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How soon till the next $ Billion $ Jackpot?

Topic closed. 129 replies. Last post 9 months ago by TheMeatman2005.

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When do you think the next jackpot will top $1 Billion

Feb 24 [ 1 ]  [2.22%]
Feb 27 [ 0 ]  [0.00%]
March 2 [ 4 ]  [8.89%]
March 5 [ 2 ]  [4.44%]
March 9 [ 3 ]  [6.67%]
March 12 [ 5 ]  [11.11%]
March 16 [ 7 ]  [15.56%]
March 19 [ 23 ]  [51.11%]
Total Valid Votes [ 45 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 11 ]  
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The Windy City
United States
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January 10, 2016
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Posted: February 10, 2016, 6:31 pm - IP Logged

Either way you look at it, the percentage of increase in either cash value or annuity has decreased (compared to previous draws).

Previous draw dates have resulted in the jackpot being increased by between approximately 19.1% and 28.2%

This current drawing's annuity jackpot was increased $21 mil from $136 mil to $157 mil, a 1.1544% increase. The cash value increased $13.9 mil from $87.8 mil to $101.7 mil, a 1.1583% increase.

The point I was trying to make in my last post, is that with a decrease in the amount that the jackpot is increased it will take a bit longer to reach the $1 bil mark.

P.S. Nice chart BTW Type

"This current drawing's annuity jackpot was increased $21 mil from $136 mil to $157 mil, a 1.1544% increase. The cash value increased $13.9 mil from $87.8 mil to $101.7 mil, a 1.1583% increase."

 

You somehow added a 1. in front of the correct percentages of 15.44% and 15.83%.

- Wanna win at least a couple commas

    TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
    Brooklyn, NY
    United States
    Member #169723
    October 29, 2015
    877 Posts
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    Posted: February 10, 2016, 8:00 pm - IP Logged

    What I did was to translate the figure wrong off my calculator.

    If you multiply a number by 1.1544 it's the same as multiplying that number by 15.44% and then adding it to the original number.

    So.....instead of stating "This current drawing's annuity jackpot was increased $21 mil from $136 mil to $157 mil, a 1.1544 increase(or 15.44%). The cash value increased $13.9 mil from $87.8 mil to $101.7 mil, a 1.1583 (or 15.83%) increase."

    It was merely a mathematical (grammar) error. 

    The Meatman

    “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

    Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

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      NY
      United States
      Member #23835
      October 16, 2005
      3474 Posts
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      Posted: February 11, 2016, 1:00 am - IP Logged

      Either way you look at it, the percentage of increase in either cash value or annuity has decreased (compared to previous draws).

      Previous draw dates have resulted in the jackpot being increased by between approximately 19.1% and 28.2%

      This current drawing's annuity jackpot was increased $21 mil from $136 mil to $157 mil, a 1.1544% increase. The cash value increased $13.9 mil from $87.8 mil to $101.7 mil, a 1.1583% increase.

      The point I was trying to make in my last post, is that with a decrease in the amount that the jackpot is increased it will take a bit longer to reach the $1 bil mark.

      P.S. Nice chart BTW Type

      "Previous draw dates have resulted in the jackpot being increased by between approximately 19.1% and 28.2%"

      For an advertised jackpot of $136 million a 28.2% increase would be 38 million, to 174. When has it ever increased by 38 million from something in the 130 to 175 range?

      Sales increase only slightly from the starting jackpot until somewhere around 200 or so. That means that the increase as a dollar amount  is in a fairly narrow range until the jackpot reaches about 200. The minimum increase from 40 to 50 is a 25% jump, but it's only $10 million. The increase from 136 to 157 was only 3/5 as much as a percentage, but it was 110% bigger as a dollar amount.

      It's hardly a secret that jackpots for both MM and PB have been increasing at a slower rate over the last few years. That means that when you compare any particular run to one from a year or two earlier the increases will usually be smaller, but you have to compare similar jackpot amounts. This run has been an anomaly, growing at a much faster rate than anything in the last several years. It will be interesting to see if the increased pace continues.

        TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
        Brooklyn, NY
        United States
        Member #169723
        October 29, 2015
        877 Posts
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        Posted: February 11, 2016, 1:02 am - IP Logged

        UPDATE: No winner in Wednesday's 2/10/16 Powerball drawing for $157 mil.

        The annuity jackpot was increased $19 mil from $157 mil. $176 mil. which represents an increase of 12.10%.  The cash jackpot was increased $12.4 mil from $101.7 mil. to $114.1 mil. which represents an increase of 12.19%.

        The prior annuity jackpot was increased $21 mil from $136 mil to $157 mil. which represents an increase of 15.44%. The prior cash jackpot was increased $13.9 mil from $87.8 mil to $101.7 mil. which represents an increase of 15.83%

        If there continues to be no winner and the annuity jackpot grows at the current rate, it should reach the $1 billion mark within 17 more drawings (24 draws without a jackpot winner)(approx April 9, 2016 )

        The Meatman

        “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

        Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

          savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
          adelaide sa
          Australia
          Member #37136
          April 11, 2006
          3300 Posts
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          Posted: February 11, 2016, 2:50 am - IP Logged

          the last 3 draws had increases of +24m, +21m and +19m.  the last being +19m.  so it should be less chance of being won than last time?

          2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

          keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297


            United States
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            February 13, 2011
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            Posted: February 11, 2016, 8:35 am - IP Logged

            "Can't win" is strong with this one, $1,000,000,000 here we come!  Not even a 5+0 winner!

              TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
              Brooklyn, NY
              United States
              Member #169723
              October 29, 2015
              877 Posts
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              Posted: February 11, 2016, 8:50 am - IP Logged

              "Previous draw dates have resulted in the jackpot being increased by between approximately 19.1% and 28.2%"

              For an advertised jackpot of $136 million a 28.2% increase would be 38 million, to 174. When has it ever increased by 38 million from something in the 130 to 175 range?

              Sales increase only slightly from the starting jackpot until somewhere around 200 or so. That means that the increase as a dollar amount  is in a fairly narrow range until the jackpot reaches about 200. The minimum increase from 40 to 50 is a 25% jump, but it's only $10 million. The increase from 136 to 157 was only 3/5 as much as a percentage, but it was 110% bigger as a dollar amount.

              It's hardly a secret that jackpots for both MM and PB have been increasing at a slower rate over the last few years. That means that when you compare any particular run to one from a year or two earlier the increases will usually be smaller, but you have to compare similar jackpot amounts. This run has been an anomaly, growing at a much faster rate than anything in the last several years. It will be interesting to see if the increased pace continues.

              I never said it was the draw directly before this one.

              I was referring to the draw of Jan 30 where the annuity jackpot was increased from $75 mil to $96 mil.

              96 ÷ 75 = 1.28 hence the increase of 28%

              112 ÷ 96 = 1.167  (16.7%)

              136 ÷ 112 = 1.2143 (21.43%)

              157 ÷ 136 = 1.1544 (15.44%)

              176 ÷ 157 = 1.1210 (12.10%)

              On the average, the past few drawing have increased between 12% -  21%

              Using approx 15.33% as a median increase.... the annuity jackpot will reach $1 bil in approx 12 - 13 draws (if no winner) unless the jackpots increase by a higher percentage as the jackpot amount increases and the frenzy starts, then it will happen sooner.

              The Meatman

              “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

              Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

                music*'s avatar - nw bookeep.jpg
                Happy California
                United States
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                August 2, 2014
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                Posted: February 11, 2016, 10:45 am - IP Logged

                I never said it was the draw directly before this one.

                I was referring to the draw of Jan 30 where the annuity jackpot was increased from $75 mil to $96 mil.

                96 ÷ 75 = 1.28 hence the increase of 28%

                112 ÷ 96 = 1.167  (16.7%)

                136 ÷ 112 = 1.2143 (21.43%)

                157 ÷ 136 = 1.1544 (15.44%)

                176 ÷ 157 = 1.1210 (12.10%)

                On the average, the past few drawing have increased between 12% -  21%

                Using approx 15.33% as a median increase.... the annuity jackpot will reach $1 bil in approx 12 - 13 draws (if no winner) unless the jackpots increase by a higher percentage as the jackpot amount increases and the frenzy starts, then it will happen sooner.

                 Let the FRENZY begin! LOL

                Dance

                 I've been rich and I've been poor. Believe me, rich is better. 

                 Attributed to Joe E. Lewis and others

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                  United States
                  Member #171241
                  January 4, 2016
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                  Posted: February 11, 2016, 12:03 pm - IP Logged

                  "Previous draw dates have resulted in the jackpot being increased by between approximately 19.1% and 28.2%"

                  For an advertised jackpot of $136 million a 28.2% increase would be 38 million, to 174. When has it ever increased by 38 million from something in the 130 to 175 range?

                  Sales increase only slightly from the starting jackpot until somewhere around 200 or so. That means that the increase as a dollar amount  is in a fairly narrow range until the jackpot reaches about 200. The minimum increase from 40 to 50 is a 25% jump, but it's only $10 million. The increase from 136 to 157 was only 3/5 as much as a percentage, but it was 110% bigger as a dollar amount.

                  It's hardly a secret that jackpots for both MM and PB have been increasing at a slower rate over the last few years. That means that when you compare any particular run to one from a year or two earlier the increases will usually be smaller, but you have to compare similar jackpot amounts. This run has been an anomaly, growing at a much faster rate than anything in the last several years. It will be interesting to see if the increased pace continues.

                  This is exactly the point I was trying to make and the chart I provided supports your statements. Although the absolute dollar amount increases have slowed somewhat the last two drawings, this current pot is still way ahead of the billion dollar pot from last month with fewer drawings required to reach a similar dollar amount. I still believe it's on track to hit that billion dollar amount about the middle of March if there are no winners between now and then.

                    Guru101's avatar - rw6jhh
                    Indiana
                    United States
                    Member #48725
                    January 7, 2007
                    1953 Posts
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                    Posted: February 11, 2016, 5:41 pm - IP Logged

                    Here it is, just as I said $176M, which I'm going to win on Saturday.

                    Gonna win.Big Smile

                      Avatar
                      NY
                      United States
                      Member #23835
                      October 16, 2005
                      3474 Posts
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                      Posted: February 11, 2016, 11:07 pm - IP Logged

                      I never said it was the draw directly before this one.

                      I was referring to the draw of Jan 30 where the annuity jackpot was increased from $75 mil to $96 mil.

                      96 ÷ 75 = 1.28 hence the increase of 28%

                      112 ÷ 96 = 1.167  (16.7%)

                      136 ÷ 112 = 1.2143 (21.43%)

                      157 ÷ 136 = 1.1544 (15.44%)

                      176 ÷ 157 = 1.1210 (12.10%)

                      On the average, the past few drawing have increased between 12% -  21%

                      Using approx 15.33% as a median increase.... the annuity jackpot will reach $1 bil in approx 12 - 13 draws (if no winner) unless the jackpots increase by a higher percentage as the jackpot amount increases and the frenzy starts, then it will happen sooner.

                      You're fixating on the percentage increase and completely missing the point. A 15.44% increase from a jackpot of 136 isn't the same as a 15.44% increase from a jackpot of 40 or 500. You seem to think that the 15.44% increase from 136 to 157 is smaller than the 28% increase from 75 to 96, but they're both the exact same $21 million.

                      We know that, in general, sales are less than they were in the past, so the typical increase for any given jackpot tends to be less now than it was a year or two ago, no matter what reference you use to measure it. The problem is when you try to use percentage within the same run. It may be a reasonable tool for comparing increases for similar jackpot amounts from one run to the next, but it's pretty much useless within one run.

                      We also know that at some point sales increase dramatically. As a percentage of the previous jackpot the last rolls of the record PB were 58.23%, 79.38%, and 67.3%. Those are much bigger than the numbers for the earlier jackpots, but they're still small compared to the actual dollar amounts. The final increase of $638 million was just over 3038.5% of the $21 million increase we just saw from 136 to 157.

                        TheMeatman2005's avatar - lightening
                        Brooklyn, NY
                        United States
                        Member #169723
                        October 29, 2015
                        877 Posts
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                        Posted: February 11, 2016, 11:23 pm - IP Logged

                        You're fixating on the percentage increase and completely missing the point. A 15.44% increase from a jackpot of 136 isn't the same as a 15.44% increase from a jackpot of 40 or 500. You seem to think that the 15.44% increase from 136 to 157 is smaller than the 28% increase from 75 to 96, but they're both the exact same $21 million.

                        We know that, in general, sales are less than they were in the past, so the typical increase for any given jackpot tends to be less now than it was a year or two ago, no matter what reference you use to measure it. The problem is when you try to use percentage within the same run. It may be a reasonable tool for comparing increases for similar jackpot amounts from one run to the next, but it's pretty much useless within one run.

                        We also know that at some point sales increase dramatically. As a percentage of the previous jackpot the last rolls of the record PB were 58.23%, 79.38%, and 67.3%. Those are much bigger than the numbers for the earlier jackpots, but they're still small compared to the actual dollar amounts. The final increase of $638 million was just over 3038.5% of the $21 million increase we just saw from 136 to 157.

                        Valid points KY.

                        I use percentages to measure the growth of the pot.

                        I know that it starts out slow and speeds up when the frenzy starts.

                        See ya at the top!

                        The Meatman

                        “The quickest way to double your money is to fold it in half and put it in your back pocket.” Will Rogers

                        Winning happens in a flash, Like A Bolt Of Lightning!  Patriot

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                          WV
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                          March 2, 2011
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                          Posted: February 11, 2016, 11:30 pm - IP Logged

                          I think it might be awhile before we see another billion dollar JP. If it keeps rolling i did pick Mar 12 as the date. There have been 8 rollovers so far and the annuity is 176 mill with the cash value being 114 mill. This is growing much faster then the previous one did. It took 11 rollovers to get to 180 mill but the cash value was 112 mill. Part of this might be when the JP was reset to 40 mill there were sales of over 48 mill which is twice as big as it usually is when it resets to 40 mill. If it rolls 2 or 3 more times then you will see the % rising in tickets sales. I am sure for the last 2 drawings of the previous Jp where sales were 2billion 150 million that some people went overboard and spent much more then they should have and might not be able to spend the same amount this time if it would happen to get to 500 mill and rollover.

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                            NY
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                            October 16, 2005
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                            Posted: February 12, 2016, 1:50 am - IP Logged

                            "might not be able to spend the same amount this time if it would happen to get to 500 mill and rollover."

                            That could be one very interesting aspect of a consecutive jackpot of 500+. So far this run has been much faster than anyone should have expected, but I'm guessing that a lot of that is a carryover that won't continue. We're 3 drawings ahead of where we were last time (176 @ #9 vs 180 @ #12), but I'd guess that the  next few increases (assuming no winner) will be about the same as the increases for similar amounts in the last drawing. That would give us jackpots of about 198, 229, 256, 298 and 340ish.

                            After that I'd normally expect some big jumps, but perhaps a lot of the people who drove the last run by spending big bucks won't be doing that this time around. There have to be a lot of people who spend hundreds on the next to the last drawing and then did it again on the last one. Some of them probably also did it fr the 3rd to the last. I don't know that  many  would have learned a lesson, but a lot of people who spent $500 to $1000 in early January won't be able to do it again in early March even if they want to.

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                              Posted: February 12, 2016, 8:21 am - IP Logged

                              "I don't know that many would have learned a lesson, but a lot of people who spent $500 to $1000 in early January won't be able to do it again in early March even if they want to"

                              Perhaps. At the time I was comparing that drawing to the 500m+ pot from 2/15  and was suprised how much faster the billion dollar pot was climbing considering it was just after the holiday season and I didn't think people had that much money to go all in like they did. I was even more shocked  because of the increased odds from the new format combined with the $2.00 bet the PB showed it had the ability to withstand the large volume of sales that come after it crosses the 400m and then 500m mark. 

                              If we make it to early March without a winner it could be good timing as some people will be receiving their tax return refunds to "invest" in the pot. So I don't think there will be a cash flow issue to slow PB climb to a billion.