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Why Do Mathematicians Consider The Lottery Random

Topic closed. 261 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Boney526.

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Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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Posted: August 25, 2011, 8:10 pm - IP Logged

Right on the money. Also, what my friend does cannot be done with the P-3, only P-4. The reason being, the p-3 has turned over so many times now, that there are no remaining p-3 numbers that haven't shown up yet...straight, but the p-4 still has about 6,500 combos that haven't shown. It could've been done with the p-3 had he used his methods when the game first started 14 or so years ago, or whenever it was...You need to have more than 50% of the numbers not shown yet, preferrably 60% or more....

The math gurus may be correct with your everyday system on the market which runs dry and then starts up again, but loses in the long run. But my friend's concept is not only a unique one, but an ingenious one to boot. It doesn't fall under the same kind of "Dime a dozen" systems you find on the net. Also, the gurus would have to know exactly how many combos in the smaller pools are being played, and also factor in the quality of numbers generated by the programs used by my friend. Those combos are generated by a known system seller on the net. I can't mention his name because Todd knows this person and they're not exactly buddies.

But I believe the name of the specific program my friend uses is the "Slasher". I have the free trial for up to opening it up 3 times before you need a code. But I can't make heads or tails of it.....lol, at nay rate, my friend obviously knows how to use it and even told me a little about the basic workings when he uses it to reduce the pools down with the slasher.

I'm not going to debate with you anymore on the merits of systems and the randomness of the lottery - it's quite clear that we're not going to agree, but I have to respond to this one sentence.  It's not really a unique system - in fact it's one I've seen mentioned before.  Unless you're talking about generating the small pools and how he goes about doing that - in which case, it could very well be unique.  And you know my opinion that there's no such thing as a "quality number" just winning and losing numbers - but you won't take that opinion seriously anyway.

 

Just wanted to say, unless you're talking about how he generates the smaller pools - then it's not unique.  And obvisouly, IMO, not ingenious but I know you won't agree with that last part haha.

 

Mathemitically, that's not a sound reason why it would work on P3 and not P4, but that's ok.  Believe what you want, you've made it clear that you won't accept math as a basis for this type of stuff.

 

"But my friend's concept is not only a unique one, but an ingenious one to boot."


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    Posted: August 25, 2011, 8:20 pm - IP Logged

    You know, i just realized that theoretically, it can be done with the p-3. It's a little confusing to eplain, but it's really easy once you understand it. My friend said it can't be done with the p-3, but I'm gonna have to call him to see if that program can find the combos I'm about to reveal, which will equate those combos in the p-4 that haven't shown yet.. Here goes:

    In the p-4 game my frien uses, there are about 6,500 combos in straight form that haven't shown yet. In the p-3, the turnover rate for each combo that has the average show depending on the number of years the game has been in existence will be the "Zero" marker, as in the p-4. I know, confusing, but I will explain.

    Let's say just as an example, the California lottery ahs been around for 20 years. I'm sure it's abotu 25 or so, but we'll stick to a round number for now, 20 years...

    In those 20 years, a combos is expected to show around once every 1,000 draws. About every 3 years constitues roughly about 1,000 draws.  That's 20 years divided by 3 equals "SIX" 1,000 draw segements, meaning 123 should have shown about SIX times straight, just as an example, I know it could be slightly higher or lower, but we'll stick to SIX. So If my friend could find all the combos that have shown SIX times so far since the inception of the game, thos combos would reflect the "ZERO APPEARANCE" marker like the 6,500 in the p-4 that haven't shown yet. All we have to do is round up all the p-3 combos that have at least 6 hits straight, and play them all to show a "SEVENTH" time.....can you see where I'm going with this?......The SEVENTH time would be the "FIRST" time for the p-3 combos as in the first time for the reamining 6,500 in the p-4 that haven't shown yet. The only difference is that in the p-3 we're counting the layers up to the recent layer of turnovers....

    Then whatever method my friend uses to slash those remaing SEVENTH DUE p-3 combos into smaller pools, like he does with the p-4, we can have ourselves a mini version for the p-3. But it has to be played online for max profits.

      eddessaknight's avatar - nw paladin.jpg
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      Posted: August 25, 2011, 8:49 pm - IP Logged

      Hey Yes Indeed Joker, you know I remember the unorthodox & enigmatic Koycerin and his pattern quotation >>>>

      And hello CARBOB!

      All numbers have a history. It's called a pattern, or a trend. Numbers also cycle. The frequency of an individual number can be charted, hence helping the player anticipate it being drawn. Simply by reviewing the historical data we see that Numbers tend to repeat. A statistic that cannot be refuted. Numbers tend to come out with "other" numbers more than once/

      Evidence: The cycling of the seasons, the symmetry of crystals cell structure; disease epidemics; the wax and wane of caribou populations; sun spot cycles; the rise and fall of the Nile & moon phases, etc

      Everything in the world is full of signs. All events are coordinated. All things depend on each other, everything breathes together.

      "In all chaos there is a cosmos, in all disorder a secret order”.

      ~Dr Carl Gustav Jung, Swiss Analytical Psychiatrist

       

      Good Luck All,

      EddessaKnight  Note

       
      Page 9 of 9

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        Posted: August 25, 2011, 9:10 pm - IP Logged

        Hey Yes Indeed Joker, you know I remember the unorthodox & enigmatic Koycerin and his pattern quotation >>>>

        And hello CARBOB!

        All numbers have a history. It's called a pattern, or a trend. Numbers also cycle. The frequency of an individual number can be charted, hence helping the player anticipate it being drawn. Simply by reviewing the historical data we see that Numbers tend to repeat. A statistic that cannot be refuted. Numbers tend to come out with "other" numbers more than once/

        Evidence: The cycling of the seasons, the symmetry of crystals cell structure; disease epidemics; the wax and wane of caribou populations; sun spot cycles; the rise and fall of the Nile & moon phases, etc

        Everything in the world is full of signs. All events are coordinated. All things depend on each other, everything breathes together.

        "In all chaos there is a cosmos, in all disorder a secret order”.

        ~Dr Carl Gustav Jung, Swiss Analytical Psychiatrist

         

        Good Luck All,

        EddessaKnight  Note

         
        Page 9 of 9

        You, I and others here know this, but some here rely soley on math statistics. They live in a one dimensional plane.

        That's why I like my pair system that a friend gave me. The pairs repeat within a specified period. This happens all the time, not just one week. But it worked better when I was in Florida with ball draws. I think California, where I live now with computers, are doing some unorthodox programming. They must be changing the seed after every draw..lol

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          Posted: August 26, 2011, 12:36 am - IP Logged

          AYAYAYAYAY ( Lol I have no idea how to spell that)

           

          I'll try again.  I've never said it can't be done, in fact I said that it IS possible to win in the short term, especially in a game as Volitile as Pick 4.  However, you are MORE LIKELY to lose, because playing that many numbers will result in the house edge slowly wearing down your bankroll over time.  The average human timespan is long enough to witness thousands of draws, and if over 600 draws his friend experienced enough luck to win that much MY ADVICE WAS TO STOP WHILE AHEAD.

           

          "One did finally acknowledge the fact he is getting a 9000 to 1 return on each wager."

           

          - More appropriately each wager won.  And since he's playing 65 percent of the numbers, the return is less, unless he hits on one of the wagers he's played multiple times.  I'd think your friend would be better off not playing the 6500 and just playing the smaller pools, since that would result in a lower overall wager with a higher volitality, meaning it is MORE likely that he is going to win a large amount, but more likely that he will lose a smaller amount.

           

          But whatever - I should stop trying to explain myself because every time I do, I get completely misquoted.

           

          I LITERALLY NEVER SAID IT CANT BE DONE, I ACTUALLY SAID IT CAN.  I JUST SAID THAT ITS MORE LIKELY THAT IT WONT HAPPEN - THAT DOESNT MEAN ITS IMPOSSIBLE.

           

          You can have whatever opinion you want, a statiscal analysis would show that he has an equal chance of beating the odds or losing according to the odds - and the edge is applied because the payout 90 percent of odds, which is why you are more likely to lose than win, because you have to beat the odds by a few percent to be in the profitable margin.

          "Htime. owever, you are MORE LIKELY to lose, because playing that many numbers will result in the house edge slowly wearing down your bankroll over"

          Joker said he's playing 65% of the numbers not drawn in one pool and probably in a state that just started a pick-4 game. It's obvious that in a year or two that well will run dry and he'll do something different. You're talking about the house edge as if it's something nobody heard of it. 

          "I'd think your friend would be better off not playing the 6500 and just playing the smaller pools,"

          His method of using the other pools gives opportunities for multiple wins and probably the reason he shows a profit. His main 6500 number pool only has a 38% win margin so with that bet alone he has to win 3 out of 4 drawings to break even. Used alone, the 4 other pools might show similar results and it sounds like his system requires them to be used together.

          "You can have whatever opinion you want, a statiscal analysis would show that he has an equal chance of beating the odds or losing according to the odds - and the edge is applied because the payout 90 percent of odds, which is why you are more likely to lose than win, because you have to beat the odds by a few percent to be in the profitable margin."

          His system seems to be based on using odds that favor him within the 10% edge and since I haven't read any claims "it will work forever" I'll assume it's short term system.


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            Posted: August 26, 2011, 12:45 am - IP Logged

            "Htime. owever, you are MORE LIKELY to lose, because playing that many numbers will result in the house edge slowly wearing down your bankroll over"

            Joker said he's playing 65% of the numbers not drawn in one pool and probably in a state that just started a pick-4 game. It's obvious that in a year or two that well will run dry and he'll do something different. You're talking about the house edge as if it's something nobody heard of it. 

            "I'd think your friend would be better off not playing the 6500 and just playing the smaller pools,"

            His method of using the other pools gives opportunities for multiple wins and probably the reason he shows a profit. His main 6500 number pool only has a 38% win margin so with that bet alone he has to win 3 out of 4 drawings to break even. Used alone, the 4 other pools might show similar results and it sounds like his system requires them to be used together.

            "You can have whatever opinion you want, a statiscal analysis would show that he has an equal chance of beating the odds or losing according to the odds - and the edge is applied because the payout 90 percent of odds, which is why you are more likely to lose than win, because you have to beat the odds by a few percent to be in the profitable margin."

            His system seems to be based on using odds that favor him within the 10% edge and since I haven't read any claims "it will work forever" I'll assume it's short term system.

            I'm not playing anything. Just saying my friend is playing in a pool in a state that has one draw a day that is about 20 years old or so maybe more.

            The system will work until there's an unbalnce of combos that haven't shown yet, down the line many years, like a 30% of combos not shown yet, then it becomes more risky. But he has many many yeras before that happens. At one draw a day, it'll take many years before the tide shifts the other way.

              Jordans121's avatar - nw bookeep.jpg

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              Posted: August 26, 2011, 12:52 am - IP Logged

              I use many strategies. you simply find a pattern and continue it until it drops and go to another pattern. 

              "Many Strategies|One Game"

                Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                Posted: August 26, 2011, 1:24 am - IP Logged

                You, I and others here know this, but some here rely soley on math statistics. They live in a one dimensional plane.

                 

                Well statistics describes the probabilities of the outcomes of random events very well, such as gambling.  That's the point, we can't really describe what occurs to form random processes - just what the expected results will look like over time given than they are random.

                 

                Which brings me to a point - RNGs can be beaten - and statisticians wouldn't disagree, it's just not easy, since there is some algorithm running them.  But they also change the seed, so it could just end up becoming a game of guessing the seed.

                 

                If it's a state that uses an RNG - it actually seems more likely to me that the program is faulty, and your friend has found a fault in it, although that may not even be the case, statistically it's not impossible to get that lucky, it just seems that if it is an RNG state - than it's more likely to be faulty programming and he should continue to take advantage.


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                  Posted: August 26, 2011, 2:14 am - IP Logged

                  You, I and others here know this, but some here rely soley on math statistics. They live in a one dimensional plane.

                   

                  Well statistics describes the probabilities of the outcomes of random events very well, such as gambling.  That's the point, we can't really describe what occurs to form random processes - just what the expected results will look like over time given than they are random.

                   

                  Which brings me to a point - RNGs can be beaten - and statisticians wouldn't disagree, it's just not easy, since there is some algorithm running them.  But they also change the seed, so it could just end up becoming a game of guessing the seed.

                   

                  If it's a state that uses an RNG - it actually seems more likely to me that the program is faulty, and your friend has found a fault in it, although that may not even be the case, statistically it's not impossible to get that lucky, it just seems that if it is an RNG state - than it's more likely to be faulty programming and he should continue to take advantage.

                  Dude, you're only 19 years old. When I was 19 I thought I knew it all. That's just the way the world works. But that's ok, I can understand the enthusiasm you have. You're full of energy and think you've got it, but you don't. Many things happen while you grow older, you see things happen along the way and make decisions that seem right at the time, but as time passes, perspectives change, logic changes, layers of thought throughout the years create ideals. And then those ideals get warped, refined, drained, re-thought, redone in your mind, and reinvented. These stages of thoughts and ideas become more clear as time goes on. You'll look back in 20 years and agree with just about everything I'm writing now.

                  In reality there's nothing I can write that will change your mind, and I don't expect it. Only time will reveal the dimensions  that you lack.  Quantum physics and other reality definitions will come to you in time. Nothing is written in stone like I've said before. You'll eventually realize, through time that there are gray areas. I don't expect you to undersstand this, nor can I prove any of this.  Only through the grace of experience will you witness these things. I'm not special, and I'm not God's gift to humanity, but I feel compelled to explain all this to you because I was once there. I knew no wrong. No one understood me....they just didn't get it...and so on...believe me when I say these things to you...I'm not talking down to you, or trying to make you feel inferior because I'm just a simple person, but I feel I must warn you of these things.

                  All the math stats in the world won't give you a sixth sense. A sense of intuition and the inner voice. Most of the successful people in this world have used their 3rd eye unknowingly. It's up to you to take what I write seriously or just diminish it as some scribblings from a guy that's a has been. Take it how you want, but I know somewhere deep down inside, you will remember this 20 years from now.

                  You have a lot of potential, I can tell by your writings here. But don't let your enthisiasm override room for improvement. Always leave room for more learning. When I was in the Navy, after a while i got my first evaluation, and the officer called me into his office. He told me that I've done just about everything by the book, and wanted to give me a 4.0 grade which was the best grade...100%...but he said that he would give me a 3.8 because he knew that I needed room for advancement even though I earned a perfect score of 4.0. he knew that since I was only 18 at the time, there was always room for growth. Believe it or not, I was pissed because I knew I earned the 4.0, but as time progressed, I realized the officer was right. He wanted me to show others down the road that i can improve.   I was young and wet behind the ears so I didn't understand the big picture.

                  Anyway, i digress, but you get the point. Just remember this, if you don't remember anything else. Just when you think you've got it all figured out, there's something that you haven't heard or read about that will blow it out of the water. Maybe not here with this subject, but it will come I assure you, that's just the way it is. Even now to this day, I'm 47 years old and still I'm learning new things. it's a never ending cyle of learning.  Just when I thought I think I've seen every possible angle at this age, I'm astounded by someone or something that keeps surprising me. There's an old saying that says...Nothing is new under the sun, but boy let me tell you that can't be more wrong...lol...Just when you think there's nothing that can be said or done to improve an idea, someone comes along and turns your  world upside down. It amazes me everytime.

                  Be prepared for this and keep up the good work Boney....

                    rdgrnr's avatar - walt
                    Way back up in them dadgum hills, son!
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                    Posted: August 26, 2011, 1:21 pm - IP Logged

                    Dude, you're only 19 years old. When I was 19 I thought I knew it all. That's just the way the world works. But that's ok, I can understand the enthusiasm you have. You're full of energy and think you've got it, but you don't. Many things happen while you grow older, you see things happen along the way and make decisions that seem right at the time, but as time passes, perspectives change, logic changes, layers of thought throughout the years create ideals. And then those ideals get warped, refined, drained, re-thought, redone in your mind, and reinvented. These stages of thoughts and ideas become more clear as time goes on. You'll look back in 20 years and agree with just about everything I'm writing now.

                    In reality there's nothing I can write that will change your mind, and I don't expect it. Only time will reveal the dimensions  that you lack.  Quantum physics and other reality definitions will come to you in time. Nothing is written in stone like I've said before. You'll eventually realize, through time that there are gray areas. I don't expect you to undersstand this, nor can I prove any of this.  Only through the grace of experience will you witness these things. I'm not special, and I'm not God's gift to humanity, but I feel compelled to explain all this to you because I was once there. I knew no wrong. No one understood me....they just didn't get it...and so on...believe me when I say these things to you...I'm not talking down to you, or trying to make you feel inferior because I'm just a simple person, but I feel I must warn you of these things.

                    All the math stats in the world won't give you a sixth sense. A sense of intuition and the inner voice. Most of the successful people in this world have used their 3rd eye unknowingly. It's up to you to take what I write seriously or just diminish it as some scribblings from a guy that's a has been. Take it how you want, but I know somewhere deep down inside, you will remember this 20 years from now.

                    You have a lot of potential, I can tell by your writings here. But don't let your enthisiasm override room for improvement. Always leave room for more learning. When I was in the Navy, after a while i got my first evaluation, and the officer called me into his office. He told me that I've done just about everything by the book, and wanted to give me a 4.0 grade which was the best grade...100%...but he said that he would give me a 3.8 because he knew that I needed room for advancement even though I earned a perfect score of 4.0. he knew that since I was only 18 at the time, there was always room for growth. Believe it or not, I was pissed because I knew I earned the 4.0, but as time progressed, I realized the officer was right. He wanted me to show others down the road that i can improve.   I was young and wet behind the ears so I didn't understand the big picture.

                    Anyway, i digress, but you get the point. Just remember this, if you don't remember anything else. Just when you think you've got it all figured out, there's something that you haven't heard or read about that will blow it out of the water. Maybe not here with this subject, but it will come I assure you, that's just the way it is. Even now to this day, I'm 47 years old and still I'm learning new things. it's a never ending cyle of learning.  Just when I thought I think I've seen every possible angle at this age, I'm astounded by someone or something that keeps surprising me. There's an old saying that says...Nothing is new under the sun, but boy let me tell you that can't be more wrong...lol...Just when you think there's nothing that can be said or done to improve an idea, someone comes along and turns your  world upside down. It amazes me everytime.

                    Be prepared for this and keep up the good work Boney....

                    "Only through the grace of experience will you witness these things."

                     

                    You told me it was all that LSD you took for years while watching Head Bangers Ball or something.

                    So which is it?


                                                                 
                                         
                                                             

                     

                     

                     

                     

                                                                                                                       

                    "The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

                                                                                                                --Edmund Burke

                     

                     

                      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                      Posted: August 26, 2011, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

                      Dude, you're only 19 years old. When I was 19 I thought I knew it all. That's just the way the world works. But that's ok, I can understand the enthusiasm you have. You're full of energy and think you've got it, but you don't. Many things happen while you grow older, you see things happen along the way and make decisions that seem right at the time, but as time passes, perspectives change, logic changes, layers of thought throughout the years create ideals. And then those ideals get warped, refined, drained, re-thought, redone in your mind, and reinvented. These stages of thoughts and ideas become more clear as time goes on. You'll look back in 20 years and agree with just about everything I'm writing now.

                      In reality there's nothing I can write that will change your mind, and I don't expect it. Only time will reveal the dimensions  that you lack.  Quantum physics and other reality definitions will come to you in time. Nothing is written in stone like I've said before. You'll eventually realize, through time that there are gray areas. I don't expect you to undersstand this, nor can I prove any of this.  Only through the grace of experience will you witness these things. I'm not special, and I'm not God's gift to humanity, but I feel compelled to explain all this to you because I was once there. I knew no wrong. No one understood me....they just didn't get it...and so on...believe me when I say these things to you...I'm not talking down to you, or trying to make you feel inferior because I'm just a simple person, but I feel I must warn you of these things.

                      All the math stats in the world won't give you a sixth sense. A sense of intuition and the inner voice. Most of the successful people in this world have used their 3rd eye unknowingly. It's up to you to take what I write seriously or just diminish it as some scribblings from a guy that's a has been. Take it how you want, but I know somewhere deep down inside, you will remember this 20 years from now.

                      You have a lot of potential, I can tell by your writings here. But don't let your enthisiasm override room for improvement. Always leave room for more learning. When I was in the Navy, after a while i got my first evaluation, and the officer called me into his office. He told me that I've done just about everything by the book, and wanted to give me a 4.0 grade which was the best grade...100%...but he said that he would give me a 3.8 because he knew that I needed room for advancement even though I earned a perfect score of 4.0. he knew that since I was only 18 at the time, there was always room for growth. Believe it or not, I was pissed because I knew I earned the 4.0, but as time progressed, I realized the officer was right. He wanted me to show others down the road that i can improve.   I was young and wet behind the ears so I didn't understand the big picture.

                      Anyway, i digress, but you get the point. Just remember this, if you don't remember anything else. Just when you think you've got it all figured out, there's something that you haven't heard or read about that will blow it out of the water. Maybe not here with this subject, but it will come I assure you, that's just the way it is. Even now to this day, I'm 47 years old and still I'm learning new things. it's a never ending cyle of learning.  Just when I thought I think I've seen every possible angle at this age, I'm astounded by someone or something that keeps surprising me. There's an old saying that says...Nothing is new under the sun, but boy let me tell you that can't be more wrong...lol...Just when you think there's nothing that can be said or done to improve an idea, someone comes along and turns your  world upside down. It amazes me everytime.

                      Be prepared for this and keep up the good work Boney....

                      I don't know it all, in fact, I've stated that I have a rudementary understanding of Statistics, there are far more knowledgable people on this subject - and I'd trust them more than somebody, even my own, subjective experience.

                       

                      I don't disagree with what you're saying - as my opinions have changed plenty throughout my life's experiences, and not everybody takes 20 extra years to reach a solid conclusion on EVERYTHING, and this is just one of the things I've come to believe through study.  And I don't just mean textbook study - all the statistic analysis in the world is only there to show one thing, whether or not biases are present.

                       

                      I do agree with you on what you said here..... 

                      Anyway, i digress, but you get the point. Just remember this, if you don't remember anything else. Just when you think you've got it all figured out, there's something that you haven't heard or read about that will blow it out of the water. Maybe not here with this subject, but it will come I assure you, that's just the way it is.


                      Obviously there's a lot to learn, but until somebody can prove a that it possible to beat the randomness of the lottery consistently, then I'll continue to believe the experts that you discount, especially after all of my subjective experience has validated their claims.

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                        Kentucky
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                        Posted: August 26, 2011, 10:01 pm - IP Logged

                        I'm not playing anything. Just saying my friend is playing in a pool in a state that has one draw a day that is about 20 years old or so maybe more.

                        The system will work until there's an unbalnce of combos that haven't shown yet, down the line many years, like a 30% of combos not shown yet, then it becomes more risky. But he has many many yeras before that happens. At one draw a day, it'll take many years before the tide shifts the other way.

                        I knew you were talking about a friend and the "he's" I was referring to was your friend.

                        A year or so ago an LP member had an interesting 60/40 pick-3 betting method that showed lots of potential and it too was based on getting the online payoff odds. Your friend has a 65 to 35 edge on every bet he makes and your critics will say "overtime" he'll win 65% of his bets but the 10% edge will keep him from making a profit. I'd like to know where it's written a 65 to 35 edge every bet can't win 75% or even 100% of the drawings and must lose in 35% of the next 10,000 drawings.

                        One of your critics mentioned that RB28 in the PB game hadn't been drawn in over 270 drawings and even ran simulations to find the odds against that happening. The same math their using to say your friend's 65% edge can't beat the house edge would show that RB28 should be drawn once every 39 drawings and 10 times in 270. They're using simple eighth grade "find the average" math that shows each of the 1000 pick-3 straight numbers and each of the 10,000 pick-4 straight numbers should average 1 win in the next 1000 and 10,000 drawings.

                        But I guess it's the gambler's fallacy to believe in the next 1000 or 10,000 drawings many of the straight numbers will repeat and many won't be drawn.

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                          Kentucky
                          United States
                          Member #32652
                          February 14, 2006
                          7313 Posts
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                          Posted: August 26, 2011, 11:02 pm - IP Logged

                          I don't know it all, in fact, I've stated that I have a rudementary understanding of Statistics, there are far more knowledgable people on this subject - and I'd trust them more than somebody, even my own, subjective experience.

                           

                          I don't disagree with what you're saying - as my opinions have changed plenty throughout my life's experiences, and not everybody takes 20 extra years to reach a solid conclusion on EVERYTHING, and this is just one of the things I've come to believe through study.  And I don't just mean textbook study - all the statistic analysis in the world is only there to show one thing, whether or not biases are present.

                           

                          I do agree with you on what you said here..... 

                          Anyway, i digress, but you get the point. Just remember this, if you don't remember anything else. Just when you think you've got it all figured out, there's something that you haven't heard or read about that will blow it out of the water. Maybe not here with this subject, but it will come I assure you, that's just the way it is.


                          Obviously there's a lot to learn, but until somebody can prove a that it possible to beat the randomness of the lottery consistently, then I'll continue to believe the experts that you discount, especially after all of my subjective experience has validated their claims.

                          "but until somebody can prove a that it possible to beat the randomness of the lottery consistently, then I'll continue to believe the experts that you discount, especially after all of my subjective experience has validated their claims."

                          You do understand that the online 10% house edge is deducted from winning bets and has no effect on the odds of any bet winning or losing?

                          And if the online bookies have a sales volume of $5 million a year, they should expect to make a $500,000 profit and don't care how the money is distributed to the players?

                          Simple put if Joker's friend won $80,000, other players lost $88,000. How is he beating the odds (random) when the odds (by 65 to 35) favors him?


                            United States
                            Member #93947
                            July 10, 2010
                            2180 Posts
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                            Posted: August 26, 2011, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

                            I knew you were talking about a friend and the "he's" I was referring to was your friend.

                            A year or so ago an LP member had an interesting 60/40 pick-3 betting method that showed lots of potential and it too was based on getting the online payoff odds. Your friend has a 65 to 35 edge on every bet he makes and your critics will say "overtime" he'll win 65% of his bets but the 10% edge will keep him from making a profit. I'd like to know where it's written a 65 to 35 edge every bet can't win 75% or even 100% of the drawings and must lose in 35% of the next 10,000 drawings.

                            One of your critics mentioned that RB28 in the PB game hadn't been drawn in over 270 drawings and even ran simulations to find the odds against that happening. The same math their using to say your friend's 65% edge can't beat the house edge would show that RB28 should be drawn once every 39 drawings and 10 times in 270. They're using simple eighth grade "find the average" math that shows each of the 1000 pick-3 straight numbers and each of the 10,000 pick-4 straight numbers should average 1 win in the next 1000 and 10,000 drawings.

                            But I guess it's the gambler's fallacy to believe in the next 1000 or 10,000 drawings many of the straight numbers will repeat and many won't be drawn.

                            Stack47,

                            "The same math their using to say your friend's 65% edge can't beat the house edge would show that RB28 should be drawn once every 39 drawings and 10 times in 270."

                            You must have attended a very advanced school in the 8th grade because what I used to present the table and graph of the expected distribution of the possible number of hits of RB28 in 270 draws was not in my curriculum at that level.  Regardless of your 8th grade math education, you failed miserably to comprehend what I said in the discussion of my simulation, none of which resembles what you muttered above!

                            http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/229998/2182697

                            Again I must observe that the best explanation for why someone would make a foolish spectacle of themselves the way you do is if they have some vested interest in doing so.  It's either that or they really are clueless in the areas of probability and statistics.

                            --Jimmy4164

                            P.S.  I've read that there are people with a visual handicap that inhibits their ability to understand the kinds of charts I've been displaying.  Are you one of these people?  If you are, it would explain a lot, and you would have my sympathy.  Please investigate this possibility.


                              United States
                              Member #75358
                              June 1, 2009
                              5345 Posts
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                              Posted: August 27, 2011, 1:42 am - IP Logged

                              Stack47,

                              "The same math their using to say your friend's 65% edge can't beat the house edge would show that RB28 should be drawn once every 39 drawings and 10 times in 270."

                              You must have attended a very advanced school in the 8th grade because what I used to present the table and graph of the expected distribution of the possible number of hits of RB28 in 270 draws was not in my curriculum at that level.  Regardless of your 8th grade math education, you failed miserably to comprehend what I said in the discussion of my simulation, none of which resembles what you muttered above!

                              http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/229998/2182697

                              Again I must observe that the best explanation for why someone would make a foolish spectacle of themselves the way you do is if they have some vested interest in doing so.  It's either that or they really are clueless in the areas of probability and statistics.

                              --Jimmy4164

                              P.S.  I've read that there are people with a visual handicap that inhibits their ability to understand the kinds of charts I've been displaying.  Are you one of these people?  If you are, it would explain a lot, and you would have my sympathy.  Please investigate this possibility.

                              I don't want to speak for stack, but If I read him correctly he's saying that despite all the computer simulations that ran in the past, you can't dispute the simple fact that my friend does have a 65% edge in the main pool.

                               But what makes the system a winner in my opinion, in the long term, the smaller pools have the winning combo to compliment the main pool. The extra wins by the smaller pools keep my friend well ahead any catasrophic "Bad Luck" runs had my friend only played the main pool alone. Also, I doubt the simulations accounted for the higher payouts playing online. Like i said before, thos simulations were based on your typical lottery system for sale. This system is unlike any of those. None of the regular systems out there have a 65% edge, plus smaller pools to back it up. You'd have to do a stand alone simulation test tailored specifically around the details of this system to get accurate results. But I've already seen the results in a real life scenario with my friend's vast winnings. I don't need no stinkin simulation....lol

                                 
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