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Monopoly Millionaires game

Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 2 years ago by LottoMetro.

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Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7313 Posts
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Posted: November 8, 2014, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

Get ready for the media hype train...New Jersey hit the jackpot!!

Looks like 14 people joined the Millionaires' Club! Thumbs Up

 

Texas:
TX075 100 191 754

Florida:
7971-0035-1253
7931-0029-2829
7931-0029-1443

Pennsylvania:
5781-0156-1953

New York:
NY 5381-0037-5511
NY 5341-0033-2433
NY 5381-0037-4750

Washington DC:
DC 0003-001217

Arizona:
0221-0004-2175

Maryland:
10535-0209-0872

Missouri:
9321-0005-7906

Georgia:
3471-0013-6217

Tennessee:
9641-0009-2350

 

Fairly surprising considering the single draw probability was <1.5% and cumulative probability <4%, but that just goes to show how crazy randomness can be!

Anyone who played tonight had about a 1 in 59,000 chance of getting one of the $1 million prizes (given that the jackpot was hit).

"Anyone who played tonight had about a 1 in 59,000 chance of getting one of the $1 million prizes (given that the jackpot was hit)."

Granted it's known when the Raffles are won, but most cost $20 to get a 1 chance in 125,000 of winning $1 million. If any of the 14 winners spent $5 each drawing, they bet $15 to get much better odds than the could buying a $20 raffle ticket.

    reddbrim's avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
    New Member
    fresno ,tx
    United States
    Member #131768
    August 17, 2012
    26 Posts
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    Posted: November 8, 2014, 6:37 pm - IP Logged

    I bet next Friday the people who was down playing the monopoly game will have a ticket in it , but wait I know I will .

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      United States
      Member #149820
      December 9, 2013
      644 Posts
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      Posted: November 8, 2014, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

      Im shocked someone hit so soon, but I was wanting to see what would happen with the millionaires that come after the jackpot winner hit. Im glad it seems to be living up to what they said they were and i'll probably have a 5'er in the next one myself

        reddbrim's avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
        New Member
        fresno ,tx
        United States
        Member #131768
        August 17, 2012
        26 Posts
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        Posted: November 8, 2014, 8:26 pm - IP Logged

        Just think if someone hit it Friday that will be 10 more people maybe you maybe me an ontop of that you get to enter that ticket in the second chance draw , what other game offer that.


          United States
          Member #160560
          November 1, 2014
          20 Posts
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          Posted: November 8, 2014, 9:36 pm - IP Logged
          So LottoMetro, I had a tough time finding the national numbers for the latest draw. Many of the participating state lottery pages are awful. On New York's, you can't find any inkling of a total winners list. Other states are equally lacking.
          Anyway, leave it to the Rhode Island Lottery to reveal the national numbers. Wow. You were right... that jackpot win was highly improbable and was the only ticket to match the first five. Only four other tickets even got to 4+1.
          I am guessing, from the MUSL perspective, it's a mixed blessing:
          On the one hand, you have players or potential players seeing 14 millionaires pretty quickly. On the other, they're not close to those dozens and dozens of potential millionaires that will entice even more players. We'll see how next week goes.
          Based on these numbers and posted odds, approximately 910,000 tickets were sold for Friday's draw. So that was a 1 in 64,000 or so chance to hit the million, for a single play. Not bad. We'll see the if odds are better the next time the big jackpot is hit.
          National breakdown:
          Match 5+1     1
          Match 5+0     0
          Match 4+1     4
          Match 4+0     132
          Match 3+1     167
          Match 2+1     2136
          Match 3+0     4475
          Match 1+1     10498
          Match 0+1     16644
          Match 2+0     56952
            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
            Happyland
            United States
            Member #146344
            September 1, 2013
            1129 Posts
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            Posted: November 8, 2014, 9:47 pm - IP Logged
            So LottoMetro, I had a tough time finding the national numbers for the latest draw. Many of the participating state lottery pages are awful. On New York's, you can't find any inkling of a total winners list. Other states are equally lacking.
            Anyway, leave it to the Rhode Island Lottery to reveal the national numbers. Wow. You were right... that jackpot win was highly improbable and was the only ticket to match the first five. Only four other tickets even got to 4+1.
            I am guessing, from the MUSL perspective, it's a mixed blessing:
            On the one hand, you have players or potential players seeing 14 millionaires pretty quickly. On the other, they're not close to those dozens and dozens of potential millionaires that will entice even more players. We'll see how next week goes.
            Based on these numbers and posted odds, approximately 910,000 tickets were sold for Friday's draw. So that was a 1 in 64,000 or so chance to hit the million, for a single play. Not bad. We'll see the if odds are better the next time the big jackpot is hit.
            National breakdown:
            Match 5+1     1
            Match 5+0     0
            Match 4+1     4
            Match 4+0     132
            Match 3+1     167
            Match 2+1     2136
            Match 3+0     4475
            Match 1+1     10498
            Match 0+1     16644
            Match 2+0     56952

            You're right that most states aren't successfully informing the players about winning numbers and prizes won. I think the playmmc website should be like Powerball, where you can see winners for each state etc. There is no draw history and so on that players expect to see. But I was not asked for my opinion in that decision making. LOL Obviously there are still some kinks to be worked out. When I checked the site after I posted the winning numbers this morning (last night), it showed that 24 club prizes were won and the states all had New York's MC numbers. lol

            Yes, it is a mixed blessing. It is well known that lottery sales increase in successive drawings following a win. This game will oscillate just like the big games. Players will be active in the start, then as draws go by without a winner sales will slow down, then reverse whenever there is a hit or the prizes are press-worthy.

            Right now the game is operating in the red and will continue to do so until the rest of the states join in 2015. Not a big deal since insurance covers shortfalls but I imagine some of the lotteries are feeling a little uneasy. I think the sales we are experiencing now are a bit lower than originally anticipated. But we're in new territory with a $5 game so that should be expected. Just because players say/demand something, does not mean they will reaffirm it with their wallet.

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

              reddbrim's avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
              New Member
              fresno ,tx
              United States
              Member #131768
              August 17, 2012
              26 Posts
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              Posted: November 8, 2014, 10:04 pm - IP Logged

              HuH...................I already have my monopoly tickets ..........


                United States
                Member #160560
                November 1, 2014
                20 Posts
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                Posted: November 8, 2014, 10:22 pm - IP Logged

                Reddbrim, I went back and read your posts in this thread. I am like you in that I like the wealth being spread around! Whenever there is a mega-large jackpot I always hope for multiple winners. I think the point LottoMetro was making earlier, which is 100% valid, is that it was highly improbable for this to happen in Week 3. In fact, statistically it probably should not have happened until month 3!  In the first 3 drawings, there have been 0 second-prize (5+0) winners and only 11 tickets hitting 4 numbers + the property. The odds may be not as large as Powerball or MegaMillions, but it's still a very difficult game to hit the jackpot -- and trigger the MMC raffle-style draw.

                The participating lotteries will give it time to grow. I personally think sales will increase after the debut of the game show in February, which is what brought me to this forum in the first place.

                  reddbrim's avatar - Lottery-067.jpg
                  New Member
                  fresno ,tx
                  United States
                  Member #131768
                  August 17, 2012
                  26 Posts
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                  Posted: November 8, 2014, 10:56 pm - IP Logged

                  The odds are never going to be on the people side thats for sure  but this game made 14 people million dollars an if I not mistaken if someone hit it before the month is up this game would have made more people in one month a million dollars than any of the games did all year, not to mention how many people will go to Las Vegas an they might win .  odds are unfair on all games but when they offer more people a chance to get a million an a trip for 5 dollars I gladly take them odds.

                    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                    Happyland
                    United States
                    Member #146344
                    September 1, 2013
                    1129 Posts
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                    Posted: November 9, 2014, 12:39 am - IP Logged

                    Mega Millions hit Tuesday, Monopoly hit Friday, and now Powerball on Saturday.....what a week!

                    Crazy

                    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                      GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
                      NY State
                      United States
                      Member #92609
                      June 10, 2010
                      3705 Posts
                      Online
                      Posted: November 9, 2014, 7:39 am - IP Logged

                      Get ready for the media hype train...New Jersey hit the jackpot!!

                      Looks like 14 people joined the Millionaires' Club! Thumbs Up

                       

                      Texas:
                      TX075 100 191 754

                      Florida:
                      7971-0035-1253
                      7931-0029-2829
                      7931-0029-1443

                      Pennsylvania:
                      5781-0156-1953

                      New York:
                      NY 5381-0037-5511
                      NY 5341-0033-2433
                      NY 5381-0037-4750

                      Washington DC:
                      DC 0003-001217

                      Arizona:
                      0221-0004-2175

                      Maryland:
                      10535-0209-0872

                      Missouri:
                      9321-0005-7906

                      Georgia:
                      3471-0013-6217

                      Tennessee:
                      9641-0009-2350

                       

                      Fairly surprising considering the single draw probability was <1.5% and cumulative probability <4%, but that just goes to show how crazy randomness can be!

                      Anyone who played tonight had about a 1 in 59,000 chance of getting one of the $1 million prizes (given that the jackpot was hit).

                      Please correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't MMC's 2nd tier prize of $1 million essentially a raffle predicated on whether or not the jackpot is won?

                      I ask that because I'm a fan of any state lottery sponsored raffle.  For instance Connecticut is currently running "SuperDraw", which is a raffle.  It costs $10 per ticket, and there will be a maximum of 275,000 sold. (fewer than 275,000 if the end date/time is reached and all 275,000 tickets are not sold)  There is one guaranteed top prize winner of $1 million, and there are many guaranteed lower tier prizes. IMHO lottery odds of  275,000 to 1 to win $1 million is very low, which is why I like it.

                      Did you calculate the odds of 59,000 to 1, or did you see it advertised somewhere?  I played MMC last Friday night, and I plan to play again, but each time I play, I'll have waited until the number of 2nd place prizes gets to about where it was on Friday night.  G5

                      About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!


                        United States
                        Member #160560
                        November 1, 2014
                        20 Posts
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                        Posted: November 9, 2014, 8:21 am - IP Logged

                        GiveFive,

                        Go back and read all the posts in this thread by LottoMetro and myself. Yes, MMC does become a "raffle" when the jackpot is hit and yes, the jackpot was hit Friday night, but that was an extremely unlikely result. In fact, in the 3 drawings so far, the jackpot winner was the *only* ticket to hit the first 5 numbers. Based on ticket sales so far, statistically that should  happen about once in every three draws. But then you've got to match the randomly-generated property (1 in 28 chance), which this ticket did.
                        So for the lucky MMC  winners, the odds Friday night were 1 in 64,000 but only after the jackpot was wonAnd it is based on dividing the number of winners by estimated total ticket sales.
                         LottoMetro calculated the actual odds entering the drawing were closer to 5.2 million to 1.
                        BTW, if you like those raffle-style lottery games, I had mentioned Montana. They are selling only 135,000 tickets for their $1 million prize (plus a few 2nd and 3rd place prizes and some instant wins), but at $20 each.
                        As for MMC, we may or may not ever see effective odds like the 1 in 64,000 again. It will depend on multiple factors as the game progresses.
                          Avatar

                          United States
                          Member #149820
                          December 9, 2013
                          644 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: November 9, 2014, 11:08 am - IP Logged

                          Just think if someone hit it Friday that will be 10 more people maybe you maybe me an ontop of that you get to enter that ticket in the second chance draw , what other game offer that.

                          That why I am going to keep playing this particular game. Im just shooting for that million dollars LOL

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                            United States
                            Member #160170
                            October 20, 2014
                            30 Posts
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                            Posted: November 9, 2014, 11:24 am - IP Logged

                            Still not sure why they are calling it a Millionaire's Club when you get ~600k after taxes depending on state. Either make it a solid million after taxes or call it the 600k club. LOL

                            Outside of that I am still sticking to not playing the game until the $25 million jackpot is capped and the amount of $600k winners is at least ~40-50. Good luck to all you gameshow entrants!

                              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                              Happyland
                              United States
                              Member #146344
                              September 1, 2013
                              1129 Posts
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                              Posted: November 9, 2014, 2:06 pm - IP Logged

                              GiveFive,

                              Go back and read all the posts in this thread by LottoMetro and myself. Yes, MMC does become a "raffle" when the jackpot is hit and yes, the jackpot was hit Friday night, but that was an extremely unlikely result. In fact, in the 3 drawings so far, the jackpot winner was the *only* ticket to hit the first 5 numbers. Based on ticket sales so far, statistically that should  happen about once in every three draws. But then you've got to match the randomly-generated property (1 in 28 chance), which this ticket did.
                              So for the lucky MMC  winners, the odds Friday night were 1 in 64,000 but only after the jackpot was wonAnd it is based on dividing the number of winners by estimated total ticket sales.
                               LottoMetro calculated the actual odds entering the drawing were closer to 5.2 million to 1.
                              BTW, if you like those raffle-style lottery games, I had mentioned Montana. They are selling only 135,000 tickets for their $1 million prize (plus a few 2nd and 3rd place prizes and some instant wins), but at $20 each.
                              As for MMC, we may or may not ever see effective odds like the 1 in 64,000 again. It will depend on multiple factors as the game progresses.

                              GiveFive and Growler:

                              Yes, there is a clear distinction here. The odds after buying a ticket but before the drawing were 1 in 5.2 million (before buying a ticket the odds were null). The odds after the jackpot was hit was the 1 in 59,000 number I provided. FTR the odds were 1 in 59,195. Turns out my original guesstimate on sales was very close (apparently only 402 tickets difference between this draw and last). Now, those sound like great odds compared to other games. I think most agree that's the best shot at a million. But the probability of winning was 0.0016893278% which is still awful, and that is conditional on the top prize hit. And don't forget that's a $5 price point. So again, the actual odds are much, much worse because those secondary odds don't occur but maybe 1% of the time. On a side note, today I am getting ready to purchase a few positive return tickets in my state lottery. First time in about 2 years a game has been so good that the variance is worth playing. I'm excited and the top prize isn't even a million.

                              As for MMC, we may or may not ever see effective odds like the 1 in 64,000 again. It will depend on multiple factors as the game progresses.

                              Actually this will happen all the time. I mean, 20 prizes would have made it 1 in 41,437. While it is true that your odds worsen as sales increase, the number of prizes increase as well. Your actual probability (and that given the top prize is won) improves rapidly once the jackpot cap is in place. Unlike PB/MM where sales traditionally increase with each rollover, that remains to be seen with MMC. Also, what happened Friday is in the 1%-4% category. Do not expect it to get hit after this few rolls every time. I am with James here and still in the camp of waiting for a large number of MC prizes.

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                                 
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