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Monopoly Millionaires game

Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 2 years ago by LottoMetro.

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Happyland
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Posted: November 17, 2014, 8:48 pm - IP Logged

LottoMetro, just curious: how can the game show payout, 4.54% or whatever, be pre-set, since there is no way to know how much players will win on each show? Is that percentage the maximum amount of available prize money per show?

The same way they can set the payout % for fixed prizes in the base game, despite not knowing how many people will win! Wink

People who win the game show will basically do it by luck. Using the probabilities of winning each of the games, the designers can calculate their expected value depending on the prize awarded. Remember, these people think in terms of the long run. The actual payout might deviate for a few episodes but over the course of the series it will converge to the set payout. Just like the lottery. MUSL expects between 5-7 winners of the $1 million per TV season.

P.S. I am not 100% sure it is 4.54% in current form. That is what it was originally. I am sifting through the docs to see.

Edit:

Btw, looking through these things I came across the lottery's assessment of how many tickets it would take players to complete a property set. They say 5.6.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1


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    Posted: November 17, 2014, 10:11 pm - IP Logged

    Btw, looking through these things I came across the lottery's assessment of how many tickets it would take players to complete a property set. They say 5.6.

     

    Thanks for the info LottoMetro.
    That's interesting!
    A few weeks ago, Grengrad posted:
    "It would take on average 21 tickets, to get 20 more entries."
    But as far as I can tell, that was *not* taking into account every ticket gets two properties instead of one.
    So therefore, the average number of tickets would be cut in half to 10.5 tickets for 20 entries.
    If that's actually the case, it sounds pretty close to your MUSL figures, which say 11.2 tickets (on average) would get you two completed property sets.
    And the average value of each property set is 10.3 entries.
    So there you go.
    If I complete another set on the 6th ticket, I'll let you know! (and I really want to resist buying a seventh!)
      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
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      Posted: November 17, 2014, 10:47 pm - IP Logged

      I should also point out that this was back in May. I can't remember when they decided to add the bonus property(s) feature. I'm not joking when I say they were still making changes about a month or two before launch. I still haven't read through everything about it. The amount of internal content for this game, mostly documents, is close to a gigabyte (and for those kinds of files that is a lot). But 5.6 sounds pretty good so I'm assuming the bonus was factored in.

      I still haven't bought a single ticket. Considered doing it to get a last minute entry for the first second-chance draw but not sure I will get around to doing so.

      Good luck! Thumbs Up

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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        Wyomissing, PA
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        Posted: November 18, 2014, 11:48 am - IP Logged

        I should also point out that this was back in May. I can't remember when they decided to add the bonus property(s) feature. I'm not joking when I say they were still making changes about a month or two before launch. I still haven't read through everything about it. The amount of internal content for this game, mostly documents, is close to a gigabyte (and for those kinds of files that is a lot). But 5.6 sounds pretty good so I'm assuming the bonus was factored in.

        I still haven't bought a single ticket. Considered doing it to get a last minute entry for the first second-chance draw but not sure I will get around to doing so.

        Good luck! Thumbs Up

        So where's the detail on how the game show works? -or is that still a work in progress? I realize most players likely don't care one way or the other about the exact game show rules and payouts, but to me, the lack of clarity in that regard is troublesome; raises questions about the transparency and integrity of the overall MMC game.

        With that said, to reiterate what I posted previously, I'll still continue to occasionally play the MMC game, but not sold on it - there are better choices.

        MMC could be a great concept with some adjustments, such as, a million dollar raffle every draw that has no top prize winner - to pay for that, they could reduce the top prize to a fixed all cash $10 million.

          LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
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          Posted: November 18, 2014, 12:25 pm - IP Logged

          So where's the detail on how the game show works? -or is that still a work in progress? I realize most players likely don't care one way or the other about the exact game show rules and payouts, but to me, the lack of clarity in that regard is troublesome; raises questions about the transparency and integrity of the overall MMC game.

          With that said, to reiterate what I posted previously, I'll still continue to occasionally play the MMC game, but not sold on it - there are better choices.

          MMC could be a great concept with some adjustments, such as, a million dollar raffle every draw that has no top prize winner - to pay for that, they could reduce the top prize to a fixed all cash $10 million.

          It is still a WIP, pretty much set though. I do have details on the 11 games that will be on the show, but honestly, I haven't had time to analyze them yet.

          The problem with what you suggest is that it contradicts the motive of a lottery: award the most value, least often. The lottery wouldn't make any money if people won every draw. In the case of MMC, the top prize will be rarely hit; therefore, awarding million dollar raffles would occur practically every drawing, which would drive the lottery into the ground (they simply wouldn't be able to fund it). They couldn't even afford to award just one $1 million prize every drawing as it is.

          If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
          If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

          2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
          P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

            Tami333's avatar - winifrid
            Michigan
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            Posted: November 21, 2014, 8:27 pm - IP Logged

            I'm in for tonight, 3 tickets!  (A few of my numbers:  6-11-22-43-48)

            My properties:  01-Mediterranean, 06-Connecticut & 19-Atlantic

             

            For those entering their Webcode on-line;

            • Prize: Trip for Two to the MONOPOLY MILLIONAIRES' CLUB TV Game Show
            • Deadline: November 25, 2014
            • Drawing Date: December 2, 2014

            Good luck players!!

              RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
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              Posted: November 22, 2014, 1:07 am - IP Logged
              • Drawing Date: December 2, 2014

              Does this mean there won't be three ways to win after the draw date. 

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
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                Posted: November 22, 2014, 1:14 am - IP Logged
                • Drawing Date: December 2, 2014

                Does this mean there won't be three ways to win after the draw date. 

                Nah, it's continuous. Here's the next few drawing periods:

                • 11/26/2014 - 01/06/2015
                • 01/07/2015 - 02/17/2015
                • 02/18/2015 - 04/07/2015
                • 04/08/2015 - 05/19/2015

                ...and so on. There are currently 11 scheduled through 2016.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                  SammyJoe10's avatar - disney37
                  Middle of Nowhere NC
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                  Posted: November 24, 2014, 10:46 pm - IP Logged

                  According to the MMC website, 14 tickets worth a million dollars each were won on 11/7/14, yet only 6 winners have come forward. I wonder if these folks are even aware of the fact that that they have a winning ticket? I hope they come forward before misplacing the ticket or allowing it to expire!

                    Taurus$'s avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                    Ft. Washington, MD
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                    Posted: November 25, 2014, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

                    Nah, it's continuous. Here's the next few drawing periods:

                    • 11/26/2014 - 01/06/2015
                    • 01/07/2015 - 02/17/2015
                    • 02/18/2015 - 04/07/2015
                    • 04/08/2015 - 05/19/2015

                    ...and so on. There are currently 11 scheduled through 2016.

                    LM, i am curious as to how exactly are the MMC people picking winners. from the 2nd chance drawings. Are they some sort of computerized system or a paper raffle system. I have 164 entries and i wonder with that many entries how are they gonna pick a winner. Also i suspect there might be more entries than mine in maryland but i have no way of knowing that. I guess it doesn't matter how many entries you put in it's how lucky your entry pops up. I suspect they are using the web codes to puul a winner up

                    Taurus$

                      Tami333's avatar - winifrid
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                      Posted: November 26, 2014, 7:53 am - IP Logged

                      LM, i am curious as to how exactly are the MMC people picking winners. from the 2nd chance drawings. Are they some sort of computerized system or a paper raffle system. I have 164 entries and i wonder with that many entries how are they gonna pick a winner. Also i suspect there might be more entries than mine in maryland but i have no way of knowing that. I guess it doesn't matter how many entries you put in it's how lucky your entry pops up. I suspect they are using the web codes to puul a winner up

                      Taurus$

                      WOW, 164 entries, that is amazing!  I only have 6 entries. 

                      I have a feeling you will be selected.  Good luck!!!!

                        Taurus$'s avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                        Ft. Washington, MD
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                        Posted: November 26, 2014, 8:34 pm - IP Logged

                        WOW, 164 entries, that is amazing!  I only have 6 entries. 

                        I have a feeling you will be selected.  Good luck!!!!

                        LOL!!! thanks but anything can happen. i got to 164 on no less than about 40 tickets. not sure how i measure up to others. they might have more than me.

                        taurus$

                          LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
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                          Posted: November 26, 2014, 9:56 pm - IP Logged

                          LM, i am curious as to how exactly are the MMC people picking winners. from the 2nd chance drawings. Are they some sort of computerized system or a paper raffle system. I have 164 entries and i wonder with that many entries how are they gonna pick a winner. Also i suspect there might be more entries than mine in maryland but i have no way of knowing that. I guess it doesn't matter how many entries you put in it's how lucky your entry pops up. I suspect they are using the web codes to puul a winner up

                          Taurus$

                          Minimum 6 picked per state, computerized random drawing. Basically pool all the valid entries from the system and tell it to choose X winners (state-by-state).

                          Maryland sold 186,438 tickets up until last Friday's drawing. I estimate about 200,000 until the second-chance cutoff yesterday. So even if all ~200,000 tickets were entered online and all were first-time entries (which is near impossible), your chances would be about 1 in 3589, assuming the yield figures I previously calculated are accurate.* That is roughly your worst case scenario. More realistically, maybe 85% have been entered online with 50% first-time entries. That would better your odds to about 1 in 2160. In any event I would guesstimate your odds to be at least equal to or (more likely) worse than hitting a pick-3 straight. You probably have decent chances than most, but I've seen someone claim over 350 entries and that was 3 weeks ago. As mentioned in other posts, the hardest part is actually getting on the show after being selected. Sure you get spending money and a nice trip to Vegas, but everyone really wants to come home with a chunk of cash (especially after dropping so much on the game).

                          Keep us posted if you get picked! Thumbs Up The drawing should be next Tuesday.

                          *Interestingly, using (103/28*t)+10.3 yields a number of entries closer to your actual than the revised (103/14*t)+10.3 version, which accounts for 2 bonus properties/double yield. The exact math was left out of the documents I have access to and even the primary matrix file has been removed, unfortunately.

                          If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                          If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                          2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                          P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                            Taurus$'s avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                            Ft. Washington, MD
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                            Posted: November 26, 2014, 10:36 pm - IP Logged

                            Minimum 6 picked per state, computerized random drawing. Basically pool all the valid entries from the system and tell it to choose X winners (state-by-state).

                            Maryland sold 186,438 tickets up until last Friday's drawing. I estimate about 200,000 until the second-chance cutoff yesterday. So even if all ~200,000 tickets were entered online and all were first-time entries (which is near impossible), your chances would be about 1 in 3589, assuming the yield figures I previously calculated are accurate.* That is roughly your worst case scenario. More realistically, maybe 85% have been entered online with 50% first-time entries. That would better your odds to about 1 in 2160. In any event I would guesstimate your odds to be at least equal to or (more likely) worse than hitting a pick-3 straight. You probably have decent chances than most, but I've seen someone claim over 350 entries and that was 3 weeks ago. As mentioned in other posts, the hardest part is actually getting on the show after being selected. Sure you get spending money and a nice trip to Vegas, but everyone really wants to come home with a chunk of cash (especially after dropping so much on the game).

                            Keep us posted if you get picked! Thumbs Up The drawing should be next Tuesday.

                            *Interestingly, using (103/28*t)+10.3 yields a number of entries closer to your actual than the revised (103/14*t)+10.3 version, which accounts for 2 bonus properties/double yield. The exact math was left out of the documents I have access to and even the primary matrix file has been removed, unfortunately.

                            Wink yeah ok LM i will definetly let you and the post know if that happens. Like i said i could be a sure pick or not. Got my fingers crossed on this one. Whoa 350 entries!  That sounds impossible to accumulate in such a short period of time.

                            T$

                              noahwill's avatar - Lottery-023.jpg
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                              Posted: November 27, 2014, 7:03 am - IP Logged

                              What is the jackpot size for tonight? Can you play online?

                                 
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