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Why Do Mathematicians Consider The Lottery Random

Topic closed. 261 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Boney526.

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Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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Posted: August 28, 2011, 10:38 pm - IP Logged

Well you're right about one thing, that inside bets betting strategies are worthless.

 

Good Luck using your system in the Casino, I hope you didn't get Ripped Off!  LOL

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    Kentucky
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    Posted: August 28, 2011, 10:38 pm - IP Logged

    Stack, I barely know how to play craps, so I'm not really sure how to do take what you said in.

     

    But based on my understanding of the Don't Pass bet, you're forgetting to show the effect of getting a 2,3,12 or 7/11 on the come out roll - which makes the edge of the much small - but existant.  But I'm not really 100% sure what you're asking on that.  I also know most Casinos allow to to take the odds - and that lowers the edge significantly.

     

    It's not really possible for him to get more than fair odds, but that's because in order to win more than 1 bet's worth, he has to bet more than 1 bet.  So - he'll always get 90 percent of what the odds of him winning with that number, multiplied by the dollar amount he put on that number that night.

     

    Which is why I've said it's possible to win, but more possible to lose.  That's what volitality is in the gaming industry - it's a measure of variance, how far apart the wins and losses are in terms of what your bets are.  A more volatile game has more losers, but bigger wins when you do win, which means you can be ahead by placing a wager that wins fairly easily, but it's not really "easy" to win that bet, since there are many more outcomes possible.

     

    EG:  On a roulette wheel, a bet on a single number is far more volitile than a bet on Black or Red.  It's easier to come out far ahead over ten spins betting on one number than on one color, but the most likely event in either scenario is a loss.

    The Free Dictionary: existence definition: '''ob

    "But based on my understanding of the Don't Pass bet, you're forgetting to show the effect of getting a 2,3,12 or 7/11 on the come out roll - which makes the edge of the much small - but existant."

    Because of the large number of "no results", the odds on Craps actually change. The come out roll favors the Pass Line but the odds are 3 to 1 that a number will be rolled and when that happens the odds will favor the Don't.

    Any house edge is based on the odds favoring the house over a period of time and based on large number of results. If all the players on a table are Don't players and the shooters roll a series of "number, number, 7s", any house edge is irrelevant when the house loses every bet. And when the same series is rolled when all the players are Pass Line and Place betters, the house wins.

    "It's not really possible for him to get more than fair odds, but that's because in order to win more than 1 bet's worth, he has to bet more than 1 bet."

    He can't get fair odds just by betting 6500 numbers but with the potential to win 3, 4, or 5 bets using four other pools, but the odds still favor him on every bet. For him to win the amounts we're hearing about, he must be winning about 80% of his bets. Had we been told he's winning 80% of bets for 10 or 20 years I'd be just as skeptical knowing the overall edge against him. But we're talking about less than a year.

    "EG:  On a roulette wheel, a bet on a single number is far more volitile than a bet on Black or Red.  It's easier to come out far ahead over ten spins betting on one number than on one color, but the most likely event in either scenario is a loss."

    Glad you mentioned Roulette because that game has a slightly different definition of Random than lottery ball or RNG drawings. You can make a Roulette bet after the random process begins. It's possible to track the speed of the pill, the speed of the wheel, the bounce, and calculate in which area the ball will land and bet 8 or 10 numbers in that area. Not exactly easy, but possible.

    Interesting that I read in another thread where people are saying some lottery drawings are rigged because "numbers are repeating" and others are saying "numbers aren't being drawn" ignoring that mathematicians can calculate the probably of either happening.


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      Posted: August 28, 2011, 10:39 pm - IP Logged

      According to every casino I've ever seen, getting a single roulette number pays out 35 to 1, not 1 to 1.

       

      In your scenario, the payout doesn't correspond to risk, which it does in roulette.

       

      I wasn't referring to your system, or whatever, I was referring to the fact that you asked me if I would rather choose between a 50/50 chance or a 1/38 chance to win 100 dollars.  Well that doesn't realistically portray the fact that roulette wouldn't pay the same to both players.

       

      If I made a bet on 26, and you made a bet on black, and 26 came up, I'd win 350 dollars, plus my original bet.  You'd win 10 dollars, plus your original bet.  So you're giving me a ridiculous scenario which just isn't equivalent.

      I wanted to make it simple.

      But you'd be chasing numbers all day while I made money on outside bets and winning.

        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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        Posted: August 28, 2011, 10:42 pm - IP Logged

        I wanted to make it simple.

        But you'd be chasing numbers all day while I made money on outside bets and winning.

        Possibly.

         

        But I wouldn't play all day, cause chances are I'd lose then.  It's more my style to pick a few numbers, and play a few spins then stop.  If I win I win, if I don't I don't.


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          Posted: August 28, 2011, 10:44 pm - IP Logged

          Well you're right about one thing, that inside bets betting strategies are worthless.

           

          Good Luck using your system in the Casino, I hope you didn't get Ripped Off!  LOL

          I tried it on free online roulette games and I came out ahead everytime. But the true test will be at the casino.

            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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            Posted: August 28, 2011, 10:50 pm - IP Logged

            I tried it on free online roulette games and I came out ahead everytime. But the true test will be at the casino.

            Well that's the thing.  You've got a lot of confirmation bias, and (just so you're aware) a lot of free online roulette games are rigged in the players' favor.

             

            No matter what you're wagering method, the edge on each spin is 5.26%, the method you use can make it more likely for you to win something at the expense of a higher risk of losing it all.

             

            Or other wagering methods can do the opposite, or a lot of other changes to the short term probabilities, but they don't change the edge.  I'm sure that you know of Martingale - I just hope your system isn't similar to it, because it can be a real killer.  My friend once spun a mini roulette wheel against me for kicks - to try to make a dollar - and bet on black, doubling up until he'd make a profit of a buck, and we agreed if it got to 500 bucks he'd pay me.

             

            Well we got 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128 to 256 before the Black finally showed for him.  It doesn't seem that likely, but things like that do happen sometimes, but people selling wagering systems know that most people won't experience that - and so the myth goes on.

              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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              Posted: August 28, 2011, 10:50 pm - IP Logged

              Possibly.

               

              But I wouldn't play all day, cause chances are I'd lose then.  It's more my style to pick a few numbers, and play a few spins then stop.  If I win I win, if I don't I don't.

              "Glad you mentioned Roulette because that game has a slightly different definition of Random than lottery ball or RNG drawings. You can make a Roulette bet after the random process begins. It's possible to track the speed of the pill, the speed of the wheel, the bounce, and calculate in which area the ball will land and bet 8 or 10 numbers in that area. Not exactly easy, but possible.

              Interesting that I read in another thread where people are saying some lottery drawings are rigged because "numbers are repeating" and others are saying "numbers aren't being drawn" ignoring that mathematicians can calculate the probably of either happening."

               

              I had mentioned that before (that someone could potentially use physics to predict where the balls going to land, but it woudn't be easy or very reliable, and I'm glad you're bringing up that last part because a lot of people ignore the fact that mathemeticians do have the probabilities of nearly every event easily calculable.

               

              "He can't get fair odds just by betting 6500 numbers but with the potential to win 3, 4, or 5 bets using four other pools, but the odds still favor him on every bet. For him to win the amounts we're hearing about, he must be winning about 80% of his bets. Had we been told he's winning 80% of bets for 10 or 20 years I'd be just as skeptical knowing the overall edge against him. But we're talking about less than a year."

               

              Thank you - there's someone who understands what I'm saying.  That's all within 600ish draws, that's not impossible or even near it.  That's just not VERY likely, it's certainly possible.


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                Posted: August 28, 2011, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

                Well that's the thing.  You've got a lot of confirmation bias, and (just so you're aware) a lot of free online roulette games are rigged in the players' favor.

                 

                No matter what you're wagering method, the edge on each spin is 5.26%, the method you use can make it more likely for you to win something at the expense of a higher risk of losing it all.

                 

                Or other wagering methods can do the opposite, or a lot of other changes to the short term probabilities, but they don't change the edge.  I'm sure that you know of Martingale - I just hope your system isn't similar to it, because it can be a real killer.  My friend once spun a mini roulette wheel against me for kicks - to try to make a dollar - and bet on black, doubling up until he'd make a profit of a buck, and we agreed if it got to 500 bucks he'd pay me.

                 

                Well we got 1-2-4-8-16-32-64-128 to 256 before the Black finally showed for him.  It doesn't seem that likely, but things like that do happen sometimes, but people selling wagering systems know that most people won't experience that - and so the myth goes on.

                No, it's not the Martingale method. It's a template where you fill in the results of the game, and when and only the right condition is present, you bet accordingly. So you don't play with every spin. Sometimes you can go to 10 spins before making a bet. The only problem is that you have to find a table where there are a lot of players, hopefully choosing a casino that is very busy, guaranteed to have at least a few people playing at all times. This is important because if people start leaving the table, and you end up being the only person at the table, and it's not time for you to bet, they won't spin the wheel for no reason.....lol.... I'd have to sit there until someone comes along and plays.

                  truecritic's avatar - PirateTreasure
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                  Posted: August 28, 2011, 11:35 pm - IP Logged

                  @ Boney526

                  YOU are not 19 years old - unless you entered M.I.T. at age 16 or thereabouts!  You are too knowledgable about too many subjects, not to mention your articulate English/grammar.  So, WHO ARE YOU?

                  I have my suspicions.
                  I'm betting you won't post proof - a birth certificate.

                    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                    Posted: August 28, 2011, 11:58 pm - IP Logged

                    @ Boney526

                    YOU are not 19 years old - unless you entered M.I.T. at age 16 or thereabouts!  You are too knowledgable about too many subjects, not to mention your articulate English/grammar.  So, WHO ARE YOU?

                    I have my suspicions.
                    I'm betting you won't post proof - a birth certificate.

                    Uh-oh, looks like Tinkerbelle's in love.  Lover


                                                                 
                                         
                                                             

                     

                     

                     

                     

                                                                                                                       

                    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

                     

                     

                      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                      Posted: August 29, 2011, 1:31 am - IP Logged

                      Uh-oh, looks like Tinkerbelle's in love.  Lover

                      LMAO.

                       

                      Nah dude I'm 19 years old.  I guarantee I'm only really knowledgable on History, politics, economics and some statistics.  I'm pretty much clueless on almost anything else.

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                        Posted: August 29, 2011, 9:13 am - IP Logged

                        "Glad you mentioned Roulette because that game has a slightly different definition of Random than lottery ball or RNG drawings. You can make a Roulette bet after the random process begins. It's possible to track the speed of the pill, the speed of the wheel, the bounce, and calculate in which area the ball will land and bet 8 or 10 numbers in that area. Not exactly easy, but possible.

                        Interesting that I read in another thread where people are saying some lottery drawings are rigged because "numbers are repeating" and others are saying "numbers aren't being drawn" ignoring that mathematicians can calculate the probably of either happening."

                         

                        I had mentioned that before (that someone could potentially use physics to predict where the balls going to land, but it woudn't be easy or very reliable, and I'm glad you're bringing up that last part because a lot of people ignore the fact that mathemeticians do have the probabilities of nearly every event easily calculable.

                         

                        "He can't get fair odds just by betting 6500 numbers but with the potential to win 3, 4, or 5 bets using four other pools, but the odds still favor him on every bet. For him to win the amounts we're hearing about, he must be winning about 80% of his bets. Had we been told he's winning 80% of bets for 10 or 20 years I'd be just as skeptical knowing the overall edge against him. But we're talking about less than a year."

                         

                        Thank you - there's someone who understands what I'm saying.  That's all within 600ish draws, that's not impossible or even near it.  That's just not VERY likely, it's certainly possible.

                        "I had mentioned that before (that someone could potentially use physics to predict where the balls going to land, but it woudn't be easy or very reliable, and I'm glad you're bringing up that last part because a lot of people ignore the fact that mathemeticians do have the probabilities of nearly every event easily calculable."

                        A dealer told me she could hit the same number three times in a row and I watched her do it; had $20 on the number the third time. The number was 27 and on the fourth try the pill landed in 00 which is next to 27. Most Roulette games show the past numbers and players that know how the numbers are placed on the wheel can see that some dealers are consistently hitting only one or two sections of the wheel. You can get about 4 to 1 playing a 9 number section.

                        If you don't like all the elbows in your ribs making nine bets on a crowded table, another way to play sections is by putting 3 chips each on the 7 to 12 and 25 to 30 six-packs and 1 chip on the 0-00 split. You'll have two sections of the wheel with 7 consecutive numbers covered on each.

                        "That's all within 600ish draws, that's not impossible or even near it."

                        I don't have a problem with if it can be done, but I'm skeptical about collecting $1.1 million from an online bookie. It would take a very large volume of play before a bookie could hand out that much cash. $100,000, maybe but I'm more inclined to believe someone played their system on paper and that's how much they could have won by getting the online 9000 to 1 payout.

                          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                          Posted: August 29, 2011, 9:29 am - IP Logged

                          I don't really believe it.

                           

                          Hell for 600 draws he'd have to win about 1750 a draw, every draw, after his spendings to get that much.

                           

                          It's really not likely.  And your point's valid, too - how the hell's he going to go about withdrawing that huge amount of cash?

                            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                            Posted: August 29, 2011, 9:55 am - IP Logged

                            No, it's not the Martingale method. It's a template where you fill in the results of the game, and when and only the right condition is present, you bet accordingly. So you don't play with every spin. Sometimes you can go to 10 spins before making a bet. The only problem is that you have to find a table where there are a lot of players, hopefully choosing a casino that is very busy, guaranteed to have at least a few people playing at all times. This is important because if people start leaving the table, and you end up being the only person at the table, and it's not time for you to bet, they won't spin the wheel for no reason.....lol.... I'd have to sit there until someone comes along and plays.

                            I don't know if I should mention it....

                             

                            But that's what we call Gambler's Fallacy haha.

                             

                            On the upside, at least thereotically, you should lose less because you'll be playing slower.

                              JAP69's avatar - alas
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                              Posted: August 29, 2011, 10:37 am - IP Logged

                              Talking about roulettee brought back some memories of Sedertree and his discussions on roulettee.

                              Here is one of his post about his playing method.

                              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/62627

                              Oo'Ka

                                 
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