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Monopoly Millionaires game

Topic closed. 184 replies. Last post 2 years ago by LottoMetro.

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Happyland
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September 1, 2013
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Posted: December 26, 2014, 3:17 am - IP Logged

" the remaining Top Prize pool money will be reallocated proportionately among prize levels 2-10. "

If I win anything at all in next Saturday's PB drawing I'll give you the winnings or a million bucks, whichever is more.

I won't break that promise, but it's worthless because I won't have a PB ticket. I'm guessing that the PA lottery's promise isn't worth much more.  They can keep the promise by giving everybody an extra nothing if there isn't anything available after paying off the previous jackpot prize. In the meantime some players may get a warm, fuzzy feeling, or even buy extra tickets that will almost certainly earn the states another $2 a pop.

It's possible they'll actually be handing out some extra big prizes, but what are the odds and how much would it be? The last drawing will be the 10th, and IIRC they've never sold 1 million tickets for a drawing, so let's generously figure total sales of $50 million. With about 32% (again, IIRC, and based on that being 32% of gross sales and not 32% of the 60% of sales that goes towards prizes) going to the jackpot prize pool the total prize pool for the entire run of 10 drawings would be $15 million. The cash payout for the jackpot winner was about $12.8 million, so that would leave a positive balance of $2.2 million IF they actually had total sales averaging 1 million tickets per drawing. I think that's a pretty big "if".
"I get the need to operate within liability limits"If they just rode it out with the original format they probably would operate within the liability limits just be letting probability work over the long haul. The risk is that improbable things can happen and if there's a jackpot winner the guaranteed prizes cost at least $18 million. That's a fair amount of money when it's 4 weeks of gross sales, and it seems they're unwilling to take that risk.If they were stupid enough to get locked into the $5 ticket cost and the long odds I don't see any way of fixing the game. Reducing the jackpot and basing the number of millionaire club prizes on actual sales will reduce the risk, but there's not much upside to a game that earns  $52 million per year and then splitting that between 20 states. That hypothetical $52 million is based on the 40% share the lotteries would get from 52 drawings selling 500,000 tickets, which seems very generous in light of actual sales and vastly reduced payouts, with no reduction for actual operating costs.

If they just rode it out with the original format they probably would operate within the liability limits just be letting probability work over the long haul. The risk is that improbable things can happen and if there's a jackpot winner the guaranteed prizes cost at least $18 million. That's a fair amount of money when it's 4 weeks of gross sales, and it seems they're unwilling to take that risk.

BINGO! That early jackpot win shook them to the core. One of the big lotteries, I think Texas, even brought this up during their meeting. They said that the vendor or MUSL or whoever led the lotteries to believe that it would be much longer before a hit would occur, so they would be relatively safe (internally they were saying expected hit around 12th draw, and that's with $20 million+ in sales each draw). Of course we all know randomness doesn't conform to our calculations/models.  They may have stuck it out, but the liability was just too great and the lotteries were forced to purchase insurance (a significant cost) to cover the possibility of more wins while the game was operating in the red. Finally TX stepped up and said "we're out," and up to that point even the other states were still taking a "wait and see" approach. But eventually they caved too. I'm sure there's a lot of blame and finger pointing going on internally, if anything I blame bad research which led to bad sales projections (although lotteries should have KNOWN better, that their forecast was much too optimistic), which ultimately exposed the game to high risk. Not to mention all the confusing elements of this game, and all-around poor education on the lotteries' part to both players and retailers.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2017: 0% (0 tickets)
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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    Wyomissing, PA
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    November 15, 2014
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    Posted: December 26, 2014, 3:26 am - IP Logged

    LM ... yes that's the question ... if we knew more about everything ... buying more tickets for the final drawing would make no sense if there really is no "extra money" to be distributed ... I will probably just stick with my one ticket and see what happens.

    Not much time left to get more information before the drawing ... whether to buy a few extra tickets or not.

    CW

    About the only way I see there being extra money, as LottoMetro speculates, is if the previous "top prize" hit / club winners share was already paid for, which presumably is the case.

    Doing a quick back of the envelope estimate, I'd say PA Lottery has about $1 million set aside for the "top prize" ... seems a lot, but that's over the course of 6 drawings, which goes to show how little revenue the game takes in. PA Lottery putting a $million towards roll-downs, for player goodwill, is nothing compared to the liability they'll be facing, if anyone hits the "top prize" tonight.

    If PA Lottery really does put a $million or so towards roll-down, the prizes could easily be upwards of 10 times, or even more, as large. Assuming one is confident that will occur, playing 10 - 20 tickets ($50-$100 worth) could be worthwhile. Not worth betting the farm though, since the vast majority of lower tiers pay so little relative to the $5 wager per ticket. Personally, I've bought two, which is the amount I often buy. May buy another later today, but that will be it - unless I hit the Big 4 and have some extra funds to spend.

      joshuacloak's avatar - Money Swim-uncle-scrooge-mcduck-35997717-677-518.jpg

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      Posted: December 26, 2014, 3:44 am - IP Logged

      'if anything I blame bad research which led to bad sales projections"

      Lottometro, I have suggestion for you to tell them your self, tell them to go back to simple wisdom.

      "keep it simple stupid" - kiss.

      MMC game was not simple. Plus all other reasons i hated it "share the wealth, capped jackpot players really don't care, only say they do, sells numbers back me vs what they say......"

      Hell what there doing to dollar add on game to powerball is not simple. 

      Mark my words, the sells for 1 dollar addon will go down. at lest by % of ratio form base game sells to  new 1 dollar  addon game, it's about 10% buy ratio give or take few % for current for addon game.

      if major jackpots of 500+ million happen more often , they should with them higher odds,  that will indeed drive overall sells much higher but that addon game a ticking time bomb of doom.

      The details you shared for monopoly and recent pb changes coming yell not simple.

      Thro I doubt they just keep the new higher odds and go back to current pb 1 dollar addon,

      they want to take  it way beyond simple logic of jackpot sells more tickets, force on jackpot and don't lower it's prize fund for crying out loud.......................

       

      but to repeat my self, they need to force on simple game designs,  these recent ideas are not simple changes, these ideas need to be taken out back like old yeller and shot before they do anymore harm. and I really like the lottery and that movie dog to boot, but some things need to die in life.

       

      Also am sure these are players the market research teams find to test new "game ideas" are not people you want to be doing  market research on:

       

      Elephant may be what they tell you in research,  but massive  jackpot (the moon) is correct game design. stop listing to idiots is what am suggesting lottery does.

      No bees, no honey.

        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
        Happyland
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        Posted: December 26, 2014, 4:29 am - IP Logged

        About the only way I see there being extra money, as LottoMetro speculates, is if the previous "top prize" hit / club winners share was already paid for, which presumably is the case.

        Doing a quick back of the envelope estimate, I'd say PA Lottery has about $1 million set aside for the "top prize" ... seems a lot, but that's over the course of 6 drawings, which goes to show how little revenue the game takes in. PA Lottery putting a $million towards roll-downs, for player goodwill, is nothing compared to the liability they'll be facing, if anyone hits the "top prize" tonight.

        If PA Lottery really does put a $million or so towards roll-down, the prizes could easily be upwards of 10 times, or even more, as large. Assuming one is confident that will occur, playing 10 - 20 tickets ($50-$100 worth) could be worthwhile. Not worth betting the farm though, since the vast majority of lower tiers pay so little relative to the $5 wager per ticket. Personally, I've bought two, which is the amount I often buy. May buy another later today, but that will be it - unless I hit the Big 4 and have some extra funds to spend.

        PA is blowing smoke up players' behinds. Bottom right of table shows how much money there is to give away. LOL

        Date of Draw10/24/201410/31/201411/7/201411/14/201411/21/201411/28/201412/5/201412/12/201412/19/2014Totals
        Drawing Sales (PA)$615,020$462,975$768,095$612,815$561,750$514,525$483,020$359,550$305,830$4,683,580
        Prize Pool (PA)$307,510$231,488$384,048$306,408$280,875$257,263$241,510$179,775$152,915$2,341,790
        Fixed-Prizes Contribution$109,383$82,341$136,607$108,990$99,908$91,509$85,906$63,947$54,392$832,984
        Jackpot/MCP Contribution$198,127$149,146$247,440$197,417$180,967$165,753$155,604$115,828$98,523$1,508,806
        Total Contribution (Check)$307,510$231,488$384,048$306,408$280,875$257,263$241,510$179,775$152,915$2,341,790
        Fixed-Prizes Liability$96,902$71,134$135,210$92,082$116,466$79,066$75,643$54,076$47,403$767,982
        Jackpot/MCP Liability$0$0$3,581,595$0$0$0$0$0$0$3,581,595
        Total Liability$96,902$71,134$3,716,805$92,082$116,466$79,066$75,643$54,076$47,403$4,349,577
        Total Excess/Shortfall$210,608$160,354($3,332,758)$214,326$164,409$178,197$165,867$125,699$105,512($2,007,787)

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

        This of course ignores the possibility of insurance purchases; however, those actually come out of sales too (10%) and would be continuous. And it's highly unlikely the state was purchasing liability protection leading up to the big hit, since it was so unexpected that early on. They probably have it now though. LOL

        P.S. The lotteries' agreement with MUSL for all inter-jurisdictional games (PB, MMC, etc.) already stipulates that any excess is returned at the end of game. Wasn't sure on this until I checked, so the fact that they have announced a possible rolldown is not special after all. Just unusual for them to broadcast it, given the above.

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2017: 0% (0 tickets)
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

          Avatar
          Wyomissing, PA
          United States
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          November 15, 2014
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          Posted: December 26, 2014, 4:32 am - IP Logged

          If all excess must be returned, then PA Lottery will have to sell about 20 times the number of MMC tickets as last week. Could happen, but highly unlikely. Even if they do, presumably, any excess would be so small to not even matter - say a $5 payout might be $6. Not worth getting excited about, let alone playing anything extra.

          Shame the PA Lottery doesn't mention more detail about the roll-down. There's going to be bad PR for the PA Lottery, if there's no "top prize" hit and the lower tier prizes are all still the same. This is shaping up as a classic bait and switch scam, which surprises me - thought the PA Lottery was better than that. Maybe they are - we'll see late tonight when the prize amounts are posted. Hoping PA Lottery does the right thing.

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            Kentucky
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            February 14, 2006
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            Posted: December 26, 2014, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

            If they just rode it out with the original format they probably would operate within the liability limits just be letting probability work over the long haul. The risk is that improbable things can happen and if there's a jackpot winner the guaranteed prizes cost at least $18 million. That's a fair amount of money when it's 4 weeks of gross sales, and it seems they're unwilling to take that risk.

            BINGO! That early jackpot win shook them to the core. One of the big lotteries, I think Texas, even brought this up during their meeting. They said that the vendor or MUSL or whoever led the lotteries to believe that it would be much longer before a hit would occur, so they would be relatively safe (internally they were saying expected hit around 12th draw, and that's with $20 million+ in sales each draw). Of course we all know randomness doesn't conform to our calculations/models.  They may have stuck it out, but the liability was just too great and the lotteries were forced to purchase insurance (a significant cost) to cover the possibility of more wins while the game was operating in the red. Finally TX stepped up and said "we're out," and up to that point even the other states were still taking a "wait and see" approach. But eventually they caved too. I'm sure there's a lot of blame and finger pointing going on internally, if anything I blame bad research which led to bad sales projections (although lotteries should have KNOWN better, that their forecast was much too optimistic), which ultimately exposed the game to high risk. Not to mention all the confusing elements of this game, and all-around poor education on the lotteries' part to both players and retailers.

            It was different when Texas called for a "do-over" on their All or Nothing game because it only affected that lottery, but this time it affected lots of other lotteries. It looks like somebody decided to evaluate all the possible outcomes AFTER the games began. With the MMC game, it's not as simple as stopping sales to close a loop hole and than continuing the same game because the loop hole here is the possibility of an unexpected jackpot winner.

            I'm wondering why Texas didn't evaluate the possibility the MMC game could result in large short term losses especially after their All or Nothing problems.

              mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
              JACKPOT HUNTER

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              Posted: December 26, 2014, 8:44 pm - IP Logged

              Greed marred their better sense of judgement. No surprises there.

              Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

              Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

                rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                Texas
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                Posted: December 26, 2014, 8:58 pm - IP Logged

                It was different when Texas called for a "do-over" on their All or Nothing game because it only affected that lottery, but this time it affected lots of other lotteries. It looks like somebody decided to evaluate all the possible outcomes AFTER the games began. With the MMC game, it's not as simple as stopping sales to close a loop hole and than continuing the same game because the loop hole here is the possibility of an unexpected jackpot winner.

                I'm wondering why Texas didn't evaluate the possibility the MMC game could result in large short term losses especially after their All or Nothing problems.

                In AoN, Texas forgot that players like to bet certain ways, ie; all even, all odd, 1st 12, last 12.

                In Monopoly, Texas and the other states believed the big sales projections GTech promised.

                Northstar, GTech, and others always promise the moon, but they never can really guarantee big sales. The states always believe them for some reason.

                CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: December 26, 2014, 11:08 pm - IP Logged

                  In AoN, Texas forgot that players like to bet certain ways, ie; all even, all odd, 1st 12, last 12.

                  In Monopoly, Texas and the other states believed the big sales projections GTech promised.

                  Northstar, GTech, and others always promise the moon, but they never can really guarantee big sales. The states always believe them for some reason.

                  The Texas Lottery suspended MMC sales after December 12 and that's when the other states decided to suspend sales after tonight's drawing. I didn't say it as a knock on the Texas Lottery, but wondering after the All or Nothing confusion, why they didn't pay more attention to the MMC game rules.

                  “We’re always looking for new and innovative ideas for games, and we thought Monopoly Millionaires’ Club fit the bill,” said Kentucky Lottery President and CEO Arch Gleason. “But our players vote with their dollars, and in Kentucky and elsewhere the sales just weren’t there to sustain the game.”

                   “We’re going to work with the other lotteries who were selling the product to determine where we possibly go with this game in the future, because we’ve repeatedly heard from players who say they want to see more people have a share of the winnings rather than just one gigantic top prize” said Gleason.

                  Originally conceived as a multi-tiered drawing-style game, Monopoly Millionaires’ Club debuted Oct. 19 in 23 states, but sales came in below industry projections, leading the Texas Lottery Commission to suspend sales of the game in that state following the Dec. 12 drawing. Lotteries participating in the game then made the decision yesterday (Monday) to end all sales in its current format later this month.

                  It made it much more difficult to get more states to participate when Texas dropped out. Maybe part of the sales pitch included more states participating to sustain the game. 

                    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                    Texas
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                    Posted: December 26, 2014, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

                    The Texas Lottery suspended MMC sales after December 12 and that's when the other states decided to suspend sales after tonight's drawing. I didn't say it as a knock on the Texas Lottery, but wondering after the All or Nothing confusion, why they didn't pay more attention to the MMC game rules.

                    “We’re always looking for new and innovative ideas for games, and we thought Monopoly Millionaires’ Club fit the bill,” said Kentucky Lottery President and CEO Arch Gleason. “But our players vote with their dollars, and in Kentucky and elsewhere the sales just weren’t there to sustain the game.”

                     “We’re going to work with the other lotteries who were selling the product to determine where we possibly go with this game in the future, because we’ve repeatedly heard from players who say they want to see more people have a share of the winnings rather than just one gigantic top prize” said Gleason.

                    Originally conceived as a multi-tiered drawing-style game, Monopoly Millionaires’ Club debuted Oct. 19 in 23 states, but sales came in below industry projections, leading the Texas Lottery Commission to suspend sales of the game in that state following the Dec. 12 drawing. Lotteries participating in the game then made the decision yesterday (Monday) to end all sales in its current format later this month.

                    It made it much more difficult to get more states to participate when Texas dropped out. Maybe part of the sales pitch included more states participating to sustain the game. 

                    I didn't take what you said as a knock on Texas Lottery.

                    We've all heard for years, including some LP members that players want more people winning a million dollars instead of one big winner. Where are those people when it came time to step up and vote with their money? Answer....talk is cheap.

                    I see it everyday in my store. Customer says he wants this or that, does the exact opposite.

                    Maybe it's time for MUSL to just drop MM and PB, go away, and let the states just have their lotto games, and Cash 5, and Pick 3 and Pick 4 without the competition from the big jackpot games. I know that when PB changes it's matrix in April, that's $4 a week I won't be spending anymore.

                    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                      Happyland
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                      Posted: December 27, 2014, 12:11 am - IP Logged

                      I didn't take what you said as a knock on Texas Lottery.

                      We've all heard for years, including some LP members that players want more people winning a million dollars instead of one big winner. Where are those people when it came time to step up and vote with their money? Answer....talk is cheap.

                      I see it everyday in my store. Customer says he wants this or that, does the exact opposite.

                      Maybe it's time for MUSL to just drop MM and PB, go away, and let the states just have their lotto games, and Cash 5, and Pick 3 and Pick 4 without the competition from the big jackpot games. I know that when PB changes it's matrix in April, that's $4 a week I won't be spending anymore.

                      Indeed, players speak with words but talk with money.

                      I went back and dug up the "research" conducted by SGI earlier this year. Don't remember if this is the research I thought was suspicious or if it was another document, but needless to say, there are some red flags. For instance, they compared the mean interest rating of the game before and after the inclusion of Monopoly branding. After, the rating is slightly higher, which leads you/lotteries to believe that it improves the game. However, they actually increased the sample the second time, so the difference in means isn't even significant at the 10% alpha level. Terrible. There were reasonably positive responses to "I think I would" questions concerning the frequency of purchases. But take away the "I think," and the "I would" questions exhibit drastically lower positive response. Only 1.4% said they would purchase a ticket every week. Obviously if you ask someone whether they "think" or "would," they are more comfortable answering vaguely ("think") because there are not sure of themselves. Additionally, I found a section that gauged player reaction to how the game was described to them. Upon the initial description (i.e. Monopoly branded, basic concept etc), the response was acceptably positive; however, once an additional, more detailed description was provided (likely about the fact the jackpot must get hit for MCPs), this rating actually dropped.

                      I don't know who smooth-talked these lotteries/officials, but if I was in their shoes I would've done a lot more due diligence.

                      P.S. As expected, there was no jackpot winner tonight.

                      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                      2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                        Happyland
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                        September 1, 2013
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                        Posted: December 27, 2014, 1:23 am - IP Logged

                        If all excess must be returned, then PA Lottery will have to sell about 20 times the number of MMC tickets as last week. Could happen, but highly unlikely. Even if they do, presumably, any excess would be so small to not even matter - say a $5 payout might be $6. Not worth getting excited about, let alone playing anything extra.

                        Shame the PA Lottery doesn't mention more detail about the roll-down. There's going to be bad PR for the PA Lottery, if there's no "top prize" hit and the lower tier prizes are all still the same. This is shaping up as a classic bait and switch scam, which surprises me - thought the PA Lottery was better than that. Maybe they are - we'll see late tonight when the prize amounts are posted. Hoping PA Lottery does the right thing.

                        Apparently Pennsylvania wasn't bluffing and DID pay out an excess tonight, which is really interesting. $97.50 just for matching 2 of 5! The post facto expected value for a player in this draw was more than $3 per dollar spent, or roughly $15-16 for a $5 ticket. Even I didn't expect this. LOL

                        MatchWinnersPaid Each
                        5 of 5 + PropertyNo WinnersNo Winners
                        5 of 5No WinnersNo Winners
                        4 of 5 + Property1$97,253.00
                        4 of 56$9,191.00
                        3 of 5 + Property6$7,653.50
                        2 of 5 + Property152$463.50
                        3 of 5265$382.50
                        1 of 5 + Property847$183.50
                        Property Only1375$135.50
                        2 of 53905$97.50

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                         

                        In all, they awarded $1,092,609. Had they paid the regular amounts, their total cycle liability would've ended at ($1,915,642).

                        Instead, it should be about ($3,008,251) now. The question is, where did they get the money??? Did they pull it from a promotion fund or what? Even if my calculations were off by some they should still be running a pretty deep deficit. I am not aware of any other states that paid out an excess.

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                          Avatar

                          United States
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                          December 3, 2014
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                          Posted: December 27, 2014, 5:26 am - IP Logged

                          Apparently Pennsylvania wasn't bluffing and DID pay out an excess tonight, which is really interesting. $97.50 just for matching 2 of 5! The post facto expected value for a player in this draw was more than $3 per dollar spent, or roughly $15-16 for a $5 ticket. Even I didn't expect this. LOL

                          MatchWinnersPaid Each
                          5 of 5 + PropertyNo WinnersNo Winners
                          5 of 5No WinnersNo Winners
                          4 of 5 + Property1$97,253.00
                          4 of 56$9,191.00
                          3 of 5 + Property6$7,653.50
                          2 of 5 + Property152$463.50
                          3 of 5265$382.50
                          1 of 5 + Property847$183.50
                          Property Only1375$135.50
                          2 of 53905$97.50

                           

                           

                           

                           

                           

                           

                           

                           

                           

                           

                           

                           

                          In all, they awarded $1,092,609. Had they paid the regular amounts, their total cycle liability would've ended at ($1,915,642).

                          Instead, it should be about ($3,008,251) now. The question is, where did they get the money??? Did they pull it from a promotion fund or what? Even if my calculations were off by some they should still be running a pretty deep deficit. I am not aware of any other states that paid out an excess.

                          WOW ... PA just had their own little El Gordo in December !

                          I agree I wasn't expecting those kind of payouts ... I would have easily bought ten more tickets for $50 ... just getting two numbers on one ticket would still show a profit. I was like everybody else, maybe only expecting a few extra dollars ... just didn't have any idea the payments would be increased that much.

                          Another missed opportunity ...

                          CW

                            sully16's avatar - sharan
                            Ringleader
                            Michigan
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                            Posted: December 27, 2014, 7:17 am - IP Logged

                            This turned out to be a big disappointment, wonder what they are going to do with the Jackpot money?

                             HyperBe Happy.

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                              Wyomissing, PA
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                              November 15, 2014
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                              Posted: December 27, 2014, 10:31 am - IP Logged

                              Wish I'd won. I played a couple of MMC tickets nearly every drawing and never won. MMC was just plain unlucky for me - maybe I'll win a trip to Vegas; have 49 entries. Anyways, those who did hit last night got a nice holiday gift. The payouts were well above what I'd estimated. I was figuring somewhere in the 5x - 10x range, not 20x. Maybe PA Lottery will make it up to me later today in the Daily Number or Big-4 - it's the least they can do Wink

                              As for where the funds came from, PA Lottery likely just absorbed the loss as cost of doing business. Presumably, like they already do with large Daily Number and Big-4 payouts. $3 million isn't much in the whole scope of things for the PA Lottery. And the extra payouts is the type of goodwill gesture that will generate more loyal players, and increase wagering. Smart move.

                                 
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