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Megamillions and Powerball Games

Topic closed. 205 replies. Last post 3 years ago by SergeM.

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Which Play is the Best Bet?

Powerball [ 9 ]  [24.32%]
Powerball with Powerplay [ 4 ]  [10.81%]
Megamillions [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Megamillions with Megaplier [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 37 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 7 ]  
RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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Posted: March 31, 2014, 6:29 pm - IP Logged

Jimbo

To make it easy lets say that we have 100 balls
of which 75 are red and 25 are blue.

Let me see, Hmmmm.  I know that 7.5 out of
every 10 attempts a red ball will be drawn
and 2.5 out of every 10 will be blue.

If I pick red then the odds will be 75/100
or 75% that I will match the correct color.

The chance of matching both the color and value
are 1/100 = 1% 

If I choose blue then I expect to be correct
concerning color 2.5 out of every 10 attempts
or 25/100 = 25%

The chance of matching both the color blue and
value is 1/100 or 1%

The odds are exactly the same regardless of the
the color because we are picking one value out
of a pool of 100. The chance of selecting both
color and value are exactly the same, 1%.

We both know this after all it's a very simple
mathematical 5th grade concept.

Why I would choose to play red is based on a number
of insights that I would apply to the process.  I
know that if I play all blue then on average I will
have a zero percent chance of hitting a JP 7.5 of
every 10 games.

If I play red then I will have a zero percent chance
of hitting a jp 2.5  games on average out every 10

games played.

This is a betting stragety.  If I bet all blue then
75% of the money spent will not go towards a JP win.

It does not say that by playing red all the time
will net me a JP but that 75% of my bets will be
applied towards a JP win. 

If I could predict red or blue then I would play only
the blue draws where my money would produce
the best chance of winning a JP. 

Everyone knows that the odds would improve greatly if
the pool could be reduced by 75% before you make your
selection. duh.

The bottom line is that I cannot predict when red or
blue will hit so I play red knowing that the bulk or
75% is going toward a possible JP win. If playing
blue then only 25% percent of my bets goes toward a
possible JP hit.

Now that I have decided that the best bet is on red
then I have to decide on a number value to go along
with the color.  Just as I can't predict red or blue
I also can't predict which value to match up with the
color so I use methods that are very similar to the
betting strategy. 

By knowing the population and distribution of the
value I am using as a filter I can also make an
informed choice for it also. 

You have heard me say here on LP in past post that
I use markers. These are useful but not always correct
and when they hit I like to think it's a pattern that
continued but also admit that they could be chance.

The bottom line is that there are logical choices that
can be applied to a pseudo random set generated from a
finite or closed system.  If I could not calculate how
many and the expected number of times one value hits vs
another then I would not play at all. The odds without
micro analysis are not acceptable.

You say that a QP has the same odds as any set I generate
which is true for a single drawing but applied over several
draws it's not the case but that statement is not always
true because a pseudo random set could have all the elements
of a smart pick. 

Picking my own numbers ensures me that I get good quality
lines, and just eating the 2.5 bule draws.  A QP does not.

I also don't play every game as I still try to make my best

choices on red and blue.  Sometimes it woeks sometimes not



RL
         
 

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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    Posted: March 31, 2014, 6:50 pm - IP Logged

    Stack

    It's funny to me that one holding a certain view can attack the views of others year after year

    and then expect people not to return the favor. 

    RL

    When someone says a coin flip is a 50/50 bet, it doesn't mean there are 50 heads and 50 tails. They're talking about the two different outcomes and not the odds for or against either outcome. Every time I purchased a MM or PB ticket the results were I either won or lost regardless of the odds for or against winning anything. Maybe you and me just use common sense an don't find it necessary to nit-pic someone else's perception.

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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      Posted: March 31, 2014, 7:54 pm - IP Logged

      Stack

      If life was just that simple.

      RL

      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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        Posted: March 31, 2014, 8:56 pm - IP Logged

        Stack47,

        You said, "I've never discussed or debated gambling odds or payouts with either on LP..."

        Since when is it necessary to debate with a published person "on LP" to conclude that you know more than them?  I don't think it is, and apparently you didn't either when you made this remark last summer...

        "I taught Catlin how to play Craps but he still makes those hard way bets."

        https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/258205/3168858

        --Jimmy4164

        "Since when is it necessary to debate with a published person "on LP" to conclude that you know more than them?"

        Because they are not here and I don't think you're all here most of the time either. Skyline69 said  "My odds are 50/50   I have a 1 out of 2 chance of winning. Right?  Your either going to win or lose" and you go off a tangent about what you believe your "published people" would say about Skyline69's remarks.

        Regardless of the fact over 93% of MM tickets will lose, the logic is still sound because each individual ticket can only be a winner or a loser. We know on average only 1 out of every 14.71 tickets wins something, but as usual it doesn't stop you from again saying what most of us already know.

        Try using some common sense; if your "published people" are not in the conversation, how can anyone conclude what the know or don't know?


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          Posted: March 31, 2014, 9:20 pm - IP Logged

          Stack47,

          You said, "I've never discussed or debated gambling odds or payouts with either on LP..."

          Since when is it necessary to debate with a published person "on LP" to conclude that you know more than them?  I don't think it is, and apparently you didn't either when you made this remark last summer...

          "I taught Catlin how to play Craps but he still makes those hard way bets."

          https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/258205/3168858

          --Jimmy4164

          Stack47,

          You really like to try to change the subject, don't you?   I said you thought you knew more than Don Catlin  and you challenged me.

          Are you denying that you said,

          "I taught Catlin how to play Craps but he still makes those hard way bets."

          --Jimmy4164

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            Posted: March 31, 2014, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

            Stack47,

            You really like to try to change the subject, don't you?   I said you thought you knew more than Don Catlin  and you challenged me.

            Are you denying that you said,

            "I taught Catlin how to play Craps but he still makes those hard way bets."

            --Jimmy4164

            "I said you thought you knew more than Don Catlin  and you challenged me."

            How do you know what "I think"?

            "I taught Catlin how to play Craps but he still makes those hard way bets."

            Apparently your knowledge of gambling isn't enough to understand what that means.


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              Posted: March 31, 2014, 11:01 pm - IP Logged

              "I said you thought you knew more than Don Catlin  and you challenged me."

              How do you know what "I think"?

              "I taught Catlin how to play Craps but he still makes those hard way bets."

              Apparently your knowledge of gambling isn't enough to understand what that means.

              Stack47,

              Now we're getting somewhere.  Are you admiting then that in terms of Gaming knowledge, Don Catlin is superior to you?

              --Jimmy4164


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                Posted: March 31, 2014, 11:54 pm - IP Logged

                If we left the Numbers on the Balls, the Odds, and the Payouts for a given game as they are but randomly colored 75% of the balls RED and the other 25% BLUE, would you avoid betting on the BLUE balls because they are less likely to be drawn?

                Anyone Interested,
                In typical RL style, he takes a simple attempt by me to focus on one issue and changes it into a long winded discussion of different ideas.  I really tried hard to present this as simply as possible, really hard.  But I guess not hard enough.  I thought I clearly stated that the Numbering on the balls, the Odds, and the Payouts of a hypothetical game were to remain unchanged, at least I think I did.  You decide.  My proposed change was purely cosmetic in that I suggested we color the balls in an arbitrary way.  I in no way implied that the colors were to be used in the determination of winners in the game. Remember, I said the balls were randomly colored.  Correct?  But you see, RL-RANDOMLOGIC is so convinced that the ARBITRARY labeling of lottery balls influences their probabilities of being drawn that he quickly started calculating new ones to include the color.  Let's try another approach...

                An alternative way to view these games is to imagine a large hopper where each ball is associated with one combination in the matrix of the game.  In the case of the Missouri Show Me Cash there would be 575757 balls in the hopper.  This would probably have to be an unwieldy 12 foot diameter sphere, but I'm sure you can use your imagination to envision a half million balls furiousely blowing around in chaos.  A typical ball might have an inscription like, say, "9-10-23-32-39", or "1-2-11-12-21".  If we wanted to save space and ink on the balls we could arbitrarily rename these 2 examples to "910233239" and "12111221".  OK?  Let's assume that the hopper is a marvel of mechanical engineering which spits out balls so randomly that even RL-RANDOMLOGIC would be impressed!  On drawing day, as the hopper is doing its thing, can you think of any reason why either one of these 2 example balls would be more likely to be drawn than the other?  Assuming you can't, let's move on...

                A machine like this might be boring for the audience since it would be a blur of [probably] white balls with faint flashes of black ink.  If officials wanted to spice it up a bit, they might ask the people in the back room responsible for keeping the balls clean, tidy and properly weighted and balanced for ideas.  Who knows, one of these people could be named RL, and they might say, "Hey, why don't we color the balls with 5 to 6 unique digits GREEN and those with less than 5 or greater than 6, RED?"  You can imagine how much more colorful the drawings would be, and it would have the added advantage of helping to dispel doubts that the balls might not be mixing well enough.  The ball described above starting with "9" would be colored GREEN, and the other one, RED.  Now let me ask you the same question as above with this colorful set of balls in mind.  Can you think of any reason why either one of these 2 example balls would be more likely to be drawn than the other?  I hope we don't hear from the "this isn't practical crowd."  This is a mind experiment, not a proposal for the Lottery.

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC has another similar filter that he thinks gives him an edge.  He sums the 5 numbers in his sets and favors the ones whose sums are the most frequent.  It's beyond me why he can't see how ludicrous these ideas are, but he persists, even when well known Gaming experts debunk his ideas.  It's actually an Innumeracy problem and I sometimes feel sorry for him, but not when he gets nasty.  And Stack47 has no more insight than him.

                http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/lottery-nonsense-8694

                --Jimmy416

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                  Posted: April 1, 2014, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

                  Jimbo

                  Just another attempt by you to muddy the waters.   You should be ashamed of yourself.

                  I hope everyone here has seen the truth.   This so called reality we live in has a few more

                  dimensions then jimbo is willing to admit.   After all 4 years is a lot of time to have wasted

                  trying to convince everyone that system play is a waste of time.

                   

                  Answer this question,  For a fair 5-39 matrix if you play sets that have fewer than 5 or more

                  than 6 digits, on average you have zero chance of hitting a jack-pot 7.4 out of every 10 attempts?

                  Zero chance not in any one drawing but over a span of 10 games.

                  [YES]  [NO]

                   

                  If you say yes then it proves my point that system play is valid, If you say no then, well, to put it

                  simply you are wrong.

                   

                  Your matrix thing is also way off track.  To make your  point you have to draw a big picture of a hopper

                  large enough to fill a small room.  In my world all 575757 don't take up any room at all because they don't

                  have mass.   Next you paint a picture of one set falling out of this very large hopper which shows that you

                  missed the point again.  What I do is sort and analyze the 575757 so that I get the best bang the buck so

                  to say. 

                   

                  Here is where you muddy the water.  I play first to win a JP and second to pick up lower prize paying tickets. 

                  You don't seem to be able to differentiate between the two.   Let me ask you this, if it's true that one can

                  increase their chance of winning a JP by playing 5 and 6 digit lines then what makes you think there are not

                  others methods which have a simular effects?

                   

                  To say the odds for a single 5-39 game JP win are 1 in 575757 is a fact.  Everyone knows this or at least I

                  hope they do.  Regardless of the method used, RNG or ball dropper,  assuming it is fair the sets drawn will

                  mimic very closely the population and distribution of the matrix.   I study the matrix to gain insight into what

                  to play.   Studying the matrix allows one to see things from different vantage points because you are not limited

                  to  tracking 39 numbers.  Have you ever seen the movie Vantage point, if not you should watch it.       

                   

                   

                  RL

                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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                    Posted: April 1, 2014, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

                    Stack47,

                    Now we're getting somewhere.  Are you admiting then that in terms of Gaming knowledge, Don Catlin is superior to you?

                    --Jimmy4164

                    The question here is your gambling knowledge or to be more correct, your lack of gaming knowledge.

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                      Posted: April 1, 2014, 5:24 pm - IP Logged

                      Jimbo

                      You said

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC has another similar filter that he thinks gives him an edge.  He sums the 5 numbers in his sets and favors the ones whose sums are the most frequent.  It's beyond me why he can't see how ludicrous these ideas are, but he persists, even when well known Gaming experts debunk his ideas.  It's actually an Innumeracy problem and I sometimes feel sorry for him, but not when he gets nasty.

                      I don't use sums, not that it's a bad filter. The sum that takes up the greatest population

                      within a matrix will also show more than any other sum.  The deciding factor would depend

                      on rather or not I could find markers to indicate that the next draw could fall within a particular

                      range.

                       

                      RL

                      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                        Posted: April 1, 2014, 8:23 pm - IP Logged

                        Stack

                        He feels sorry for me when I am not being mean.  He says my meger attempts are ludicrous.

                        Here are a few synonyms.

                        absurd

                        ridiculous

                        farcical

                        laughable

                        risible

                        preposterous

                        foolish

                        mad

                        insane

                        idiotic

                        stupid

                        inane

                        silly

                        asinine

                        nonsensical

                        Now who's being mean.  Dress it up any way you want to jimbo your not so nice yourself.  As for feeling
                        sorry for me, save it for yourself.  Don't need your pity either just a simple yes or no to my question above. Dumb-ass
                        RL
                         

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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                          Posted: April 2, 2014, 2:05 am - IP Logged

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                          You seem upset.  You should monitor your blood pressure.

                          Your question is what's called a "loaded question."

                          Sorry, I'm not gonna' bite.

                          "A loaded question or complex question fallacy is a question which contains a controversial or unjustified assumption (e.g., a presumption of guilt).[1]"

                          "Aside from being an informal fallacy depending on usage, such questions may be used as a rhetorical tool: the question attempts to limit direct replies to be those that serve the questioner's agenda.[2] The traditional example is the question 'Have you stopped beating your wife?' Whether the respondent answers yes or no, he will admit to having a wife, and having beaten her at some time in the past. Thus, these facts are presupposed by the question, and in this case an entrapment, because it narrows the respondent to a single answer, and the fallacy of many questions has been committed.[2] The fallacy relies upon context for its effect: the fact that a question presupposes something does not in itself make the question fallacious. Only when some of these presuppositions are not necessarily agreed to by the person who is asked the question does the argument containing them become fallacious.[2] Hence the same question may be loaded in one context, but not in the other. For example the previous question would not be loaded if it was asked during a trial in which the defendant has already admitted to beating his wife.[2]"

                          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loaded_question

                           

                          While you're waiting for me to reply with something that doesn't contain a citation, which I know you dislike, perhaps you could look back and try answering one of the many questions of mine that you've ignored.  Some of them are right here in this thread.  If they're too tough, here's an easier one:

                          Since there are many more Pick-3 Draws containing 2-3 digits (900) than 1 digit (10), to be consistent with your beliefs on the larger matrix Lotto games, can we assume that you will claim that people making straight bets on one of the 10 numbers below will win far less often than those people betting on the other 900 options?

                          [000,111,222,333,444,555,666,777,888,999]

                          [Yes]  (Why?)

                          [No]   (Why Not?)

                          Stay tuned...

                          --Jimmy4164

                          P.S.  BTW, what was your answer to the Poll Question of this Thread?

                            SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                            Posted: April 2, 2014, 5:41 am - IP Logged

                            The question doesn't work well on me, I would answer yes or no, leaving the person asking with a maybe wrong answer, because he just was forcing one. I won't go further into language, logic or psychology.

                            For some the question always is, when do we eat?

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                              Posted: April 2, 2014, 11:24 am - IP Logged

                              Jimbo, jimbo,jimbo

                              If someone were to ask me if I had stopped beating my wife, my reply would be, "I have never beaten my wife"

                              If you feel squeezed in by the question put forth then you could say, I will have to research the matter and get

                              back to you at a later time.   I did not offer the third option because I showed the figures on which my claims are

                              based.  Now, if I had seen you beating your wife at some point then the question would be reduced

                              to two possible answers.  [yes] or [no] 

                               

                              This just shows your mode of operation.  Either prove or disprove it is all I am asking.  If you can't write the software

                              needed to test it I could help you out there also, just ask.

                               

                              I suggest that system players add this to their toolbox of options.  I don't say that using this will automatically make

                              them the next big winner.  I say, If I  were to play sets with less than 5 or more than 6 total digits then $750.00 of every

                              $1000.00 spent would not be going towards a JP win.  It also does not say that a less than 5 or more than 6 digit 

                              play has no chance of winning.  If I were going to play static lines then I might consider playing  2-digit lines because

                              I could cover all possible lines with 6 bets.  Most would not play the set 1-2-3-4-5 not because it has no chance of winning

                              but because they would have to share the JP with maybe hundreds of others who play that set every game. 

                               

                              I think the average person here understands the concept, it's funny you can't. 

                               

                              RL

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                                 
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