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Megamillions and Powerball Games

Topic closed. 205 replies. Last post 3 years ago by SergeM.

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Which Play is the Best Bet?

Powerball [ 9 ]  [24.32%]
Powerball with Powerplay [ 4 ]  [10.81%]
Megamillions [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Megamillions with Megaplier [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 37 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 7 ]  
RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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Posted: April 15, 2014, 6:21 pm - IP Logged

Heck....

might as well spend $70. Each number gets played at least once, and each PB number can be played once.

Guaranteed to get back at least $4.

My advice would be to keep your money in your pocket, you will most likely come out way ahead.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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    NEW YORK
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    Posted: April 15, 2014, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

    My advice would be to keep your money in your pocket, you will most likely come out way ahead.

    RL

    I could not buy a $10 Mega Millions ticket today, because I flushed the $10 in the toilet.

    US Flag

    PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

      rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
      Texas
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      Posted: April 15, 2014, 7:17 pm - IP Logged

      My advice would be to keep your money in your pocket, you will most likely come out way ahead.

      RL

      Matter of fact my money is in my wallet. Not gonna drop that knda cash. Already have my 2 PB tics.

      Thought maybe I could coax ole Thrifty into spending like a drunken sailor. LOL.

      CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

      A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

        rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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        Posted: April 15, 2014, 7:19 pm - IP Logged

        I could not buy a $10 Mega Millions ticket today, because I flushed the $10 in the toilet.

        How or what did you flush your $10 on. Or was it literally flushing? If it was, I would be interested in THAT story.

        CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

        A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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          Posted: April 15, 2014, 7:39 pm - IP Logged

          Matter of fact my money is in my wallet. Not gonna drop that knda cash. Already have my 2 PB tics.

          Thought maybe I could coax ole Thrifty into spending like a drunken sailor. LOL.

          Did you know that having 1 lottery ticket takes 100% of your brain energy field?

          US Flag

          PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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            NEW YORK
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            Posted: April 15, 2014, 7:42 pm - IP Logged

            How or what did you flush your $10 on. Or was it literally flushing? If it was, I would be interested in THAT story.

            I bought a subway sandwich with the $10 which gave me an urge to the toilet.

            US Flag

            PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
              Happyland
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              Posted: April 15, 2014, 7:44 pm - IP Logged

              I bought a subway sandwich with the $10 which gave me an urge to the toilet.

              LOL! Spent $10 and won a subway sandwich.

              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                NEW YORK
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                Posted: April 15, 2014, 7:46 pm - IP Logged

                My advice would be to keep your money in your pocket, you will most likely come out way ahead.

                RL

                We do not need Jimmy's Lottery numbers simulators to be Risk Averse.

                US Flag

                PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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                  Posted: April 15, 2014, 7:48 pm - IP Logged

                  LOL! Spent $10 and won a subway sandwich.

                  I spent $10 on a subway sandwich instead of playing the lottery.LOL

                  US Flag

                  PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                    Posted: April 15, 2014, 8:18 pm - IP Logged

                    Heck....

                    might as well spend $70. Each number gets played at least once, and each PB number can be played once.

                    Guaranteed to get back at least $4.

                    Here is the EV for the cash option, I am sure it will make all the difference

                    EV

                     

                    RL

                    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                      Posted: April 15, 2014, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

                      I spent $10 on a subway sandwich instead of playing the lottery.LOL

                      THRIFTY

                      I just had big steak for dinner, the wifes off for spring break so we decided to live it up a bit.

                      I eat at subway at least once a week, the Steak&Cheese on wheat is my fav.

                      RL

                      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                        Posted: April 15, 2014, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

                        Here is the EV for the cash option, I am sure it will make all the difference

                        EV

                         

                        RL

                        opps, need to adjust for $2.00 bet

                        RL

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                          Posted: April 16, 2014, 2:33 am - IP Logged

                          I think this is correct.

                          EV-2

                          RL

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


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                            Posted: April 16, 2014, 4:34 am - IP Logged

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                            No matter that tenured mathematicians and scientists sympathetic enough to take the time to talk to you about this will agree with me - YOU KNOW BETTER!  Based on the many self appraisals of your IQ, knowledge, and skills presented here in these forums,  I'm sure you must think Don Catlin and Richard Arnold Epstein should kiss your feet.  I don't think they will.  And Pascal, Fermat and Einstein, some of whose opinions you would reject as well, are not available to pay their respects.

                            Do you have any more code snippets to demonstrate your prowess in your chosen dialect of BASIC?  Your groupies who have no idea what it means seem to be quite impressed.  In my experience, the ability to program a computer does not necessarily correlate positively with other measures of intelligence nor with a person's contributions to the world in general. Sometimes the correlations are negative. You are a prime example in that you can write programs that should reveal the truth to you, but your Innumeracy won't allow it to happen.

                            Dream on!

                            --Jimmy4164

                            P.S.  As for the statement you might wish you hadn't made...

                            https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/273424/3553656

                            P.S.S.  Be forewarned.  There's a LOT of competition out there for Lottery Prediction Software.

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

                            Earlier you said, "There are still disciplined people who refuse to give up hope that they will find the missing link regardless of what the math says."

                            I don't know anyone in biology, zoology, anthropology, or archaeology who are looking for a "missing link."  And I know a few, personally.  Interestingly, the kind of reasoning required to understand how evolution works is very similar to what is required to understand why, when you've chosen one of the majority sets in a (5,39) lotto, ONE with 5 or 6 unique digits, the probability that the lottery will match your set is still 1 in 575,757, the same as for a set with only 2 digits.  And this is notwithstanding the fact that you were able to display "simulation" results earlier that, TO YOU, seemed to indicate otherwise.

                            Perhaps this video will help you with your confusion.  Don't give up at Part 1.  Part 2 especially addresses your analogy of a computer trying to randomly generate a set of drivers.

                            http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhiMKALCZCE

                            --Jimmy4164

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                              United States
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                              Posted: April 16, 2014, 6:05 am - IP Logged

                              Jimbo

                              When did I ever say that I only play 1 line,  my normal is around 15 and all the sets are combined

                              in such a way that they give me the most coverage I can get.  Playing 5 or 6 digits just puts me in

                              what will be the best position I can place myself before the drawing.  It has no win guarantee as the

                              next 5 drawings could be 2 digit lines.  Selecting which digits to put into play also has it's risk but

                              I use the same sort of analysis step after step until I reduce to my play limit.   I don't know what will

                              happen in the next draw but I can make some informed decisions about what will happen over the

                              next several draws.  I really don't know what the problem is, I feel given what I have to work with

                              I am making sound decisions.  As I have said many times the safest bet is to keep your money in

                              your pocket and bypass the lottery.  95% or more of my play is on paper, no money.  I have also said

                              it's like a treasure hunt,  I gather up my tools, do a little research and plot a place to dig.  If someone 

                              else finds the treasure first then no problem, it always gets replaced it with another.   Your assumption

                              that I don't know the math is ridiculous.  It's a game and if I have to stretch the rules so that I can

                              somehow apply math to the process then so what.   I won't be watching the video as I am perty sure

                              I know what will be said.  The argument continues but look into the required sub-systems that must

                              also randomly develop at the same time.  I could accept a few but when one considers it takes thousands

                              and thousands it goes way beyond mathematical probability.  If you can dig into this and still accept we are

                              a product of random then you should have no problem at all with my claims.  Time is finite and there is just

                              not enough of it, past, present or future.

                              RL

                               

                              P.S.  Can you check the output of the EV calculator above and let me know if it's correct,  I am not sure.

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                                 
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