.

                  People often point to the extraordinary odds of the lottery and indicate that anyone who plays must do so because they can't do math, but actually the game is not quite as impossible as reality itself, as anyone who has studied, say, statistical mechanics will know.

                  There is also a biological analogy:

                  I note that, even ignoring the probability that one's parents will even meet, never mind have a relationship, at the moment of conception the odds of a particular genome resulting is 2^46 = (approx) 1 in 70 trillion.    When one considers that each parent was the result of a 1 in 70 trillion outcome, the lottery, as awful as the odds are, seem rather generous.

                  Or that's my take, anyway.

                  Prob888,

                  "I regard the lottery as a fun way to pay taxes..."

                  That's a good way to look at it, especially if your state is using it wisely.  I think education is the best place to put it to use, and some states do. Education in Norway is free from Kindergarten to PhD, and it seems to work for them.

                  "I believe that casinos generally have expectation values of around 0.9, although I don't go to them.    This high expectation value probably feeds a feedback loop that keeps people playing and the casinos making money.   I don't know."

                  I've often wondered how the lottery does so well with a 0.5.  If they set this point based on bottom line profit for the lottery, wouldn't you think the point of diminishing returns would be higher, at least 0.6 or 0.7?    Before state lotteries the "Numbers" business seemed to do well with higher payouts.  I've posted simulation results here of Pick-3 games and with 0.5 there are still a sizable number out of a million who come out ahead even after 10 years.  As you move the prize up from $500 that number of people increases dramatically because of the shape of the distribution curve.  But maybe they've studied this with Focus Groups [of sorts] and determined 0.5 was optimal.

                  "I note that, even ignoring the probability that one's parents will even meet, never mind have a relationship, at the moment of conception the odds of a particular genome resulting is 2^46 = (approx) 1 in 70 trillion.    When one considers that each parent was the result of a 1 in 70 trillion outcome, the lottery, as awful as the odds are, seem rather generous."

                  I love it!  Smile

                  --Jimmy4164

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                    United States
                    Member #59354
                    March 13, 2008
                    3972 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 15, 2014, 6:26 am - IP Logged

                    I was just wondering what the odds were for a two headed jackass.   Anyone who decides rather 

                    or not to play a game with odds of 1 in 258,890,850 based on a EV of .5 to .7  should play for fun.  My

                    question is, if it's so much fun then why wait or why just a couple bucks?   It's a fun way to pay my

                    taxes, 30 to 50 cents at a time for every $1.00 ticket I purchase, <---- genus at work. 

                     

                    The odds mentioned above of 70 trillion to one for one particular genome but why even mention this.

                    What are the odds for two people meeting then producing a offspring.  I am just thinking off the top

                    of my head here but I don't think it's anywhere near 1 in 70 trillion.  This is the kind of crap which is

                    responsible for evolution still being taught in schools.

                     

                    It's also a bit funny to me how easily the online simulator is accepted without so much as a small sample

                    of data.  Just like above you see what you want to see and nothing else.  My simulator is dismissed without

                    so much as asking for a data sample. Hmmmmm, is this what you call science?  What a fraud.  The first test

                    of any RNG should be in the area of population and distribution.  If the output does not follow the universe

                    in P&D then the RNG is not a RNG.  If a RNG was to produce many more sets with fewer than 5 or greater than

                    6 digit sets for a 5-39 then I would love to play that game and the EV would mean nothing, that is, if it ever had

                    any value in being applied to a mega JP lottery game. 

                     

                    I think I will just enjoy winning way more than the odds suggest and put your "head in the sand" mentality behind

                    me where it belongs. 

                     

                    RL

                    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                      Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                      Los Angeles, California
                      United States
                      Member #103813
                      January 5, 2011
                      1530 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 15, 2014, 10:00 am - IP Logged

                      To answer Jimmy's question about which game I voted in the poll, I would say this:

                      The way I play, outside the poll, is by a calculation of the expectation values, which vary with prizes.

                       Megamillions, which is in the process of total destruction as a game, reduced the expectation value for lower prizes significantly with the matrix change, but I was surprised that the game actually produced an expectation value close to 1.00, this after an unprecedented number of draws.

                      The game is definitely in a tail spin, and it would be interesting to compare the average sales per draw with the situation that existed before the $2 powerball, after the $2 powerball but before the MM matrix change, and after the recent matrix change.

                      I could do this from data I have, but haven't bothered to do it.

                      MM will probably not have a reasonable expectation value for many, many months, if at all.

                      I enjoyed the simulator, by the way, and regret that it's not there anymore.

                      I could do this from data I have, but haven't bothered to do it.

                      So you come to the conclusion that MM is in a tailspin without looking at the data? Well that's real scientific, isn't it. Confused

                      I have the data too, and have posted graphs before showing that, far from a tailspin, MM with the new matrix has arrested the dive, and is now climbing for altitude on an upward trajectory.

                      Not sure why you're still so hell bent with declaring this "MM is evil and is a failure" soapbox of yours. Just observe and report. I would advise you to get over it.

                        Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                        Los Angeles, California
                        United States
                        Member #103813
                        January 5, 2011
                        1530 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: April 15, 2014, 10:05 am - IP Logged

                        I was just wondering what the odds were for a two headed jackass.   Anyone who decides rather 

                        or not to play a game with odds of 1 in 258,890,850 based on a EV of .5 to .7  should play for fun.  My

                        question is, if it's so much fun then why wait or why just a couple bucks?   It's a fun way to pay my

                        taxes, 30 to 50 cents at a time for every $1.00 ticket I purchase, <---- genus at work. 

                         

                        The odds mentioned above of 70 trillion to one for one particular genome but why even mention this.

                        What are the odds for two people meeting then producing a offspring.  I am just thinking off the top

                        of my head here but I don't think it's anywhere near 1 in 70 trillion.  This is the kind of crap which is

                        responsible for evolution still being taught in schools.

                         

                        It's also a bit funny to me how easily the online simulator is accepted without so much as a small sample

                        of data.  Just like above you see what you want to see and nothing else.  My simulator is dismissed without

                        so much as asking for a data sample. Hmmmmm, is this what you call science?  What a fraud.  The first test

                        of any RNG should be in the area of population and distribution.  If the output does not follow the universe

                        in P&D then the RNG is not a RNG.  If a RNG was to produce many more sets with fewer than 5 or greater than

                        6 digit sets for a 5-39 then I would love to play that game and the EV would mean nothing, that is, if it ever had

                        any value in being applied to a mega JP lottery game. 

                         

                        I think I will just enjoy winning way more than the odds suggest and put your "head in the sand" mentality behind

                        me where it belongs. 

                         

                        RL

                        Anyone who decides rather or not to play a game with odds of 1 in 258,890,850 based on a EV of .5 to .7  should play for fun. 

                        I agree.

                        EV can be used in gambling to compare different games, bets, or similar games/bets at different venues. But I've said this before and will say it again, using EV on a draws of lottery jackpot game is just a foolish endeavor. The EV for MM/MP is .5 and any other number is garbage.(even .5 is somewhat garbage)

                          Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                          Los Angeles, California
                          United States
                          Member #103813
                          January 5, 2011
                          1530 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: April 15, 2014, 11:20 am - IP Logged

                          Prob988,

                          "The way I play, outside the poll, is by a calculation of the expectation values, which vary with prizes."

                          This is a reasonable approach.  I think RJOh does this too.  What EV triggers a buy for you?

                          "The game is definitely in a tail spin, and it would be interesting to compare the average sales per draw with the situation that existed before the $2 powerball, after the $2 powerball but before the MM matrix change, and after the recent matrix change.  I could do this from data I have, but haven't bothered to do it."

                          RJOh may have this info too.

                          "I enjoyed the simulator, by the way, and regret that it's not there anymore."

                          I'm disappointed too and haven't been able to find out what happened.  It was referenced from so many places that maybe  their server was getting overworked.  Or maybe it was hurting the bottom line of some powerful interests.  Wink

                          --Jimmy4164

                          I'm disappointed too and haven't been able to find out what happened.  It was referenced from so many places that maybe  their server was getting overworked.  Or maybe it was hurting the bottom line of some powerful interests.

                          Yeah, I wonder if he got a cease and desist from *someone* about the simulator. Wink

                          I last ran it back in December when the JP was high.(that's the snapshot I posted) And I actually contacted Richard back in early November to let him know of the MM matrix change, and he updated the applet accordingly. Too bad it's gone.

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                            NEW YORK
                            United States
                            Member #90535
                            April 29, 2010
                            11982 Posts
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                            Posted: April 15, 2014, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                            No matter that tenured mathematicians and scientists sympathetic enough to take the time to talk to you about this will agree with me - YOU KNOW BETTER!  Based on the many self appraisals of your IQ, knowledge, and skills presented here in these forums,  I'm sure you must think Don Catlin and Richard Arnold Epstein should kiss your feet.  I don't think they will.  And Pascal, Fermat and Einstein, some of whose opinions you would reject as well, are not available to pay their respects.

                            Do you have any more code snippets to demonstrate your prowess in your chosen dialect of BASIC?  Your groupies who have no idea what it means seem to be quite impressed.  In my experience, the ability to program a computer does not necessarily correlate positively with other measures of intelligence nor with a person's contributions to the world in general. Sometimes the correlations are negative. You are a prime example in that you can write programs that should reveal the truth to you, but your Innumeracy won't allow it to happen.

                            Dream on!

                            --Jimmy4164

                            P.S.  As for the statement you might wish you hadn't made...

                            https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/273424/3553656

                            P.S.S.  Be forewarned.  There's a LOT of competition out there for Lottery Prediction Software.

                            Powerball jackpot is $110 Million. Should I spend $2 or $10 on the PB?

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                            PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                              rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                              Texas
                              United States
                              Member #55889
                              October 23, 2007
                              5604 Posts
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                              Posted: April 15, 2014, 6:18 pm - IP Logged

                              Powerball jackpot is $110 Million. Should I spend $2 or $10 on the PB?

                              Heck....

                              might as well spend $70. Each number gets played at least once, and each PB number can be played once.

                              Guaranteed to get back at least $4.

                              CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                              A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                                 
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