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Why Do Mathematicians Consider The Lottery Random

Topic closed. 261 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Boney526.

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LottoAce's avatar - WWI Flying_Ace.gif
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Posted: August 22, 2011, 9:16 am - IP Logged

"He's saying exactly what coin was saying...meaning people who buy QPs have some unknown and mysterious advantage. And that's not the case."

No, I was not saying that.

What I said, in other words, was that the percentage of Tickets Purchased that were QuickPicks tends to be the same as the percentage of Winning Tickets that were QuickPicks!  What this implies is that there is no advantage to any particular method of selection.

No one has an advantage over anyone!

well, I believe that most of the people picking their own numbers use B-Days, and the old "I got a hunch" methodology about the numbers they play.
if you were to strictly take the stats of players using systems that evaluate an individual lottery's High/Low Odd/Even bios or hit patterns, the percentages of winners from people playing there own numbers would
show that the players that study have the edge.

I'm not trying to convince anyone to play either way. just making an observation. You play your way;
and I'll play mine.

Good Luck All.

"know your limitations, but excede your expectations"

    jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
    Harbinger
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    Posted: August 22, 2011, 9:26 am - IP Logged

    I believe randomness is a physics issue,  mathematics quantifies and attempts to express physical processes in our "world".  For this very reason there still is no conclusive unifying theory.   It (the lottery) may appear random to us but it may not be. 

    Mathematicians may consider the lotteries (ball drawn) to be random because they can't express it mathematically.  Mathematicians/programmers may consider electronic computer generated lotteries random because of hubris,  no matter how they "create" or "introduce" the randomness factor/variable.

    Anyway,  the physical lottery is unpredictable and it appears random to mathematicians. 

    Don't ever forget.

    http://www.lotterypost.com/petition-true-drawings.aspx

    P.S. Lantern's examples are good.

      lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
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      Posted: August 22, 2011, 12:09 pm - IP Logged

      I will make a bet with all of so called QUCIK PIC  players...of course it is a bet I cant win because it will never happen...take powerball and mega millions to court and have the judge STOP THEM FROM TAMPERING WITH THE DRAWS and see how many PIC YOUR OWN NUMBERS winners start winning..

       

      go to powerballs website it even says so in the question section..I am going to to quote this from memory.

      Why are there more Quick pic winners than player pic winners?..answer given...ITS JUST A COINCIDENCE..well hell no its not a coincidence its because they are taking out all of those extra combinations and changing the future...you get those games to start having  ONE DRAW which is the way it should be..and see what happens to the amount of winners that pic their own numbers...it would increase because random would not be tampered with and allowed to run its natural course and all of those missing variables would BE showing ON TIME...

       

      JUST REMEMBER..you dont need to know all 5 numbers to win...IF YOU THE POSITION OF JUST 3 OF THE NUMBERS you can win powerball..the other 2 positions can be found by adding in the missing digits BETWEEN THE POSITIONS...

      POWERBALL AND MEGA MILLIONS IS NOT GOING TO ALLOW YOU TO GET A LOCK ON ONE POSITION LET ALONE 3 OF THEM...that is the purpose of the pretesting to mess up everything..DONT SIT THERE AND TELL ME THEY CANT have a draw and ROLL 5 NUMBERS OUT on one draw...

      WAIT SECURITY..SOMEONE MIGHT TAMPER AND CHEAT...yeah they are..but its not the public..its powerball and mega millions are the ones doing the cheating..if those machines and balls were kept in a room where the public can see them at all times with video cameras so the public would know noone has been in there tampering with the machines or the balls that would fly with the public just fine..not only that..I would bet there is probably no more than 3 people allowed anywhere near those balls so that means one of the 3 would go to prison for a long time..but then again..if they have video cameras on the balls and machines at all times they wouldnt be able to mess with anything..ONE DRAW LADIES AND GENTLEMAN... that is all they should be having is just ONE DRAW...their profits would drop like a rock if that happened...

      I still think they should be dragged into COURT and have their a$$ sued for tampering , stealing, misleading the public and probably several other charges also...REALLY THINK ABOUT IT..DO YOU honestly believe that every single AMERICAN IN THE UNITED STATES believes when they fill out their powerball ticket has ANY IDEA in the world that powerball is taking out all of those SO CALLED PRETEST DRAWS..hell..I never even knew myself anything about PRETEST DRAWS UNTIL I JOINED LP..I doubt very seriously the majority of the American public knows..

      FACT...powerball is running a 5:1 ratio...pure and simple..and you have to hit the 5TH DRAW...this effects alll system players that uses past data to try and get an edge..and oh yeah...with all the quick pic winners...those pretest draws WORKS PERFECTLY dont they?....1

      "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

        Number19King's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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        Posted: August 22, 2011, 12:14 pm - IP Logged

        That may be true but always remember that it helps your odds to come up with equations and formulas to make your odds better! like 80X...now X becomes the number you need and great lottery players can come up with winning combinations from hot and cold numbers such as myself and we win much more often,with out just a chance and raising our odds tremendously! Glad it doesnt work in our favor all the time unless we would shut down the lottery, but just like a ball player calculating his shot or Tiger on the greens..if we focus and use our formulas we allow math to assist and i hated math until i started playing the lottery!Wink

           

             "Persistence & Patience Pays off    When Applied with Wisdom"


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          Posted: August 22, 2011, 12:30 pm - IP Logged

          Number19King is correct!

          "Persistence and Patience Pays off Big!"

          Here's Proof!

          http://www.theonion.com/articles/lottery-winner-an-inspiration-to-all-who-play-the,1551/

            jarasan's avatar - new patrick.gif
            Harbinger
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            Posted: August 22, 2011, 12:54 pm - IP Logged

            I believe randomness is a physics issue,  mathematics quantifies and attempts to express physical processes in our "world".  For this very reason there still is no conclusive unifying theory.   It (the lottery) may appear random to us but it may not be. 

            Mathematicians may consider the lotteries (ball drawn) to be random because they can't express it mathematically.  Mathematicians/programmers may consider electronic computer generated lotteries random because of hubris,  no matter how they "create" or "introduce" the randomness factor/variable.

            Anyway,  the physical lottery is unpredictable and it appears random to mathematicians. 

            Don't ever forget.

            http://www.lotterypost.com/petition-true-drawings.aspx

            P.S. Lantern's examples are good.

            To clairfy, they can't express it mathematically to predict the outcome (correct answer) everytime.  But as a recent post points out... formulas,  approximations,  predictive software,  history,  educated guesses, and etcetera can get one in the ballpark more often than leaving it to a quick pig.

            Mathematics can be very precise for hard calculations low level whole numbers adding subtracting etc. but when you get up there to modeling prediction unknown variables wave functions series integral differentials all the answers are close but not exact.

            Which reminds me> Release the pigs! This MD. at its finest!

            I'd bet on 3!

              lotterybraker's avatar - pyramid
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              Posted: August 22, 2011, 1:56 pm - IP Logged

              Well I dont use MATH, I use random itself, past data etc...but you know the old saying

              " What ever blows your hair back" hahahaha

              "Attention all Mathematicians: Check your degree at the door because when it comes to whole numbers you are the Amateur"

                Raven62's avatar - binary
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                Posted: August 22, 2011, 3:31 pm - IP Logged

                I have searched the web, visited a lot of sites. No where have I found an explanation. Is it because they consider the lottery machines free of interference?

                Because they don't know Physics! (The science that deals with the properties of matter, energy, motion, force, and how they relate to each other)

                A mind once stretched by a new idea never returns to its original dimensions!

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                  Posted: August 22, 2011, 4:56 pm - IP Logged

                  But the past is irrelevant when you're throwing a ball around in the opposite direction of the wheel, and it eventually hits a random bump, causing it go to a random spot.

                  Just because you can't understand how the past affects the future doesn't mean that concept is false. Below is an excerpt from the Koycerin wagering method.

                  I just wish people's egos would take a vacation for a little while. Some people think they know everything there is to know and can't possibly learn anyhting new. Just because it's written in a University textbook doesn't mean that information can't become obsolete in the future.

                  The info below is not the whole picture, but a segment I chose to show here, so don't criticize it without reading the whol booklet.

                   

                  Below is a simplified example of pattern verification. It doesn't work everytime, but it comes close. We know that 1x4=4 and 2x4=8 and 3x4=12 and 5x4=20, but wait, we left out one, 4x4, suppose we don't don't know the answer to 4x4. We do know that whatever the answer is, that it's more than 3x4 and less than 5x4. The answer must be between 13 and 19. Rather than just make a guess, we will average the difference so we will be close to what the real answer might be. Add the 13 to the 19 and we get 32. We added two numbers so we divided the answer by two for the average of...guess what....16...Did you just see what we just did?.....We found the answer to 4x4 without knowing what the answer was.

                   

                  In the above example, something else should've been discovered. Do you see how past results foretold future results? And how the correct "Pattern" discovered the problem for which we had no answer?

                   

                  The above was a simplified example, but Koycerin's RND occurence, pattern verification, direction of pattern, and betting accordingly is slightly more complicated, but acheivable with practice.

                   

                  There are professional gamblers who make a living in Vegas and other gambling facilities looking for RNDs to occur and bet accordingly.

                  Actually, you are completely wrong.  Like totally.  Every single one of these systems has been tested against computer simulations totalling in the 100s of millions or billions of results, and guess what happens.

                   

                  Every single time, no matter what system is used, the amount of money LOST is almost equal to the House Edge of any pariticular game, multiplied by the total amount bet.  So it's not just me saying it because the odds say it's so, or because some texy book told me to.  I have studied Statistics, and it taught me nothing about Lottery, or gambling, unless you want to count HOW I would go about calculating the Variance, Standard Deviations of expected winnings, etc.  But other mathemticians have done the analysis, and I'm sorry - unless you want to argue that mathemetics is completely wrong - and that there's some undiscovered sort of unexplainable force that allows random events from the past to influence random events in the future, then you pretty much have to actually look up these studies, or just stop trying to say that they aren't correct.

                   

                  And you example is just nonsense completely, even if your math is right (I'll assume it is, I haven't checked) that has nothing to do with the past influencing the future.  1+1=2 does not come before 2+2=4 in time just as 4+4=16 does not happen after 2+2=4 in time.  That just makes no sense.  I can see a pattern, but it has nothing to do with past and present, and it certainly isn't even a random event.

                   

                  So basically you just posted a pattern of numbers and said the gambling results aren't random.

                   

                  Here I'll post something similar to what you said, and you tell me how ridiculous it sounds.  1 comes before , comes before 3, comes before 5 comes before 7 comes before 9 comes before 13.  But we're missing one.  Simple logic tells us it's an 11.  Slot machines aren't random because there was a pattern formed in my sequence, therefore, you should watch a slot machine until someone loses a bunch of times and you should win.

                  Do you see how ridulous that is?

                   

                  Proffessional Gamblers include people who play Poker, and occasionally Blacjack, the former of which should be obvious as to how it is possible to be a proffesional at, and in blackjack, things can be done to make it a positive expectation game, although probably only a couple of hundred people have the Bankroll, Discipline, and Skill to make that a reality.  The only other thing that allows that to make a profit is simply LUCK.  So to make that more clear, Blackjack can be turned into a game with a 1.05 percent return, if you can count cards, and play perfectly.  But that's very hard, and has huge fluctuations, so it will only show over time.  (Actually, I was reading an analysis of it which found that out of - I think 200 - hands played at a baseline 50 dollar bet, the expected return was that you'd profit 500 dollars, with a Standard Deviation of 14000 dollars.  That means 67 percent of players using this strategy will be between -13,500 and +14,500)  So without a giant bankroll to sustain that, it's only realistic for a few players to expect to make money playing blackjack.

                   

                  You can't really explain to someone what luck is if they think a random event comes down to some sort of skill, of number placement, or whatever, because when they do win, they'll attribute it their system, not the random event that occured.  I have a system which I thought did pretty well in the Pick 3, but then I realized I was just getting lucky, because in the LONG RUN I lost about half the money I played.  I did a little better because I won every day for a week one of the two draws box, but that was just ridulous dumb luck.  I don't think it was my system that got me those wins (even though it told me to play the numbers which happend to show) I think it was the fact that I got ballsy - played a bunch of numbers - and happened to hit with my 6-12 percent chance (10 or 20 6 way boxes) a few times in a row.

                    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                    Posted: August 22, 2011, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

                    I'd also like to point out that casinos love wagering systems.  Because they usually ask players to do something like bet more when they win, or when they lose.

                     

                    And either way they're betting more and the casinos win more.

                     

                    Let's use martingale as an example, on some non-specific even money game, that has a house edge.  Even though most players can make some money, there is somebody out there who gets an unlucky run and loses his whole bankroll.  Let's say we start at one betting unit, and double every time we lose, and the house adv. is just 1 percent, more than 5 times better than roulette.

                     

                    He would start at 1 betting unit, and have 500 in his bankroll.  1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128 and this is where it ends.  Actually, he could bet his last 245, but wouldn't break even if he did.  That means that it takes 7.95703 double ups to lose the entire bankroll.  Let's round it to 8, because someone with that bankroll could easily scrounge up another 11 bucks to try to get ahead by 1.

                     

                    So most people make money on this system, just one betting unit for every successful go.  The odds of somebody losing their bankroll are 1 divided by  (.505 to the power of 8) - 1 percent house edge - you win 49.5% they win 50.5% of the time.  This gives you 1 in 236.4117.  So about 1 in every 236.4117 attempts will fail, and lose the entire 511 dollar bankroll.  Every other attempt would be a +1.

                     

                    The math to understand why this happens has to do with average bets, and would get far more complicated, and just to put it simply, BECAUSE THE AVERAGE WAGER IS HIGHER USING A SYSTEM IS HIGHER, SO THE EXPECTED LOSS IS HIGHER.

                      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                      Posted: August 22, 2011, 5:13 pm - IP Logged

                      I agree with you. But If I'm correct in what Jimmy was writing earlier in the previous page, unless I'm reading him wrong,..... below is what he wrote...

                      "Namely, the overall percentage of PEOPLE BUYING QUICKPICK TICKETS very closely approximates the percentage of WINNERS HOLDING QUICKPICK TICKETS".........., http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/235600/2178475 

                       

                      He's saying exactly what coin was saying...meaning people who buy QPs have some unknown and mysterious advantage. And that's not the case.

                      Wait, what?

                       

                      Where did he say that?

                       

                      Maybe you don't really understand math at all, and therefore ignore the people who can use real math, and claim lottery math is real?

                        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                        Posted: August 22, 2011, 5:26 pm - IP Logged

                        What is random? Is it that which can't be predicted?

                        What is prediction? Saying what will happen at a given time or section of time sometime in the future and being right about it?

                        Is what will happen also saying that which will not happen at a given future time and would that also be taken as being a prediction of some kind?

                        It would of course be easier to guess or say what will not happen than to say that which will happen.

                        Can the future be predicted? If a person says that it will not rain tomorrow at a given particular place there is a much higher chance that that person will be right than if that person says that it will rain, of course it depends a lot on the particular place where this is predicted at.

                        On the sixties and on the seventies if a person said that a volkswagen beettle would soon come along down the street there would be a good chance that the person would be right, but nowdays the chance of that might be very low.

                        Here are some Midday Pa draws:

                        Sun, Aug 21, 2011    7-2-7
                        Sat, Aug 20, 2011    6-5-0
                        Fri, Aug 19, 2011    2-8-1
                        Thu, Aug 18, 2011    1-4-2
                        Wed, Aug 17, 2011    5-2-1
                        Tue, Aug 16, 2011    4-2-8
                        Mon, Aug 15, 2011    2-4-0
                        Mon, Aug 15, 2011    8-4-2Double Draw
                        Sun, Aug 14, 2011    0-4-7
                        Sat, Aug 13, 2011    3-8-6

                        The 727 = 16 Sum , 6 Last Digit, 7 Root, 5 Lowest To Highest Width, Mostly High, HLH, Mostly Odd, OEO.

                        If I said that another 727 would not come out next, I might have a higher chance of being right than if I said that a 727 would come out next.

                        If I said that a number having 5 or more of these patterns:

                        16 Sum , 6 Last Digit, 7 Root, 5 Lowest To Highest Width, Mostly High, HLH, Mostly Odd, OEO.

                        Would not come out next, I might have a better chance of being right than if I said that a number having 5 or more of those patterns will come out next.

                        ----------

                        If I said that all of the next 3 midday pick 3 numbers will not be HLH I might have a better chance of being right than if I said that all the next 3 midday numbers will be HLH.

                        By all of these I am trying to point out that there are limits to the predictability and the unpredictability of things or of what they call random.

                        Who would be stupid enough to bet that all of the next 3 midday pick 3 numbers will be 000?

                        Even most people would feel that the chances of that happening would be much lower than the chances of that not happening?

                        As unpredictable as a person would feel that random is, we know that the happening of some things are just not very likely, so there are more or less limits to the unpredictability of random events.

                        While the Moon can come down crashing on Earth at any time, we know that it is very unlikely that it will happen sometime tomorrow, very much unlikely yes, but not impossible.

                        -----------------------------

                        But when a person tries to "predict" too many factors of that which might not happen, the chances of failure compounds, the possible chances of failure of the factors might not just add-up, but maybe multiply, otherwise there might be a lot of people winning often.

                        That is why I always had such a hard time making right predictions, even so I did make a few very good predictions time ago, yes I did miss on a lot of predictions also, I remember.

                        "What is random? Is it that which can't be predicted?"

                        One of the definitions of random -

                        Governed by or involving equal chances for each item

                         

                        But they way I'd put it, an event that CANNOT be reliably predicted.

                          CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
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                          Posted: August 22, 2011, 6:19 pm - IP Logged

                          I will make a bet with all of so called QUCIK PIC  players...of course it is a bet I cant win because it will never happen...take powerball and mega millions to court and have the judge STOP THEM FROM TAMPERING WITH THE DRAWS and see how many PIC YOUR OWN NUMBERS winners start winning..

                           

                          go to powerballs website it even says so in the question section..I am going to to quote this from memory.

                          Why are there more Quick pic winners than player pic winners?..answer given...ITS JUST A COINCIDENCE..well hell no its not a coincidence its because they are taking out all of those extra combinations and changing the future...you get those games to start having  ONE DRAW which is the way it should be..and see what happens to the amount of winners that pic their own numbers...it would increase because random would not be tampered with and allowed to run its natural course and all of those missing variables would BE showing ON TIME...

                           

                          JUST REMEMBER..you dont need to know all 5 numbers to win...IF YOU THE POSITION OF JUST 3 OF THE NUMBERS you can win powerball..the other 2 positions can be found by adding in the missing digits BETWEEN THE POSITIONS...

                          POWERBALL AND MEGA MILLIONS IS NOT GOING TO ALLOW YOU TO GET A LOCK ON ONE POSITION LET ALONE 3 OF THEM...that is the purpose of the pretesting to mess up everything..DONT SIT THERE AND TELL ME THEY CANT have a draw and ROLL 5 NUMBERS OUT on one draw...

                          WAIT SECURITY..SOMEONE MIGHT TAMPER AND CHEAT...yeah they are..but its not the public..its powerball and mega millions are the ones doing the cheating..if those machines and balls were kept in a room where the public can see them at all times with video cameras so the public would know noone has been in there tampering with the machines or the balls that would fly with the public just fine..not only that..I would bet there is probably no more than 3 people allowed anywhere near those balls so that means one of the 3 would go to prison for a long time..but then again..if they have video cameras on the balls and machines at all times they wouldnt be able to mess with anything..ONE DRAW LADIES AND GENTLEMAN... that is all they should be having is just ONE DRAW...their profits would drop like a rock if that happened...

                          I still think they should be dragged into COURT and have their a$$ sued for tampering , stealing, misleading the public and probably several other charges also...REALLY THINK ABOUT IT..DO YOU honestly believe that every single AMERICAN IN THE UNITED STATES believes when they fill out their powerball ticket has ANY IDEA in the world that powerball is taking out all of those SO CALLED PRETEST DRAWS..hell..I never even knew myself anything about PRETEST DRAWS UNTIL I JOINED LP..I doubt very seriously the majority of the American public knows..

                          FACT...powerball is running a 5:1 ratio...pure and simple..and you have to hit the 5TH DRAW...this effects alll system players that uses past data to try and get an edge..and oh yeah...with all the quick pic winners...those pretest draws WORKS PERFECTLY dont they?....1

                          LB, I agree with you 100%. The 2 images each cover a 3 year time frame. Does anything standout? I think I got the number of draws the same, 5/1/01 to 5/1/04, am sure those are before pre-draw tests. I think G-Tech took over in Oct 04. Look at some of the averages. Look  how close the averages are to the math average before the pre-tests.

                           

                           

                           

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                            Harbinger
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                            Posted: August 22, 2011, 6:52 pm - IP Logged

                            Because they don't know Physics! (The science that deals with the properties of matter, energy, motion, force, and how they relate to each other)

                            Yes Raven.

                            It is a problem that can't be "answered" by any mathematical means because it CANNOT be quantitatively measured and is not repeatable.

                            For eg. a Powerball drawing one would to take at a minimum these into consideration, Newtonian effects (gravity variances included),  Atmospheric conditions, Time,  etc. for each ball and then the effects of each ball on each other,  on and on, there are other factors but this is a start.

                            "Mathematics" as our tiny little brains understand it ain't enough to exactly predict an outcome.

                            Card games and the lottery games are not the same.

                            Educated guesses from data mining and study are our best hope to get close to winning a jackpot.

                              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                              Posted: August 22, 2011, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                              Yes Raven.

                              It is a problem that can't be "answered" by any mathematical means because it CANNOT be quantitatively measured and is not repeatable.

                              For eg. a Powerball drawing one would to take at a minimum these into consideration, Newtonian effects (gravity variances included),  Atmospheric conditions, Time,  etc. for each ball and then the effects of each ball on each other,  on and on, there are other factors but this is a start.

                              "Mathematics" as our tiny little brains understand it ain't enough to exactly predict an outcome.

                              Card games and the lottery games are not the same.

                              Educated guesses from data mining and study are our best hope to get close to winning a jackpot.

                              Lol.

                               

                              Your best hope to winning a JP is to just buy a ticket, Self Pick or Quick Pick and hope you win.

                               

                              Actually - I could argue that the only reason self picks can be better is because you can make sure that you don't get a combination someone else was more likely to choose - like one where all the digits are under 31, or sequential or something.

                               

                              So go ahead, use your systems, I do sometimes, too.  Just for fun, to pick the numbers sometimes I'll use a system b/c they don't have a DISadvantage, and I don't always like getting QPs.

                                 
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