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Why Do Mathematicians Consider The Lottery Random

Topic closed. 261 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Boney526.

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Posted: August 21, 2011, 9:27 pm - IP Logged

If 70% of winning tickets are QP's because 70% of tickets sold are QP's and

30% of winning tickets are Player Picks because 30% of tickets sold are player picks,

where's the advantage of one over the other?

 

They're both the same.

 

Now if Player Picks accounted for 40% of the winning tickets and QP's 60% based on the same sales ratio (30% to 70%), you could say one method was better than the other. But they don't and therefore you can't.

 

Playing your own numbers has the same winning percentage as Quick Picks if we go by the 70% in, 70% out - 30% in, 30% out standard.

I guess you missed the debate we had a few months ago with Cointoss. He claimed that you have a better chance of winning the JP If you bought QPs....ha ha haha ha....

Think about that for a second. The only reason there are more winners from QPs is because more people PLAY QPs....DUH!! I made the following extreme analogy back then to show coin why he was wrong. I wish I didn't have to because it was so obvious to me and many others who jumped in to show him also, but I had to show him this way. You have two swimming pools each filled with 1,000 fish. Then you have group A which has 70 people shooting at the fish in their pool, and the second group B you have 30 people shooting the fish in their pool. Which group do you think will have shot more fish in 5 minutes?


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    Posted: August 21, 2011, 9:32 pm - IP Logged

    Think about it this way. Imagine it was 99% QPs that were sold which were JP winners. Does this mean you have a better chance of winning If you buy a QP?....lol

    Even among the 99% of the QPs bought, there's only one or two winners, most are losers. Coin's convoluted logic was that because the majority of the winners came from QPs, somewhow, MAGICALLY your numbers would have a better chance of having all the winning numbers...LOL

      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
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      Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:13 pm - IP Logged

      Think about it this way. Imagine it was 99% QPs that were sold which were JP winners. Does this mean you have a better chance of winning If you buy a QP?....lol

      Even among the 99% of the QPs bought, there's only one or two winners, most are losers. Coin's convoluted logic was that because the majority of the winners came from QPs, somewhow, MAGICALLY your numbers would have a better chance of having all the winning numbers...LOL

      You say QP's account for 70% of winning tickets because 70% of tickets sold are QP's.

      I agree.

      So likewise, if 50% of tickets sold were QP's then they would win 50% of the time, right?

      That would leave the other 50% of tickets sold as Player Picks and they would account for the other 50% of winning tickets.

      They would both account for 50% of tickets sold and 50% of winning tickets.

      So where's the advantage of either one?

       

      I'm not saying one is better than the other, I'm saying based on their sales-percentage to wins-percentage ratios, they're the same.

      If one method accounted for 50% of tickets sold but 60% of winning tickets, then you could say it was better.


                                                   
                           
                                               

       

       

       

       

                                                                                                         

      "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                  --Edmund Burke

       

       

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        Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:23 pm - IP Logged

        If 70% of winning tickets are QP's because 70% of tickets sold are QP's and

        30% of winning tickets are Player Picks because 30% of tickets sold are player picks,

        where's the advantage of one over the other?

         

        They're both the same.

         

        Now if Player Picks accounted for 40% of the winning tickets and QP's 60% based on the same sales ratio (30% to 70%), you could say one method was better than the other. But they don't and therefore you can't.

         

        Playing your own numbers has the same winning percentage as Quick Picks if we go by the 70% in, 70% out - 30% in, 30% out standard.

        "If 70% of winning tickets are QP's because 70% of tickets sold are QP's and 30% of winning tickets are Player Picks because 30% of tickets sold are player picks, where's the advantage of one over the other?"

        To my knowledge, the only lottery that has any explanation is the Powerball site and their explanation is not very clear.

        "About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks."

        "About" could mean + or - 10% or more on both stats so it could be 80% of the purchases are QPs but 60% of the winners are player picks. The site shows how many secondary winners there are in each drawing but nowhere on the site does it break down winners between QPs and PPs. Without any real evidence, at best we can only assume that "winners" just applies to jackpot winners.

        http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_totalwinners.asp 

        "Playing your own numbers has the same winning percentage as Quick Picks if we go by the 70% in, 70% out - 30% in, 30% out standard."

        People play their numbers regardless of the size of the jackpot and I doubt a smart system player would ignore any jackpot. Besides the 5+0 prize is there every drawing. It's a fact the volume of play gets higher as the jackpot grows so for the amount of PP purchases to remain at 20% to 30% they would have buy 5 to 10 times as many PPs as the jackpot grows. You have mentioned playing PPs, do you fill out more cards with your own picks as the jackpot grows?

        Coin Toss has statistics on the Illinois Lil Lotto jackpot QP to PP ratio but nothing on overall sales or secondary prizes payouts. I wouldn't even want to guess at the QP to PP ratio in pick-3 and pick-4 games, but if the "Post Your Winning Tickets Here" is a gage, it certainly highly favors PPs.

        Until someone comes with an exact QP to PP ratio for each drawing it's impossible to answer your question with any accuracy.


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          Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:24 pm - IP Logged

          You say QP's account for 70% of winning tickets because 70% of tickets sold are QP's.

          I agree.

          So likewise, if 50% of tickets sold were QP's then they would win 50% of the time, right?

          That would leave the other 50% of tickets sold as Player Picks and they would account for the other 50% of winning tickets.

          They would both account for 50% of tickets sold and 50% of winning tickets.

          So where's the advantage of either one?

           

          I'm not saying one is better than the other, I'm saying based on their sales-percentage to wins-percentage ratios, they're the same.

          If one method accounted for 50% of tickets sold but 60% of winning tickets, then you could say it was better.

          I agree with you. But If I'm correct in what Jimmy was writing earlier in the previous page, unless I'm reading him wrong,..... below is what he wrote...

          "Namely, the overall percentage of PEOPLE BUYING QUICKPICK TICKETS very closely approximates the percentage of WINNERS HOLDING QUICKPICK TICKETS".........., http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/235600/2178475 

           

          He's saying exactly what coin was saying...meaning people who buy QPs have some unknown and mysterious advantage. And that's not the case.

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            Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:40 pm - IP Logged

            I have searched the web, visited a lot of sites. No where have I found an explanation. Is it because they consider the lottery machines free of interference?

            With lottery games if there is one definition of random than all the lotteries would use the same method. Tennessee assured their players their RNG was random but forgot to uncheck the "allow multiple digits" box in their pick-3 and pick-4 games for over a month. Most lotteries conduct pre-drawing tests but the tests are different for each state and so is the frequency for changing ping pong balls.

            On this site, Todd stated his RNG is much different state lottery terminal RNGs and since we know not all the lotteries use the same terminal manufacturers, we can't define random for QP distribution either.

            Is the PB drawing more, less, or as random as MM?

            Are the PB QPs more, less, or as random as MM?

              rdgrnr's avatar - walt
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              Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:51 pm - IP Logged

              I agree with you. But If I'm correct in what Jimmy was writing earlier in the previous page, unless I'm reading him wrong,..... below is what he wrote...

              "Namely, the overall percentage of PEOPLE BUYING QUICKPICK TICKETS very closely approximates the percentage of WINNERS HOLDING QUICKPICK TICKETS".........., http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/235600/2178475 

               

              He's saying exactly what coin was saying...meaning people who buy QPs have some unknown and mysterious advantage. And that's not the case.

              OK, I see we were talking about two different aspects, raw quantities versus percentage ratios.


                                                           
                                   
                                                       

               

               

               

               

                                                                                                                 

              "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                          --Edmund Burke

               

               

                CajunWin4's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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                Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:52 pm - IP Logged

                The only true random act is the very 1st  draw . At least 1 or 2 digits repeat them selfs from the last 3 or 4 draws .  Its does not matter if its RNG or Mechanical Draws ..

                  LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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                  Posted: August 21, 2011, 10:53 pm - IP Logged

                  What is random? Is it that which can't be predicted?

                  What is prediction? Saying what will happen at a given time or section of time sometime in the future and being right about it?

                  Is what will happen also saying that which will not happen at a given future time and would that also be taken as being a prediction of some kind?

                  It would of course be easier to guess or say what will not happen than to say that which will happen.

                  Can the future be predicted? If a person says that it will not rain tomorrow at a given particular place there is a much higher chance that that person will be right than if that person says that it will rain, of course it depends a lot on the particular place where this is predicted at.

                  On the sixties and on the seventies if a person said that a volkswagen beettle would soon come along down the street there would be a good chance that the person would be right, but nowdays the chance of that might be very low.

                  Here are some Midday Pa draws:

                  Sun, Aug 21, 2011    7-2-7
                  Sat, Aug 20, 2011    6-5-0
                  Fri, Aug 19, 2011    2-8-1
                  Thu, Aug 18, 2011    1-4-2
                  Wed, Aug 17, 2011    5-2-1
                  Tue, Aug 16, 2011    4-2-8
                  Mon, Aug 15, 2011    2-4-0
                  Mon, Aug 15, 2011    8-4-2Double Draw
                  Sun, Aug 14, 2011    0-4-7
                  Sat, Aug 13, 2011    3-8-6

                  The 727 = 16 Sum , 6 Last Digit, 7 Root, 5 Lowest To Highest Width, Mostly High, HLH, Mostly Odd, OEO.

                  If I said that another 727 would not come out next, I might have a higher chance of being right than if I said that a 727 would come out next.

                  If I said that a number having 5 or more of these patterns:

                  16 Sum , 6 Last Digit, 7 Root, 5 Lowest To Highest Width, Mostly High, HLH, Mostly Odd, OEO.

                  Would not come out next, I might have a better chance of being right than if I said that a number having 5 or more of those patterns will come out next.

                  ----------

                  If I said that all of the next 3 midday pick 3 numbers will not be HLH I might have a better chance of being right than if I said that all the next 3 midday numbers will be HLH.

                  By all of these I am trying to point out that there are limits to the predictability and the unpredictability of things or of what they call random.

                  Who would be stupid enough to bet that all of the next 3 midday pick 3 numbers will be 000?

                  Even most people would feel that the chances of that happening would be much lower than the chances of that not happening?

                  As unpredictable as a person would feel that random is, we know that the happening of some things are just not very likely, so there are more or less limits to the unpredictability of random events.

                  While the Moon can come down crashing on Earth at any time, we know that it is very unlikely that it will happen sometime tomorrow, very much unlikely yes, but not impossible.

                  -----------------------------

                  But when a person tries to "predict" too many factors of that which might not happen, the chances of failure compounds, the possible chances of failure of the factors might not just add-up, but maybe multiply, otherwise there might be a lot of people winning often.

                  That is why I always had such a hard time making right predictions, even so I did make a few very good predictions time ago, yes I did miss on a lot of predictions also, I remember.

                  BibleOnline  ParishesOnline  ChristianRadioOnline   MassOnline   Mass

                  "Ten measures of beauty descended to the world, nine were taken by Jerusalem."

                    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                    Posted: August 21, 2011, 11:03 pm - IP Logged

                    "If 70% of winning tickets are QP's because 70% of tickets sold are QP's and 30% of winning tickets are Player Picks because 30% of tickets sold are player picks, where's the advantage of one over the other?"

                    To my knowledge, the only lottery that has any explanation is the Powerball site and their explanation is not very clear.

                    "About 70% to 80% of purchases are computer picks. About 70% to 80% of winners are computer picks."

                    "About" could mean + or - 10% or more on both stats so it could be 80% of the purchases are QPs but 60% of the winners are player picks. The site shows how many secondary winners there are in each drawing but nowhere on the site does it break down winners between QPs and PPs. Without any real evidence, at best we can only assume that "winners" just applies to jackpot winners.

                    http://www.powerball.com/powerball/pb_totalwinners.asp 

                    "Playing your own numbers has the same winning percentage as Quick Picks if we go by the 70% in, 70% out - 30% in, 30% out standard."

                    People play their numbers regardless of the size of the jackpot and I doubt a smart system player would ignore any jackpot. Besides the 5+0 prize is there every drawing. It's a fact the volume of play gets higher as the jackpot grows so for the amount of PP purchases to remain at 20% to 30% they would have buy 5 to 10 times as many PPs as the jackpot grows. You have mentioned playing PPs, do you fill out more cards with your own picks as the jackpot grows?

                    Coin Toss has statistics on the Illinois Lil Lotto jackpot QP to PP ratio but nothing on overall sales or secondary prizes payouts. I wouldn't even want to guess at the QP to PP ratio in pick-3 and pick-4 games, but if the "Post Your Winning Tickets Here" is a gage, it certainly highly favors PPs.

                    Until someone comes with an exact QP to PP ratio for each drawing it's impossible to answer your question with any accuracy.

                    Yep, if PB's numbers are off, the whole thing don't make no never mind no how.


                                                                 
                                         
                                                             

                     

                     

                     

                     

                                                                                                                       

                    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

                     

                     

                      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
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                      Posted: August 21, 2011, 11:08 pm - IP Logged

                      Random is as random does.


                                                                   
                                           
                                                               

                       

                       

                       

                       

                                                                                                                         

                      "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                  --Edmund Burke

                       

                       

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                        Posted: August 21, 2011, 11:15 pm - IP Logged

                        Yep, if PB's numbers are off, the whole thing don't make no never mind no how.

                        Lantern explained it from another perception, "On the sixties and on the seventies if a person said that a volkswagen beettle would soon come along down the street there would be a good chance that the person would be right, but nowdays the chance of that might be very low."

                        The ratio is probably quite a bit different for $20 million jackpot than a $150 million plus jackpot.


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                          Posted: August 21, 2011, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

                          The only true random act is the very 1st  draw . At least 1 or 2 digits repeat them selfs from the last 3 or 4 draws .  Its does not matter if its RNG or Mechanical Draws ..

                          Right on !

                          At least someone here gets it...Thumbs Up


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                            Posted: August 21, 2011, 11:39 pm - IP Logged

                            I agree with you. But If I'm correct in what Jimmy was writing earlier in the previous page, unless I'm reading him wrong,..... below is what he wrote...

                            "Namely, the overall percentage of PEOPLE BUYING QUICKPICK TICKETS very closely approximates the percentage of WINNERS HOLDING QUICKPICK TICKETS".........., http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/235600/2178475 

                             

                            He's saying exactly what coin was saying...meaning people who buy QPs have some unknown and mysterious advantage. And that's not the case.

                            "He's saying exactly what coin was saying...meaning people who buy QPs have some unknown and mysterious advantage. And that's not the case."

                            No, I was not saying that.

                            What I said, in other words, was that the percentage of Tickets Purchased that were QuickPicks tends to be the same as the percentage of Winning Tickets that were QuickPicks!  What this implies is that there is no advantage to any particular method of selection.

                            No one has an advantage over anyone!


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                              Posted: August 21, 2011, 11:40 pm - IP Logged

                              What is random? Is it that which can't be predicted?

                              What is prediction? Saying what will happen at a given time or section of time sometime in the future and being right about it?

                              Is what will happen also saying that which will not happen at a given future time and would that also be taken as being a prediction of some kind?

                              It would of course be easier to guess or say what will not happen than to say that which will happen.

                              Can the future be predicted? If a person says that it will not rain tomorrow at a given particular place there is a much higher chance that that person will be right than if that person says that it will rain, of course it depends a lot on the particular place where this is predicted at.

                              On the sixties and on the seventies if a person said that a volkswagen beettle would soon come along down the street there would be a good chance that the person would be right, but nowdays the chance of that might be very low.

                              Here are some Midday Pa draws:

                              Sun, Aug 21, 2011    7-2-7
                              Sat, Aug 20, 2011    6-5-0
                              Fri, Aug 19, 2011    2-8-1
                              Thu, Aug 18, 2011    1-4-2
                              Wed, Aug 17, 2011    5-2-1
                              Tue, Aug 16, 2011    4-2-8
                              Mon, Aug 15, 2011    2-4-0
                              Mon, Aug 15, 2011    8-4-2Double Draw
                              Sun, Aug 14, 2011    0-4-7
                              Sat, Aug 13, 2011    3-8-6

                              The 727 = 16 Sum , 6 Last Digit, 7 Root, 5 Lowest To Highest Width, Mostly High, HLH, Mostly Odd, OEO.

                              If I said that another 727 would not come out next, I might have a higher chance of being right than if I said that a 727 would come out next.

                              If I said that a number having 5 or more of these patterns:

                              16 Sum , 6 Last Digit, 7 Root, 5 Lowest To Highest Width, Mostly High, HLH, Mostly Odd, OEO.

                              Would not come out next, I might have a better chance of being right than if I said that a number having 5 or more of those patterns will come out next.

                              ----------

                              If I said that all of the next 3 midday pick 3 numbers will not be HLH I might have a better chance of being right than if I said that all the next 3 midday numbers will be HLH.

                              By all of these I am trying to point out that there are limits to the predictability and the unpredictability of things or of what they call random.

                              Who would be stupid enough to bet that all of the next 3 midday pick 3 numbers will be 000?

                              Even most people would feel that the chances of that happening would be much lower than the chances of that not happening?

                              As unpredictable as a person would feel that random is, we know that the happening of some things are just not very likely, so there are more or less limits to the unpredictability of random events.

                              While the Moon can come down crashing on Earth at any time, we know that it is very unlikely that it will happen sometime tomorrow, very much unlikely yes, but not impossible.

                              -----------------------------

                              But when a person tries to "predict" too many factors of that which might not happen, the chances of failure compounds, the possible chances of failure of the factors might not just add-up, but maybe multiply, otherwise there might be a lot of people winning often.

                              That is why I always had such a hard time making right predictions, even so I did make a few very good predictions time ago, yes I did miss on a lot of predictions also, I remember.

                              Beautifully stated....

                                 
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