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How soon till the next $ Billion $ Jackpot?

Topic closed. 129 replies. Last post 10 months ago by TheMeatman2005.

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When do you think the next jackpot will top $1 Billion

Feb 24 [ 1 ]  [2.22%]
Feb 27 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
March 2 [ 4 ]  [8.89%]
March 5 [ 2 ]  [4.44%]
March 9 [ 3 ]  [6.67%]
March 12 [ 5 ]  [11.11%]
March 16 [ 7 ]  [15.56%]
March 19 [ 23 ]  [51.11%]
Total Valid Votes [ 45 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 11 ]  
Candy-Lane's avatar - yocco

United States
Member #167255
July 2, 2015
102 Posts
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Posted: February 5, 2016, 9:30 pm - IP Logged

I would love to see a billion dollar jackpot next month! However, I think it will be won before then.

Perhaps we'll see another billion dollar jackpot next fall.


    United States
    Member #106134
    February 13, 2011
    806 Posts
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    Posted: February 5, 2016, 9:33 pm - IP Logged

    We'll see it get to a billion for sure again, seems like everyone is cursed by "can't win"

    If you are anywhere near Tennessee buy tickets there, you have a much better chance of winning if you do.  The Tennessee Lottery seldom if ever sells a losing ticket anyway so you're just about certain to get a little money back at least.

      Avatar
      NY
      United States
      Member #23835
      October 16, 2005
      3502 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: February 6, 2016, 2:39 am - IP Logged

      i think your # 4 should be 37% but yeah thanks . isnt the  chance based on  tickets sold in the draw, and not the pot size?

      I was switching between two windows and butchered that while editing to adjust the format. Here's what it should  be:

       

      •  $202 million   57.5%
      •  $227 million   48.3%
      •  $255 million   40.3%
      •  $300 million   32.0%
      •  $334 million   23.1%
      •  $528 million   10.5%
      •  $948 million     1.3%

      The jackpot amounts are the amounts from the last run. The percentages are based on the reported coverage of the possible combinations (based on data from the TX lottery) for the jackpots from the last run.  That means these are the probabilities for what would happen if this run had the same progression. Now that it has rolled past $110 million  (actually 112 this time) the chance of continuing past 202 would be 57.5% the progression (and therefore ticket sales) was the same as the last run.

      Since this run is progressing a bit faster each jackpot has a somewhat higher chance of being hit. Last time the jackpot rolled from 110 to 127, and there was a 5.4% chance it would be hit. This time around it rolled from 112 to 136, and there's a 6.5% chance that it will be hit (based on the  projected sales).

        savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
        adelaide sa
        Australia
        Member #37136
        April 11, 2006
        3315 Posts
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        Posted: February 6, 2016, 6:43 am - IP Logged

        thanks again KY  so my expectation of slowed  jackpot building isn't working  out yet. its actually building faster! I can see by those percentages that its not likely to get to $1.5B anytime soon.

        2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596

        keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318

          zephbe's avatar - animal butterfly.jpg
          South Carolina
          United States
          Member #77167
          July 15, 2009
          568 Posts
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          Posted: February 6, 2016, 8:34 am - IP Logged

          I predict a winner well before it hits a billion.

          I Agree!

          Every champion was once a contender who refused to give up.-Rocky Balboa

          “Don’t let someone who gave up on their dreams talk you out of going after yours.” – Zig Ziglar

            SilverLion's avatar - 8ball

            United States
            Member #165541
            April 12, 2015
            554 Posts
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            Posted: February 6, 2016, 9:12 am - IP Logged

            We'll see it get to a billion for sure again, seems like everyone is cursed by "can't win"

            If you are anywhere near Tennessee buy tickets there, you have a much better chance of winning if you do.  The Tennessee Lottery seldom if ever sells a losing ticket anyway so you're just about certain to get a little money back at least.

            Reverse the curse!!

            Only 24 million increase last draw.  So at least another month before its around 225.  I think my prediction is still on track.

            The Tennessee winners will win easily again, probably.  All they need to do is play the trends.

              ressuccess's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg

              United States
              Member #93164
              June 23, 2010
              1414 Posts
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              Posted: February 6, 2016, 3:59 pm - IP Logged

              My vote is March 16 because I hope it keeps rolling.

                Avatar
                NY
                United States
                Member #23835
                October 16, 2005
                3502 Posts
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                Posted: February 7, 2016, 3:23 am - IP Logged

                "its not likely to get to $1.5B anytime soon."

                In some ways it's probably even worse than you thought. As of now we've had another roll, so it's more likely to reach each future point, but only by a small amount. The chance of a rollover was about 93.5%, but since it happened it's now 100%. That means that the chance of rolling to each subsequent point is 1/.935, or about 1.07 times more likely. The chance of rolling past $528 million has increased from 10.5% all the way to 11.2%. Woohoo! The chance of rolling past 949 is now a whopping 1.4%.

                Since this progression is growing faster, it's possible that (if there's no winner) the jackpot could be closer to 600 than 528, in which case one more roll might push it past a billion, instead of coming up a bit shy. The actual chance would depend on the actual progression (and therefore sales for each jackpot), but it could be somewhere around 8 to 11%. Of course it wouldn't be anywhere close to 1.5 billion. That territory is still in the 1 to 1.4% range.

                Even if we get 3 more rolls the chances don't improve all that much. Figure the chances of those 3 rolls would be better than 90% each time, making the chance of all 3 at least 73%. At that point the chances of rolling past 528 and 948 would only increase to 15.4% and 1.9%. It's not until we get the less likely rollovers that things really improve.

                  TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
                  Brooklyn, NY
                  United States
                  Member #169723
                  October 29, 2015
                  885 Posts
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                  Posted: February 7, 2016, 7:26 pm - IP Logged

                  UPDATE: No winner in Saturday's 2/7/16 Powerball drawing.

                  The jackpot was increased $21 mil from $136 mil. $157 mil. That represents an increase of only 15.4412%.  The prior jackpot was increased $24 mil from $112 mil to $136 mil. which represents an increase of 21.42857%.

                  If there continues to be no winner, the jackpot should reach the $1 billion mark within 14 more drawings (21 draws without a jackpot winner)(approx March 26th )

                  The Meatman

                  “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

                  Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

                    Avatar
                    New Member

                    United States
                    Member #172730
                    February 3, 2016
                    22 Posts
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                    Posted: February 8, 2016, 11:59 am - IP Logged

                    With almost 1:300million odds, multiple billion dollar jackpots a year is certainly conceivable. I still haven't won so maybe the next billion dollar jackpot is for me :)

                      Avatar

                      United States
                      Member #171241
                      January 4, 2016
                      75 Posts
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                      Posted: February 8, 2016, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

                      UPDATE: No winner in Saturday's 2/7/16 Powerball drawing.

                      The jackpot was increased $21 mil from $136 mil. $157 mil. That represents an increase of only 15.4412%.  The prior jackpot was increased $24 mil from $112 mil to $136 mil. which represents an increase of 21.42857%.

                      If there continues to be no winner, the jackpot should reach the $1 billion mark within 14 more drawings (21 draws without a jackpot winner)(approx March 26th )

                      I think in your analysis you’re looking at the wrong set of numbers. The cash value, not the jackpot is the dollar amount you want to keep focus of. We are still feeling the aftershocks of the previous record breaking jackpot in a couple of ways. First, the current mega millions jackpot seems to be suffering from the effects of the powerball’s gravitational pull based upon the meager rollover amounts it’s been generating since that record jackpot from last month. Second, this current powerball jackpot is on a record setting pace. The cash value took just 7 drawings or rollovers to cross the 100 million mark. To the best of my knowledge this has never happened before. Even back in the good old days of 2012-2013 right after they changed tweaked the format and increased the price of a single bet to $2.00, it would take at least 8 or 9 rollovers to hit that cash 100 m mark.

                      The chart below provides a better visual comparison between some notable jackpots from the past 3 years and this current run. You can see from the chart that the last PB run(1/13) took 10 rollovers to approach the 100m mark. Based on this data I figure at the most there would need to be 9 more drawings rolling over to get to the billion dollar mark. This scenario would put the billion + drawing on 3/12/16. 

                       

                      Date Jackpot Won

                      5/18/2013

                      8/7/2013

                      9/18/2013

                      2/19/2014

                      2/11/2015

                      1/13/2016

                      Current

                      -

                      JACKPOT

                      CASH

                      JACKPOT

                      CASH

                      JACKPOT

                      CASH

                      JACKPOT

                      CASH

                      JACKPOT

                      CASH

                      JACKPOT

                      CASH

                      JACKPOT

                      CASH

                      21

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      584.10

                      381.11

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      20

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      394.50

                      266.60

                      1586.40

                      949.80

                      -

                      -

                      19

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      324.00

                      226.00

                      949.80

                      588.90

                      -

                      -

                      18

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      289.00

                      198.40

                      524.10

                      320.70

                      -

                      -

                      17

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      261.00

                      179.10

                      355.80

                      218.00

                      -

                      -

                      16

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      425.30

                      242.19

                      230.00

                      157.80

                      301.80

                      185.30

                      -

                      -

                      15

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      330.00

                      189.00

                      208.00

                      142.70

                      255.00

                      158.40

                      -

                      -

                      14

                      590.50

                      370.90

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      -

                      284.00

                      162.70

                      194.00

                      129.30

                      227.00

                      141.00

                      -

                      -

                      13

                      360.00

                      229.20

                      448.40

                      258.16

                      -

                      -

                      247.00

                      142.50

                      176.00

                      117.30

                      202.00

                      125.90

                      -

                      -

                      12

                      270.00

                      175.80

                      300.00

                      172.70

                      399.40

                      223.26

                      215.00

                      124.10

                      162.00

                      105.50

                      180.00

                      112.10

                      -

                      -

                      11

                      222.00

                      144.50

                      235.00

                      136.50

                      317.00

                      176.30

                      194.00

                      110.70

                      146.00

                      95.10

                      164.00

                      99.60

                      -

                      -

                      10

                      191.00

                      124.70

                      196.00

                      114.60

                      245.00

                      136.30

                      171.00

                      97.60

                      131.00

                      84.30

                      145.00

                      88.00

                      -

                      -

                      9

                      165.00

                      107.70

                      166.00

                      97.10

                      203.00

                      115.50

                      152.00

                      85.60

                      120.00

                      77.20

                      127.00

                      77.90

                      -

                      -

                      8

                      140.00

                      91.30

                      141.00

                      82.00

                      169.00

                      96.10

                      131.00

                      73.80

                      110.00

                      71.00

                      110.00

                      67.40

                      157.00

                      101.70

                      7

                      116.00

                      75.60

                      116.00

                      67.50

                      142.00

                      78.80

                      113.00

                      63.20

                      100.00

                      64.60

                      100.00

                      61.30

                      136.00

                      87.80

                      6

                      95.00

                      61.30

                      94.00

                      55.70

                      116.00

                      64.40

                      93.00

                      52.00

                      90.00

                      58.20

                      90.00

                      55.10

                      112.00

                      72.30

                      5

                      80.00

                      51.60

                      80.00

                      47.30

                      92.00

                      51.40

                      80.00

                      44.10

                      80.00

                      51.70

                      80.00

                      48.90

                      96.00

                      60.70

                      4

                      70.00

                      45.40

                      70.00

                      41.00

                      70.00

                      39.00

                      70.00

                      38.60

                      70.00

                      44.10

                      70.00

                      42.80

                      75.00

                      47.40

                      3

                      60.00

                      38.90

                      60.00

                      35.20

                      60.00

                      34.70

                      60.00

                      33.20

                      60.00

                      37.80

                      60.00

                      36.70

                      60.00

                      38.10

                      2

                      50.00

                      31.40

                      50.00

                      29.40

                      50.00

                      28.90

                      50.00

                      27.70

                      50.00

                      31.60

                      50.00

                      30.50

                      50.00

                      31.80

                      1

                      40.00

                      25.10

                      40.00

                      23.50

                      40.00

                      23.00

                      40.00

                      22.30

                      40.00

                      25.30

                      40.00

                      24.90

                      40.00

                      24.80

                        savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
                        adelaide sa
                        Australia
                        Member #37136
                        April 11, 2006
                        3315 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: February 8, 2016, 7:15 pm - IP Logged

                        thanks Albeone

                        thats some nice data there. the last pot seemed to be running  quite slow , till it hi a critical point, maybe when the media got behind it. and the rocket took off. i look forward to see another launch to the stars soon.

                        2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016  = -1171; 2017 = ?  TOT =  -3596

                        keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= -424; 2017 = ? TOT = - 3318

                          MsLottery's avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
                          New Member
                          0% State Tax State
                          United States
                          Member #172909
                          February 9, 2016
                          16 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: February 10, 2016, 4:18 pm - IP Logged

                          I have no idea about the PB % increases - you guys left me in the dust (and with a slight headache) with all that stuff. I'll just keep playing until my turn at being the 1: 292,201,338 comes up.

                            TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
                            Brooklyn, NY
                            United States
                            Member #169723
                            October 29, 2015
                            885 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: February 10, 2016, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

                            Either way you look at it, the percentage of increase in either cash value or annuity has decreased (compared to previous draws).

                            Previous draw dates have resulted in the jackpot being increased by between approximately 19.1% and 28.2%

                            This current drawing's annuity jackpot was increased $21 mil from $136 mil to $157 mil, a 1.1544% increase. The cash value increased $13.9 mil from $87.8 mil to $101.7 mil, a 1.1583% increase.

                            The point I was trying to make in my last post, is that with a decrease in the amount that the jackpot is increased it will take a bit longer to reach the $1 bil mark.

                            P.S. Nice chart BTW Type

                            The Meatman

                            “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

                            Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

                              LiveInGreenBay's avatar - driver
                              Green Bay
                              United States
                              Member #169391
                              October 15, 2015
                              1277 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: February 10, 2016, 4:31 pm - IP Logged

                              I predict no one will win tonight.  The easiest prediction I ever made.  LOL!

                              Never give up.  Banana