Quote: Originally posted by PeerGynt on Sep 30, 2014
I scan read that page, and I'm not smart enough to fully grasp what the point was - whether pro or con systems.
But let me say this, as the starter of this thread, and (I hope) taking off from this and the original topic....
In a purely random universe of, let's just make it easy, between 1 and 100 numbers... and given enticing enough pay-out to even bother with the below example... one should, should, be able to develop a very simple system of consistent winning... involving patience, yes, but still....
It takes into account the simple law of probability.
For example:
I pick any ten numbers between 1 and 100. Let's say, 1 to 10. But, I want to win within a few draws, obviously, to maximize my wins. Even though, let's just say, I could go a larger number of draws before breaking even, and having to bow out.
But here's the problem: given the law of probability, I can't rely on simple percentages, etc. Because it's only ten percent of the total pool. And what if this time, the time I jump in, the 1-10 subset is a long out? or god forbid, an outlier? It could go very much beyond its "percentages" of success, and bankrupt my play.
But the rules of probability state: Long-outs and outliers don't rule: they're just normal conditions in a random system of play. And in a purely random universe, things remain pretty much constant.
So... easy way to solve this problem. You just do this:
1) Wait for your set to fire off, one of those ten numbers.
2) Now play the percentage of your subset that you feel has a comfortable margin of winning.
3) If it doesn't hit in, let's say, five plays, stop. Wait for it to fire off again. And begin the process, all over again.
Because, the law of averages says, at some point, the subset will fire off within five plays of it already firing off. And this is a consistency that, over time, is reliable.
I said above "should" be able to... because at least in the CA D3, from my own studies... no matter how big the pool you make... it doesn't follow these normal, rational, consistent laws. It defies them all. (Hear that, all you out there who like to live and breathe by the Bible of stats?)
... And it doesn't work exactly because people could play this strategy, over and over, to much success. CA made its algorithm exactly to avoid this.
So one is left... with systems, and theories, and all the etc.s