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Why Do Mathematicians Consider The Lottery Random

Topic closed. 261 replies. Last post 5 years ago by Boney526.

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Posted: August 23, 2011, 11:36 pm - IP Logged

WAIT WAIT WAIT.

 

Joker respond to this one, feel free to ignore anything else.

 

What examples did Jarasan give that I ignored, I thought I replied to all, or most of them.  He did respond to a few of my arguements - like when he said I have to forget about Newtonian gravity.  Not really a great response, but at least a response.

 

I thought I did respond to all of them, I don't think I ignored anything he wrote.

 

So please point out to me what I ignored that he said.  I'd be happy to give a response.

 

And I'll tell you what you've been ignoring.  Why do you feel as if this is a science, yet it's one where proof is unnessary.  You can just ignore current models because they're "just theories", and aren't complete?

 

Not being complete doesn't make them flat out wrong.  And for the record, Statistics is pretty complete.  Much more so - than say - the attempts to unify Quantum physics and General Relativity.

I didn't mean ignore, falsley explain away as a bad analogy.

    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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    Posted: August 23, 2011, 11:42 pm - IP Logged

    Wow Okay I'm done here.

     

    Actually one thing.  Stars aren't actually the same thing as the sun.  YOU HAVE TO PROVE ME WRONG I DON'T HAVE PROVE ANYTHING.

     

    The fact is - That the burden of proof is one way - that's why the majority believe what I believe.  That the Lottery is only "beatable" by luck.

     

    So now, I don't stand in the unproven.  Mathemticians that work for Slot machine developers and Casinos have already proven wrong EVERY SINGLE wagering system presented to them.  I don't know if they've done the method you're referring to, but the BURDEN OF PROOF IS ON YOU, and anyone else who believes in them, not on the people who's models have reliably worked for 100s of years.

     

    You can't just make something up, or read it somewhere, and say the burden of proof is on everyone else to prove that it's false.

     

     

    I really am done now.  If you believe the burden of proof is on me to prove thats some UNPROVEN system is false, than go ahead and believe in your wild fantasy.

     

    At least JARASAN said "I believe" that the lottery is beatable through a system.  Not that I have to prove it's not.

     

    BTW - if you explain the system to me, then I'll go ahead and see if the math is simple enough for me to disprove.  Like I said, I'm not a mathemtician, so chances are I won't be able to work out the calculation.

     

    But if you want somebody who CAN prove your system CORRECT or FALSE, I'll be happy to point you towards someone with the resources, and ability.  But something tells me you don't want a mathemetical test of your wagering system.

      LANTERN's avatar - kilroy 28_173_reasonably_small.jpg
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      Posted: August 23, 2011, 11:48 pm - IP Logged

      To me it is a funny thing that people are "Hung-Up" on the word "Random" and also on Math.

        To myself, there is no such thing as "Random" and Math is wrong, well Math is not wrong as it is just a word, but a lot of people are wrong.

      People talk about random and Math and try to prove that either the lottery games are random or not random.

      Maybe they should be trying to prove that there is such a thing as random.

      "Things" don't just happen for no reason at all, there are chemical and physics laws they are said to be universal laws, many things are unknown to us, but that doesn't mean that things "just happen" (As by chance), as with random there is no such thing as chance.

      If you push something it might move, if you are strong enough and due to friction, gravity and or whatever else, if anything else, it should stop sooner or later.

      Did that something move by "chance (Random)" or because you pushed it?

      Did it stop by chance or because of friction, gravity, because it hit something or because of some other force?

      Does it rain by chance or because of physical and or chemical laws and are those laws random?

      Does the sun and moon come out by chance or because of some physical laws and are those laws random?

      Do comets and meteors move here and or there by chance or because of physical laws and are those laws random?

      Does your car move by chance?

      Do you walk by chance?

      Will a baseball or football move by chance?

      Will the moon or the sun or the planets or the galaxy move by chance?

      Do earthquakes just happen by chance?

      Do hurricanes, tornadoes, etc happen by chance?

      I sure don't think so!

      Because there is no such thing as chance nor as random.

      "For every action there is a reaction"

      Things don't just happen (by chance nor by random-chance).

      Of course, with are not aware of the forces-actions that makes for many reactions, but that doesn't mean that there were not actions that started or made the reactions, the reactions didn't just happen by themselves (by chance) there were actions behind them that made them happen, even if we are not aware of those actions.

      Random, chance? Hardly!

      Is not that Math is wrong, it is that people are wrong!

      Maybe better talk about "Probability" instead of talking about "Random and Chance".

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        Posted: August 23, 2011, 11:52 pm - IP Logged

        Wow Okay I'm done here.

         

        Actually one thing.  Stars aren't actually the same thing as the sun.  YOU HAVE TO PROVE ME WRONG I DON'T HAVE PROVE ANYTHING.

         

        The fact is - That the burden of proof is one way - that's why the majority believe what I believe.  That the Lottery is only "beatable" by luck.

         

        So now, I don't stand in the unproven.  Mathemticians that work for Slot machine developers and Casinos have already proven wrong EVERY SINGLE wagering system presented to them.  I don't know if they've done the method you're referring to, but the BURDEN OF PROOF IS ON YOU, and anyone else who believes in them, not on the people who's models have reliably worked for 100s of years.

         

        You can't just make something up, or read it somewhere, and say the burden of proof is on everyone else to prove that it's false.

         

         

        I really am done now.  If you believe the burden of proof is on me to prove thats some UNPROVEN system is false, than go ahead and believe in your wild fantasy.

         

        At least JARASAN said "I believe" that the lottery is beatable through a system.  Not that I have to prove it's not.

         

        BTW - if you explain the system to me, then I'll go ahead and see if the math is simple enough for me to disprove.  Like I said, I'm not a mathemtician, so chances are I won't be able to work out the calculation.

         

        But if you want somebody who CAN prove your system CORRECT or FALSE, I'll be happy to point you towards someone with the resources, and ability.  But something tells me you don't want a mathemetical test of your wagering system.

        You're right, you are done. I should've stopped replying when I said I would. A brick wall has better things to say. You are pathetic.

          Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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          Posted: August 23, 2011, 11:54 pm - IP Logged

          Lol it's funny that you quoted me, calling me nuts, and then realized that it was a sarcastic comment comparing the Sun and Stars to your wagering system and Slot machines RNGs.

           

          I guess once you realized I was being sarcastic you realized that you sound nuts, saying that the burden of proof is on me to PROVE some unproven betting system wrong - and that if I don't have the ability to prove a system I know nothing about wrong - then I must be just as wrong as you.

           

          Like I said - present me with the wagering system and I'll see if the math is simple enough for me to work out.  If it isn't I'll gladly point you to someone who does have the capability.

            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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            Posted: August 23, 2011, 11:57 pm - IP Logged

            To me it is a funny thing that people are "Hung-Up" on the word "Random" and also on Math.

              To myself, there is no such thing as "Random" and Math is wrong, well Math is not wrong as it is just a word, but a lot of people are wrong.

            People talk about random and Math and try to prove that either the lottery games are random or not random.

            Maybe they should be trying to prove that there is such a thing as random.

            "Things" don't just happen for no reason at all, there are chemical and physics laws they are said to be universal laws, many things are unknown to us, but that doesn't mean that things "just happen" (As by chance), as with random there is no such thing as chance.

            If you push something it might move, if you are strong enough and due to friction, gravity and or whatever else, if anything else, it should stop sooner or later.

            Did that something move by "chance (Random)" or because you pushed it?

            Did it stop by chance or because of friction, gravity, because it hit something or because of some other force?

            Does it rain by chance or because of physical and or chemical laws and are those laws random?

            Does the sun and moon come out by chance or because of some physical laws and are those laws random?

            Do comets and meteors move here and or there by chance or because of physical laws and are those laws random?

            Does your car move by chance?

            Do you walk by chance?

            Will a baseball or football move by chance?

            Will the moon or the sun or the planets or the galaxy move by chance?

            Do earthquakes just happen by chance?

            Do hurricanes, tornadoes, etc happen by chance?

            I sure don't think so!

            Because there is no such thing as chance nor as random.

            "For every action there is a reaction"

            Things don't just happen (by chance nor by random-chance).

            Of course, with are not aware of the forces-actions that makes for many reactions, but that doesn't mean that there were not actions that started or made the reactions, the reactions didn't just happen by themselves (by chance) there were actions behind them that made them happen, even if we are not aware of those actions.

            Random, chance? Hardly!

            Is not that Math is wrong, it is that people are wrong!

            Maybe better talk about "Probability" instead of talking about "Random and Chance".

            This, I can agree with - even though I didn't read the whole thing.

             

            It's still mathemitcally random.  Unless you have some crazy mathemtical abilities (let's say you're a supercomputer) and you can observe the beginning of the draw occur before placing a bet, then for all intencive purposes, it is random.

             

            It's not random in the sense that something has caused the result to occur in the way it did - but that something was an undeterminable variable at the time of placing a bet.  In other words it was random until it occured.


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              Posted: August 24, 2011, 12:03 am - IP Logged

              Lol it's funny that you quoted me, calling me nuts, and then realized that it was a sarcastic comment comparing the Sun and Stars to your wagering system and Slot machines RNGs.

               

              I guess once you realized I was being sarcastic you realized that you sound nuts, saying that the burden of proof is on me to PROVE some unproven betting system wrong - and that if I don't have the ability to prove a system I know nothing about wrong - then I must be just as wrong as you.

               

              Like I said - present me with the wagering system and I'll see if the math is simple enough for me to work out.  If it isn't I'll gladly point you to someone who does have the capability.

              Listen you...I already gave you one simple example with Einstein and you still blabber on with your nonsensical ideas. If i go into a school and tell the teacher that 1+1 doesn't really equal 2, they'd kick me off the property. Yet they still teach kids that very thing everyday, even though it's wrong because it's the CONTEMPORARY school of thought.

              You just don't get it. You'never will, and I don't give a rat's ass.

              I'm done with you, and you should retire. I'm no longer responding to a dimwit like you. It's a waste of my time. So keep rambling on with your know it all BS, but guess what, I ain't buying it.

                Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                Posted: August 24, 2011, 12:12 am - IP Logged

                Okilee dokes.

                 

                Usually I hope somebody beats the long odds and wins a butt-ton of money like your friend who won supposedly 900,000 dollars.

                 

                In your case - I'm afraid it would just lead to confirmation bias - and likely a loss of more money.  So I'm hoping your systems all fail until you realize that they don't work and you stop playing, so that you save money in the long run.

                 

                I have no idea what you'r talking about, as I've never heard that Einstein quote, but I also provided one wjhere explained that nobody could possibly beat the odds.  Unlike Einstein I never said never - but that I'd require proof to believe it.

                 

                And some personal advice, don't be such an a**.  I didn't realize math and Statistics was a nonsenical idea, and I didn't realize I was a dimwit for studying any of them.  Apparently hundreds of years of studying by millions of people is just totally nonsenical.  Stop calling people names, you act like a child.

                 

                And I don't think that's the reason you'd be kicked out of the property if you went to a school.  I think it's because you're nothing but a BIG BABY who can't stand a basic debate without turning into name calling - without every responding to a my main point except to say you don't need proof you're right, I need proof you're wrong.

                 

                ILL REPEAT IT ONE MORE TIME EVEN THOUGH YOULL IGNORE IT.  Please explain to me your system and I will personally see if I can work out the math.  Unless you don't believe in math.


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                  Posted: August 24, 2011, 12:54 am - IP Logged

                  Okilee dokes.

                   

                  Usually I hope somebody beats the long odds and wins a butt-ton of money like your friend who won supposedly 900,000 dollars.

                   

                  In your case - I'm afraid it would just lead to confirmation bias - and likely a loss of more money.  So I'm hoping your systems all fail until you realize that they don't work and you stop playing, so that you save money in the long run.

                   

                  I have no idea what you'r talking about, as I've never heard that Einstein quote, but I also provided one wjhere explained that nobody could possibly beat the odds.  Unlike Einstein I never said never - but that I'd require proof to believe it.

                   

                  And some personal advice, don't be such an a**.  I didn't realize math and Statistics was a nonsenical idea, and I didn't realize I was a dimwit for studying any of them.  Apparently hundreds of years of studying by millions of people is just totally nonsenical.  Stop calling people names, you act like a child.

                   

                  And I don't think that's the reason you'd be kicked out of the property if you went to a school.  I think it's because you're nothing but a BIG BABY who can't stand a basic debate without turning into name calling - without every responding to a my main point except to say you don't need proof you're right, I need proof you're wrong.

                   

                  ILL REPEAT IT ONE MORE TIME EVEN THOUGH YOULL IGNORE IT.  Please explain to me your system and I will personally see if I can work out the math.  Unless you don't believe in math.

                  Yup, all your mathematicians are sitting with their thumbs up their asses while my friend has 900,000 sitting in a Canadian bank.  ...like I said, it's futile.

                  And no, I won't divulge in the method because all you'll do is shoot it down because it doesn't fit within your mathematical profile. Well let me give you a heads up, it has nothing to do with math per se, the way you mean it. It has  to do with recognizing RANDOM NUMBER DISPLACEMENT, a behavior that is universal. And  then how to see in which direction it's going, and bet accordingly depending on a few factors. You won't get it because you can't even get basic concepts that I've already presented. I may decide to send it to you in the future, but that all depends on your attitude. I don't mind sharing ideas like this with open minded folks, which I already have with others here on LP, but you must first show me that you have real objective interest, and don't blow smoke up my ass just to see the method.

                  OK, Give me your best shot and prove your case.


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                    Posted: August 24, 2011, 12:58 am - IP Logged

                    BTW, just to clear things up, my friend's method has nothing to do with the Koycerin method, I just threw that in to answer another point you made.

                      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                      Posted: August 24, 2011, 1:00 am - IP Logged

                      Nope, it's totally OK - I've got no objective interest in the method.  I was under the assumption that it was a wagering method, which I can already tell you would fail the test.  It's quite obviously not that simple.  So in that case, I can't prove it wrong but that still doesn't change the fact that it probably isn't correct.  Different strokes for different folks.

                       

                      I don't have much of an interest in doing what you're talking about.  I'd make the arguement that you're supposed friend has just gotten extradoniarily lucky, but I know you won't buy it.

                       

                      BTW the mathemiticians aren't sitting their with their thumbs up their asses, their making money by making the casinos money off people like you who think they can beat the odds.  And they love when someone does win big by chance, and they happened to be using a method which calls for big bets, because it just causes more people to bet using those methods, and on average they make more money.  More big winners, and more big losers = more profit.

                        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                        Posted: August 24, 2011, 1:01 am - IP Logged

                        BTW, just to clear things up, my friend's method has nothing to do with the Koycerin method, I just threw that in to answer another point you made.

                        My only question is that if you honestly believe in your friends method, why aren't you using it make buttloads of money?


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                          Posted: August 24, 2011, 1:04 am - IP Logged

                          My only question is that if you honestly believe in your friends method, why aren't you using it make buttloads of money?

                          You need a good bankroll to acheive what he's doing. To be on the safe side, I'd guess at least 6 to 10 grand. This person spend 3,000 when he decides to play a draw. But I'm slowly working on that problem.


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                            Posted: August 24, 2011, 1:10 am - IP Logged

                            This person plays online. This person plays all the remaining p-4 numbers that haven't hit straight in a certain state. That's about 6,500 combos at 25 cents a piece, then this person plays additional smaller pools that most of the time contain the winning number in most of the 3 or 4 pools, which means this person wins multiple times when this person wins. This person has lost too, no one can win everytime, but the wins obviously have outnumbered the losses. In fact, just about a month and a half ago this person lost 20,000 bucks, but it's rare. This is why one must have a nice bankroll to acheive what this person does.

                              Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                              Posted: August 24, 2011, 1:24 am - IP Logged

                              This person plays online. This person plays all the remaining p-4 numbers that haven't hit straight in a certain state. That's about 6,500 combos at 25 cents a piece, then this person plays additional smaller pools that most of the time contain the winning number in most of the 3 or 4 pools, which means this person wins multiple times when this person wins. This person has lost too, no one can win everytime, but the wins obviously have outnumbered the losses. In fact, just about a month and a half ago this person lost 20,000 bucks, but it's rare. This is why one must have a nice bankroll to acheive what this person does.

                              Making bets that big, and keep in mind this is a completely rough estimate without doing any math - in a game like Pick 4 with a huge volitiality rate, your friend is just within the top 15-1 percent of the statiscal expected rate.  You can believe what you want, but that's what a statiscal analysis of such a method would show.  You could potentially change these probabilities with a wagering method, but it would also either raise or lower the risk of ruin.

                               

                              It's definetely possible to make money on the Pick 4 online, it's just that it's more possible to lose.

                               

                              If you want to believe there are other ways to beat the randomness of Pick 3/4 or anything else there's not much I can do about it.  The only reason I'm trying to explain my view to you is so that hopefully see that such systems lead to a higher expected loss.  If you don't agree - then there's not much I can do about it.

                               

                              Honestly, I play on online roulette simulators for fun, and sometimes see the value in certain aspects of either - strategic placement of numbers (which I really think just has to do with how the human mind works, and that there is no such thing) and betting systems.  I obvisouly don't want to talk much about the first, because I believe it's more of a superstition, but the second is a risk/reward system where you're more likely to win some, and more likely to lose a lot.

                               

                              But what I will say about number placement/trying to beat the lottery, Pick3/4 is that if you do win, it will confirm your suspicions that it's possible to beat, EVEN IF IT ISN'T, and it is all luck.  The biggest confirmation of this suspicion is the fact that in every case where a casino has been systematically beaten over huge periods of time - the casino or industry has determined the bias that lead to them being beaten, be it finding a roulette wheels bias, or counting cards, or card shuffling.

                                 
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