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Monopoly Millionaires game

Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 2 years ago by LottoMetro.

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Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
United States
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June 29, 2011
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Posted: November 9, 2014, 2:24 pm - IP Logged

Still not sure why they are calling it a Millionaire's Club when you get ~600k after taxes depending on state. Either make it a solid million after taxes or call it the 600k club. LOL

Outside of that I am still sticking to not playing the game until the $25 million jackpot is capped and the amount of $600k winners is at least ~40-50. Good luck to all you gameshow entrants!

Jersey should call it the less then 1/2 millionaire club since you'd wind up w/ a little less then 500k

with our 10.8 % state tax.

 

Just like you I will play when it's capped, count me in the camp that likes a lot of people to win a MIL.

I quit the PB a couple months back and quit the MM when they changed the matrix, although I did have a ticket for this last 321MIL. draw.

Now instead of $10 a week for PB & MM, I'll play $5 on this game when it caps.

 

After the game is capped how do you figure out how many possible 2nd prizes ?

Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
    United States
    Member #146344
    September 1, 2013
    1129 Posts
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    Posted: November 9, 2014, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

    Jersey should call it the less then 1/2 millionaire club since you'd wind up w/ a little less then 500k

    with our 10.8 % state tax.

     

    Just like you I will play when it's capped, count me in the camp that likes a lot of people to win a MIL.

    I quit the PB a couple months back and quit the MM when they changed the matrix, although I did have a ticket for this last 321MIL. draw.

    Now instead of $10 a week for PB & MM, I'll play $5 on this game when it caps.

     

    After the game is capped how do you figure out how many possible 2nd prizes ?

    After the game is capped how do you figure out how many possible 2nd prizes ?

    The Club prizes share the same prize pool division as the jackpot, about 32.21% of sales. They increase by a minimum of 2 per draw so you basically take the greater of the minimum or the minimum plus 32.21% of sales/$1 million (after cash jackpot factored), rounded down.

    Max[Cumulative sales * 32.21% - Cash Jackpot / $1 million (rounded down), last draw + 2]

    Example:

    This past cycle we estimated $13,816,250 in sales. There were 3 draws so a minimum of 10+2+2 = 14 winners. Cash jackpot was $12,804,878.

    $13,816,250 * 32.21% = $4,450,878 - $12,804,878 =($8,354,000)

    There was a deficit so the number of Club winners was equal to the minimum.

    Alternatively, say the cash jackpot gets capped at $15,000,000 ($25 million annuity), there are $100 million in cumulative sales, and it gets hit on the 4th draw (one that gets capped).

    $100,000,000* 32.21% = $32,214,803- $15,000,000 = $17,214,803/$1,000,000 = 17.214803

    There is enough funding for 17 Club prizes, or 1 more than the minimum, so there would be 10+2+2+3 = 17 available in the draw.

    Rule of thumb is that the Club prizes do not increase beyond the 2 minimum rollover until the jackpot is capped and all prizes funded.

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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      October 20, 2014
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      Posted: November 9, 2014, 3:17 pm - IP Logged

      /\/\/\

      "Alternatively, say the cash jackpot gets capped at $15,000,000 ($25 million annuity)"

      Ouch, I remember reading something about the jackpot not confirmed as $25M cash or annuity. I have not remembered to read up on the jackpot reward recently so thank you for this information. This really makes me hate the jackpot portion more now and hope to be part of the second place raffle winners.

        reddbrim's avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
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        fresno ,tx
        United States
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        August 17, 2012
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        Posted: November 9, 2014, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

        Well I guess 15 million is not a lot of money an 1 million dollars is not a lot fo money before taxes for some people either but for me I take that , an the chance to enter my tickets in the second chance drawing, an I will be playing this friday , And congratulations to the person or persons who won the power ball.and way to go for the first 14 people who won a million dollars for not getting any numbers right.In the monopoly game.LOL

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          NY
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          October 16, 2005
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          Posted: November 9, 2014, 5:07 pm - IP Logged

          "statistically it probably should not have happened until month 3!"

          Statistically, it can happen any time, including 3 drawings in a row. If sales were always the same it would be just as likely on the 1st drawing as on the 50th. In terms of probability, it should average out to match the odds, so we should expect 1 jackpot winner for every 72.77 million tickets as a long-term average. If they sell 1 million tickets for every drawing we would expect, on average, 1 jackpot winner every 73 drawings.  Past drawings don't affect future ones, but in terms of average results only 1 more jackpot winner in  the next  143 drawings (almost 3 years) would match what probability suggests.

          "The odds after the jackpot was hit was the 1 in 59,000 number I provided."

          Unfortunately that has absolutely no bearing at all on your actual chances of winning the $1 million prize. Looking at the odds for those who bought tickets once a jackpot has been won is like looking at any other event after the variables are removed. Since you'll never know if there will be a jackpot winner you have no way of knowing what the odds are for any single drawing. The best you can do is to look at  the long-term odds. Based on the odds and the prizes we can calculate how much money is available for the $1 million prizes. Most of the time the jackpot will have reached maximum, so about $15 million will go to that, and the 72.77 million tickets necessary for the jackpot winner will have produced about .6 * $5 * 72.77 million for prizes. That works out to $218.3 million, less $15 million for the jackpot. That's $203.3 million for all of the prizes besides the jackpot. I'm not going to bother, but it's easy enough to  calculate the expected payout for all of the lesser prizes, which will tell you how many $1 million prizes we can expect for every 72.77 million tickets they sell.

          It still won't be exact, but that's as close as you can come to figuring the odds. The 1 in 59,000 sounds really good, but you can't buy a ticket after the drawing, and when you could buy a ticket  you  would have (or could have) known that there was only a very modest chance that anybody would win $1 million. Even if they eventually sell 10 million tickets per drawing the after the fact odds of winning $1 million will be zero about 6 times out of 7. Given the current sales it's going to be zero about 98% of the time.

            GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
            NY State
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            June 10, 2010
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            Posted: November 9, 2014, 5:48 pm - IP Logged

            I've read the posts by Growler, LottoMetro and KY Floyd since I posted mine this morning, and I thank each of you for what I consider to be very informative and excellent information.

            While I did understand the various points that were made, I'm gonna employ the "KISS" Principle and only buy a ticket when the jackpot is capped at 25 million!  As for the odds, be they pre or post purchase, all I can say is "To Hell with it" and hope for the best.Smile  Thanks again. G5

            About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

              reddbrim's avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
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              fresno ,tx
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              Posted: November 9, 2014, 7:22 pm - IP Logged

              Thanks to everyone who pointed out how terrible the odds are and saying that I am still going to play this friday an hope for the best I believe that's what you're doing when you are gambling you are hoping that the odds fall in your favor.Maybe it will more likey maybe not but I like the game an the rest of the games with their terrible odds . somebody has won before maybe I will win...And I already have a ticket for Friday game. Monopoly Game .

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                3rd Rock from Sun
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                September 13, 2014
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                Posted: November 14, 2014, 5:19 pm - IP Logged

                I have played a few tickets thru the first 3 drawings and haven't hit anything yet. although someone here from Texas did hit the club prize on last drawing since 14 people got club prizes. for tonite i have 4 tickets in which i chose the main pool numbers. Also as far as game show is concerned i have made property sets already and have tallied up 71 entries into the first game show drawing on Dec 2nd. Getting the property sets does yield various number of entries. example Parkplace/boardwalk gets you 20 entries. i hit that one twice already. the green set on same side of board gets you 15 entries i got that one once. the utilities give you 10.mediter/baltic gets you 2 entries. the cyan set on same side gets you 4 entries.  thats all i have for now.


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                  Posted: November 17, 2014, 3:38 pm - IP Logged
                  I still don't think I am able to post links, but suffice to say you regulars will get a kick out of this:
                  The Georgia Millionaires' Monopoly Club $1 million winner has come forward.
                  And get this, he won Georgia's Fantasy 5 jackpot (he actually split it with another winning ticket) ON THE SAME DAY.
                  Google: Pooler Man Wins Big, and it should be the top hit.
                  How about that?!
                    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                    Happyland
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                    September 1, 2013
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                    Posted: November 17, 2014, 3:59 pm - IP Logged
                    I still don't think I am able to post links, but suffice to say you regulars will get a kick out of this:
                    The Georgia Millionaires' Monopoly Club $1 million winner has come forward.
                    And get this, he won Georgia's Fantasy 5 jackpot (he actually split it with another winning ticket) ON THE SAME DAY.
                    Google: Pooler Man Wins Big, and it should be the top hit.
                    How about that?!

                    WOW! Talk about lucky Eek This is definitely a story to suggest for the news section. If those were the only tickets he ever purchased, the odds of this happening would be close to 1 in 3 trillion (the reality is he probably has bought many tickets for a long time; still very far out though).

                    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1


                      United States
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                      November 1, 2014
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                      Posted: November 17, 2014, 4:12 pm - IP Logged

                      WOW! Talk about lucky Eek This is definitely a story to suggest for the news section. If those were the only tickets he ever purchased, the odds of this happening would be close to 1 in 3 trillion (the reality is he probably has bought many tickets for a long time; still very far out though).

                      LottoMetro, the links show pictures of the gentleman holding both of his giant checks. Of course, two big wins have happened before. But for different games on the same day? Wow. My guess is, in looking at the pics, he's probably played the lottery for a long time, but you never know.

                      BTW, if anyone wants to mock hate him (I say it with a smile on my face), his Fantasy 5 win was about as low as you can get in Georgia. It was the minimum jackpot ($100,000) split by two winning tickets. But again, wow.
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                        Wyomissing, PA
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                        November 15, 2014
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                        Posted: November 17, 2014, 4:52 pm - IP Logged

                        I've bought 4 tickets total since the beginning of the game. I'll continue to play it occasionally despite the lousy odds. Overall, the Monopoly game feels like a rip-off. Winning a Vegas trip is ok, but there's seemingly no guarantee of play - or maybe there is in a mini-game for lesser prizes?... but for how much?...

                        Seems strange the exact details of the game show part still hasn't been publicly released. I contacted the PA Lottery, and even they don't know / won't release the details - they just directed me to the PlayMMC website. What is the MUSL hiding? Makes me wonder if they're going to decide the exact rules and odds of the game show based on sales - too few sales and/or the game running deep in the red (which it currently is; top prize was hit way too soon) could equal lesser prizes / more difficult to play.

                        While on the topic, instead of the Vegas game show part, an instant second chance (like what PA is doing for their holiday instant tickets) combined with a millionaire raffle drawn from tickets entered on-line would have been better. Though from a promotional aspect, it's understandable why they went the Vegas trip route to drive sales.

                        All and all, I'm not sold on this game. Computer draw, computer pick only of property number, and lack of transparency. My hunch is the lack of excitement by players, and too many early top prize hits, driving the game deeper into the red, will doom the game by mid 2015. Time will tell how it plays out.


                          United States
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                          November 1, 2014
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                          Posted: November 17, 2014, 5:50 pm - IP Logged

                          I've bought 4 tickets total since the beginning of the game. I'll continue to play it occasionally despite the lousy odds. Overall, the Monopoly game feels like a rip-off. Winning a Vegas trip is ok, but there's seemingly no guarantee of play - or maybe there is in a mini-game for lesser prizes?... but for how much?...

                          Seems strange the exact details of the game show part still hasn't been publicly released. I contacted the PA Lottery, and even they don't know / won't release the details - they just directed me to the PlayMMC website. What is the MUSL hiding? Makes me wonder if they're going to decide the exact rules and odds of the game show based on sales - too few sales and/or the game running deep in the red (which it currently is; top prize was hit way too soon) could equal lesser prizes / more difficult to play.

                          While on the topic, instead of the Vegas game show part, an instant second chance (like what PA is doing for their holiday instant tickets) combined with a millionaire raffle drawn from tickets entered on-line would have been better. Though from a promotional aspect, it's understandable why they went the Vegas trip route to drive sales.

                          All and all, I'm not sold on this game. Computer draw, computer pick only of property number, and lack of transparency. My hunch is the lack of excitement by players, and too many early top prize hits, driving the game deeper into the red, will doom the game by mid 2015. Time will tell how it plays out.

                          Ron, I've bought 5 tickets so far. 2 of the first 3 were $5 winners, so I've spent $15 and I will buy one or maybe two more, tops, before the 11/25 drawing for the game show. I found this forum and joined it a few weeks ago to discuss the game show. You can see that thread a few pages back. I understand your feeling about it, but I think MUSL and the associated states are in it for the long haul. The game show has close to national TV clearance and I believe it's big part of their plans. LottoMetro posted some details of the game show and a promotional video weeks ago in another part of the forum section, and I suspect you'll see at least a few big winners, and audiences can share in the winnings. And the individual state games will probably offer a few thousand dollars (or more) and a pretty good chance of playing that, if you make it to Vegas.
                          Btw, I only have my initial 20 entries, from being awarded the Boardwalk-Park Place Monopoly for the Community Chest bonus, and I am "one away" from 3 other possible ones, after 5 tickets. I know the property on a purchased ticket is selected at random, but I am wondering if the bonus properties are, too. We've seen a few reports of a lot of entries into the game show drawing, with not that many tickets purchased.
                          As for whether or not it was good to have the jackpot hit so quickly, I pondered that question, but after checking out the press releases from the state lotteries, etc., I believe they are happy it was hit and that it created another 14 millionaires. It shows that it *can* happen, and they want people to think that, despite the 1% or so odds (for now) of it happening on any given drawing. It could be months and months before it happens again.
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                            Happyland
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                            September 1, 2013
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                            Posted: November 17, 2014, 6:22 pm - IP Logged

                            I've bought 4 tickets total since the beginning of the game. I'll continue to play it occasionally despite the lousy odds. Overall, the Monopoly game feels like a rip-off. Winning a Vegas trip is ok, but there's seemingly no guarantee of play - or maybe there is in a mini-game for lesser prizes?... but for how much?...

                            Seems strange the exact details of the game show part still hasn't been publicly released. I contacted the PA Lottery, and even they don't know / won't release the details - they just directed me to the PlayMMC website. What is the MUSL hiding? Makes me wonder if they're going to decide the exact rules and odds of the game show based on sales - too few sales and/or the game running deep in the red (which it currently is; top prize was hit way too soon) could equal lesser prizes / more difficult to play.

                            While on the topic, instead of the Vegas game show part, an instant second chance (like what PA is doing for their holiday instant tickets) combined with a millionaire raffle drawn from tickets entered on-line would have been better. Though from a promotional aspect, it's understandable why they went the Vegas trip route to drive sales.

                            All and all, I'm not sold on this game. Computer draw, computer pick only of property number, and lack of transparency. My hunch is the lack of excitement by players, and too many early top prize hits, driving the game deeper into the red, will doom the game by mid 2015. Time will tell how it plays out.

                            Makes me wonder if they're going to decide the exact rules and odds of the game show based on sales - too few sales and/or the game running deep in the red (which it currently is; top prize was hit way too soon) could equal lesser prizes / more difficult to play.

                            I think the game show elements and rules have already been finalized. As of my information they have passed about 4 revisions and haven't changed in 7 months. Besides, the payout of the show (I think like 4.54%) had to be set before the launch of the game.

                            Indeed the game is running pretty deep, but MUSL purchases insurance to cover losses. From the beginning they knew that they would be in the red and will continue to do so until the other states join next year. All of the participating states understood and accepted this.

                            Fyi contacting your lottery will usually just get you an ignorant customer service rep. The best information comes from direct contact with officials. This privilege is not afforded to everyone but most states have a directory with numbers or email addresses for lottery commission employees.

                            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1


                              United States
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                              Posted: November 17, 2014, 8:17 pm - IP Logged

                              LottoMetro, just curious: how can the game show payout, 4.54% or whatever, be pre-set, since there is no way to know how much players will win on each show? Is that percentage the maximum amount of available prize money per show?

                                 
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