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Why Do Mathematicians Consider The Lottery Random

Topic closed. 261 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Boney526.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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Posted: August 28, 2011, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

I'm not lying. Belviee wahteevr yuo wnat.....

What is point of believing something that can't be explained or shown to be believable?

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
             Evil Looking       


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    Posted: August 28, 2011, 2:20 pm - IP Logged

    What is point of believing something that can't be explained or shown to be believable?

    I was referring to Ridge. I said let him believe what he wants to. I've already said I can't prove it to him, I can only tell him what the guy was doing. Take it or leave it. I know it to be true because the guy proved it to me by showing me the numbers he was playing ahead of the draw for about two weeks, and he came out way ahead.

    As long as I know it's true, that's what counts. I really don't care what anyone else believes. Ridge just likes to stir the pot anyways. Even If i was able to prove it to him, he'd shoot it down just for the entertainment. I know him too well already...lol

      rdgrnr's avatar - walt
      Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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      Posted: August 28, 2011, 3:14 pm - IP Logged

      I don't have any problem with mumblers, as long as they mumble the numbers into the email and send them to me. I wish I could speak that well If and when I reach 69.

      At any rate, why do you say Thanx a lot for looking out buddy when you never believed this in the first place, but now that there's a chance of all his info leaving for good, you want in on the action...lol

      Below is the PM he sent me, so judge for yourself. Remember I said h never ever posted even once?

      pic

      LOL, you're a regular riot, joker. This just gets better and better as you go along.

      Kinda like Nixon and the Watergate coverup.

      Naturally, when somebody finds a way to make millions of dollars playing the lottery, they always reach a certain point and quit.

      Then, they always want to throw away all their formulas and ideas and the way they play away after spending years of work discovering them. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. I can't understand why anyone wouldn't believe that for a second. Afterall, didn't Henry Ford throw away all the plans for his automobile after he finally built one? Didn't the Wright brothers throw away their dreams of airtravel after their first flight? Of course they did, they got tired of it! And of course nobody wanted to bother asking them for their secrets cuz Orville and Wilbur Wright mumbled too much! Their mumbling was just too annoying to deal with! LOL

      You're a real trip.  LOL


                                                   
                           
                                               

       

       

       

       

                                                                                                         

      "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                  --Edmund Burke

       

       


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        Posted: August 28, 2011, 4:13 pm - IP Logged

        LOL, you're a regular riot, joker. This just gets better and better as you go along.

        Kinda like Nixon and the Watergate coverup.

        Naturally, when somebody finds a way to make millions of dollars playing the lottery, they always reach a certain point and quit.

        Then, they always want to throw away all their formulas and ideas and the way they play away after spending years of work discovering them. Yeah, that makes perfect sense. I can't understand why anyone wouldn't believe that for a second. Afterall, didn't Henry Ford throw away all the plans for his automobile after he finally built one? Didn't the Wright brothers throw away their dreams of airtravel after their first flight? Of course they did, they got tired of it! And of course nobody wanted to bother asking them for their secrets cuz Orville and Wilbur Wright mumbled too much! Their mumbling was just too annoying to deal with! LOL

        You're a real trip.  LOL

        This is not your ordinary business. The money is in another country, and If you just keep making untold amounts of money from an offshore gambling place, certain officials may think it would be worth while coming after you. On the other hand, If you don't get too greedy, you can enjoy your money without looking over your shoulder every five minutes.

          rdgrnr's avatar - walt
          Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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          Posted: August 28, 2011, 4:55 pm - IP Logged

          This is not your ordinary business. The money is in another country, and If you just keep making untold amounts of money from an offshore gambling place, certain officials may think it would be worth while coming after you. On the other hand, If you don't get too greedy, you can enjoy your money without looking over your shoulder every five minutes.

          Oooooh, this is getting fascinating now with all the international intrigue.

          It's kind of like a riveting, edge-of-your-seat spy novel, except for being goofy. 

          I think you should actually write a mystery novel about it.

          You could call it: "The Mysterious Mumbling Millionaire of Mystery" 

          Or you could make it a self-help book and call it: "Mumble Your Way to Millions" Get one free! Just pay extra shipping and handling!

          Or how about a book of tongue twisters: "How Many Plumbers would Tumble over Stumblers to Plumb a Humble Mumbler's Lumber?" I know Nancy wouldHippy

          With your friend's mumbling genius and your ability to weave tall tales, there's no telling what you could accomplish! 

          Go for it joker!

          Live the dream!

          Go for the gusto!

          Sing that "We Are The Champions" song by Queen!

          Or something.


                                                       
                               
                                                   

           

           

           

           

                                                                                                             

          "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                      --Edmund Burke

           

           

            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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            Posted: August 28, 2011, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

             It's easier to come out far ahead over ten spins betting on one number than on one color, but the most likely event in either scenario is a loss.

             

            How do you figure? Betting on black or red is a 50/50 bet. Betting on a number, there is 1 in 38...What?

            Because in roulette, winning on red or black is actually a 18/38 bet.  And over ten spins, you are likely to be about even, probably behind 1 betting unit.  Over ten spins on a single number, you are more likely to be ahead because you've got a little under a 10/38 chance of being ahead, probably about 8/38 - since numbers can repeat.

             

            If you win at least one of the spins, you'll be ahead if you don't keep on playing.  If you bet on a single color, then you're going to be more likely to win SOME of your money back, but still be even or behind.  Obviously you could get 6 or more spins right, but it's more much more probable that you got 5 or less right.

             

            Which is why I said you're more likely to end up far ahead betting on a single number than betting on a single even money bet - that's what volatility describes.  There's a house edge, so don't mistake that for saying you're likely to come out ahead playing a single number in roulette.

             

            Over 3800 roulette spins, you should see 1800 red, 1800 blacks, and 200 greens - or close to it.

             

            Over those same 3800 spins, however, you'd see a bigger variation in specific numbers' frequencies, (even though they should be relatively close to the average, the less likely the probability of an event, the bigger the necessary sample to before it should pan out to about it's average frequency).  The range of frequencies would likely be between 70-130 shows each.  Although, I haven't run any specific simulation or seen any, so that's an estimate I just made up, but I know you know what I'm trying to explain.

             

            Over a lesser amount of spins, say 38 spins, a player betting on even money bets can expect to win about 18 spins and lose 20.  There'd be some variation from this, let's just say that you'll probably win between 10-26 spins out of the 38.  But a player betting on one number can expect to win between 0 and 3 times.  If we both made a flat even 10 dollar bet over twenty spins, me on a single digit, and you on an even money bet, say you won 26 of the spins - way more than average (that's a very small chance, like probably less than 1 percent), and I won 2, which isn't the most likely scenario, but a decent shot, then you'd have won 260-120=140 dollars profit, while I would have won 720-360=360.

             

            In this scenario, I was more likely to lose all of my spins than you were, but you more likely to end up behind.  This is because even though have to beat lower odds to come out ahead - you have to do it multiple times - you've got to beat the 18/38 odds more than half the time.  In the scenario I wrote out you'd really likely get about 17,18, or 19 right, and I'd most likely get 0 or 1, I've got a higher probability of coming out ahead than you and I've also got a higher probability of losing every spin.

             

            If I beat the 1/38 odds once within the first 10 spins, I'd come out ahead.  For 38 spins I'd have to win at least twice.  I'm more likely to get nothing, but also more likely to come out ahead, because if I win, I win a large amount.

              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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              Posted: August 28, 2011, 6:59 pm - IP Logged

               It's easier to come out far ahead over ten spins betting on one number than on one color, but the most likely event in either scenario is a loss.

               

              How do you figure? Betting on black or red is a 50/50 bet. Betting on a number, there is 1 in 38...What?

              Actually I have an easier way to describe this.

               

              If you were to get every spin right, which is probably not going to happen (about a 1 in 1758 chance), on even money bets, you'd end up winning 100 dollars betting flat.

               

              If I was to get 1 of the 10 spins right betting flat, which is more likely to occur than the event I descibed above - I'd end up winning 260 dollars.


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                Posted: August 28, 2011, 7:45 pm - IP Logged

                Because in roulette, winning on red or black is actually a 18/38 bet.  And over ten spins, you are likely to be about even, probably behind 1 betting unit.  Over ten spins on a single number, you are more likely to be ahead because you've got a little under a 10/38 chance of being ahead, probably about 8/38 - since numbers can repeat.

                 

                If you win at least one of the spins, you'll be ahead if you don't keep on playing.  If you bet on a single color, then you're going to be more likely to win SOME of your money back, but still be even or behind.  Obviously you could get 6 or more spins right, but it's more much more probable that you got 5 or less right.

                 

                Which is why I said you're more likely to end up far ahead betting on a single number than betting on a single even money bet - that's what volatility describes.  There's a house edge, so don't mistake that for saying you're likely to come out ahead playing a single number in roulette.

                 

                Over 3800 roulette spins, you should see 1800 red, 1800 blacks, and 200 greens - or close to it.

                 

                Over those same 3800 spins, however, you'd see a bigger variation in specific numbers' frequencies, (even though they should be relatively close to the average, the less likely the probability of an event, the bigger the necessary sample to before it should pan out to about it's average frequency).  The range of frequencies would likely be between 70-130 shows each.  Although, I haven't run any specific simulation or seen any, so that's an estimate I just made up, but I know you know what I'm trying to explain.

                 

                Over a lesser amount of spins, say 38 spins, a player betting on even money bets can expect to win about 18 spins and lose 20.  There'd be some variation from this, let's just say that you'll probably win between 10-26 spins out of the 38.  But a player betting on one number can expect to win between 0 and 3 times.  If we both made a flat even 10 dollar bet over twenty spins, me on a single digit, and you on an even money bet, say you won 26 of the spins - way more than average (that's a very small chance, like probably less than 1 percent), and I won 2, which isn't the most likely scenario, but a decent shot, then you'd have won 260-120=140 dollars profit, while I would have won 720-360=360.

                 

                In this scenario, I was more likely to lose all of my spins than you were, but you more likely to end up behind.  This is because even though have to beat lower odds to come out ahead - you have to do it multiple times - you've got to beat the 18/38 odds more than half the time.  In the scenario I wrote out you'd really likely get about 17,18, or 19 right, and I'd most likely get 0 or 1, I've got a higher probability of coming out ahead than you and I've also got a higher probability of losing every spin.

                 

                If I beat the 1/38 odds once within the first 10 spins, I'd come out ahead.  For 38 spins I'd have to win at least twice.  I'm more likely to get nothing, but also more likely to come out ahead, because if I win, I win a large amount.

                Wow, You're nuts.

                It doesn't require writing a book to answer a simple question.

                I'm not talking about a series of bets. One bet or 10 bets doesn't matter. A 50/50 bet as compared to 1/38 is a simple concept to understand, but you went on writing 10 paragraphs. I stopped  reading after the first paragraph.

                Now I know you've lost your mind. The black/red bet is by far the best bet to make out of all the options in Roulette.

                EDIT: Or high/low...any even money bet..

                  Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                  Posted: August 28, 2011, 7:52 pm - IP Logged

                  Actually I have an easier way to describe this.

                   

                  If you were to get every spin right, which is probably not going to happen (about a 1 in 1758 chance), on even money bets, you'd end up winning 100 dollars betting flat.

                   

                  If I was to get 1 of the 10 spins right betting flat, which is more likely to occur than the event I descibed above - I'd end up winning 260 dollars.

                  right there.

                   

                  It's an opinion, as to which is a better bet.  All bets except the 0,00,1,2,3 has the same House Advantage, but different volitilaty.  You've got a can win more betting on a single number, but you've got a much lower probability.

                   

                  It's not 50-50 chance it's an 18-20 chance, but it's close.  There is no "best bet" to make in roulette, I just prefer picking numbers.


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                    Posted: August 28, 2011, 7:58 pm - IP Logged

                    right there.

                     

                    It's an opinion, as to which is a better bet.  All bets except the 0,00,1,2,3 has the same House Advantage, but different volitilaty.  You've got a can win more betting on a single number, but you've got a much lower probability.

                     

                    It's not 50-50 chance it's an 18-20 chance, but it's close.  There is no "best bet" to make in roulette, I just prefer picking numbers.

                    Wrong there. You know something, you math gurus and your simulations have rotted your brains. Everyone has different strategies and doesn't always follow your simulations. And there's no freaking way you're going to take in account for every variable play out there in existence.

                    I've been studying roulette for years now, and even bought a system that soley relies on betting even bets to make the money because even bets have the best house edge.

                    The WORST bet is playing single numbers. Ask any seasoned roulette player. I have no idea where you get your info, but you are wrong buddy.


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                      Posted: August 28, 2011, 8:04 pm - IP Logged

                      OMG, I didn't even have to go to more than the first search on the net to show you how wrong you are. Don't take my word for it. Below is the first thing I found when I punched in "BEST BET IN ROULETTE". Now your going to say the experts are also wrong?

                       

                       

                       

                       

                      How to Make the Best Bet in Casino Roulette

                      Playing roulette can be very interesting to casino players owing to the variety of bets that they can make from the roulette table layout.playing roulette is easy. All a roulette player needs to do is to become familiar with the different betting styles and choose the number they like to play.

                      However, it is also vital for roulette players to identify the worse and best bets from the roulette table. Novice roulette players may not realize it but the various betting styles in roulette impose different odds for each bet.

                      First roulette players should know that there are two types of roulette  games namely the American and European roulette. European roulette provides players better odds of playing since it only involves 37 numbers and a single zero. This gives roulette players a house edge of 2.7%.

                      American roulette on the other hand has 38 numbers to play for on the roulette wheel with two zeros: 0 and 00. This doubles the house edge in roulette to 5.3%. Roulette players should therefore try to avoid playing the American roulette as much as possible.

                      One of the causes of a player's misdemeanor in roulette is playing for the worse bets. Being a game of chance, playing roulette does not provide a player sure winnings but the player can choose to make the best bet in order to extract improved luck for playing the game.

                      Roulette players should avoid betting on single numbers. Although the payout is big the player has the worse odds of winning from a single number bet. The bigger winnings offered for this type of bet is due to the fact that winning on single numbers can be very elusive and rare.

                      The bet for seven numbers also has the worst odds in roulette thus players should avoid making this type of bet. Most profitable outcome is extracted from bets with a payout of 1:1 which provide roulette players more frequent winnings.

                      Although the payout is smaller but roulette players can enjoy more winnings than when playing for the worse bets. Good bets in roulette are taken from playing even money and en prison game.

                      Even money bets consist of playing for even, odd, low, high, red and black numbers. These types of bets give a player about 45% of winning chances with better winning odds.

                      The roulette game with the en prison rule provides players the best odds in roulette giving the lowest house edge in roulette down to 1.35%.

                      Being able to understand the implication of the odds on each type of roulette bet can help a roulette player get the most benefits when playing the game of roulette.

                       

                       

                                                                                                       Bang Head                                     Thud

                        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                        Posted: August 28, 2011, 8:06 pm - IP Logged

                        Do the math it's very easy.  No simulation necessary.  All bets have the same house edge, except the one.  Volitality is not the same as house edge.

                         

                        Even money bets 18 chances to win 20 to lose.  House Edge is 5.26%

                        0.4736841.0000000.473684
                        0.526316-1.000000-0.526316
                        -0.052632

                         

                        Single number bet 1 chance to win 36, 37 to lose 1. House Edge is 5.26%

                        0.973684-1.000000-0.973684
                        0.02631635.0000000.921053
                        -0.052632

                         

                          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                          Posted: August 28, 2011, 8:11 pm - IP Logged

                          Oh yeah.

                           

                          If you're using an em prison rule, obcviously even money bets have a lower house edge.  They don't on a European table that doesn't use em prison.

                           

                          I was assuming it doesn't because most places in America don't use that rule.  But that's a different story, and I was talking about the volitality, which would still show a higher probability of a profit over a set number of spins, something around 10-15, no need for a computer simulation, you can do it in real life.

                           

                          Like I was trying to say, to each his own, you can bet how you want if you just avoid that one certain bet.  But to say that playing a single number is a worse bet is wrong, because it's not necesarilly worse.  It's a less likely win, but it can win you a lot more.  The only time the edge changes is with the em prison rule.


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                            Posted: August 28, 2011, 8:15 pm - IP Logged

                            Do the math it's very easy.  No simulation necessary.  All bets have the same house edge, except the one.  Volitality is not the same as house edge.

                             

                            Even money bets 18 chances to win 20 to lose.  House Edge is 5.26%

                            0.4736841.0000000.473684
                            0.526316-1.000000-0.526316
                            -0.052632

                             

                            Single number bet 1 chance to win 36, 37 to lose 1. House Edge is 5.26%

                            0.973684-1.000000-0.973684
                            0.02631635.0000000.921053
                            -0.052632

                             

                            What?

                            Where are you getting thos numbers for single numbers?

                            You have 36 numbers. Choose one number and you have a 1 in 36 chance of getting it right. with a 5% house edge. What part of that don't you understand?

                            You have BLACK and RED, you have a 50/50 chance, with a 5% house edge, whatpart of this don't you get?

                            Are you going to sit there and tell me you'd rather pick 1 in 36 instead of 50/50?

                            Wow man, I'm searching for words to describe what I'm seeing....Crazy

                              JAP69's avatar - alas
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                              Posted: August 28, 2011, 8:24 pm - IP Logged

                              Why are they random?

                              Because the outcome of a lottery drawing is not known until the completion of the drawing.

                              WHATT

                                 
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