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Megamillions and Powerball Games

Topic closed. 205 replies. Last post 3 years ago by SergeM.

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Which Play is the Best Bet?

Powerball [ 9 ]  [24.32%]
Powerball with Powerplay [ 4 ]  [10.81%]
Megamillions [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Megamillions with Megaplier [ 12 ]  [32.43%]
Total Valid Votes [ 37 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 7 ]  
RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
3985 Posts
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Posted: March 29, 2014, 8:34 am - IP Logged

Jimbo

The setting president has made claims that he is from krypton, how stupid is that.  Your favorite tv shows

must be house and bones both of which are fictional crap.  Do you have any kind of normal life or do you

spend your days reading opinions of others just so you can post here at LP and try to look smart.  Sorry

you don't impress me one bit.

 

With that being said Dr's are often over worked, controled by insurance companys, investment firms etc.... 

The insurance companys only cover certain test which prevents doctors from doing all the test needed to

come to the right conculsion.  The drug companies push new drugs and give kickbacks to Dr's who prescribe

them. It's all part of the plan, Dr's can kill someone and get away with it because those who control the money

chain are controling the whole process.  Just blame it on the doctors and let the insurance companys push it

under the rug by getting some bottom feeding maggot to write a few articles that shift the blame in such a

way that people just accept it.   Back many years ago a certain motor company produced a car that had a

defective gas tank.  In stead of fixing the defect they made the decision based on probability that it would

cost less to let a few people burn to death. 

 

My father was at a Dr's office one day and the attending Dr stepped out of the room for a few minutes. 

While my dad was setting there another Dr leaned into the room and asked my dad if he needed anything

to which my father said no.  My Mother received a bill for $500.00 from this other doctor a few weeks

later, my father having died.  Sick <snip>s if you ask me.   

 

Your EGO is what's at stake here.  You need to come to grips with reality.  Don't believe everything you read.

 

RL

This post has been automatically changed by the Lottery Post computer system to remove inappropriate content and/or spam.

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

    United States
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    3985 Posts
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    Posted: March 29, 2014, 11:23 am - IP Logged

    Jimbo

    You said to RJ

    "I am VERY interested in what you think.  How else could I develop arguments to help you see the errors in your thinking?"

    If you mean besides linking to some other persons work, I would say you can't.   The comment above shows your EGO at

    work.  You assume RJ is flawed in some way, guess what, every one has flaws including you.   Maybe you are working on

    your dissertation which would explain all the links/quotes.   A PhD is the final stage of rolling over to the beliefs of others

    and proves you have stopped thinking for yourself.

    RL

    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

      bobby623's avatar - abstract
      San Angelo, Texas
      United States
      Member #1097
      January 31, 2003
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      Posted: March 29, 2014, 4:15 pm - IP Logged

      I voted Powerball, just for the heck of it!

      Jimmy is no doubt a member of some hard-line anti-gambling church, sect, or whatever, that requires believers to go out into the public
      and save those gambers from going to hell.
      He has presented a powerful argument against lottery gambling.
      While RL has chosen to participate in what I call a 'circular argument' (it goes around and around, can't find a home) my reply to Jimmy is - so what?
      I think most thinking lottery players, including myself, know their chances of winning big are very slim.
      But, an important fact to consider is that lotteries are trying very hard to give away millions of dollars everyday.
      So I say, to hell with the odds, full steam ahead. You can't win if you don't have a ticket.
      Who knows, I could be the next big winner - but I won't hold my breath.
      Jimmy needs to check out the other game forums. He needs to visit the lottery website for his state, particularly the pages that
      document the winnings being paid out.
      Call it dumb luck, or whatever, but a lot of folks have found ways to win, despite the odds.
      I suggest that Jimmy and his anti-gambling buddies need to take a step back and consider some alternatives.
      Mainly, he should consider that detailed analysis of lottery game history can present some useful trends players can
      use to their advantage.
      RL says his methods are paying off - Bravo!
      Many lottery sinners have developed varies schemes that they claim have paid off.
      I have a plan, which is based solely on lottery history and tracking techniques.
      While I don't win every drawing, I do win often enough to make all the time and effort expended worthwhile.
      If Jimmy were to make the effort, and given his programming skills, I'm sure he could develope some plausible playing
      techniques of his own.
      But, Jimmy won't ever consider any alternatives.
      He will no doubt keep trying to convert players who don't want to be converted!


        United States
        Member #93947
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        Posted: March 29, 2014, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

        Bobby623,

        "I voted Powerball, just for the heck of it!"

        Thanks for your vote.  I voted MM with Megaplier because I find the return on my $ spent is highest with that bet if I never hit a higher tiered prize, which is most likely.

        "Jimmy is no doubt a member of some hard-line anti-gambling church, sect, or whatever, that requires believers to go out into the public and save those gambers from going to hell.
        He has presented a powerful argument against lottery gambling."

        I don't know how you've gotten this impression Bobby.  It is so far from the truth that it's hilarious!  You apparently haven't looked at many of my prior posts.  Try a random selection and I'm sure you'll soon discover that my agenda is not anti-gambling, it's anti illogical, and anti Snake Oil salesmen.  There is a plague in our country of Innumeracy, and it spills over from lottery playing into many other areas of our lives. This includes juries convicting (or releasing) the wrong people and doctors misdiagnosing their patients.  The reason the argument in this thread appears circular is because RL-RANDOMLOGIC is unwilling ( or unable) to engage me on the specific points I have made.  He brushes them off as "nonsense."   He apparently believes there is fraud in the computerized games and/or flaws in the mechanisms of the ball machines which are exploitable.  I don't think there is any way to convince him that even if he's right about the fraud or flaws, there is no reasonable chance that he can exploit them with his methods.  Unfortunately, I think he's invested so much time and energy in his quest that he will never give up, and continue to lash out at people like me.  If he gets lucky and hits a jackpot, his Confirmation Bias and that of all his believing followers will spawn another generation of believers in an insidious fallacy. Unhappy

        Take another look...

        https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/273424/3542008

        --Jimmy4164

        P.S.  Your post would make a good advertisement for one of those encyclopedic books of one year histories of lottery draws.

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
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          Posted: March 29, 2014, 6:21 pm - IP Logged

          bobby623

          All my post here are just payback, jimbo likes to drop in uninvited and sling his crap all over the

          place.  He disrupts lottery discussions with the same old lame crappy insights and mocks anyone

          who thinks they can improve their play.  If someone does do better than expected then he claims

          chance is responsible.  Is anyone else tired of hearing his 5th grade math lessons?   I just seen

          that he dumped a list of sets into a topic I started to keep tract of a new prediction program that

          I am working on.  He first showed up there slinging his crap so I thought I would return the the favor.

          He thinks by dropping these numbers in my other post he will prove something, WRONG again jimbe.

          The topic was started as a test and that is all it is, I am just sharing the results in public forum for

          anyone interested.  jimbe is a moron from his feet up, and his posting there proves it beyond doubt.

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

            United States
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            Posted: March 29, 2014, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

            jimbe

            Why have you not answered one of my first questions concerning evolution.  The question is

            really not about evolution in general it's about the odds.  Evolution is mathematically equivalent to

            winning the lottery every day for thousands of years without a single miss.  Your a pick and choose

            sort of guy which is why I will never take you serious.  Same thing when you mock my digit system,

            you pick out the part which agrees with the expected odds but ignore the human element of being

            able to pick a couple digits from a list of 7.  As I have said many times if I can't predict or guess the

            correct digits to add to the base digits then the system fails.  However when I do select the correct

            couple digits then I have trapped the 5of5 in sometimes less than 100 lines.   Maybe I am just good

            at guessing or maybe it's chance.  The truth is that you can't tell the difference.  Crap is crap, I call

            it like it is.   I just hope others see you for what you really are, looser.

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

              United States
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              March 13, 2008
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              Posted: March 30, 2014, 10:12 am - IP Logged

              jimbe

              Lets take a look at your siginature.

              "Betting systems votaries are spiritually akin to the proponents of perpetual motion
              machines, butting their heads against the Second Law of Thermodynamics."
              The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic by Richard Arnold Epstein

              The Second Law of Thermodynamics, entropy applied to evolution. 

              Things don't improve with entropy they decay.

              Looks like your suffering from some kind of fallacy here and what's even worse is

              passing it on to the next generations. 

               

              I have a method to test your belief in evolution.  Pick up a old laptop computer

              and a cheap webcam.  Next connect the webcam and install the software without

              the drivers.  Next write a small app that generates random code which will be used

              as the driver. 

              Please ignore all the little distractions like how the computer or webcam came into

              existence and just focus on the random code.  Next hit the start button and see how

              long it takes your little program to build a working driver using random data.

               

              Part 2.

              Below is a list of the last 10 draws for my 5-39 which I consider run of the mill draws.

              Day  Date       Numbers         Digits 

              ___________________________________________

              FRI  03/28/14   17 24 28 34 39  1-2-3-4-8-9
              THU  03/27/14   10 12 24 34 39  1-2-3-4-9
              WED  03/26/14   06 21 30 32 35  1-2-3-5-6-0
              TUE  03/25/14   07 09 20 26 39  2-3-6-7-9-0
              MON  03/24/14   04 05 08 23 35  2-3-4-5-8
              SUN  03/23/14   06 15 20 33 37  1-2-3-5-6-7-0
              SAT  03/22/14   01 03 04 10 11  1-3-4-0
              FRI  03/21/14   08 15 22 33 37  1-2-3-5-7-8
              THU  03/20/14   01 06 07 11 34  1-3-4-6-7
              WED  03/19/14   01 04 13 24 27  1-2-3-4-7

               

              Let me see, first thing I notice is that 8 out of 10 of these draws all have digits 1-2-3 and 3 of these

              also include digit 4, I also see that three sets have digit clusters 1-2-3-5.  Hmmm, next I notice

              that five of these lines all have a digit 7, weird I know but just making general observations here.

              Three lines also contain digit 8 and I also see that of the 10 draws 4 have 5 digits and 4 have 6 digits. 

              Oh the randomness of the drawings where will it end.  Let me see now, maybe I should include at least

              the digits 1, 2 and 3 in every line I pick and maybe add either digit 4 or 5, I could use both but not too

              sure how that would play out.  It looks to me that I have to decide on 2 or 3 digits from a list of seven

              unused digits (4567890)  If I choose to use 5 total digits then there are 21 possible pairs and if I choose to

              play 6 total digits then I have to choose one of 35 trays.  Maybe I should just pick 5 numbers at random

              and as I am sure that if I calculate all the odds they would still be 1 in 575757 for the game, dam it.  Hmmm,

              what to do, what to do.  I just checked and see that out of the last 1000 drawings that 416 had 6 digits

              and 330 sets had 5 total digits.  Let me see, I estimate based on population and distribution of sets within

              the matrix that 5 digits make up approximately 33% and 6 digit lines make up around 41%.  Maybe, just

              maybe a two digits set will be drawn.  Oh what should I do?

               

              If 41% of all sets in the matrix have 6 digits and 33% have 5 total digits then there is a 74% chance that the

              next drawing will have 5 or 6 digits.  Hmmmmm, I think I will play 1-2-11-12-21 cause jimbe says I am wasting

              my time and teaching a fallacy.  Let me see, if my digit selections are incorrect then all hope of a 5of5 is lost but

              maybe I will only miss by one digit and still be in the running for a 4of5 7.4 games out of every 10 games.  If I miss

              2 digits then I am still in the running for a 3of5.  Matching any 2 numbers breaks even. 

              I conclude that playing 5 or 6 digit lines is the best option based on population and distribution of the matrix.  If

              I play fewer than 5 or more than 6 then I will not have any chance of winning 7.4 games of every 10.  This is the

              so called fallacy jimbe has pointed out so many times but notice how his arguments don't address the real issues.

               

              Maybe he can't see his missconceptions concerning the digit system but I think he does but can't admit it because

              it would make his job here a joke.   He loves to do the twist so that everything spins in the direction he wants.  I

              watched a tv program last night about people on death row put there by people like him.  These people twisted

              the evidence and even lied to get a conviction.  Sorry SOB's, to error is human but to practice it is an abomination.

              By the way, last nights Show Me cash drawing was 2-12-18-33-35, digits 1-2-3-5-8, five digits 1-2-3 + 5 & 8. 

               

              RL

              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                Avatar
                NEW YORK
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                Member #90535
                April 29, 2010
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                Posted: March 30, 2014, 10:17 am - IP Logged

                You cannot predict random.

                US Flag

                PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                  RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                  United States
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                  Posted: March 30, 2014, 10:22 am - IP Logged

                  You cannot predict random.

                  It's impossable to creat a random event, get close maybe.  With that being said playing smarter does not

                  mean prediction.  It all comes down to the choices I make which are not predictions but best guesses based

                  on my observations.

                  RL

                  Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                  I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                  they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                  USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                    US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                    Avatar
                    Kentucky
                    United States
                    Member #32652
                    February 14, 2006
                    7322 Posts
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                    Posted: March 30, 2014, 11:27 am - IP Logged

                    SkyLine69,

                    You're missing the point of this thread.  Its purpose is to help you choose the Jackpot Game that best matches your comfort level.  If you've run the simulator, you've seen that UNLESS you win a higher tiered prize, you are going to lose money over time - MOST LIKELY in excess of 80 cents on each dollar wagered.  This is because most of the prize money is held back for the Jackpots.  In terms of the 4 options in this poll, you must decide which is "best" for you based on whether you're willing to absorb higher costs in exchange for bigger Jackpots, or not.

                    In another post you said when you buy a ticket, your odds are 50/50 to win.  Not true.  For example, in the Megamillions game, your odds of winning ANYTHING with ONE ticket is 1 in 14.71.

                    And yes, you CAN win lots of money in the lottery!  Witness the majority Quick Pick winners!

                    Why can't you have fun playing the lottery without having to believe you can "Beat The Odds?"  Those of us who accept the fact that the lottery is a Random Process but still enjoy dreaming about what we'd do if we won, really don't understand you.   And since we don't spend money on Snake Oil software and books, we have more money to buy tickets! Smile

                    --Jimmy416
                    4

                    "If you've run the simulator, you've seen that UNLESS you win a higher tiered prize, you are going to lose money over time - MOST LIKELY in excess of 80 cents on each dollar wagered"

                    Haven't you figured out by now MM and PB players are wagering $1 or $2 a ticket trying to win a higher tiered prize regardless of your odds?

                    "In another post you said when you buy a ticket, your odds are 50/50 to win."

                    When a player buys a ticket there are only two possible outcomes (winning or losing) and having only a 6.8% of winning something doesn't magically create other possible outcomes.

                    "Not true. For example, in the Megamillions game, your odds of winning ANYTHING with ONE ticket is 1 in 14.71"

                    One ticket can either win something or lose. What are the other 13.71 possible outcomes?

                    Are you using "common core" math?


                      United States
                      Member #93947
                      July 10, 2010
                      2180 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: March 30, 2014, 4:47 pm - IP Logged

                      RL-RANDOMLOGIC and Stack47,

                      Well, since RL thinks he knows more than Einstein (check his earlier posts in this thread) about physics and that Evolution is "mathematically impossible," and Stack believes he has a better understanding of gambling odds and payouts than Richard Arnold Epstein and Don Catlin, it would appear I'm being double teamed here by a formidable duo.  I don't think so, however...

                      ...I'm not going to waste more time addressing your postings since my last.  This ground has been covered and recovered too often already. You both have so much time and energy invested in your quest for the Holy Grail that it would take nothing less than multiple sessions of ECT to change your thinking.  I'm not in that business.  It's now clear that you not only don't understand why the frequency of Base-10 Digits in Lottery Draws is completely irrelevant, you also don't understand how Evolution works.  I'm sure your ideas would be welcomed with open arms at the Creation Museum there in Kentucky.  Check it out.  They may even have some staff positions available for you.

                      Dream on!

                      --Jimmy4164

                      P.S. It would be interesting to know how RL will recognize a "Truly Random Event," when he sees one. :-)

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                        Posted: March 30, 2014, 5:51 pm - IP Logged

                        jimbo

                        I was so afraid that you would not reply, I so much wanted to drive the final nail in the coffin.

                        For those who have been reading this, what jimbo does not want you to know is this.  I mentioned

                        that fair drawings will follow the population and distribution of the matrix.  I also gave the reason

                        why I play 5 or 6 digits lines.  This has been back tested, forward tested and simulated many times.

                        Each game matrix is a bit different but the same sort of rule applies.

                         

                        If you play lines with fewer than 5 or greater than 6 digits then you have zero chance of hitting

                        a jackpot around 7.4 out of every 10 tickets you play.  WOW! He showed up here around the

                        time I first posted the digit system and has been trashing me and the digit system ever since.   All the

                        information needed to test this is posted here.  jimbo will no doubt try a comeback but the cat's out of

                        the bag so to say. 

                         

                        By by jimbo

                        RL   

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                          Avatar
                          NEW YORK
                          United States
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                          Posted: March 30, 2014, 6:27 pm - IP Logged

                          It's impossable to creat a random event, get close maybe.  With that being said playing smarter does not

                          mean prediction.  It all comes down to the choices I make which are not predictions but best guesses based

                          on my observations.

                          RL

                          YOU WILL NEVER WIN A LOTTERY JACKPOT IN YOUR LIFETIME.

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                            New Jersey
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                            Posted: March 30, 2014, 9:01 pm - IP Logged

                            I'm trying to ignore all the personal stuff flying around here just to say that the simulator is fun and cool.

                            It's interesting to let it run a few million tickets and see how the simulator varies (or in the case of higher odds "winnings" - one buck which is actually nothing more than a free play and two bucks) or converges upon odds.

                            It demonstrates that the odds are sometimes not met, that they are not absolutes, that it easy to do much worse than the odds - and never win - or to do better than the odds.

                            It's a wonderful tool for teaching too, if nothing else, to give a sense of how big very large numbers are.   I mean the thing's running around a hundred of "games" per second and you can run it, it would seem, for weeks without even approaching 100 million.

                            As for the game, the actual lottery.

                            Nobody plays the lottery because the odds are even remotely acceptable, or at least I hope not.   One should play for fun and in order to enjoy a little fantasy, or at least I play that way.   If I get a surprise and win a hundred bucks - something I've done a few times - I'm always a little shocked, but I enjoy it.

                            Otherwise, the lottery is just a fun way of paying taxes; something I believe in, since I agree with Oliver Wendell Holmes that "taxes are the price one pays for living in a civilized country."     In New Jersey, the money goes to schools, where hopefully they teach math.

                              RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                              United States
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                              Posted: March 30, 2014, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

                              YOU WILL NEVER WIN A LOTTERY JACKPOT IN YOUR LIFETIME.

                              Thrifty, your wrong about this one, I already have.

                              RL

                              Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                              I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                              they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                              USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                                US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                                 
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