Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 6, 2016, 5:30 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

Monopoly Millionaires game

Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 2 years ago by LottoMetro.

Page 9 of 13
4.25
PrintE-mailLink
Avatar
New Member

United States
Member #161602
December 5, 2014
5 Posts
Offline
Posted: December 5, 2014, 10:54 pm - IP Logged

 "I'm no math wiz, but why else would MMC not allow the player to choose the property number."

 

 

I think this is because your property number on the ticket shows up on the game board when you enter for the drawing.

 

At least it has been for me.

    Avatar
    New Member

    United States
    Member #161602
    December 5, 2014
    5 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: December 5, 2014, 10:58 pm - IP Logged

    playmmc.com/mmcdrawings -> Second Chance Drawings -> 12/02/14

    On a side note, the number of winners per state is definitely more than 6 and while I expected an additional number in proportion to sales, it doesn't seem to make sense according to the rules (or my understanding thereof). Sales simply were not high enough to support this many attendees. I will have to look into this.

    I think the property number as QP covered multiple bases. As stated, it increases the player variance which increases the probability of a rollover, which is undoubtedly crucial to this game having many millionaires. I also think it has something to do with dissuading wheeling, as well as reducing the skewed liability on fixed prizes that has popped up in PB and MM. I wasn't privy to the NPG executive sessions so I could be far off on that one, but it's just a hunch.

    The most likely and obvious reason is like someone else just mentioned, the property is used in the second-chance element, so letting players choose the property would mean that everyone could easily fill out a property set (thus defeating the purpose).

    Look at how many are from NY and Fl. For a game operating in the red, that is a lot of money spent on trips to Vegas. Guess who is going to be on the game show. FL and NY

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
      United States
      Member #146344
      September 1, 2013
      1129 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: December 5, 2014, 11:08 pm - IP Logged

      Look at how many are from NY and Fl. For a game operating in the red, that is a lot of money spent on trips to Vegas. Guess who is going to be on the game show. FL and NY

      Well NY and FL also had the biggest chunk of sales. Like I said, it's proportional, but there isn't supposed to be more than 6 winners unless there is an excess availability of funds. The trip is worth $6500, and there are 254 attendees (plus those in the 2 states that haven't reported yet), which means the liability is $1,651,000 and counting. Not to mention the available $2.5 million on the actual game show. They are definitely operating in the red.

      My only guess why they're stretching their necks out this far is to drum up popularity for the show and hence the game's entire future. If they only had the minimum number of winners then there wouldn't be much of a debut audience and likely wouldn't get the attention they want to start.

      Edit: $6500 inclusive of tax withholding, which means the trip is actually only worth $5200 or $1,320,800 for 254 attendees. Either way, still in the red.

      I imagine you're correct about the actual trip cost though. Vegas is cheap. Possibly i.e. $500 spending money, $500 roundtrip flight, $100 for transportation, $300 for meals, $600 for hotel. I bet the true value is less than $3000, but there's no way to know since a private company is doing the fulfillment.

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

        Avatar
        New Member

        United States
        Member #161602
        December 5, 2014
        5 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: December 5, 2014, 11:12 pm - IP Logged

        Well NY and FL also had the biggest chunk of sales. Like I said, it's proportional, but there isn't supposed to be more than 6 winners unless there is an excess availability of funds. The trip is worth $6500, and there are 254 attendees (plus those in the 2 states that haven't reported yet), which means the liability is $1,651,000 and counting. Not to mention the available $2.5 million on the actual game show. They are definitely operating in the red.

        My only guess why they're stretching their necks out this far is to drum up popularity for the show and hence the game's entire future. If they only had the minimum number of winners then there wouldn't be much of a debut audience and likely wouldn't get the attention they want to start.

        Edit: $6500 inclusive of tax withholding, which means the trip is actually only worth $5200 or $1,320,800 for 254 attendees. Either way, still in the red.

        I imagine you're correct about the actual trip cost though. Vegas is cheap. Possibly i.e. $500 spending money, $500 roundtrip flight, $100 for transportation, $300 for meals, $600 for hotel. I bet the true value is less than $3000, but there's no way to know since a private company is doing the fulfillment.

        I suspect they are getting deeply discounted rooms plus a discount on airfare. So the value to the winner for tax purposes is probably different than what they are actually having to spend. Still, it adds up to a lot of money.

          Technut's avatar - moon
          3rd Rock from Sun
          United States
          Member #159103
          September 13, 2014
          151 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: December 6, 2014, 3:34 am - IP Logged

          I follow you lottometro on the fact of filling out propoerties on game board for extra chances to get a seat in audience for game show. i have been playing small amounts thus far for the game like 20 bucks per week now and for first game show drawing i had 123 chances and still got no seat. i now have 18 for second round based previous final holdings of properties after first drawing for game show and first new drawing since then and BTW i picked a few sets of numbers like since second drawing and been using them since and finally on dec 5th drawing i spent 20 bucks and got 10 bucks back at least so just have to wait and see what future holds. (c8

          Yesterday is History, Tomorrow is a Mystery, Today is a gift that's why it's called the PRESENT! (c8

            Avatar
            Wyomissing, PA
            United States
            Member #161050
            November 15, 2014
            301 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: December 6, 2014, 5:23 pm - IP Logged

            Good point about wheeling. It can still be done, but due to the computer generated property number would take a lot more than 28 tickets to do it. Or maybe not depending on the state and terminal one uses to purchase them. Presumably, in many states, the terminal itself generates the property number. There could be ways to game this, and possibly purchase all 28 property combinations without buying too many extra tickets.

            As for the property number being used in the second chance game - I honestly hadn't even noticed that. Shows how much I care for the Vegas game show part. Confused And illustrates, at least to me anyways, it's a contrived feature - "player variance" is likely the real underlying reason for the property being computer selected.

            I was surprised, like others here, seeing so many Vegas game show winners selected. From a financial aspect, it's small potatoes for the MMC game - the trip is no frills with very little spending money ... $500 doesn't go far. Pennsylvania Lottery occasionally offers trip promotions, which tend to be far better, plus allows winners to take the approx cash value in lieu of travel. MUSL appears desperate to drive viewership for the show...

            Personally, I don't plan to watch the show - what reason is there to ... unless there's also an on-line instant win component with realistic odds. Just collecting more "bonus" properties seems a waste of time and effort with little reward. The Vegas trip is "cheap", and not overly enticing - if they offered say $5,000+ spending money and/or minimum guaranteed win in that range, I'd be all over that ... but not for $500, which is basically zero when factoring in extraneous trip costs that aren't covered.

              Avatar

              United States
              Member #161539
              December 3, 2014
              328 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: December 7, 2014, 6:43 am - IP Logged

              Good point about wheeling. It can still be done, but due to the computer generated property number would take a lot more than 28 tickets to do it. Or maybe not depending on the state and terminal one uses to purchase them. Presumably, in many states, the terminal itself generates the property number. There could be ways to game this, and possibly purchase all 28 property combinations without buying too many extra tickets.

              As for the property number being used in the second chance game - I honestly hadn't even noticed that. Shows how much I care for the Vegas game show part. Confused And illustrates, at least to me anyways, it's a contrived feature - "player variance" is likely the real underlying reason for the property being computer selected.

              I was surprised, like others here, seeing so many Vegas game show winners selected. From a financial aspect, it's small potatoes for the MMC game - the trip is no frills with very little spending money ... $500 doesn't go far. Pennsylvania Lottery occasionally offers trip promotions, which tend to be far better, plus allows winners to take the approx cash value in lieu of travel. MUSL appears desperate to drive viewership for the show...

              Personally, I don't plan to watch the show - what reason is there to ... unless there's also an on-line instant win component with realistic odds. Just collecting more "bonus" properties seems a waste of time and effort with little reward. The Vegas trip is "cheap", and not overly enticing - if they offered say $5,000+ spending money and/or minimum guaranteed win in that range, I'd be all over that ... but not for $500, which is basically zero when factoring in extraneous trip costs that aren't covered.

              I share your interest or "no interest" in the tv show. I bought my second ticket last week ... my decision was to wait till the $25 million limit was hit and then cover the game ... decided to play the week before when it was $21 million. I didn't realize that two out of five numbers would give your $5 back ... I had two numbers and one number was "one number off" ... the famous "one number off" routine that has cost many gamblers a small fortune ... always in the right neighborhood just on the wrong porch!

              Seeing that you are in PA ... our best shot at $1 million may be the $20 raffle game going on now ... I'm always one to experiment ... in 2006 I bought 25 tickets spread out for the summer raffle game. I bought a ticket every Mon, Wed and Fri ... I normally go 2 or 3 tickets but I had to get it out of system, beside 2006 was a bad year ... I needed a million dollars as soon as possible. No hits ... not even $100 ... but what is a lousy 25 tickets out of 500,000 tickets total, never did it again ... will just stick to my 2 or 3 tickets. Actually, in 2006 the tickets sold was 625,000 I think and the the next game they dropped the tickets sales to 500,000 ... but give or take and extra 125,000 tickets ... where do 25 tickets fit into the scheme of things ?

              I do have a question for LottoMetro (or anyone) ... so the number of millionaires went from 16 to 18 for next Friday ... is this a "fixed" total with no change if sales are up ... like they do for PB and MM as ticket sales increase on a large jackpot? Then will the number of possible millionaires always increase just by two as nobody hits the $25 million jackpot for a month or two ... if this were to actually happen. Would there be more millionaire chances added ... like 5 or 6 instead of just two.

              I am thinking that once CA joins, the jackpot will be hit more often so the game will start to lose interest for me ... I decided to buy two tickets for next Friday ... before CA gets into the game in Jan, I may be wrong on that date.

              I also wish you had an option to receive some money if you didn't want to go to Vegas ... I agree with all you said about $500 and Vegas ... some people will enjoy a nice trip or vacation and I will pass.

              I also have one other question to understand things better ... just because there are 18 possible millionaire chances next Friday ... people living in PA (or other states) "do not" really have 18 chances to win ... if I understand the rules. There could not be 10 or 12 winners from PA ... just maybe 2 or 4 total, am I correct?

              That takes some of the luster of the game for me ... a small state actually only has one chance or one slot at a winner ... like the Virgin Islands for example?

              Thanks all and GLTA ...

                Avatar
                Jacksonville
                United States
                Member #153806
                March 26, 2014
                345 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: December 7, 2014, 1:40 pm - IP Logged

                LottoMetro,

                I've followed your postings on the MMC game since you seem like you are keeping informed of the details of the game.  With regard to the show, has your profitability analysis considered the possibility that whatever network picking up the TV show may have paid for the TV rights which would offset the costs of the show?

                Also, I wanted to get your thoughts on a second issue....it seems like everyone wants to hold out until the $25MM cap is hit and the number of possible millionaires starts to increase.  If everyone adopts this strategy, the odds of winning the million dollars won't really be much better because there will be more people buying tickets to compete with (e.g. like a raffle for a $100 prize with only 10 people buy tickets is better than a raffle for two $100 prizes but has 50 people buying tickets).

                I was just curious if you think this issue may defeat the strategy of waiting until the prize rollover prizes climb to greater levels.

                  LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                  Happyland
                  United States
                  Member #146344
                  September 1, 2013
                  1129 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: December 7, 2014, 2:39 pm - IP Logged

                  LottoMetro,

                  I've followed your postings on the MMC game since you seem like you are keeping informed of the details of the game.  With regard to the show, has your profitability analysis considered the possibility that whatever network picking up the TV show may have paid for the TV rights which would offset the costs of the show?

                  Also, I wanted to get your thoughts on a second issue....it seems like everyone wants to hold out until the $25MM cap is hit and the number of possible millionaires starts to increase.  If everyone adopts this strategy, the odds of winning the million dollars won't really be much better because there will be more people buying tickets to compete with (e.g. like a raffle for a $100 prize with only 10 people buy tickets is better than a raffle for two $100 prizes but has 50 people buying tickets).

                  I was just curious if you think this issue may defeat the strategy of waiting until the prize rollover prizes climb to greater levels.

                  considered the possibility that whatever network picking up the TV show may have paid for the TV rights which would offset the costs of the show?

                  Any proceeds from airing would pay for the production of the show, but not the actual costs to fund attendees or prize winners. Because it is a Monopoly-themed show, undoubetedly, Hasbro will be getting the largest chunk of monies, since it is their intellectual property. In fact, I think their studio is the one producing it. I will have to further investigate this, but nobody internally has been touting the TV show as a revenue stream....most of the income would go towards advertising or producing the shows. These networks don't pay as much as you would think for shows, especially new or unproven ones.

                  Regarding your second question, you are correct and this has been frequently quoted to rebuke "jackpot waiters." However, let me explain.

                  Inherently, the jackpot/MC prizes are linked to sales. So, while higher sales increase the probability of there being a winner and likewise the probability of the second-draw trigger, drawings with higher sales and NO winners lead to more available prizes for successive drawings. If that makes sense? With MMC in particular, the increase in sales respective to the increase in prizes is not exponetial. I'll try to illustrate mathematically.

                  Using sales from this cycle, and making projections using an extreme case of doubled sales for each future draw:

                  Draw #JackpotClub PrizesSalesTicketsClub Odds (Adj.)
                  1$9,100,00010$3,861,245772,2497,315,769
                  2$10,900,00012$3,595,865719,1736,094,255
                  3$12,700,00014$3,659,900731,9805,224,106
                  4$15,400,00016$3,217,040643,4084,568,316
                  5$15,400,00018$6,434,0801,286,8164,078,677
                  6$15,400,00020$12,868,1602,573,6323,703,264
                  7$15,400,00028$25,736,3205,147,2642,691,959
                  8$15,400,00044$51,472,64010,294,5281,773,624
                  9$15,400,00077$102,945,28020,589,0561,085,068

                  As you can see, even if sales double every draw thereafter, the odds for an individual winning one of the Club prizes continues to decrease (improve). This is because the prize money is the result of accumulation from previous drawings. The same concept applies to regular jackpot games like Powerball. The expected value continues to increase for higher jackpots, albeit at a decreasing rate (think parabola). Most statisticians who analyze jackpot games use the argument that exponential sales negate any advantage, as EV will soon start to decline; however, as empirical data has shown and my opinion is that this is not true because there is a finite limit on lottery sales and the number of tickets that all terminals can process in a finite time-frame, not to mention the above fact that higher sales naturally lead to higher jackpots and players do not have unlimited bankrolls (that's the economist in me talking). lol

                  If you're wondering how I get the odds, it's easiest to thinking of it as calculating the probability of there being a winner. If there is a winner, then there is a secondary raffle. Simple example: the odds of a winner are 1 in 100, there are 10 second prizes, and 50 tickets were sold. The odds of you winning one of the 10 prizes given there is a winner is simply 50/10 or 1 in 5; however, because the odds of the second draw being triggered are 1 in 100, the other 99 times your odds of a second prize are actually null. Likewise, the 1 out of 100 times there IS a winner, 4 out of 5 secondary draws you will lose. So basically, 1/100 * 1/5 = 1/500, which is the odds of your ticket winning one of the second prizes for any drawing. The calculation is slightly more complicated for larger populations and the game in question, simply because the factorials are practically impossible to compute. Thus, we use a Poisson distribution to calculate the probabilities. If you ever get a chance to look at official jackpot estimation documents, usually they will show the draw and cumulative probabilities of there being a winner.

                  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                  2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                    Happyland
                    United States
                    Member #146344
                    September 1, 2013
                    1129 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: December 7, 2014, 4:01 pm - IP Logged

                    Correction Bang Head

                    (wish edit function didn't expire lol)

                    Forgot to update my spreadsheet formulas awhile back, so there was an error in the above calculations.

                    Draw #JackpotClub PrizesSalesTicketsClub Odds (Adj.)
                    1$9,100,00010$3,861,245772,2497,315,769
                    2$10,900,00012$3,595,865719,1736,094,255
                    3$12,700,00014$3,659,900731,9805,224,106
                    4$15,400,00016$3,217,040643,4084,568,316
                    5$15,400,00018$6,434,0801,286,8164,078,677
                    6$15,400,00020$12,868,1602,573,6323,703,264
                    7$15,400,00022$25,736,3205,147,2643,426,130
                    8$15,400,00024$51,472,64010,294,5283,251,644
                    9$15,400,00053$102,945,28020,589,0561,576,419

                    Basic conclusion is the same though. Interestingly, they are so far in the hole that even if sales double for the next 4 drawings, the MC prizes will only increase by 2. This is because they are running a deficit of over $25 million in this cycle. At the current rate of sales we may not see an increase greater than the minimum, at least until the other states join in early 2015. I've already heard a few complaints of the jackpot being capped but only increasing MC prizes by 2. LOL

                    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                      Avatar
                      Wyomissing, PA
                      United States
                      Member #161050
                      November 15, 2014
                      301 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: December 7, 2014, 6:43 pm - IP Logged

                      Correction Bang Head

                      (wish edit function didn't expire lol)

                      Forgot to update my spreadsheet formulas awhile back, so there was an error in the above calculations.

                      Draw #JackpotClub PrizesSalesTicketsClub Odds (Adj.)
                      1$9,100,00010$3,861,245772,2497,315,769
                      2$10,900,00012$3,595,865719,1736,094,255
                      3$12,700,00014$3,659,900731,9805,224,106
                      4$15,400,00016$3,217,040643,4084,568,316
                      5$15,400,00018$6,434,0801,286,8164,078,677
                      6$15,400,00020$12,868,1602,573,6323,703,264
                      7$15,400,00022$25,736,3205,147,2643,426,130
                      8$15,400,00024$51,472,64010,294,5283,251,644
                      9$15,400,00053$102,945,28020,589,0561,576,419

                      Basic conclusion is the same though. Interestingly, they are so far in the hole that even if sales double for the next 4 drawings, the MC prizes will only increase by 2. This is because they are running a deficit of over $25 million in this cycle. At the current rate of sales we may not see an increase greater than the minimum, at least until the other states join in early 2015. I've already heard a few complaints of the jackpot being capped but only increasing MC prizes by 2. LOL

                      Interesting info. The total number of tickets sold in the past drawing was only 643,408?  The top prize is maxed out, and yet the number of tickets sold is trending down. Not a good sign. I can't imagine sales doubling, and then again and again to upwards of 10,000,000 tickets in just 4 drawings. Maybe it will happen, in which case MMC proves itself being profitable, and MUSL is vindicated in their choices of how the game is structured. I play a lot at various locations, and I'm not experiencing the excitement - see lots of ads, but not seeing many playing the game. Time will tell how this plays out.

                      Your numbers look to be spot-on in regards to the projected odds. However, if one assumes there will be a top prize hit this upcoming Friday (the odds are ~56:1 against that occurring), then the odds for the next drawing is far better than waiting until later. 1,286,816 tickets / 18 millionaire prizes = 1 in 71,490 chance of winning a million. A darn good value for $5. Of course, to reiterate, that assumes the top prize is hit, which, despite the ~1:56 odds (or low as zero, if the computer number randomizer MUSL uses is rigged; can't rule that out due to lack of transparency of the equipment utilized and draw process), is possible, as the numerous early jackpot hits in PB and MM well illustrate.

                      With all that said, it would be great to see 200+ millionaire club prizes available in a draw. Not just for the obvious reason that they'd be more prizes to win, but also, as you explain, the total number of tickets sold would presumably increase at a somewhat slower rate, further improving the odds of winning.

                      Another factor, which I've not seen discussed yet, to consider when playing is what the PB and MM jackpots are at. Presumably, if one or both those are very large, that would affect the number of players of MMC ... not sure whether it would help or hurt, but something worth analyzing. My hunch is a very large PB / MM jackpot (ie. $500+ million) would drive some MMC sales, but reduce the amount high-roller MMC players would wager - they'd likely shift more of their play budget towards the very large PB / MM jackpot game.

                        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                        Happyland
                        United States
                        Member #146344
                        September 1, 2013
                        1129 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: December 7, 2014, 7:09 pm - IP Logged

                        Interesting info. The total number of tickets sold in the past drawing was only 643,408?  The top prize is maxed out, and yet the number of tickets sold is trending down. Not a good sign. I can't imagine sales doubling, and then again and again to upwards of 10,000,000 tickets in just 4 drawings. Maybe it will happen, in which case MMC proves itself being profitable, and MUSL is vindicated in their choices of how the game is structured. I play a lot at various locations, and I'm not experiencing the excitement - see lots of ads, but not seeing many playing the game. Time will tell how this plays out.

                        Your numbers look to be spot-on in regards to the projected odds. However, if one assumes there will be a top prize hit this upcoming Friday (the odds are ~56:1 against that occurring), then the odds for the next drawing is far better than waiting until later. 1,286,816 tickets / 18 millionaire prizes = 1 in 71,490 chance of winning a million. A darn good value for $5. Of course, to reiterate, that assumes the top prize is hit, which, despite the ~1:56 odds (or low as zero, if the computer number randomizer MUSL uses is rigged; can't rule that out due to lack of transparency of the equipment utilized and draw process), is possible, as the numerous early jackpot hits in PB and MM well illustrate.

                        With all that said, it would be great to see 200+ millionaire club prizes available in a draw. Not just for the obvious reason that they'd be more prizes to win, but also, as you explain, the total number of tickets sold would presumably increase at a somewhat slower rate, further improving the odds of winning.

                        Another factor, which I've not seen discussed yet, to consider when playing is what the PB and MM jackpots are at. Presumably, if one or both those are very large, that would affect the number of players of MMC ... not sure whether it would help or hurt, but something worth analyzing. My hunch is a very large PB / MM jackpot (ie. $500+ million) would drive some MMC sales, but reduce the amount high-roller MMC players would wager - they'd likely shift more of their play budget towards the very large PB / MM jackpot game.

                        Well, the 1.28 million tickets was a "doubling sales" scenario. MUSL actually only projects $3,135,234 in sales for next Friday (and they actually overestimated this past drawing), which means the odds would be 1 in 34,835.93 given there is a top prize winner. But I think it's important to stress given there is a top prize winner. Those odds sound great, but that is basically cherry-picking with the idea that you would get those odds. Like you said, the chances are against there even being a winner, so as I illustrated, the real odds are much much worse. Nobody can choose whether there will be a winner in the drawing they play (if it were that easy) Smile

                        For this game to be a breakeven proposition, you would need a drawing with at least 225 MC prizes. Even if only 1 ticket was sold. I do similiar analysis on PB and MM and those would need annuities over $1 billion I believe, due to the large influx of sales that follow such jackpots.

                        I agree with what you're saying about MMC sales being lower due to PB/MM jackpot size, but lower MMC sales also mean lower chance of there being a top prize hit. So it kinda cancels out. You can have higher sales with higher chance of your second-prize materializing, but at the cost of worse odds due to more people playing. The odds for the MC prize is actually more correlated to the number of available prizes, and lesser so for the number of tickets sold.

                        As far as "when to play," I play rollover games based on cumulative probabilities. Like if PB is very high jackpot and the projected sales would put it at 90% cumulative probability (any winner in current or prior draw), then I may play because it becomes less likely for the game to continue rolling over.

                        For MMC, this will take a long time. LOL

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                          Avatar

                          United States
                          Member #160355
                          October 25, 2014
                          101 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: December 7, 2014, 8:15 pm - IP Logged

                          I share your interest or "no interest" in the tv show. I bought my second ticket last week ... my decision was to wait till the $25 million limit was hit and then cover the game ... decided to play the week before when it was $21 million. I didn't realize that two out of five numbers would give your $5 back ... I had two numbers and one number was "one number off" ... the famous "one number off" routine that has cost many gamblers a small fortune ... always in the right neighborhood just on the wrong porch!

                          Seeing that you are in PA ... our best shot at $1 million may be the $20 raffle game going on now ... I'm always one to experiment ... in 2006 I bought 25 tickets spread out for the summer raffle game. I bought a ticket every Mon, Wed and Fri ... I normally go 2 or 3 tickets but I had to get it out of system, beside 2006 was a bad year ... I needed a million dollars as soon as possible. No hits ... not even $100 ... but what is a lousy 25 tickets out of 500,000 tickets total, never did it again ... will just stick to my 2 or 3 tickets. Actually, in 2006 the tickets sold was 625,000 I think and the the next game they dropped the tickets sales to 500,000 ... but give or take and extra 125,000 tickets ... where do 25 tickets fit into the scheme of things ?

                          I do have a question for LottoMetro (or anyone) ... so the number of millionaires went from 16 to 18 for next Friday ... is this a "fixed" total with no change if sales are up ... like they do for PB and MM as ticket sales increase on a large jackpot? Then will the number of possible millionaires always increase just by two as nobody hits the $25 million jackpot for a month or two ... if this were to actually happen. Would there be more millionaire chances added ... like 5 or 6 instead of just two.

                          I am thinking that once CA joins, the jackpot will be hit more often so the game will start to lose interest for me ... I decided to buy two tickets for next Friday ... before CA gets into the game in Jan, I may be wrong on that date.

                          I also wish you had an option to receive some money if you didn't want to go to Vegas ... I agree with all you said about $500 and Vegas ... some people will enjoy a nice trip or vacation and I will pass.

                          I also have one other question to understand things better ... just because there are 18 possible millionaire chances next Friday ... people living in PA (or other states) "do not" really have 18 chances to win ... if I understand the rules. There could not be 10 or 12 winners from PA ... just maybe 2 or 4 total, am I correct?

                          That takes some of the luster of the game for me ... a small state actually only has one chance or one slot at a winner ... like the Virgin Islands for example?

                          Thanks all and GLTA ...

                          Hey Crazy Wombat,

                          I pretty much did the same thing as you a few years back with that raffle. Pick up a few here and there.

                          Next thing I knew I had 25 tickets as well with nothing to show, LMAO.

                          Right now for new years one I have 2 and might pick up 2-3 more but as someone pointed 

                          out to me earlier is that the Quinto game has better odds at a Mil then the raffle. Quinto is fixed 

                          at $50,000 per win. You buy $20 of the same number and the odds come in at 1-100,000.

                           

                          As far as the MMC game goes I can't see this game lasting a year. People are confused on how to play/win.

                          I personally don't mind the game. The TV show and online entering portion is a waste to me at best.

                            Avatar
                            Jacksonville
                            United States
                            Member #153806
                            March 26, 2014
                            345 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: December 7, 2014, 8:32 pm - IP Logged

                            Correction Bang Head

                            (wish edit function didn't expire lol)

                            Forgot to update my spreadsheet formulas awhile back, so there was an error in the above calculations.

                            Draw #JackpotClub PrizesSalesTicketsClub Odds (Adj.)
                            1$9,100,00010$3,861,245772,2497,315,769
                            2$10,900,00012$3,595,865719,1736,094,255
                            3$12,700,00014$3,659,900731,9805,224,106
                            4$15,400,00016$3,217,040643,4084,568,316
                            5$15,400,00018$6,434,0801,286,8164,078,677
                            6$15,400,00020$12,868,1602,573,6323,703,264
                            7$15,400,00022$25,736,3205,147,2643,426,130
                            8$15,400,00024$51,472,64010,294,5283,251,644
                            9$15,400,00053$102,945,28020,589,0561,576,419

                            Basic conclusion is the same though. Interestingly, they are so far in the hole that even if sales double for the next 4 drawings, the MC prizes will only increase by 2. This is because they are running a deficit of over $25 million in this cycle. At the current rate of sales we may not see an increase greater than the minimum, at least until the other states join in early 2015. I've already heard a few complaints of the jackpot being capped but only increasing MC prizes by 2. LOL

                            Hello LottoMetro,

                            As a CPA, I appreciate the detailed explanation of the odds on the MMC game.  From a practical perspective, I do not foresee the ticket sales doubling anytime soon (the lotto operators at the stores still don't even know what I am talking about every time I try to buy a ticket for this game).  I think we are most likely going to see a gradual increase in ticket sales (~100,000 per rollover) until the number of millionaire winners exceeds the 30 range and people really become interested.

                            As you pointed out, there are really two possible ways to try to benefit from this.  You can wait it out for a while until the prizes rollover and the increased ticket sales increase the likelihood of a top prize winner.  Or you can play at a decent clip now (4-5 tickets per drawing) and hope that somebody hits early like what happened a few weeks ago.  If someone hits early, your odds of the million dollar prize are fairly decent relatively speaking because ticket sales are low.  My scenarios do not envision drastically increased sales for at least another 4-5 rollovers with the minimum increase in millionaire prizes.

                            I'll keep buying my 4-5 tickets a week at least for now.  If the number of million dollar prizes starts to increase exponentially as your chart reflects, I may start to put in some additional funds into the game.

                            Thanks again.

                              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                              Happyland
                              United States
                              Member #146344
                              September 1, 2013
                              1129 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: December 7, 2014, 9:04 pm - IP Logged

                              I forgot to address CW's question:

                              I do have a question for LottoMetro (or anyone) ... so the number of millionaires went from 16 to 18 for next Friday ... is this a "fixed" total with no change if sales are up ... like they do for PB and MM as ticket sales increase on a large jackpot? Then will the number of possible millionaires always increase just by two as nobody hits the $25 million jackpot for a month or two ... if this were to actually happen. Would there be more millionaire chances added ... like 5 or 6 instead of just two.

                              The exact formula goes like this:

                              Club prizes = Max[rounddown(((total sales * top tier %) - cash jackpot)/1000000), Prior MCP + 2]

                              So you take the greater of the allocated MC prizes (rounded down to nearest integer) or the previous MC prizes plus 2. Note that you use the cash jackpot for THIS draw, and total sales should include THIS draw as well. The prizes advertised are the "minimum," and after the draw occurs and sales tallied this may change.

                              Since the game is operating deep in the red, it isn't hard to see why the increase will be minimal for some time. If sales were hovering around where the lottery originally forecast, we would see about 77 millionaire prizes by the twelfth drawing. It will probably take twice as long at the current rate.

                              As far as how many people win prizes in each state, well anything is possible though not necessarily probable. Over time the winners will coincide with proportion of sales, just like any other lottery game. The states that sell the most tickets will have the most MC winners. NY, FL, PA, TX, NJ are top contenders here.

                              Some ways to play this game are ideal versus others but the reality is that mathematically-speaking, it is not a very good wager (especially compared to other games at the same price point). I think it's great for anybody pursuing the chance to get on the TV show though. Personally, I will probably be sitting out for a long time.

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                                 
                                Page 9 of 13