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So what would the "Holy Grail" of Pick 3 playing be?

Topic closed. 268 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Atomic Dog.

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lakerben's avatar - spherewall
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Posted: November 1, 2014, 12:05 pm - IP Logged

I understand all the statistical drive within a normal distribution, but it seems all this debate  is focus on ' a type' of data-Historical. Ponder on this for a moment, lets assume your State introduces a new lottery game with a matrix x/N, how do you wage with historical data? , are you going to wait for enough data before you start waging?. Statistics is a waging strategy not a prediction method. Waging strategy and prediction method should be clear and defined, else you 'll be chasing your own tail.

I Agree!

How about them cowboys!

 

 

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    Posted: November 1, 2014, 12:06 pm - IP Logged

    Let's wait for Pick-3 guy to answer before we go off on another tangent.  According to him we don't know the precise level of success/failure of this "exercise."

    The posed question is much related to prediction in a broader sense, is an open question that be commented by any member-----Is called a forum to share ideals!

      Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

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      Posted: November 1, 2014, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

      I understand all the statistical drive within a normal distribution, but it seems all this debate  is focus on ' a type' of data-Historical. Ponder on this for a moment, lets assume your State introduces a new lottery game with a matrix x/N, how do you wage with historical data? , are you going to wait for enough data before you start waging?. Statistics is a waging strategy not a prediction method. Waging strategy and prediction method should be clear and defined, else you 'll be chasing your own tail.

       Yes, duly noted. Thank you. Thank you for holding off on those obviously very time-sensitive observations and opinions.

       

         Now, for the sake of clarification. It's a tool and normally one of several coordinated vectoring filters.  It's a 720 number filter. 

         A "3 day doubles trap" is just that. It begins on the 8th day and continues through the 9th and 10th day to complete. Then, Full Stop. 

        It's a matter of how many 10 day gaps of single number draws occur during the year. How many 10 draw gaps contain at least one double? 

        If one wished to increase his probability of a double trap successes and achieve an even higher rates he could wait and then start on day 9 and continue to draw 11. Dramatic increase of success for those willing to wait to extend the start time of the 3 day window just one more draw. Keeping the 3 day window.

        PROMETHEUS       

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        Posted: November 1, 2014, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

         Yes, duly noted. Thank you. Thank you for holding off on those obviously very time-sensitive observations and opinions.

         

           Now, for the sake of clarification. It's a tool and normally one of several coordinated vectoring filters.  It's a 720 number filter. 

           A "3 day doubles trap" is just that. It begins on the 8th day and continues through the 9th and 10th day to complete. Then, Full Stop. 

          It's a matter of how many 10 day gaps of single number draws occur during the year. How many 10 draw gaps contain at least one double? 

          If one wished to increase his probability of a double trap successes and achieve an even higher rates he could wait and then start on day 9 and continue to draw 11. Dramatic increase of success for those willing to wait to extend the start time of the 3 day window just one more draw. Keeping the 3 day window.

        So is a  waging strategy?, I presume  your picks are already selected before you  start the ' Trap'  journey? What if I decide to incorporate the said 'Traps' in my prediction method without tracking-The doubles, singles, digit returns etc, should come to me rather than chasing them.

         

        WI

        Drawing DatePick 3Pick 4
        MiddayEveningMiddayEvening
        Fri, Oct 31, 20142-7-85-9-4-3
        Thu, Oct 30, 20141-6-96-9-7-7
        Wed, Oct 29, 20145-0-73-1-3-3
        Tue, Oct 28, 20149-1-25-0-2-2
        Mon, Oct 27, 20143-8-48-2-2-6
        Sun, Oct 26, 20145-9-74-9-6-0
        Sat, Oct 25, 20143-5-87-8-9-2
        Fri, Oct 24, 20149-7-19-5-4-6
        Thu, Oct 23, 20142-3-71-9-2-6
        Wed, Oct 22, 20144-0-84-9-1-7

         

        408....positional keys 98-87-92>filter 408>Remnant   9-7-92

        Now I have this remnant positional key 9-7-92, my focus is on digit 9 first> 97x, 9x9, 9x2, do I need to check stats for

        my pending doubles? no,I will just replace x with 0 thru 9> 970-971----979,   909,919,929---999,  902,912,922-929

        NB> If there's a double, single, triple, the PREDICTION method will 'bring' it to me, without trying much to track.

          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
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          Posted: November 1, 2014, 1:02 pm - IP Logged

          I will let the reader determine if this is a sound strategy based on the last 2 weeks of data.

          Last 2 weeks of data

          Jimmy


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            Posted: November 1, 2014, 1:38 pm - IP Logged

            Sorry, you're right, Pick3Guy, there are indeed 210.  I forgot to double the doubles boxes.

            I'm actually trying to say this:

            The California D3 at least, its method (imho) is to keep things - I mean, on a grand scale: in the scheme of things - I mean, over a long (infinite?) period of time - its goal is to keep things even.

            If you can somehow key into how the game keeps things even... you'll have ways to key into secret strategies.

            A purely random universe doesn't care, no, if a given pair is played once then goes away for a long period of time then comes back and then, to make things even, replays itself fairly quickly the next time.

            But a game that's designed to keep things "even," does care.

            So what are these "things" I'm talking about?

            In my opinion, an example of what these things are not?  Individual plays represented as three digit numbers.  A number like, oh, say, 377.  Which hasn't appeared in the California D3 for well over a year now.  There are not a few numbers that haven't appeared for multiple years.

            In my opinion, an example of what these things are?...

            You tell me.  Wink

             Well, PeerGynt, do you believe the game is ,basically, rigged ,simply, because it's an algorithm? But, the questions you're asking seem to be related to the algorithm and how pseudorandom number generators work. My advice then is to research this and see where it might lead.

              Prometheus1's avatar - trace9

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              Posted: November 1, 2014, 2:18 pm - IP Logged

               Good, we can move on from that now.

              Pick 3 guy is obviously unable to show his "work" nor honor us with any proofs of his alarming RED "debunking" Alerts. So as of now, it's still good to go. 

              No matter how you cut it up the success rate is much better than almost any other filter trap out there. Period. Unless, someone is willing to actually show proof  otherwise. Showing is better than telling.

                PROMETHEUS       


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                Posted: November 1, 2014, 2:53 pm - IP Logged

                I completely believe they "tinker" with the algorithm - but when I say tinker, I mean it's the equivalent of the dealer gathering the cards from the players and saying, "Okay, now instead of deuces wild, we're gonna play aces low," etc.  All essential remains the same... but there's a little bitty spin on the core fundamentals.

                Btw, this is why I don't believe any one "system" will work with the D3.  Though already, I have to define that term: I mean, individual methods or approaches to winning.  A "theory of the game" is beyond any system - do any of you here have one?  Your own theories of how the game works, what it's doing on a grand scale, what it's trying to achieve, etc.?  Within that theoretical framework, one then fashions methods of approach to winning.  No one theory of the game is correct, or incorrect.  Adobea has his own grand theory of the game, and he's developed his unique approach to it based on that theory; with it, he's proved amazingly successful.

                It doesn't work all the time for him - it doesn't need to, but plainly, his method doesn't "work" all the time, because it often takes many plays to get a hit.  (But is his plan to hit eventually?... that erases all the losses... his definition of "working," then, does work all the time: but for the sake of argument, I will continue:)  I actually buck the conventional wisdom here, in believing: indeed, one CAN win every single time one plays, absolutely; or a majority of the time.  But one also can play the piano like a virtuoso, or golf like Tiger (in his prime), or perform illusions like Houdini, or play Hamlet like Olivier... such things aren't just going to happen overnight; and they wouldn't just happen even were you handed the game's secret formula on a silver platter.

                You can know all the rules to Blackjack - now, get good at it.

                How do you get to Carnegie Hall, again? Smile

                 Well, the game works off of Probability. That's ,basically, what it all comes down to. Any winning system ,or method, would have to take this into account. But, it's ,definitely, possible for one system to work with the Pick 3. My one system does just that. Anyway, the only way to make sure you win every time is to play all 1000 numbers.


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                  Posted: November 1, 2014, 3:01 pm - IP Logged

                  If it makes you feel better thinking I did not write the software then go ahead thinking that but that is probably "besides the point" right? LMAO

                  Jimmy

                   Well, there's no reason for me to doubt you wrote it. The thought never even crossed my mind that you didn't. You've misunderstood what I meant. That is, why would you be writing software for Win D's method?

                    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                    Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                    Posted: November 1, 2014, 4:04 pm - IP Logged

                    Yes, keep on going forward ......... Thanks for the struggle Barry.

                     I've learned to let those go by until they are a little more ......seasoned. 

                     You know just  wondering how many perfectly good ......older filters have been passed over during the years. One's that actually work but ...after getting kicked and debunked like this. LOL  They never seem to completely recover. Especially... among the folks that don't use stats or software at all and ....depend on hear say alone. That's the sad part. 

                     Noticed some here have tried to go beyond it being just a basic tool. Some are attempting to push it into a stand alone system.This was brought up toward the end. It is not a stand alone System. The "3 day doubles Trap" is just a good filter tool ...as you already pointed out...... and works well in conjunction with other basic filter tools or triggers.

                     

                     By the way Jimmy, thanks for posting those charts.

                    Jimmy developed his charts to include all states .....collectively. Unlike the other older software. The older has been around for several years based on this Doubles Trap. The basic idea of the 3 day trap.... has been around for many years. However.....the new software Jimmy built goes beyond the original trapping idea ......and includes things like ALL collective states stats together.....rather than ONE state at a time. The older stuff can not manage it that way at all. 

                    Jimmy's newer software is great because it shows LARGE amounts of collective draws for all states. We can all now see how really effective the trap is across all states and ..... several years as well and ..... all at once. Excellent visuals too which compound the results across the board taking advantage of using the power of the "Law of Large numbers".       

                     

                     

                    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                           Win d    


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                      Posted: November 1, 2014, 4:04 pm - IP Logged

                      Are you saying you are basing your reputation on those few flimsy recent draws in just one State and ignoring the hundreds of thousands of other draws? Is that it? Because that is all you have shown. Nothing. 

                       Surely, you can easily call out one thing at least. At the very least you must know ONE little detail.  For you to have gone out on such a thin limb. 

                         IF you can't answer this  question Straight up then all of your running around yelling in Red is worthless. Because there is a strong possibility you don't know how this works.

                       

                          A doubles trap event is a set up of 10 draws with or with out a Double. Win/or/Lose  Your example showed 3 of these 10 draw events and all 3 lost at the end of your 366 draws going back ONE YEAR . How many gaps of 10 single numbers happen?

                           Not 9 events! This showed ONLY 3 Double Trap events or examples. These 3 examples happened all in a row and at the end of the 366 draws.  Starting today, and going back at least 366 draws in your state for the last year answer this. How many of these 10 draw doubles traps occurred? How many contained a double? How many did not? Simple. 

                                                     If you care to use any other STATE for the last year or the last 366 draws that's just fine. We can follow any of those going back one year as well.     

                       

                       Very Simple Question:

                                 How many times in the last year/366 did this 10 day event "Doubles Trap" work/fail in your state (your choice any state) for Mid/Eve/Combined

                       

                      1.  Eve draws?     Number  #Fail _?__      #Succeed__?__

                      2.  midday draws  ?

                      3. Combined draws ?

                       Well, you're ignoring the fact ,as mentioned, that this is not an isolated case. As stated, this can be observed in multiple states. But, where do you get that I'm "running around yelling in red"? That was just one statement I've made in red.

                       Anyway, the problem with these doubles trap events is that they can still ,as was shown, line up to produce too many consecutive losses. With just two of them that can ,already, be 6 consecutive losses. This can ,easily, turn into 7 or 8 consecutive losses ,with the next one. Btw, this can be observed in multiple states. So, this is a problem that needs to be solved.

                        jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
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                        Posted: November 1, 2014, 5:53 pm - IP Logged

                         Well, there's no reason for me to doubt you wrote it. The thought never even crossed my mind that you didn't. You've misunderstood what I meant. That is, why would you be writing software for Win D's method?

                        WinD is an online player as am I.  I spent a weekend writing software that can update all the draws for all the state games and organize it into various tables so you can easily see which states are in play for the double-trap.  I don't believe LotSoftPro does this but maybe it does but at the time it was dead until Winsum resurrected it again in Ricky's memory.  So I thought I would help out a fellow Pick 3 enthusiast.  The other tabs I added have nothing to do with doubles but probably interesting things to track in their own right.

                        1. Digit Tracker
                        2. Digit Pos Tracker
                        3. ShortSum Tracker
                        4. RootSum Tracker
                        5. Pair Tracker
                        6. Straight Position Tracker
                        7. Digit String Tracker
                        8. State Draw History

                        Now that LotSoftPro is back in all its glory the software I wrote is really not that useful anymore and I never wrote it to sell anyway.

                        So that is the history of the software, and my last comment on it and the double trap.

                        Jimmy

                          lakerben's avatar - spherewall
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                          Posted: November 1, 2014, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

                           Well, you're ignoring the fact ,as mentioned, that this is not an isolated case. As stated, this can be observed in multiple states. But, where do you get that I'm "running around yelling in red"? That was just one statement I've made in red.

                           Anyway, the problem with these doubles trap events is that they can still ,as was shown, line up to produce too many consecutive losses. With just two of them that can ,already, be 6 consecutive losses. This can ,easily, turn into 7 or 8 consecutive losses ,with the next one. Btw, this can be observed in multiple states. So, this is a problem that needs to be solved.

                          Sometimes it just takes commen sense.  That's it. Nm had 038 sum 11 thursday. The one digit was low in the last 20 draws. Easy pickings.

                          Five bucks get you $520 with this bet.

                          011

                          111

                          211

                          311

                          411

                          As a result, 011 hit last night.

                          No need for massive evaluation, fancy terms ,verbage, just simple logic.

                          Idea

                          How about them cowboys!

                           

                           

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                            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                            Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                            Posted: November 1, 2014, 6:32 pm - IP Logged

                            Well, Hello there Pick 3 guy. 

                             Here ya go. Just for you. Believe this much at least. Believe your own eyes looking at Jimmy's charts.

                             There are over ++25,000 draws per year around here. Of those draws each year .....we will get approx 7000 +/- Doubles. 

                                                                                                  AND SO....

                             

                             Most doubles fall way before they even get to the 8th ...9th ...or 10th draws.  In fact it averages out to OVER 90% that never make the 11th. draw ! 

                             The sweet spot .......is between the 8th and 10th draws as the best chance (+/-) or.... "Degree of Certainty"  If you want even MORE? Make it the 11th draw.     

                             ON AVERAGE.... Less than ......10% +/- of .......ALL doubles are left standing after that point and  .......ever make past the 11th draw! 

                                                                                                   

                                                                                                           Proof? Here ya go. 

                             Using Jimmy's charts for example. USING All 2013 draws .... only9.4 % that made it alive to the other side....and still standing.

                                                                     Do the math.  That SHOWS 91.6 % of the doubles have already hit by then. 

                                                                                                                 more ? 

                                                         In  2014 it was  8.48 % of all doubles ....... again over 90% of all doubles hit before then. 

                             

                               Most states only average around 99 doubles +/- per year per game. Most states see only 7 to 9 times a year of more than 10/11 double skips.

                                        If anyone can show an exception to this please show it.  You will succeed around 90% of the time when this occurs. True! 

                             

                             

                             

                             

                            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                   Win d    


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                              Posted: November 1, 2014, 6:37 pm - IP Logged

                              Pick3Guy is right the double trap has not performed very well in New York for 2014

                              Here is a snapshot (from software that I apparently did not write) where I have highlighted a few states.  The important column is "2014 Single Runs Greater than 6".

                              Double Trap Tracking History

                              This column tracks the number of times you had consecutive singles streak greater than 6 that was ended with a double.  You win on the trap play if you see 7, 8, or 9 in this column.  Anything greater than 9 and you lose.

                              Using New York Combined draws its easy to see it does not perform very well.

                              On the other hand the other two states South Carolina Pick 3 Evening, and Tennessee Cash 3 Evening it did perform well for 2014.  Random sure is a jokester.

                              Tialuvslotto has already correctly answered the question in that the trap works 61% of the time which is shown in the following screen shots again from software that I apparently did not write.

                              The left column 7 tells you how many times a double hit after 7 consecutive singles for all the U.S. Lottery games in 2014 so far.  The left column 8 tells you many times a double hit after 8 consecutive singles and so on.  So if you highlight the 3 traps 7, 8, 9 and add up the percentages you get approximately 61%.  I provided the history for both 2014 and 2013 and amazingly its 61% for both years.

                              Distribution of hits for 2014

                              Distribution of hits for 2013

                              In case you are interested here is the current list of state games where doubles have been missing for 7 or more draws.

                              Current state listing

                              Jimmy

                               Well, undoubtedly, the chart shows that ,in general, it works well and has had much success. But, the problem is with the wild swings between both consecutive wins and losses. But, in general, any method doing this would need to either be modified or tossed out.

                                 
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