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Statistically Speaking - QP's and PP's

Topic closed. 1161 replies. Last post 6 years ago by Todd.

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July 10, 2010
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Posted: August 5, 2010, 3:43 am - IP Logged

God knows my litany trail of things i pursued in my life in my rear view mirror based on emotion,  so i know all to well the possible toll of chasing something i wasn't supposed to,  just because at that moment i "felt" it was right.

took awhile to get here,  with many "expenditures" along the way,  but i know the true value in chasing something that actually is true,  instead of something that "sounds right"

these are desperate times,  and as i have alluded to in other threads,  it's a ripe climate to "chase", and exchange common sense for desperation.

but man is there peace awarded to the person that picks common sense over "emotion",  and especially over "wishful thinking".

people think i am trying to rain on their parade,  and throw out the "negative vibe",  but if you knew me personally,  i am one of the most encouraging  people you would ever meet.

what i won't do,  and can't do,  is foster false hope,  in whatever form it masks itself.

do i "hope"  you and your wife win something?    OF COURSE

but,  if i can "influence"  someone to relax,  and not be so emotionally dependant on their lottery pursuits,  turning them away from "i have to",  to ........"only if i am meant to",   then i fulfilled my self designated job description in here.

the person that feathers out his life about the lottery in the vein of "if i am meant to",  will sleep like a newborn at night.

people that kill themselves time-wise and money wise chasing something to "make it happen",   that they have ZERO control over,  their sleeping habits are predictable

it dawned on me quite awhile ago,  that if i pick the truth over people, over emotion,  over something i precieve at that moment i have to have (or do),  over circumstances,  over opinion,  over pressure from others,  over whatever isn't truly right,  ..........................i know i will have a clear sail on to the end of my life.....

.....and i will experience rest in my soul

everything opposite of that is a constant wrestling match.

it's not like i am opposed to wrestling over something,   but it's gonna be something worth wrestling for,  or about.....

then i am all about it

judicial / fruitful pursuits are worth ALL the effort one can throw at it,  then walk away,  and if you are "meant to".

but dead end - never will "pursuits",   that's not worth lifting your pinkie for

all you have to do is apply some common sense,  and you will end up where you are supposed to be

VISIONididntalwayshave20/20DUDE

Visiondude,

I keep making the mistake of checking for new posts before shutting down and heading to bed.  The 9:30 stock market opening is getting too close!  We're on the same page.  Check some of my other posts and I think you'll agree. Will comment more tomorrow.

--Jimmy


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    Posted: August 5, 2010, 4:49 am - IP Logged

    VISIONDUDE

    i must have gotten you mixed up with someone else when i said that,  and i offer you my sincerest apologies for implicating you that way,  for something you never said.

    (Sorry but I cannot accept  your apology but no hard feelings though)

      Avatar
      Kentucky
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      February 14, 2006
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      Posted: August 5, 2010, 1:11 pm - IP Logged

      "I've been told in this thread that PP's are 4 times better than QP's but shouldn't that then be borne out by the results?"

      I'd question "4 times better" but using the 30/70 ratio, PPs are getting the same performance as slightly over twice as many QPs base on winning something. 1 ticket out of every 40 tickets or 2.5% should win something and on 8/03 there were 19,845,691 MM tickets sold and 459,542 or 2.3% of them won something. At best we can only guess 70% of the winning tickets were QPs but without any QP/PP prize amount ratio, we can say either out performed the other.

      "Or are we back to my other contention that PP players base success more on having all the numbers than on winning money?"

      Even when jackpots are high the average QP player probably spends $10 or less on their tickets. PP players probably spend about $5 or less but play the same combos in every drawing. Systems player are not going to get much coverage for $5 or $10 so they probably spend more.  Wheels are conditional so a systems player definitely has an advantage but only when the conditions are met.

      For the most part I believe systems players and birthday numbers players are betting on the results while QP players are buying chances to win hoping the results match their tickets.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
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        Posted: August 5, 2010, 1:30 pm - IP Logged

        "I've been told in this thread that PP's are 4 times better than QP's but shouldn't that then be borne out by the results?"

        I'd question "4 times better" but using the 30/70 ratio, PPs are getting the same performance as slightly over twice as many QPs base on winning something. 1 ticket out of every 40 tickets or 2.5% should win something and on 8/03 there were 19,845,691 MM tickets sold and 459,542 or 2.3% of them won something. At best we can only guess 70% of the winning tickets were QPs but without any QP/PP prize amount ratio, we can say either out performed the other.

        "Or are we back to my other contention that PP players base success more on having all the numbers than on winning money?"

        Even when jackpots are high the average QP player probably spends $10 or less on their tickets. PP players probably spend about $5 or less but play the same combos in every drawing. Systems player are not going to get much coverage for $5 or $10 so they probably spend more.  Wheels are conditional so a systems player definitely has an advantage but only when the conditions are met.

        For the most part I believe systems players and birthday numbers players are betting on the results while QP players are buying chances to win hoping the results match their tickets.

        1 ticket out of every 40 tickets or 2.5% should win something and on 8/03 there were 19,845,691 MM tickets sold and 459,542 or 2.3% of them won something.

        If the above is true and I believe it is then the predictors of MM who post on the prediction board with a consistent higher win percentage are doing better than QPs.

        I have noticed that as a group MM predictor don't do as well, it's only individual predictors that do better.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
          light on my feet
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          May 20, 2002
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          Posted: August 5, 2010, 2:31 pm - IP Logged

          VISIONDUDE

          i must have gotten you mixed up with someone else when i said that,  and i offer you my sincerest apologies for implicating you that way,  for something you never said.

          (Sorry but I cannot accept  your apology but no hard feelings though)

          wow.   pretty harsh.    says alot about how a man goes thru life,  when they pick "people" over "truth".

          you "cannot accept" my apology because we have a differing view in life?    that's pretty sad,  tech   Thud

           

           

           

          this part is directed at the board,  not you,  tech........

          this is a perfect example of why i sleep good at night, and a real life scenario addendum to what i said in a previous post about "doing the right thing"  no matter what

           

          you do the right thing, when the situation calls for it,  no matter "who" is involved,  and what the circumstances are.

          you do that,  you create the opposite of chaos

                      "i am .........."meant to"       

          P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                   until further notice,  it's  france everyday

            Avatar
            Kentucky
            United States
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            February 14, 2006
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            Posted: August 5, 2010, 3:28 pm - IP Logged

            ROFL"I asked a simple question "Can anyone honestly say they learned one thing from VD that could help them win a jackpot?". only you answered, and you predictively go off on a tangent having nothing what so ever to do with the question">

            well,  that's documented lie #1 for you,  because i just went back to my post on aug 2nd @ 3:38pm where i made a statement that was perfectly in line with the question you asked me

            when people are weak in their position,   the last resort is to purposefully lie about your opponent.

            your not exactly gaining credibility points,  stack

            ************************************************************************************************

            "I'll ask one more time, WHAT HAVE YOU TAUGHT ANYONE ON THIS THREAD THAT COULD HELP THEM WIN A JACKPOT?"

            you bet YOUR LIFE i have,   for 8 years running.

            everyday my sig is a reminder of what i am here to "teach"  per se

            i may be reaching a small minority,  but my effort is well worth handing someone the ability to pursue this avenue of life with peace and strength,   instead of the emotional toll that accompanies someone who chases things in life that they probably aren't ever going to have happen to them

             

            what i "do"  is called a "two-fer-one" deal.

            (1) i provide common sense levity to this board,  square in the midst of emotionally drivin "wishful thinking",  so people don't have to expend more money / time than necessary. 

            within that framework,  i "teach" people how to be more efficient about their chasing of a jackpot.

            what i do provide them is the knowledge that no one can gain themselves any "edge" more than the guy sitting next to them,  so they can relax about it.

            (2)  and the most important part of what i do in here.........is ..........that if you are "meant to,  you will.  if you are not,  you won't",  and there isn't one thing on this planet you or anyone else can do to "make it happen".

            that answer is emphatically YES

            ***********************************************************************************

            as i have already proven,  there is no one in residence at LP that can "help"  anyone win a JP either.

            not even a pick3 obviously.

            and certainly you can't do it either,  as we have witnessed you "talking about it",   but ZIP in the "helping your fellow man" game.

            ************************************************************************************

            "You can't even comprehend what a purchased QP is"

            i know.   

            there is completly no comparison to purchasing a lottery terminal generated QP bought with $1,  than a 1QP jacked off LP's RNG.     ROFL

            wishing something was true (that there is enough "differentiation"  to discount an apples to apples challenge) ,  is not going to make it true stack,   but oh now that you said it,  your stuck with that boat anchor

            *************************************************************************************

            "And you actually teach Drivers ED?

            Thanks for your contributions as a teacher to the dummying down of America".

            nice.   good comeback.  lol

            ok,  so now that we are fully ensconced in the "apples to apples" methodology of what's true in here,  lets apply that to your statement about me,  which i don't mind,  because when you stick your neck out like i do,  people are going to resort to cheapshotting their "opponent",  when everything else fails.  par for the course

            anyway,  lets apply the law of averages,  or we can apply who has done what,  in comparison to what you say.  either way

            by now,  after 42 pages,  you have yet to do anything but babble about your 'abilities', etc. 

            sans proof 

            all you have done  is make excuses "why you can't",  when obviously you can,  because RJoh did it.

            now me. 

            been teaching people how to drive for 5 1/2 years, and not one of my 3,000 plus "students" has ever ended up on the front page of the newspaper.

            not only that,  i have changed countless lives by how i encourage kids who have no solid foundation at home, etc.

            you can ask "them" if i am up for driving school instructor of the year in calif,  but ones things proveably sure between us "apples",  at least i do what i say i can

            you obviously can't

            "I'll ask one more time, WHAT HAVE YOU TAUGHT ANYONE ON THIS THREAD THAT COULD HELP THEM WIN A JACKPOT?"

            "you bet YOUR LIFE i have,   for 8 years running.everyday my sig is a reminder of what i am here to "teach"  per se"

            Since you've been teaching "how to win jackpots" on LP for 8 years, there must be many happy jackpot winners thanking you daily and I'm sure you can find one of them who will share their winning story with us and explain exactly how your "sig" helped them.

            "well,  that's documented lie #1 for you,  because i just went back to my post on aug 2nd @ 3:38pm where i made a statement that was perfectly in line with the question you asked me"

            And you answer was "if i helped one person move from desperation avenue,"

            How could I lie when you won't say for a fact you helped even one person?

            "as i have already proven,  there is no one in residence at LP that can "help"  anyone win a JP either."

            If nobody, as you said at LP can help anyone win a jackpot, why didn't you answer my question with a simple "no"?

            Of course that statement alone probably offends many LP members, but that shouldn't bother someone whose purpose and intent seems to be to offend as many members as possible.

            "(1) i provide common sense levity to this board,  square in the midst of emotionally drivin "wishful thinking",  so people don't have to expend more money / time than necessary."

            Oh, you've been providing levity? And I here I though it was just stupidity and for a while stopped responding to you out of pity.

            "i know.    there is completly no comparison to purchasing a lottery terminal generated QP bought with $1,  than a 1QP jacked off LP's RNG."

            Just take that winning combo you jacked off LP's RNG and try to cash it at a lottery terminal and you'll understand the comparison. And while you're helping people win jackpots, you might mention they need to fill out a play slip if they want to play that combo and that ticket will be entered as a PP on the lottery statistics. But I forgot, you can't comprehend the difference between a purchased QP and a purchased PP!

            "i know stack can comphrehend what he reads,  so why would he turn coat all of a sudden and make that statement,  when he obviously knows that systems players have been making the claim for 42 pages "they"  can outperform  QP's with their "systems"."

            and

            "ok,  i MORE than concede the fact that i am NOT the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes too all things matematical lottery related,"

            If you could stay focused on the topic that says 70% of the QP tickets win prizes and 30% PP tickets that includes system players win prizes you would understand Qps lose more than twice as much as PPs. Had you stayed focused during 8th grade math, you would easily understand why a 2 if 5 wheel covering all 56 wbs and using all 46 bonus numbers does exactly what its suppose to do; match 2 numbers in one combo and have the winning bonus ball.

            Do you make your students check under the hood to see if there is an engine before getting in the car?

            Most importantly if you could comprehend the difference between purchased QPs this topic is about, and RNGs combos that would become PP if played, you just might understand how foolish you are suggesting contests based on money you have no intentions of wagering and have no practical answer for the question asked in this topic.

            Show me the post and which poster claimed their system could out perform QPs?

            "you can ask "them" if i am up for driving school instructor of the year in calif,  but ones things proveably sure between us "apples",  at least i do what i say i can you obviously can't "

            It obviously it would be a waste of time to ask them if you're up for grammar, spelling, punctuation, sentence structure, and reading comprehension teacher of the year.


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              Posted: August 5, 2010, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

              Stack47,

              I'd really like to see you head over to my Poll in the Lottery Systems Thread named PA Daily Number (Evening).  I hate to reveal the correct answer with only 4 entries.  It's asking for the result of a Backtest of a simple Pick-3 System.  Along with the answer, I will be documenting each HIT with the date and winning number.  The next step will be to Backtest a more sophisticated system, and post the results.  If you hang in there long enough, you may get the answer to the questions you were trying to extract from VisionDude above.

              --Jimmy

                truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                Michigan
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                September 24, 2005
                1583 Posts
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                Posted: August 5, 2010, 7:44 pm - IP Logged

                Stack47,

                I'd really like to see you head over to my Poll in the Lottery Systems Thread named PA Daily Number (Evening).  I hate to reveal the correct answer with only 4 entries.  It's asking for the result of a Backtest of a simple Pick-3 System.  Along with the answer, I will be documenting each HIT with the date and winning number.  The next step will be to Backtest a more sophisticated system, and post the results.  If you hang in there long enough, you may get the answer to the questions you were trying to extract from VisionDude above.

                --Jimmy

                I'll make note of your "The PA Lottery Daily Number" thread and watch for responses.

                  visiondude's avatar - eye3logo
                  light on my feet
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                  Member #356
                  May 20, 2002
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                  Posted: August 5, 2010, 8:50 pm - IP Logged

                  "I'll ask one more time, WHAT HAVE YOU TAUGHT ANYONE ON THIS THREAD THAT COULD HELP THEM WIN A JACKPOT?"

                  "you bet YOUR LIFE i have,   for 8 years running.everyday my sig is a reminder of what i am here to "teach"  per se"

                  Since you've been teaching "how to win jackpots" on LP for 8 years, there must be many happy jackpot winners thanking you daily and I'm sure you can find one of them who will share their winning story with us and explain exactly how your "sig" helped them.

                  "well,  that's documented lie #1 for you,  because i just went back to my post on aug 2nd @ 3:38pm where i made a statement that was perfectly in line with the question you asked me"

                  And you answer was "if i helped one person move from desperation avenue,"

                  How could I lie when you won't say for a fact you helped even one person?

                  "as i have already proven,  there is no one in residence at LP that can "help"  anyone win a JP either."

                  If nobody, as you said at LP can help anyone win a jackpot, why didn't you answer my question with a simple "no"?

                  Of course that statement alone probably offends many LP members, but that shouldn't bother someone whose purpose and intent seems to be to offend as many members as possible.

                  "(1) i provide common sense levity to this board,  square in the midst of emotionally drivin "wishful thinking",  so people don't have to expend more money / time than necessary."

                  Oh, you've been providing levity? And I here I though it was just stupidity and for a while stopped responding to you out of pity.

                  "i know.    there is completly no comparison to purchasing a lottery terminal generated QP bought with $1,  than a 1QP jacked off LP's RNG."

                  Just take that winning combo you jacked off LP's RNG and try to cash it at a lottery terminal and you'll understand the comparison. And while you're helping people win jackpots, you might mention they need to fill out a play slip if they want to play that combo and that ticket will be entered as a PP on the lottery statistics. But I forgot, you can't comprehend the difference between a purchased QP and a purchased PP!

                  "i know stack can comphrehend what he reads,  so why would he turn coat all of a sudden and make that statement,  when he obviously knows that systems players have been making the claim for 42 pages "they"  can outperform  QP's with their "systems"."

                  and

                  "ok,  i MORE than concede the fact that i am NOT the sharpest knife in the drawer when it comes too all things matematical lottery related,"

                  If you could stay focused on the topic that says 70% of the QP tickets win prizes and 30% PP tickets that includes system players win prizes you would understand Qps lose more than twice as much as PPs. Had you stayed focused during 8th grade math, you would easily understand why a 2 if 5 wheel covering all 56 wbs and using all 46 bonus numbers does exactly what its suppose to do; match 2 numbers in one combo and have the winning bonus ball.

                  Do you make your students check under the hood to see if there is an engine before getting in the car?

                  Most importantly if you could comprehend the difference between purchased QPs this topic is about, and RNGs combos that would become PP if played, you just might understand how foolish you are suggesting contests based on money you have no intentions of wagering and have no practical answer for the question asked in this topic.

                  Show me the post and which poster claimed their system could out perform QPs?

                  "you can ask "them" if i am up for driving school instructor of the year in calif,  but ones things proveably sure between us "apples",  at least i do what i say i can you obviously can't "

                  It obviously it would be a waste of time to ask them if you're up for grammar, spelling, punctuation, sentence structure, and reading comprehension teacher of the year.

                  "It obviously it would be a waste of time to ask them if you're up for grammar, spelling, punctuation, sentence structure, and reading comprehension teacher of the year".

                   

                  i will be back later,  i have to go do something,  but i thought this would make your highlight reel in the meantime about your methodology of adding things up about a person,  vs what  they are saying.

                  i should so direct you to the multiple self depricating comments i have made myself about my "lack" of linguistic endeavors,  as that would demonstrate your lack of ability to come up with something valid against a persons position.

                  seen it many times,  the psuedo attack on my "grammar" (lol),  as if that lessens my "message".

                  yep,  your a mirror about what's "right".

                  i will handle your other spillages later.

                  i always do.  i always will

                  VISION

                              "i am .........."meant to"       

                  P.S.,  that RJoH  is a stand up guy.  thanks,  vision

                           until further notice,  it's  france everyday

                    truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
                    Michigan
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                    Posted: August 5, 2010, 9:31 pm - IP Logged

                    "It obviously it would be a waste of time to ask them if you're up for grammar, spelling, punctuation, sentence structure, and reading comprehension teacher of the year".

                     

                    i will be back later,  i have to go do something,  but i thought this would make your highlight reel in the meantime about your methodology of adding things up about a person,  vs what  they are saying.

                    i should so direct you to the multiple self depricating comments i have made myself about my "lack" of linguistic endeavors,  as that would demonstrate your lack of ability to come up with something valid against a persons position.

                    seen it many times,  the psuedo attack on my "grammar" (lol),  as if that lessens my "message".

                    yep,  your a mirror about what's "right".

                    i will handle your other spillages later.

                    i always do.  i always will

                    VISION

                    Good grief!  Psuedo attack?  It was just off topic, that's why it wasn't mentioned.  It is extremely hard to understand what you write sometimes.   Sentences start with an upper case letter... build from there, teacher.  It definitely lessens your message.  Big "grownup" words and long drawn out posts don't help either...Big Grin

                    Back to QP or SP. 

                    Original Post by visiondude

                    (1)  KY stated what he/she did on the last page about the "apples to apples"  type challenge,  so look there.

                    not trying to be "difficult",  but it be your responsibility to point me to any place in that thread that "proves" systems over anything, period.

                    you made the claim about that thread,  and i perused it,  but found no "proof". 

                    because you slid that thread out as proof,  it would be up to you to provide the "hyperlink",  etc.

                    RJ posted this link to Jade's thread originally, I didn't slide the thread out.

                    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/161865

                    Here is one of your quotes, visiondude, in this thread:

                    http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/217100/1705326

                    "but,  tapping into jade's impressive mathematical skills,  you can tell,  if there is one person at LP that has the "statistical skeleton" to be able to build a body of believability,  as far as being able to map out the possibility of a system working, by being repeatable,  it's  jade."

                    So, NOW you have an entire thread devoted to the topic by Jade and you totally refuse to accept what he says.  I don't think there is anything I can say to convince you otherwise.

                    For the pleasure of Coin Toss and maybe this is exactly what he means by citing the purchase of a single QP ticket vs self-picked tickets.

                    I would agree that if you are going to buy just one ticket, it doesn't make any difference if it is a QP or a SP.

                      ca-dreamin*'s avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
                      Chicago
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                      Posted: August 5, 2010, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

                      Ok Master 44 pages I got to read thru (oh GOD my grammer has gone dowhill) to understand what all's been said. Has anyone asked the lottery how they came up with their statistics?

                      I for one go to the school of I don't care what the statistics say....I prefer PPs. Sorry Master, I'll read this eventually and hope I didn't just make a fool of myself.

                      Just get me thru this so called life......

                        tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

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                        Posted: August 5, 2010, 9:58 pm - IP Logged

                        Ok Master 44 pages I got to read thru (oh GOD my grammer has gone dowhill) to understand what all's been said. Has anyone asked the lottery how they came up with their statistics?

                        I for one go to the school of I don't care what the statistics say....I prefer PPs. Sorry Master, I'll read this eventually and hope I didn't just make a fool of myself.

                        If your grammer has gone down hill move to Tn you'll fit right in...

                          ca-dreamin*'s avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
                          Chicago
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                          Posted: August 5, 2010, 10:03 pm - IP Logged

                          If your grammer has gone down hill move to Tn you'll fit right in...

                          And I learned it all right here in Chicago. I'm so used to hearing bad grammar I'm starting to speak it.

                          Just get me thru this so called life......

                            tiggs95's avatar - Lottery-036.jpg

                            United States
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                            Posted: August 5, 2010, 10:05 pm - IP Logged

                            And I learned it all right here in Chicago. I'm so used to hearing bad grammar I'm starting to speak it.

                            Yeah read some of ridge's post and practice..Good material..

                              ca-dreamin*'s avatar - Lottery-065.jpg
                              Chicago
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                              Posted: August 5, 2010, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

                              Yeah read some of ridge's post and practice..Good material..

                              How soon should I start wearing the overalls??? Oh yeah and I'll have to replace the oh my God's with YEEE-HAAAW LOL

                              Ridge is the Master after all! Ok but I'll stick to my Cokes! Noooo liquor for me. (Don't worry Master you don't speak anything like the people I work with)

                              Just get me thru this so called life......

                                 
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