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So what would the "Holy Grail" of Pick 3 playing be?

Topic closed. 268 replies. Last post 2 years ago by Atomic Dog.

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Posted: September 17, 2014, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

There are a lot of great examples here, but they seem to miss what differentiates (to play with the original metaphor) a Dixie cup from a golden chalice.

Lots of these are best guesses.  Again, I can take a sampling of 10 numbers from the 120 singles boxes.  Sure, one could ride them for some plays... but they are notoriously uneven: you'll get rapid fire payoffs, then you might go long, long, LOOOOOONG stretches where your sampling won't fire... this is why the game uses an algorithm at all, to try to frustrate, well, the playahs.  And where are you at, when you jump into it, with your choice of ten?

To strangle the metaphor, what makes a plastic cup into a golden chalice, is that it contains a smallish pool of numbers that WILL pay off within a reasonable/manageable number of plays.  They won't swing from three in a row, to 100 plays later getting a hit (which is what many standard, simple, non-thought-out dividing of the boxes produces).

Not "might" pay off, or should pay off, or could pay off... will, pay off.

I am convinced the game is working off its own pools.  We can never know with total assurance what those pools are, but there are ways to get close: I'm convinced.  And so I continue searching (and many have come very close).

But the ideas put forth here are BRILLIANT!!!! The people who inhabit this board have had insights and come up with things that stagger me every time I log on here! All these insights are  extremely helpful, and I'm going to try to implement them anywhere I can. Smile

Golden chalice is prediction interval formula.


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    Posted: September 17, 2014, 11:08 pm - IP Logged

    What would the "Holy Grail" of playing the Pick 3 game look like?...

    Unless the game is completely corrupt (which it's not), it's not "knowing the winning number in advance," because that's literally impossible. But unless you believe the games (i.e., that aren't run off falling balls) are just randomly picking any number from 000-999 using no factors whatsoever… there has to be a reduced pool of numbers at work in any given play. And we here on lp all use filters to sift whatever pools we've improvised for our winning selections.

    So we have two tools at our disposal: pools, and filters.

    A filter isn't a pool, though often it looks like one. A "due sum," for example, isn't a pool, because there's no guarantee a due sum is coming in X number of plays.

    A pool is: A reduced set of numbers that are guaranteed within X number of plays to pay off.

    The only immediately guaranteed pool of numbers I know, is the pool of one thousand numbers.  Too big.  So we reduce it.

    You can, say, reduce it by half.  That's still 500 numbers.  One can measure the pay-off rate, and then create a formula for that pool.  But that pool is much too large for feasibility.

    But here's one guaranteed, dramatically reduced pool: playing boxes.  The pool of 120 singles boxes reduces the overall pool, and guarantees pay-off within (most of the time) one or two plays max.  Again, though, it's too large for our normal use, not to mention profitability.  So we filter those 120 boxes down.

    The Holy Grail, then, still wouldn't be ever finer filters applied to this 120 box pool - because filters can never take the place of a guaranteed pool.

    The Holy Grail of number sets - our working pools - would have to then have two elements: (1) Be reduced to a manageable amount, and (2) guaranteed to pay off within manageable amounts of plays.

    But what is "manageable"?  Debatable.  But I'd venture to say... speaking in terms of singles boxes only now...

    If one could discover (a) a pool of numbers somewhere between 10-20; that (b) was guaranteed to pay off within 10 plays (with, ideally, the bulk of such payoffs being less than about 1/2 that amount, i.e., < five to six plays consistently); and, as difficult as those two alone are, the necessary piéce de résistance: (cIf this pool could be calculated before any filter was ever applied to it.

    ... then that would indeed be the Holy Grail of the Pick 3 game.  Right? Smile

     Well, I'm not sure where you're getting your definitions of filter and pool from. But, a filter is a filter and a pool is a pool. You have a pool of numbers and you filter them down. There's no confusion with this.

     So, anyway, I've developed what can be considered the "holy grail" of the Pick 3 and I've been using it for a long time now. Yes, it involves a reduced set of numbers. Also, it provides a way to play in a very ordered and timely manner.  However, it does not guarantee that a set of numbers will hit within X number of plays. This ,I can tell you,  is not part of it. Nothing is guaranteed at any point with the game.

     Unfortunately, the "holy grail" of the Pick 3 is not what everyone wants ,or expects, it to be. It does not allow you to bang out $500 wins ,on the regular, playing just a few numbers. As mentioned, this is unrealistic. You can only beat the game on it's terms and not on yours. Basically, this is what it comes down to.

      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
      Dallas, Texas
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      Posted: September 17, 2014, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

      Nice discussion! Magic pools, percentages, and gut feelings. Lost on gut feeling Monday. Hunched 145. Came out Tuesday evening 415. sigh

      But MAGIC POOL!!!!!

      (Yes, another "Here we go dredging up a blast from the past" )

      Cliffs notes: Win D's thread on sum trapping. (circa. 2008 - 2010) Basically playing the sum that is out the longest. Good trap.

      Combined with another Win D's thread which asked is it better to play five digit wheel or a 6 digit wheel?

      Which leads to set trapping. The MAGIC POOL...a set of 5 or 6 numbers that are 1) hit often, and 2) have been missing longer than normal.

      How do we do that? We produce a chart something like this......

      x1 - x5 is the set, sng=singles, dbl=double, trp = triples, ln = longest out, crr= currently out, S% Single percentage, D% = double percentage. control group to the right. control group doesn't change every set containing 5 digit produces 60/60/5. 

      Or a six digit chart.....

      125 combinations vs 216. more hits. better at producing singles. hits more often, don't stay out as long.

      Either way you'll have a set of e/o, hi/lo. Wheel; check clean numbers.  Play. WIN!

      (if you don' win, you picked the wrong set. Try again and again and again.)

      This idea produces a good set, a good trap, and a good opportunity.

      Did I say Great thread yet?

      Great thread!

      G

      Peer,

      All the info is a breakdown of the drawings. You can't set a trap for numbers but you can take advantage of the natural traps  inherent to the game. A trap is any point at which the game is going to turn your Dixie cup into a golden chalice. Digits, sums, roots, even sets (or groups) will  sometimes go dry. A digit, sum, root, set that stays dry passed the percentages and/or passed the point of normal game play is setting its own trap.

      At some point we know this digit, sum, set has to hit. For example, in Texas, the digit3 has been out 27  draws in the third position. (sorry have to give you another chart to explain why this is a trap). P1 means First Position/digit 0. P2 = Second position/digits to the right of P2. Look at position 3/digit 3. P33 out 27 draws.

      How long do you think 3 will stay out? Forever? Moreover, P13 shows digit three has been out in the first position 17 draws. The average for any digit is 2.5 draws. Where is that3???? Dixie cup meet chalice. 

       

       

      Basically I'm doing the same thing with the charts in the first post. I have what I am tracking, the digits in that group as X1 - X5. I start the program at the lowest set (0,1,2,3,4) and let it run to the highest set (5,6,7,8,9). It counts every single, double, and triple and total hits produced by each set. On any count, singles, doubles ot triples, three of the digits in that group must it in the same draw. It also tracks the LNG, LONGEST that any set has stayed out, and the CRR, how long it is CURRENTLY out.

      The percentages are done in Excel. Those percentages aren't based on the total draws, rather singles, doubles and triples against the total draws in that set. They aren't necessary. I left the control numbers (everything to the right) to show there are 60 doubles 60 singles and 5 triples in every 5 digit set of numbers. I run the standard 1000 combinations as a control to ensure the program is giving an accurate count. Side note:  If you drop to 4 digit sets you have more doubles than singles.

      HOW DO YOU USE IS IT?

      I use it to find traps. No different than the digit 3 in the above example. You know three digits in that group HAVE TO HIT SOME TIME.

      Others use similar charts to find hot sets, or a good set for wheeling. Find a hot set or a due set (the chart lists all sets down to the set that hit last night), do a wheel and look for clean numbers or use hi/lo and e/o filters.

      Or maybe you want a set that produces more doubles or more singles. You can find that too.

      It's another tool to help turn the Dixie cup into a golden chalice.

       

      G

       

      FINAL NOTE: 3 hit in the first position tonight.  3-8-9 was the Texas night draw. 583 and 593 won't pay. Confused But that the way a trap works. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

      My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

        jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
        Park City, UT
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        Posted: September 17, 2014, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

        I hadn't run my Pick3Tracker program I created for a while and I saw where Michigan Evening is on a current streak of 27 straight singles.  I thought there might be a bug in my program but it appears to be correct.  27 straight singles!!!

        Michigan Pick 3 Evening

        My strategy would be to wait for a double to hit and then play doubles hard to hit again.

        Jimmy

          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
          Park City, UT
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          Posted: September 17, 2014, 11:46 pm - IP Logged

          Here is a picture of the current longest out digit by State games.  Typically once a box digit is missing more than 14 games its time to consider playing it.

          Longest Out Box Digit by State Games

          Jimmy

            jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
            Park City, UT
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            Posted: September 18, 2014, 12:07 am - IP Logged

            Here is a picture of WinD's doubles trap.  WinD's double trap is you wait until a game has had 7 consecutive singles and then you play doubles for next 3 draws.

            If a double has not hit after 3 draws then you cut your losses and you stop playing.  I highlighted the box that shows what the consecutive singles count was at the time the double hit.  You can see if you were playing the window 7 thru 9 you would have been right a good number of times.

            As you can see the online player will have a target state games to play every day. 

            On 09/13/2014 you had 5 separate games have a double hit in the window 7 thru 9.

            On 09/16/2014 you had 4 separate games hit a double exactly after 7 consecutive singles.  That was money in the bank!

            Looks like WinD really is an Advantage Player!

            WinD's Doubles Trap

            Jimmy

              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
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              Posted: September 18, 2014, 1:14 am - IP Logged

              Here is a picture of WinD's doubles trap.  WinD's double trap is you wait until a game has had 7 consecutive singles and then you play doubles for next 3 draws.

              If a double has not hit after 3 draws then you cut your losses and you stop playing.  I highlighted the box that shows what the consecutive singles count was at the time the double hit.  You can see if you were playing the window 7 thru 9 you would have been right a good number of times.

              As you can see the online player will have a target state games to play every day. 

              On 09/13/2014 you had 5 separate games have a double hit in the window 7 thru 9.

              On 09/16/2014 you had 4 separate games hit a double exactly after 7 consecutive singles.  That was money in the bank!

              Looks like WinD really is an Advantage Player!

              WinD's Doubles Trap

              Jimmy

              Using no filter other than playing doubles.

              From 09/06/2014 thru 09/17/2014 you had 16 hits after 7 consecutive singles.

              Cost to player 16*270=$4,320, winnings 16*900=$14,400  Net profit $10,080

              From 09/16/2014 thru 09/17/2014 you had 9 hits after 8 consecutive singles.

              Cost to player 9*540=$4,860, winnings 9*900=$8,100  Net profit $3,240

              From 09/16/2014 thru 09/17/2014 you had 3 hits after 9 consecutive singles.

              Cost to player 3*810=$2,430, winnings 3*900=$2,700  Net profit $270

              From 09/16/2014 thru 09/17/2014 you had 5 games where a double did not hit in 3 draws.  We stop after 3 draws.

              Cost to player 5*$810=$4050.  Net loss $4,050

              Currently there are 2 games with current consecutive single counts greater than 9 that we have not accounted for yet so 2*810=$1,620.  Net loss $1,620

              Total profit = $10,080 + $3,240 + $270 - $4,050 - $1,620 = $7920 in 12 days.

              Jimmy

                CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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                Posted: September 18, 2014, 4:58 am - IP Logged

                The last 3 draws in the NM pick3 morning draws were:

                 

                672

                367

                802

                The 90% numbers hit at 0% and at a cost of $132.

                I rest my case.

                Drum

                Where did I say the combos, I posted had a hit rate of 90%? The hit avg is 3 draws. Let GaryO, Tia, Win D & JJ posts sink in, you may learn something. It may not be to late. Your post was not about Knockout, it was about 27-Sum.

                  Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
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                  Posted: September 18, 2014, 6:51 am - IP Logged

                   Well, I'm not sure where you're getting your definitions of filter and pool from. But, a filter is a filter and a pool is a pool. You have a pool of numbers and you filter them down. There's no confusion with this.

                   So, anyway, I've developed what can be considered the "holy grail" of the Pick 3 and I've been using it for a long time now. Yes, it involves a reduced set of numbers. Also, it provides a way to play in a very ordered and timely manner.  However, it does not guarantee that a set of numbers will hit within X number of plays. This ,I can tell you,  is not part of it. Nothing is guaranteed at any point with the game.

                   Unfortunately, the "holy grail" of the Pick 3 is not what everyone wants ,or expects, it to be. It does not allow you to bang out $500 wins ,on the regular, playing just a few numbers. As mentioned, this is unrealistic. You can only beat the game on it's terms and not on yours. Basically, this is what it comes down to.

                  "Unfortunately, the "holy grail" of the Pick 3 is not what everyone wants ,or expects, it to be. It does not allow you to bang out $500 wins ,on the regular, playing just a few numbers. As mentioned, this is unrealistic. You can only beat the game on it's terms and not on yours. Basically, this is what it comes down to."

                  Well said, Pick3Guy!  I agree that it is necessary to try to understand the flow of the game in order to predict what will happen next.

                  "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

                  ~Robert A. Heinlein

                    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                    Dallas, Texas
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                    Posted: September 18, 2014, 1:41 pm - IP Logged

                    Jimmy,

                    You piqued my curiosity. I had to know.

                    27 draws in a row is the longest doubles have been out in Texas.

                    Notice it started with three doubles in a row and ended with three doubles in a row!!!!!!!

                    I smell further investigation. Wink

                     

                    G

                    My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                      PeerGynt's avatar - nw archer.jpg
                      Simi Valley, CA
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                      Posted: September 18, 2014, 11:45 pm - IP Logged

                      Peer,

                      All the info is a breakdown of the drawings. You can't set a trap for numbers but you can take advantage of the natural traps  inherent to the game. A trap is any point at which the game is going to turn your Dixie cup into a golden chalice. Digits, sums, roots, even sets (or groups) will  sometimes go dry. A digit, sum, root, set that stays dry passed the percentages and/or passed the point of normal game play is setting its own trap.

                      At some point we know this digit, sum, set has to hit. For example, in Texas, the digit3 has been out 27  draws in the third position. (sorry have to give you another chart to explain why this is a trap). P1 means First Position/digit 0. P2 = Second position/digits to the right of P2. Look at position 3/digit 3. P33 out 27 draws.

                      How long do you think 3 will stay out? Forever? Moreover, P13 shows digit three has been out in the first position 17 draws. The average for any digit is 2.5 draws. Where is that3???? Dixie cup meet chalice. 

                       

                       

                      Basically I'm doing the same thing with the charts in the first post. I have what I am tracking, the digits in that group as X1 - X5. I start the program at the lowest set (0,1,2,3,4) and let it run to the highest set (5,6,7,8,9). It counts every single, double, and triple and total hits produced by each set. On any count, singles, doubles ot triples, three of the digits in that group must it in the same draw. It also tracks the LNG, LONGEST that any set has stayed out, and the CRR, how long it is CURRENTLY out.

                      The percentages are done in Excel. Those percentages aren't based on the total draws, rather singles, doubles and triples against the total draws in that set. They aren't necessary. I left the control numbers (everything to the right) to show there are 60 doubles 60 singles and 5 triples in every 5 digit set of numbers. I run the standard 1000 combinations as a control to ensure the program is giving an accurate count. Side note:  If you drop to 4 digit sets you have more doubles than singles.

                      HOW DO YOU USE IS IT?

                      I use it to find traps. No different than the digit 3 in the above example. You know three digits in that group HAVE TO HIT SOME TIME.

                      Others use similar charts to find hot sets, or a good set for wheeling. Find a hot set or a due set (the chart lists all sets down to the set that hit last night), do a wheel and look for clean numbers or use hi/lo and e/o filters.

                      Or maybe you want a set that produces more doubles or more singles. You can find that too.

                      It's another tool to help turn the Dixie cup into a golden chalice.

                       

                      G

                       

                      FINAL NOTE: 3 hit in the first position tonight.  3-8-9 was the Texas night draw. 583 and 593 won't pay. Confused But that the way a trap works. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

                      Thanks, Garyo.  I now realize, with your clarification, that this and that previous chart weren't actual consultation charts themselves, but samples of tracking programs.  I gotta get into these more, my game certainly needs improving. 

                      "Traps" are the same kind of thing I have in mind when I use the term "pools": a way of cornering the game, forcing it to play what it eventually must, or bust. But it's a hard game... anything that's due, is by definition "long out" - how can anyone know if something is due unless it's, for lack of a better term, "visible"?  And what's visible to us, is visible to the game: so it can drag it out, because the longer these long-outs are dragged, the more attractive they become to pursuers, and the more money such pursuers throw at it, etc.  It's a difficult thing.  But no one ever said it'd be easy. Smiley

                        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                        Dallas, Texas
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                        Posted: September 19, 2014, 1:57 am - IP Logged

                        Thanks, Garyo.  I now realize, with your clarification, that this and that previous chart weren't actual consultation charts themselves, but samples of tracking programs.  I gotta get into these more, my game certainly needs improving. 

                        "Traps" are the same kind of thing I have in mind when I use the term "pools": a way of cornering the game, forcing it to play what it eventually must, or bust. But it's a hard game... anything that's due, is by definition "long out" - how can anyone know if something is due unless it's, for lack of a better term, "visible"?  And what's visible to us, is visible to the game: so it can drag it out, because the longer these long-outs are dragged, the more attractive they become to pursuers, and the more money such pursuers throw at it, etc.  It's a difficult thing.  But no one ever said it'd be easy. Smiley

                        Peer,

                        Thanks for the kind words.

                        Bubble Burst: Those are the actual charts I use. All the results were from the Texas lottery up to whatever day they were posted.  I confess to adding extraneous fluff with a purpose.

                        You never know how many guests, or how many lurkers, or new members are going to read a post. I remember.......no, I'm too old to remember, but when I first came to LP everything was confusing. I'd read a post and think, "Where did that come from," "What does that mean," and I'd go search for the answer.

                        I still ask myself "What does that mean?" Not always for the same reason though.

                        But I was a lurker who read threads and wore the search function out.  Now, when I reply I try to be as comprehensive as possible so the lurkers and new people don't feel confused or that we just wasted 20 minutes of their life. And with such a wide audience, its hard to judge what enough is.

                        Truth: Any chart I post is produced by programs I've written using real draws. And that's not uncommon here. Many of us program for our own use. BTW, the info on 3 was as real as it gets. Three hit in the 3rd position tonight. Hopefully someone read the post and took advantage of it.

                        Of course, I look at traps as fun plays. That's where you can pad your bankroll, or cut your losses depending on how you play, i.e., how often you play and whether you maintain a positive cash flow. With a trap you know you have it, the lottery commission can't hide it forever and all you have to do is follow through with the proper amount of bets.

                        Where we screw up is trying to save a dollar!!!!

                        Too many high numbers have fallen, too many evens, or that digit just hit two in a row. We can find 50 ways to save buck and then wonder WHY? after the draw, when that last combination we eliminated, hits.

                        Whatever is hidden is what we're all looking for. And when we find it, we suddenly become thrifty, responsible adults and save the buck that would have become $500. 

                        G

                          Blackapple's avatar - nw rogue2.jpg
                          Wyncote,Pa
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                          Posted: September 19, 2014, 5:35 pm - IP Logged
                          Posted: September 16,  2014, 3:28 pm - IP Logged
                          These states got the triggers on 9/15.....
                          thus within 3 days ...9/18..Short sum 0  or 5 hits ...90% of the time
                           
                           
                           
                          Arkansas 3-8-1
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                          Arkansas
                           3-8-1
                           
                          Wed, Sep 17, 20149-5-6
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
                           
                          Florida
                          4-0-2
                           
                          Tue, Sep 16, 20141-7-2
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

                          Indiana
                          0-4-5
                           
                          Thu, Sep 18, 20144-0-6
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
                           
                           

                          Missouri
                          4-9-9
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

                          Nebraska
                          8-3-8
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\

                          North Carolina
                          4-9-3
                           
                          Tue, Sep 16, 20148-5-7
                           
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
                           

                          Ohio
                          3-8-1
                          Thu, Sep 18, 20146-0-9
                           
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
                           
                           

                          Ontario
                          1-3-0
                           
                          Thu, Sep 18, 20144-2-9
                           
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
                           

                          Texas (Morn & Eve)
                          5-2-8
                           
                           
                          Wed, Sep 17, 20144-7-9
                          3-8-9
                          Tue, Sep 16, 20144-1-5
                          \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
                           
                           

                          Washington
                          3-8-0
                           
                          Tue, Sep 16, 20148-9-8
                            Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
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                            Posted: September 20, 2014, 2:19 pm - IP Logged

                            Thanks, Garyo.  I now realize, with your clarification, that this and that previous chart weren't actual consultation charts themselves, but samples of tracking programs.  I gotta get into these more, my game certainly needs improving. 

                            "Traps" are the same kind of thing I have in mind when I use the term "pools": a way of cornering the game, forcing it to play what it eventually must, or bust. But it's a hard game... anything that's due, is by definition "long out" - how can anyone know if something is due unless it's, for lack of a better term, "visible"?  And what's visible to us, is visible to the game: so it can drag it out, because the longer these long-outs are dragged, the more attractive they become to pursuers, and the more money such pursuers throw at it, etc.  It's a difficult thing.  But no one ever said it'd be easy. Smiley

                            Long-out digits, pairs, combinations, long-out anything can be some of the most frustrating aspects of the Pick 3 game, because it is hard to know when it is out long enough to actually make a wager.

                            Have you gone into the archives and read posts by Thoth?  If not, highly recommended.  Anyway, Thoth always maintained that the best way to play the game was to target the 50% of opportunities UNDER the median, rather than chasing numbers that were OVER their median, as the former had an upper limit of play -- that is when the  median is hit.

                            Of course, you can always set limits on over-median play.  For example, WIN D's double trap -- jump in when a double hasn't played for 7 games, but only play for 3 games.

                            Tracking is key to knowing what these limits might be.

                            "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

                            ~Robert A. Heinlein

                              WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                              Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                              Posted: September 20, 2014, 6:28 pm - IP Logged

                              Long-out digits, pairs, combinations, long-out anything can be some of the most frustrating aspects of the Pick 3 game, because it is hard to know when it is out long enough to actually make a wager.

                              Have you gone into the archives and read posts by Thoth?  If not, highly recommended.  Anyway, Thoth always maintained that the best way to play the game was to target the 50% of opportunities UNDER the median, rather than chasing numbers that were OVER their median, as the former had an upper limit of play -- that is when the  median is hit.

                              Of course, you can always set limits on over-median play.  For example, WIN D's double trap -- jump in when a double hasn't played for 7 games, but only play for 3 games.

                              Tracking is key to knowing what these limits might be.

                              Wish we could archive his post in an accessible place.

                               

                               

                              The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                            Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                            Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                     Win d    

                                 
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