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LottoMetro

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Dec 24, 2014, 7:47 pm

Yup, when I heard the proposed changes my jaw literally dropped and I said, "Is that the best they could come up with?"

They're supposed to get the results from new market research in early January, so I hope that it turns out to be a wake-up call.

Part of the problem is their vendor contract requires them to adhere to the original matrix, pricing etc. In order to get around this they would have to overhaul the whole agreement which would take months. Plus, good luck getting everyone to agree on anything. It was hard enough with the game as it is (took 5+ years).

They're trying to time the re-launch with the TV show because at this point, it's really their last hope. As far as the money carrying over, I have no clue what that means in regards to the jackpot and Club prizes. It makes zero sense because there is NO money. I am starting to wonder if the lotteries are even aware of that. I am not privy to being high on the ladder so maybe there is money floating around that I'm not aware of. Or maybe they just want to continue winging it.

Also, I found out that the lotteries don't pay for the production of the TV show....that's solely on the vendor. I suppose that's good

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
gatorsrok

Jacksonville
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Dec 24, 2014, 7:56 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Dec 24, 2014
Yup, when I heard the proposed changes my jaw literally dropped and I said, "Is that the best they could come up with?"

They're supposed to get the results from new market research in early January, so I hope that it turns out to be a wake-up call.

Part of the problem is their vendor contract requires them to adhere to the original matrix, pricing etc. In order to get around this they would have to overhaul the whole agreement which would take months. Plus, good luck getting everyone to agree on anything. It was hard enough with the game as it is (took 5+ years).

They're trying to time the re-launch with the TV show because at this point, it's really their last hope. As far as the money carrying over, I have no clue what that means in regards to the jackpot and Club prizes. It makes zero sense because there is NO money. I am starting to wonder if the lotteries are even aware of that. I am not privy to being high on the ladder so maybe there is money floating around that I'm not aware of. Or maybe they just want to continue winging it.

Also, I found out that the lotteries don't pay for the production of the TV show....that's solely on the vendor. I suppose that's good

Well given their vendor contract, I suspect they are largely stuck with the current format.

The only benefit of nobody being aware of the game is that the TV show might be the first many people hear about it. Therefore, they may get an initial boost of sales when it re-launches. But I expect the sales will drop again when the novelty wears off and people realize how bad the odds really are for the prizes.

In any event, keep us posted since we cannot rely on the state lotteries or the MMC vendor to give us any useful information.
ThatScaryChick

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Dec 24, 2014, 8:14 pm
Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Dec 24, 2014
For whatever reason my original poll/MMC topic was closed, so I am posting an update here. This information was released today and only proposed 2 days ago, so it is literally the latest. It's not much different than what I expected.....basically the lotteries are focused on reducing the prize liability.

So far this tentative proposal consists of:
- Starting jackpot at $5 million annuity
- Starting Club prizes at 1 and rolling based on sales
- Alternatively (and/or), reduce the amounts on fixed prizes
Supposedly they want to restart near the end of January but carry over remainder from this Friday's drawing. I don't see how any money would carry over though.

To summarize, instead of addressing the issue of players being unwilling to pay $5 a pop, they are just making the value proposition worse. They even admit that the changes could worsen sales, but since the liability will be much lower they will be able to sustain the game, at least until the TV show airs (still happening btw).

As I also suspected, there is indeed conflict among the states regarding what to next. To be honest, based on the vibe I'm getting, I don't see Monopoly surviving after 2015. I think one of the reasons is the vendor's contract and how the game was set up. It's even more complicated by the fact that this is a licensed property. I would also blame stubbornness. They are just determined to play the game at $5, regardless how bad the prize matrix is.
I was actually hoping that when they went on break and back to the drawing board that they were going to make improvements. Instead they made it worse. Geez.

"X - youtube - steam - instagram"

ThatScaryChick
Crazy Wombat

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Dec 24, 2014, 10:41 pm

I'm sorry the game is DEAD as far as I'm concerned ... they are trying to make a zombie game ... return from the dead ... not going to work for me.

I bought my last ticket for this Friday (Dec 26) ... if there is no jackpot winner then I move on.

Why would a person want to spend $5 on a game to win less than before?

This turkey is dead and now they are trying to prop it up and put the feathers back on with duct tape and glue.

I will also not play the new PB in April ... reminds me too much of this game in one way ... confusing !

CW
LottoMetro

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Dec 25, 2014, 12:04 am

Quote: Originally posted by Crazy Wombat on Dec 24, 2014
I'm sorry the game is DEAD as far as I'm concerned ... they are trying to make a zombie game ... return from the dead ... not going to work for me.

I bought my last ticket for this Friday (Dec 26) ... if there is no jackpot winner then I move on.

Why would a person want to spend $5 on a game to win less than before?

This turkey is dead and now they are trying to prop it up and put the feathers back on with duct tape and glue.

I will also not play the new PB in April ... reminds me too much of this game in one way ... confusing !

CW

And can you imagine the rollovers? Would likely increase at the same rate but since they would be starting at one it could take 5 or more draws just to get to 10 prizes. Not to mention it would take longer to reach the jackpot cap. Players already complaining how it increases too slow. This is a disaster just waiting. I have no idea who feeds these guys their ideas. Someone who doesn't understand economics I guess. You can only put so much lipstick on a pig.

I get the need to operate within liability limits...it's their job to ensure that states are not put at financial risk.

Unfortunately I don't get the logic behind their proposal. If you screw the player even more, then they will quit playing, which just makes the liability higher again. Powerball and Mega Millions have succeeded because the player interest has always been high enough to keep the excess liability low. Why do players stay interested? The value proposition! If you have a game that has payouts comparable to the odds (regardless how high), then it will do well. It's true that PB sales have declined due to poor jackpots, but at least they're not running a deficit! And PB/MM have more flexibility with their matrices, since they're not licensed IP.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
GiveFive

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Dec 25, 2014, 8:32 am

Why do players stay interested? The value proposition! If you have a game that has payouts comparable to the odds (regardless how high), then it will do well.

Exactly! And it's the reason why NY's 6/40 game, Sweet Million, did so poorly. According to The NY Lottery "underperformed". But WHY did it under-perform??? Because it offer a lousy value proposition.

Apparently the folks that get paid to design lottery games don't give players enough credit. Players are smarter than they think they are, and more importantly, players vote with their wallets. If you offer them crap, players will punish you.

The design of NY's Sweet Million was flawed from the get go. Low tier prizes that were hard to win with pay outs that were insulting to a players intelligence.

Play Smart!
Ron5995

Wyomissing, PA
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Dec 25, 2014, 10:32 am

According to NY Lottery Sweet Million info page, only 40% is allocated towards prizes. That's really bad considering most numbers games are around 50%, which itself is lousy. NY Lotto isn't much better, since it's also 40%, but has one saving grace in that the prizes aren't fixed, and jackpot can roll-over, which can improve the value proposition for some players, such as those who wait until the jackpot is $10 million+ to play.

Some lotteries, at least for their own in-state games, are doing better ... NY Cash4Life has ~55% payout, and some numbers games, such as PA Treasure Hunt (58% according to Wikipedia - not able to verify, but seems plausible), go even higher, approaching 60%. More value will bring more players. Simple.

As for Monopoly Millionaires Club, I've come across some notices on various state lottery websites insisting the Vegas tv show will go on as scheduled, and further imply the number game is being reworked, and will return at some point soon.

Another LP member asked in a related thread whether the final draw prizes would be roll-down or fixed - all indications were, and still are, they will be normal payouts. And the various other state lottery websites I've visited (I didn't visit all of them) offering MMC makes no mention of final payouts, except one ... Pennsylvania. PA Lottery website says if there is no "top prize" winner(s), whatever remaining, extra funds will go towards boosting lower tier prizes...

Not sure if that's a nationwide thing, or something PA is doing based on its own share of payments / revenue from the game. Seems odd any MMC jurisdiction would even mention roll-downs from extra funds, if the MMC game was scheduled to return anytime soon. Or perhaps, it's PA Lottery's own way to keep players loyal to the PA Lottery. Don't know. Hoping PA does the right thing, and rewards players - pay out a little extra for the final draw, and ditch that MMC turkey for good.
LottoMetro

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Dec 25, 2014, 11:28 am

Interesting about PA.

They happen to be the lottery that proposed all the remaining money be returned to the respective states. I don't know how MUSL voting procedures work, whether proposals have to be unanimous or not, but only 13 of the 21 members that attended the recent conference voted in favor of PA's idea.

I am still not sure what they mean by "remaining money," since there is a deficit. I have a feeling they mean the proportion of sales that each lottery contributes to the jackpot(s) each drawing. When there is a jackpot hit and a deficit they actually have to send money, which means the previous win may have already been paid for. That's the only way I can imagine any money being left to return, although any good accountant could see they will still have a net loss.

No state in the group has (internally) said anything about a roll-down, but I guess the lotteries can choose to give that back to players or not. I don't see why they would when they already have had to pay more than they've received. Might make a little good PR but it would wear off and likely have to be taken down the road.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
Crazy Wombat

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Dec 25, 2014, 11:52 am

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Dec 25, 2014
Interesting about PA.

They happen to be the lottery that proposed all the remaining money be returned to the respective states. I don't know how MUSL voting procedures work, whether proposals have to be unanimous or not, but only 13 of the 21 members that attended the recent conference voted in favor of PA's idea.

I am still not sure what they mean by "remaining money," since there is a deficit. I have a feeling they mean the proportion of sales that each lottery contributes to the jackpot(s) each drawing. When there is a jackpot hit and a deficit they actually have to send money, which means the previous win may have already been paid for. That's the only way I can imagine any money being left to return, although any good accountant could see they will still have a net loss.

No state in the group has (internally) said anything about a roll-down, but I guess the lotteries can choose to give that back to players or not. I don't see why they would when they already have had to pay more than they've received. Might make a little good PR but it would wear off and likely have to be taken down the road.

Well this is all very interesting about more money for lower tier prizes in the final draw and the turkey game possibly coming back.

So far I'm not reading anything about the big Monopoly Hats ... maybe there is still hope for hats to be given away.

OK, OK ... I know there are NO surplus hats laying around ... if they do bring this turkey game back in 2015 ... are there going to be Hats ???

I might accept paying $5 for a ticket to win "nothing" or "very little" ... but if there are no more Monopoly Hats, that's where I draw the line!

Maybe by 3pm today there will be more details on the Hats.

.... well, hats or no hats, Dec 26 is my last ticket purchase unless the new revamped game has a 90% payout.

CW
LottoMetro

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Dec 25, 2014, 12:13 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Crazy Wombat on Dec 25, 2014
Well this is all very interesting about more money for lower tier prizes in the final draw and the turkey game possibly coming back.

So far I'm not reading anything about the big Monopoly Hats ... maybe there is still hope for hats to be given away.

OK, OK ... I know there are NO surplus hats laying around ... if they do bring this turkey game back in 2015 ... are there going to be Hats ???

I might accept paying $5 for a ticket to win "nothing" or "very little" ... but if there are no more Monopoly Hats, that's where I draw the line!

Maybe by 3pm today there will be more details on the Hats.

.... well, hats or no hats, Dec 26 is my last ticket purchase unless the new revamped game has a 90% payout.

CW

If they bring the game back, as long as it has the Monopoly theme, they will award Monopoly hats to MMC winners. It's part of the contract I've been mentioning.

And again, there are no hats. Each lottery is given 3 samples for sizing purposes only and they're not allowed to give them away. Once they learn the winner's head size, then the hats are produced and shipped directly to each winner. So it's not like the lottery has a stockpile, like they do with their branded t-shirts and mugs.

I'm hoping they raise the payout to at least 60% but based on the proposal I've seen, not happening. They would rather take from the player and accept lower sales than give more to the player with the likelihood of higher sales. It's all about risk management. They have a "sure thing" by reducing the proportional prize liability.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
Crazy Wombat

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Dec 25, 2014, 12:28 pm

This is what is posted at the PA Lottery site concerning the drawing on Dec 26th ...

Final MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES' CLUB Drawing: December 26, 2014

If no ticket is sold containing the winning numbers necessary to claim the Top Prize for the MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES’ CLUB game drawing to take place on Dec. 26, 2014, the remaining Top Prize pool money will be reallocated proportionately among prize levels 2-10.

In other words, if the Top Prize isn’t won and therefore MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES’ CLUB prizes are not awarded, then all other prize levels will increase by an amount determined at the conclusion of the drawing.

... if we knew more about all this ... maybe buying some extra tickets would make sense ... I don't know.

Like what was asked earlier, is this just a PA thing or are the other states also going this route ... what about the people in TX, they can no longer buy tickets for the last draw ... or did they start selling tickets again for the final drawing?

CW
LottoMetro

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Dec 25, 2014, 12:37 pm

Quote: Originally posted by Crazy Wombat on Dec 25, 2014
This is what is posted at the PA Lottery site concerning the drawing on Dec 26th ...

Final MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES' CLUB Drawing: December 26, 2014

If no ticket is sold containing the winning numbers necessary to claim the Top Prize for the MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES’ CLUB game drawing to take place on Dec. 26, 2014, the remaining Top Prize pool money will be reallocated proportionately among prize levels 2-10.

In other words, if the Top Prize isn’t won and therefore MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES’ CLUB prizes are not awarded, then all other prize levels will increase by an amount determined at the conclusion of the drawing.

... if we knew more about all this ... maybe buying some extra tickets would make sense ... I don't know.

Like what was asked earlier, is this just a PA thing or are the other states also going this route ... what about the people in TX, they can no longer buy tickets for the last draw ... or did they start selling tickets again for the final drawing?

CW

"the remaining Top Prize pool money will be reallocated proportionately among prize levels 2-10."

Will be interesting to see how much those prizes increase, if they even do. Like I said, there is no money, which makes me wonder if they're just posting this to appease players. PA has only contributed around $1.5 million to the Top Prize since the beginning of the game. They're in the hole like everyone else.

As far as I know, there are no other states even mentioning this. It's preposterous because there is no money. No matter how the game ends it will be in the red. Any lottery attempting to cover up this or suggest otherwise is just being plain deceptive. If my state increase the lower prizes I would be calling my legislators.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1
Crazy Wombat

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Dec 25, 2014, 12:43 pm

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on Dec 25, 2014
"the remaining Top Prize pool money will be reallocated proportionately among prize levels 2-10."

Will be interesting to see how much those prizes increase, if they even do. Like I said, there is no money, which makes me wonder if they're just posting this to appease players. PA has only contributed around $1.5 million to the Top Prize since the beginning of the game. They're in the hole like everyone else.

As far as I know, there are no other states even mentioning this. It's preposterous because there is no money. No matter how the game ends it will be in the red. Any lottery attempting to cover up this or suggest otherwise is just being plain deceptive. If my state increase the lower prizes I would be calling my legislators.

LM ... yes that's the question ... if we knew more about everything ... buying more tickets for the final drawing would make no sense if there really is no "extra money" to be distributed ... I will probably just stick with my one ticket and see what happens.

Not much time left to get more information before the drawing ... whether to buy a few extra tickets or not.

CW
KY Floyd

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Dec 26, 2014, 1:18 am

" the remaining Top Prize pool money will be reallocated proportionately among prize levels 2-10. "

If I win anything at all in next Saturday's PB drawing I'll give you the winnings or a million bucks, whichever is more.

I won't break that promise, but it's worthless because I won't have a PB ticket. I'm guessing that the PA lottery's promise isn't worth much more. They can keep the promise by giving everybody an extra nothing if there isn't anything available after paying off the previous jackpot prize. In the meantime some players may get a warm, fuzzy feeling, or even buy extra tickets that will almost certainly earn the states another $2 a pop.

It's possible they'll actually be handing out some extra big prizes, but what are the odds and how much would it be? The last drawing will be the 10th, and IIRC they've never sold 1 million tickets for a drawing, so let's generously figure total sales of $50 million. With about 32% (again, IIRC, and based on that being 32% of gross sales and not 32% of the 60% of sales that goes towards prizes) going to the jackpot prize pool the total prize pool for the entire run of 10 drawings would be $15 million. The cash payout for the jackpot winner was about $12.8 million, so that would leave a positive balance of $2.2 million IF they actually had total sales averaging 1 million tickets per drawing. I think that's a pretty big "if".
"I get the need to operate within liability limits"If they just rode it out with the original format they probably would operate within the liability limits just be letting probability work over the long haul. The risk is that improbable things can happen and if there's a jackpot winner the guaranteed prizes cost at least $18 million. That's a fair amount of money when it's 4 weeks of gross sales, and it seems they're unwilling to take that risk.If they were stupid enough to get locked into the $5 ticket cost and the long odds I don't see any way of fixing the game. Reducing the jackpot and basing the number of millionaire club prizes on actual sales will reduce the risk, but there's not much upside to a game that earns $52 million per year and then splitting that between 20 states. That hypothetical $52 million is based on the 40% share the lotteries would get from 52 drawings selling 500,000 tickets, which seems very generous in light of actual sales and vastly reduced payouts, with no reduction for actual operating costs.
joshuacloak

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Dec 26, 2014, 3:08 am

I sure don't even know wtf there doing anymore. Ever single lottery sucks so much at being 100% clear.

TO BE CLEAR, the prize fund is reset after it's won. they had to eat the lost form last win.

so going by current fund for prizes fund.................

It should be just over 6 million for jackpot + 1 million prize fund .......................... but again with lottery not talking, i have no freaking clue anymore.

Sense am so mad at lack of details, I share this long rant with everyone........

RANT ON==============

Also these top lottery folk, who are smart human beings am sure in lot of ways, but clueless how to design anything aimed at today's newer players.

Lottery CEO Terry Rich told Iowa Lottery board members:

"This new game spreads the wealth and does what consumers' want," Rich said.

He predicted the new lottery product would have "millennial" appeal to players in their 20s and 30s with its interactive components while older players will get a "throw-back feel" from the new "main-stay" game with an iconic Hasbro brand.

They don't have a freaking clue about millennial players, they nearly never talk to us directly, they rather hide behind market research that fails so hard.............

Am a millennial and it's killing me how many clueless people are in power of these large companies, there so out of touch with my world it's painful dealing with them.

There a lot like freaking McDonald's leadership (they are also clueless about millennials and it's costing them big time in sells, and there largest fast food giant in world for crying out loud!)

I even contacted McDonald's recently, as I love there food taste, but man there stupid at the top.

And just like state lottery they don't even brother at all....

True Story, they was testing a new build your own burger at special store but you had to go INTO store and use these retarded computer terminals to do so.

And they make your burger with any topping you want and etc, besides terminal thing, it was rather nice (idea) and i can't wait to roll it out to more stores.

It has major issues btw, pricing was a joke, you could just go up to old fashion sales clerks and get same burger for much less if you had have half a brain by asking for this or that topping replacement on a current burger they already make vs a costume made one form terminal.

Aka they was ripping people off, and while they could of fooled older idiots, it was not working with me.

But i seen a chance to make future greatness, so I made mistake of even brothering to email them and try to help SUGGEST something that blow up sales even more.

I send a email. suggesting, just suggesting A BETTER way, they should give us a app to build our own order - burger the way we want it on our smart phone, Not having to go into a store and do it on that joke of a computer terminal. aka drive thro order.

This is what I got back.

_________________

Thank you for reaching out to us regarding the possibility of a new product or service. We sincerely appreciate your interest in McDonald’s.

As you might expect, each year McDonald’s receives thousands of unsolicited ideas and proposals for products and services from individuals and companies. Because of the volume of unsolicited ideas we receive, and the difficulty of sorting out concepts that have already been considered or developed by the McDonald’s System, we must adhere to a strict policy of not reviewing any unsolicited ideas that come from outside the McDonald’s family of employees, franchisees and approved suppliers. We realize that we may be missing out on a few good ideas, but we have had to adopt this policy for various legal and business reasons.

As a result, we must decline the invitation to consider your submission. We hope you understand our decision.

_________________

#1 it was feedback about real product they was testing at real a store!, not freaking unsolicited ideas. It's called feedback mcdonald's

They may as will put emailed me back this:

and they only pretend to stock holders to even understand millennials and why all the lack of sales...............

Matter of fact, that goes for double for lottery staff over at my tn lottery........

You ask these nitwits of my state lottery anything about looking for hard to find details:

All am wanting is just want a clear reply, hell I even take, sorry we don't know, but i will ask someone higher up who does know. We get back 2 you some day?

That's all it would take to make me happy................

Nope they can't even try to care.....

Not even that, it's just i can't hear you (so plz never contact us again)

Only person i had luck with was that top MUSL guy who replies back in person if you have a decent question, it just may take him a little bit sense he has to reply to every thing form everyone by him self.....

And what do you know, he tells me what i want to know about about hard to find "hot lotto" details sense my state just joined recently and is beyond clueless at the workings of it.

My point telling you all this, long as these clueless lottery people are in charge, these kinds of major mistakes will repeat, form major game design flaws . never market to us, if your not willing to talk 2 us.

And god bless there cs department hearts for even trying - it's just a joke of customer service!

Funny thing about this world, I ask any thing to a business who I know has a nearly all millennial staff even at ceo level in charge, anything at all, long as it's not a troll email, and i get back detailed as can be replies........

1 time what I got back was over 5000 words total answer, they even said sorry about the long reply, but you did ask.

so they shared all the details that was not public......... and I was very happy.

it's amazing the different level of care given by companies run by old people leadership for lack of putting it into better words, Vs newer people running things who are in my age group. it's like maybe we should not treat everyone like a cable company does" the gold medal winners of not even giving a "

Rant off===============

One tequila, two tequila, three tequila, floor.

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