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Megamillions and Powerball Games

Topic closed. 205 replies. Last post 3 years ago by SergeM.

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Which Play is the Best Bet?

Powerball [ 9 ]  [24.32%]
Powerball with Powerplay [ 4 ]  [10.81%]
Megamillions [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Megamillions with Megaplier [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 37 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 7 ]  
RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4054 Posts
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Posted: April 17, 2014, 12:15 am - IP Logged

Here is a list that shows what we play for every time my 5-39 is played regardless
of the numbers, digits, etc....     

prizes 5 of 5 = 1      in 575757
prizes 4 of 5 = 170    in 575757 
prizes 3 of 5 = 5,610  in 575757
prizes 2 of 5 = 59,840 in 575757
_____________________
Total possible prizes  = 65,621 
_____________________

The overall odds of winning a prize = 575,757 / 65,621 = 8.773974 and this is the
most important number a player needs to know.

We can see that for every ticket we play there are 65,621 possible sets in the
matrix that will at least break even for this game. 5,610 of the 65,621 will pay
10 to 1 and 170 that pays 250 to 1. 

The big one, the grand daddy of them all, the hardest to catch, the elusive 5of5
will always be 1 in 575757. Any reduction of the matrix even by one line can remove
any chance of a JP prize.

Jimbo says that I suffer innumericy but let me lay this to rest. The thing here
is that we must remember that every line played has overall odds of 1 in 8.773947
for winning a prize. Just for fun let's do a little math, let's say that I play 12
lines, 12*65621=787452. Next we check to see how the 12 lines combined stack up in
overall chances to win a prize.

787452/575757=1.36768. The overall odds are 1 in 8.773974 and 12/8.773974=1.36768.
Hmmmmm, both have the same chances of winning the same number of prizes.  This is
also the same if I play 12 lines all with the same numbers or if each set contains
different numbers.

Player #1
01-02-11-21-22
01-02-11-21-22

Player #2
01-02-03-04-05
06-07-08-09-10


As I have said in the past you can't change the odds for the game without changing
the matrix. 

All lines have the same number of prizes but does playing 2 lines with the same
numbers fair as well overall as playing two lines with different numbers? 

The answer to this may seem a bit counter intuitive but both are the same. Remember I
said that each line has a fixed number of possible prizes for each draw.  At first
thought one might assume that playing the same set twice will only have 1 in 65,621
chances of matching at least 2 numbers where playing 2 different lines would have twice
the number of chances.

What one must consider is that anytime player #1's set falls within the range of numbers
drawn then they will win on both tickets where player #2 might only win one.

I say that no matter how you twist it, the chances and odds are always those that are
advertised for the game.

With all this being said there is only one method that will produce results better than
the expected over time. All the above depends on making random choices so one must conclude
that if a system is doing better in the long run then something else must be going on. 

The whole business behind the digit system is that I can predict or guess the digits
that will show with a much greater accuracy then I can if picking numbers.  Playing 5
or 6 digits just puts me in a better position more times than not. The digit system is
way more than playing 5 or 6 digits and saying that simply by doing this I will win is
foolishness.

My analysis is paying off for my 5-39 but as yet I have not been able to apply it to the
big games.  Everything boils down to "can I predict the digits." If I can, even to a small
degree then my selections and the actual drawing arn't totally random.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  


    United States
    Member #93947
    July 10, 2010
    2180 Posts
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    Posted: April 17, 2014, 5:44 am - IP Logged

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

    No matter that tenured mathematicians and scientists sympathetic enough to take the time to talk to you about this will agree with me - YOU KNOW BETTER!  Based on the many self appraisals of your IQ, knowledge, and skills presented here in these forums,  I'm sure you must think Don Catlin and Richard Arnold Epstein should kiss your feet.  I don't think they will.  And Pascal, Fermat and Einstein, some of whose opinions you would reject as well, are not available to pay their respects.

    Do you have any more code snippets to demonstrate your prowess in your chosen dialect of BASIC?  Your groupies who have no idea what it means seem to be quite impressed.  In my experience, the ability to program a computer does not necessarily correlate positively with other measures of intelligence nor with a person's contributions to the world in general. Sometimes the correlations are negative. You are a prime example in that you can write programs that should reveal the truth to you, but your Innumeracy won't allow it to happen.

    Dream on!

    --Jimmy4164

    P.S.  As for the statement you might wish you hadn't made...

    https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/273424/3553656

    P.S.S.  Be forewarned.  There's a LOT of competition out there for Lottery Prediction Software.

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

    In your second to last paragraph immediately above, it's not clear who you're trying to convince, me or you.

    Back on March 26th, in this thread, you said, “If you play only sets that are built from 2 digits then you will reduce your chances of hitting a JP within your lifetime.”

    This is unequivocally wrong!  And until you can be convinced of this fact, you will continue to waste large amounts of precious time trying to INCREASE your "chances of hitting a JP."  I am working on a colorful post that I think might convince, maybe not you, but at least a few people reading here that what I’m saying is true.

    Based on one of your earlier postings describing your digit system, I derived the following:

    In the Total Universe of (5,39) Sets…

    146784   of  575757  have 2, 3, 4, 7, or 8  different digits or  0.25494

    428973   of  575757  have 5 or 6               different digits or  0.74506

    In other words, there are approximately 3 times as many sets containing 5 or 6 digits, than all the rest combined.  And yes, this is the same “population and distribution” you will find if you count the digits in the sets from Quick Pick machines as well as the ones produced by the Lottery Draws.

    However, these facts, the expected results of Combinatorics and the Base 10 Number System, in NO WAY, support your quoted claim above.

    If you think you can prove the opposite of this, you should probably start working on it.

    Stay tuned.

    --Jimmy4164

      THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
      NEW YORK
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      Member #90535
      April 29, 2010
      12094 Posts
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      Posted: April 17, 2014, 7:03 am - IP Logged

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

      In your second to last paragraph immediately above, it's not clear who you're trying to convince, me or you.

      Back on March 26th, in this thread, you said, “If you play only sets that are built from 2 digits then you will reduce your chances of hitting a JP within your lifetime.”

      This is unequivocally wrong!  And until you can be convinced of this fact, you will continue to waste large amounts of precious time trying to INCREASE your "chances of hitting a JP."  I am working on a colorful post that I think might convince, maybe not you, but at least a few people reading here that what I’m saying is true.

      Based on one of your earlier postings describing your digit system, I derived the following:

      In the Total Universe of (5,39) Sets…

      146784   of  575757  have 2, 3, 4, 7, or 8  different digits or  0.25494

      428973   of  575757  have 5 or 6               different digits or  0.74506

      In other words, there are approximately 3 times as many sets containing 5 or 6 digits, than all the rest combined.  And yes, this is the same “population and distribution” you will find if you count the digits in the sets from Quick Pick machines as well as the ones produced by the Lottery Draws.

      However, these facts, the expected results of Combinatorics and the Base 10 Number System, in NO WAY, support your quoted claim above.

      If you think you can prove the opposite of this, you should probably start working on it.

      Stay tuned.

      --Jimmy4164

      You can only win lottery games in the short term.

      US Flag

      PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

        THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
        NEW YORK
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        Member #90535
        April 29, 2010
        12094 Posts
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        Posted: April 17, 2014, 7:11 am - IP Logged

        RL-RANDOMLOGIC,

        Earlier you said, "There are still disciplined people who refuse to give up hope that they will find the missing link regardless of what the math says."

        I don't know anyone in biology, zoology, anthropology, or archaeology who are looking for a "missing link."  And I know a few, personally.  Interestingly, the kind of reasoning required to understand how evolution works is very similar to what is required to understand why, when you've chosen one of the majority sets in a (5,39) lotto, ONE with 5 or 6 unique digits, the probability that the lottery will match your set is still 1 in 575,757, the same as for a set with only 2 digits.  And this is notwithstanding the fact that you were able to display "simulation" results earlier that, TO YOU, seemed to indicate otherwise.

        Perhaps this video will help you with your confusion.  Don't give up at Part 1.  Part 2 especially addresses your analogy of a computer trying to randomly generate a set of drivers.

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jhiMKALCZCE

        --Jimmy4164

        Humans have not evolved enough to understand the evolution process. Humans can only react to the evolution process by being RISK AVERSE OR RISK PRONE.

        http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/274648

        US Flag

        PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          4054 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: April 17, 2014, 9:04 am - IP Logged

          THRIFTY

          Humans have not evolved at all, technology however has due to population increases. 

          Since the time of our earliest ancestors the second law of thermodynamics has been in

          play. Entropy.  We are getting weaker and weaker as a species as we are copies of

          copies of copies of copies of copies etc.............................................................................

          ..........................................................................................................................................

          ..........................................................................................................................................

          ............................................................................. 

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

            United States
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            Posted: April 17, 2014, 9:30 am - IP Logged

            Jimbo

            Don't waste the time, you won't apply the correct application to the many different aspects.  You are

            so into your ego that all you look for is fault.  I reread the thread which prompted me to write the above

            post.  The reason for it was to show you that I do understand that which you think I am unaware of. 

            Sorry you don't agree with the statement that you will reduce your chances of winning a JP in your

            lifetime but it's true.  In my many test of random over many years these type of sets don't show that

            often.   Please note that the set has the same odds as any other set but if you play this set you can

            expect it to show only once within so many drawings, that amount is most likely longer than you have

            left.  This also applies to many other types of lines and is not limited to just your set.  I use digits in

            such a way that it gives me the most coverage I can get in the fewest possible.  Nothing more than

            this is meant by the statement.   I hope to hit the JP when I play but the real effort is in trying to trap

            as many smaller prizes as I can.  The game odds would say that your set has the same chance to show

            but actual test I have ran say otherwise.  I don't care if you agree or not it's just my personal observation.

            I think it's my personal observations that gets your panties all bunched up.   When you post your colorful

            post I hope you attempt to put your EGO aside and try to understand what I wrote.  Many times your

            response is addressed to me but I can't figure out why because you miss what I meant by a mile.  The

            digits I choose to play determines the range of possible sets that if the drawing falls within then I will

            win way more than expected.  If you study my last post you should see how that certain digits can be

            combined to give the best coverage based on my beliefs that the next set drawn will fall within some

            range.  All that it is doing is expanding the field I choose to play.  Nothing more nothing less.  If my digit

            choices are incorrect then well they are incorrect, so what. 

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

              United States
              Member #59354
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              Posted: April 17, 2014, 9:55 am - IP Logged

              Thrifty

              Here is an example, geneticists decided to test evolution and for their test they choose the fruit fly.

              The fruit flies life span is around 10 days which is why they choose it as the test subject.  I don't

              remember how many years that they tried to introduce mutations that would change the fruit fly

              but it represented thousands of generations.  Their conclusion was that the fruit fly refused to be

              anything but a fruit fly.

              RL

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                Los Angeles, California
                United States
                Member #103813
                January 5, 2011
                1530 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: April 17, 2014, 10:05 am - IP Logged

                Humans have not evolved enough to understand the evolution process. Humans can only react to the evolution process by being RISK AVERSE OR RISK PRONE.

                http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/274648

                Human beings are not evolving anymore, if anything, we are devolving.

                Thanks to modern society, technology and government benefits, the stupid and weak and lazy not only survive but are prosperous and multiply in great numbers.

                Pretty soon we'll all be a bunch of fat, lazy, stupid blobs whizzing around on beds like in the movie Wall-E, being served by robots. At that point, the machines will take over and use us for batteries. Confused

                  THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
                  NEW YORK
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                  12094 Posts
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                  Posted: April 17, 2014, 11:06 am - IP Logged

                  Human beings are not evolving anymore, if anything, we are devolving.

                  Thanks to modern society, technology and government benefits, the stupid and weak and lazy not only survive but are prosperous and multiply in great numbers.

                  Pretty soon we'll all be a bunch of fat, lazy, stupid blobs whizzing around on beds like in the movie Wall-E, being served by robots. At that point, the machines will take over and use us for batteries. Confused

                  Lottery players are being blamed for the high unemployment rate that the USA is facing. Lottery players are lazy people who do not like to work for a living. So they say.

                  US Flag

                  PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                    United States
                    Member #59354
                    March 13, 2008
                    4054 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 17, 2014, 11:06 am - IP Logged

                    Human beings are not evolving anymore, if anything, we are devolving.

                    Thanks to modern society, technology and government benefits, the stupid and weak and lazy not only survive but are prosperous and multiply in great numbers.

                    Pretty soon we'll all be a bunch of fat, lazy, stupid blobs whizzing around on beds like in the movie Wall-E, being served by robots. At that point, the machines will take over and use us for batteries. Confused

                    I agree

                    Party

                    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                      THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
                      NEW YORK
                      United States
                      Member #90535
                      April 29, 2010
                      12094 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: April 17, 2014, 11:07 am - IP Logged

                      THRIFTY

                      Humans have not evolved at all, technology however has due to population increases. 

                      Since the time of our earliest ancestors the second law of thermodynamics has been in

                      play. Entropy.  We are getting weaker and weaker as a species as we are copies of

                      copies of copies of copies of copies etc.............................................................................

                      ..........................................................................................................................................

                      ..........................................................................................................................................

                      ............................................................................. 

                      RL

                      TIME IS MONEY.

                      US Flag

                      PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                        THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
                        NEW YORK
                        United States
                        Member #90535
                        April 29, 2010
                        12094 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: April 17, 2014, 11:15 am - IP Logged

                        Thrifty

                        Here is an example, geneticists decided to test evolution and for their test they choose the fruit fly.

                        The fruit flies life span is around 10 days which is why they choose it as the test subject.  I don't

                        remember how many years that they tried to introduce mutations that would change the fruit fly

                        but it represented thousands of generations.  Their conclusion was that the fruit fly refused to be

                        anything but a fruit fly.

                        RL

                        Survival of the fittest. Large population of fishes survive from the sharks.

                        US Flag

                        PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                          United States
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                          March 13, 2008
                          4054 Posts
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                          Posted: April 17, 2014, 11:16 am - IP Logged

                          Jimbo

                          Are you sure my earlier post is correct, I may just be playing with your head.  Here is a advanced

                          question for you.  Which of the groups below has the greatest chance of winning a prize in the next

                          5-39 drawing.

                           

                          Group #1

                          01-02-11-12-21

                          01-02-11-12-21   5 numbers * 3

                          01-02-11-12-21

                           

                          Group #2

                          01-02-03-04-05

                          06-07-08-09-10  15 numbers in play

                          11-12-13-14-15

                           

                          Group #3

                          01-04-15-23-38

                          08-13-24-25-33  all 3 are 6 digit sets, 1-2-3-4-5-8

                          02-18-22-34-35

                           

                          RL

                          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                            Los Angeles, California
                            United States
                            Member #103813
                            January 5, 2011
                            1530 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: April 17, 2014, 11:18 am - IP Logged

                            Lottery players are being blamed for the high unemployment rate that the USA is facing. Lottery players are lazy people who do not like to work for a living. So they say.

                            I blame the high unemployment on a bunch of rich irresponsible fat cats who GAMBLED other people's wealth away on derivatives, CDOs and other complex financial products. But that's another story.

                            Many lottery players are retired people who worked all their lives and now have lots of equity and disposable income and don't care about throwning money away on the lottery. Just look at all the old farts winning in Florida. Remember, you can't take it with you. Wink

                              THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
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                              Posted: April 17, 2014, 11:20 am - IP Logged

                              I agree

                              Party

                              I do not mind supporting all humans and non humans with the taxes that I pay.

                              US Flag

                              PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                                 
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