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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: June 6, 2012, 5:16 am - IP Logged

RL


That's good so I guess now it's my turn.  I want to give some too but I want to have some first.

    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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    Posted: June 6, 2012, 5:18 am - IP Logged

    I just ran a few calculations on playing all the 5 odd and 5 even combinations for every mega ball drawing.

    705 * (98,280 *2) = (705 * 196560) =  $138,574,800

    Average jackpot for mega millions = $105,000,000 

    there have been 26 drawings where all 5 numbers were all odd or all even

    26 * 105,000,000 =2,730,000,000

    $2,730,000,000 - $138,547,800 = $2,591,452,200  in winnings  thats 2.59 billion in winnings over the last 

    10 years.  These are my predictions for the prediction board, and I will use the same 196,560 tickets for

    the life of the game.  I think this puts me on top.

    RL

    I did not factor in the bonus ball in these calculations, durn it.  I will have to keep looking for a way

    to be king of the predictions board.

    RL

    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: June 6, 2012, 10:09 am - IP Logged

      Cheers my friend  Cheers  Tonight could be the night.

      I Agree!  That's the reason I'll be playing ten lines more than I usually do which is usually none since the price changed to $2.  Its jackpot being 8-10x that of MM has sucked me while MM jackpot is in recover.  MM should be recovered enough by Friday for me to get back to my usual routine of not buying PB tickets.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

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        Posted: June 6, 2012, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

        I suppose the short answer would be..... yes.

        One thing for certain is that in all of my posts I ASSUME the objective is to WIN THE JACKPOT. But around here this seems to be a mistake as I keep seeing post like your where you are asking if I would "throw out" a 5.2% chance of hitting a $7. prize.

        After a while I start thinking that your just messin with me.

        "But around here this seems to be a mistake as I keep seeing post like your where you are asking if I would "throw out" a 5.2% chance of hitting a $7. prize."

        By playing a full 15 number wheel, you already threw out 44 numbers and 99.94% of the possible combinations. The point I was making is about contributing factors like not knowing which 5 of the 15 numbers will be drawn. The even/odd distribution of the 15 numbers will change the amount of all even or all odd combos. The bet is also based on the huge assumption 5 of the numbers will be drawn and matching 4 of the numbers will only return about 40% of the original bet or a 60% loss. 

        Since your objective is to win the jackpot, the $3003 bet on the full 15 number wheel becomes a $105,105 bet because all 35 bonus ball must be played with each of the 3003 combos. At the very least, you would be risking about $70,000 on a 0.06% chance of winning the jackpot.

        "After a while I start thinking that your just messin with me."

        Since I haven't seen you make any 5000 to 8 million combo jackpot "good in all games" predictions with no explanation, there is no reason to mess with you. I'm not sure if those making that type of predictions are messing with us because they did the math and know the chances of hitting a jackpot somewhere are high even though logistically impossible to play or they have no clue and just want recognition for matching 3 or 4 of their 25 numbers out of 39 somewhere. Today someone posted their "special" 10 numbers for tonight's PB drawing with no explanation. They don't have enough sense to at least give an example of how they plan on playing them.

        Do they really believe players will get the 8820 tickets necessary to hit the jackpot based on nothing but the fact they called them "special"?


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          Posted: June 6, 2012, 3:10 pm - IP Logged

          "But around here this seems to be a mistake as I keep seeing post like your where you are asking if I would "throw out" a 5.2% chance of hitting a $7. prize."

          By playing a full 15 number wheel, you already threw out 44 numbers and 99.94% of the possible combinations. The point I was making is about contributing factors like not knowing which 5 of the 15 numbers will be drawn. The even/odd distribution of the 15 numbers will change the amount of all even or all odd combos. The bet is also based on the huge assumption 5 of the numbers will be drawn and matching 4 of the numbers will only return about 40% of the original bet or a 60% loss. 

          Since your objective is to win the jackpot, the $3003 bet on the full 15 number wheel becomes a $105,105 bet because all 35 bonus ball must be played with each of the 3003 combos. At the very least, you would be risking about $70,000 on a 0.06% chance of winning the jackpot.

          "After a while I start thinking that your just messin with me."

          Since I haven't seen you make any 5000 to 8 million combo jackpot "good in all games" predictions with no explanation, there is no reason to mess with you. I'm not sure if those making that type of predictions are messing with us because they did the math and know the chances of hitting a jackpot somewhere are high even though logistically impossible to play or they have no clue and just want recognition for matching 3 or 4 of their 25 numbers out of 39 somewhere. Today someone posted their "special" 10 numbers for tonight's PB drawing with no explanation. They don't have enough sense to at least give an example of how they plan on playing them.

          Do they really believe players will get the 8820 tickets necessary to hit the jackpot based on nothing but the fact they called them "special"?

          I hear what your saying, and you make all valid points. In all fairness, we can use 100 combination examples which is something most all of us could do. (if we choose to)

          I'm choosing my 100 lines from the pool of lines that wins the JP 20 times more often, even if it is a 20 times bigger pool. I know I know, "that makes the odds exactly the same" ....... But does it??..... Just because you learned something in a mathematics classroom and all your classmates agree, does not always make it absolutely true in the real world of practical activity.

          Lots of design ideas and classroom "realities" JUST DONT WORK IN THE PRACTICAL WORLD.

                                                                                                      Goof


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            Posted: June 7, 2012, 8:23 pm - IP Logged

            Is there a point to any of this?  Will it help anyone win anything or is Ronnie just looking for another argument?

                                         HERE COMES THE "CRACKING OF THE CODE"

            Randomlogic gave me the idea of focusing on the smaller "losing" group of combinations that are all even/all odd, and I realized that a person could do a "one in 100" blog and only have to use 120,000 lines to get those odds...... 261,261 X 46 = 12,018,006 / 100 = 120,180.06 lines.

            In order to not have to play 20-25 draws waiting for the all even/all odd winner, a person could play "game out" for about 20 draws and then start playing until it hits. 

            Waiting any number of draws less than 10 would give you better odds than "one in 1000"

            (or sumfin like dat, I think.... not sure...... will this work?)

            Just remember to site this post when you hit the JP. lol.


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              Posted: June 9, 2012, 10:59 am - IP Logged

              Ronnie316

              Mega millions has had 16 drawings with 5 even numbers and 10 draws with 5 odd.  There are 28 odd and 28

              even numbers.  The odds for a draw having all 5 even or odd is exactly the same but you can see from the

              history that the totals for each are quite different.  If the game runs long enough then most likely the totals

              for each will move closer and closer to each other.  Odds tell us what we can expect over a span of drawings

              but for a single drawing they are not so telling.   Paint all the odd balls red and the even blue and you could

              expect  very similar results.  There are 98,280 five number combinations of 5 odd and 98,280 with 5 even.

              since ther are 3,819816 total combinations then the odds for 5 odd or 5 red balls are about 1 in 38.

              3,819816/98,280=38.87.  five blue or even would be the same.

              RL

              Thanks for the info RL,

              I'm interested in the intervals between all even/odd draws. If there have been 26 total in the last (roughly) 728 draws, that puts the average interval at every 28 draws. Reason being, the event could be "timed"

              If a person was targeting say an all even draw he is essentially playing a 5/28 game at that point.

              If a person further targeted 4 of 5 numbers instead of 5 of 5, the total combinations would be reduced to 854.

              Of course, bonus ball obstacle still needs to be overcome but 854 x 46 is only 39,284. (a small pool could do it) 

              Using this "random logic" it seems you would hit 4 + 1 even if only 4 of the drawn numbers were even? You would have the bonus ball 854 times. AND you would still further have a chance at 5+1 on all lines played?

              Timing would be the key, It has been 25 draws since an all even draw and last nights draw was 4 even. 

              What would this strategy have produced in last nights MM draw? Just curious?


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                Posted: June 10, 2012, 11:09 am - IP Logged

                "But around here this seems to be a mistake as I keep seeing post like your where you are asking if I would "throw out" a 5.2% chance of hitting a $7. prize."

                By playing a full 15 number wheel, you already threw out 44 numbers and 99.94% of the possible combinations. The point I was making is about contributing factors like not knowing which 5 of the 15 numbers will be drawn. The even/odd distribution of the 15 numbers will change the amount of all even or all odd combos. The bet is also based on the huge assumption 5 of the numbers will be drawn and matching 4 of the numbers will only return about 40% of the original bet or a 60% loss. 

                Since your objective is to win the jackpot, the $3003 bet on the full 15 number wheel becomes a $105,105 bet because all 35 bonus ball must be played with each of the 3003 combos. At the very least, you would be risking about $70,000 on a 0.06% chance of winning the jackpot.

                "After a while I start thinking that your just messin with me."

                Since I haven't seen you make any 5000 to 8 million combo jackpot "good in all games" predictions with no explanation, there is no reason to mess with you. I'm not sure if those making that type of predictions are messing with us because they did the math and know the chances of hitting a jackpot somewhere are high even though logistically impossible to play or they have no clue and just want recognition for matching 3 or 4 of their 25 numbers out of 39 somewhere. Today someone posted their "special" 10 numbers for tonight's PB drawing with no explanation. They don't have enough sense to at least give an example of how they plan on playing them.

                Do they really believe players will get the 8820 tickets necessary to hit the jackpot based on nothing but the fact they called them "special"?

                Thanks for the reply Stack, but Im not sure how you got off on "playing a full 15 number wheel"?

                The thread topic is Do some combinations have better odds?

                If you have ever read the story of David and Goliath you may understand that David was the only one out in all the great armies that realized Goliath had only one very small weak point in his armour that protected him. He also realized that if he was going to exploit that one very small weak point he was going to have to use stone that was small enough to penetrate the unprotected opening in the armour.

                 

                All even numbers are the lotteries weak point.


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                  Posted: June 10, 2012, 6:00 pm - IP Logged

                  I did not factor in the bonus ball in these calculations, durn it.  I will have to keep looking for a way

                  to be king of the predictions board.

                  RL

                  Yeah, I see. I need too adjust my calculations as well. In order for me to cover all 4/28 combinations I need to play 20,475 lines.

                  The Lottery Combination Generator wont allow me to select 28 even numbers and I'm not sure how to play the 5th number.

                  If I play a 5/28 full wheel (98,280 lines) is there a way to deflate those lines down to about 46,000 lines?

                  Any suggestions?

                    SergeM's avatar - slow icon.png
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                    Posted: June 10, 2012, 6:32 pm - IP Logged

                    Just pick the right numbers.


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                      Posted: June 10, 2012, 7:29 pm - IP Logged

                      Just pick the right numbers.

                      I'm going to play 46,000 lines of all even numbers. It will give me a 50/50 chance of hitting 5 out of 5 provided I'm playing the draw that comes up all even numbers. I will be using Thrifty's shotgun method of pooling 3 months $$$ and playing 1 draw.

                      For a pool of 10 people it will only cost $1500. each month per person. (my friends can afford it and believe I can pick the draw)

                      If we like the results we will repeat.

                      I do need help getting the combinations on paper so I can fill out the play slips. It will be a little over 3 cases of paper, and I'm going to walk into my State Lottery office and tell them I'm playing Thrifty's Shotgun Method and ask them to print all the tickets.

                      Because they only accept cash, I will need 460 $100 dollar bills. (it will fit in 9 cash envelopes from the bank, and I will carry it in my back pocket) Bringing in the play slips will be a lot more work than bringing in the cash. lol.


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                        Posted: June 10, 2012, 7:36 pm - IP Logged

                        I'm going to play 46,000 lines of all even numbers. It will give me a 50/50 chance of hitting 5 out of 5 provided I'm playing the draw that comes up all even numbers. I will be using Thrifty's shotgun method of pooling 3 months $$$ and playing 1 draw.

                        For a pool of 10 people it will only cost $1500. each month per person. (my friends can afford it and believe I can pick the draw)

                        If we like the results we will repeat.

                        I do need help getting the combinations on paper so I can fill out the play slips. It will be a little over 3 cases of paper, and I'm going to walk into my State Lottery office and tell them I'm playing Thrifty's Shotgun Method and ask them to print all the tickets.

                        Because they only accept cash, I will need 460 $100 dollar bills. (it will fit in 9 cash envelopes from the bank, and I will carry it in my back pocket) Bringing in the play slips will be a lot more work than bringing in the cash. lol.

                        Do not let on the location and time you expect to arrive with all this cash, there may be a lurking     Lurking     stalker here that just

                        may mug you.


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                          Posted: June 10, 2012, 7:43 pm - IP Logged

                          Do not let on the location and time you expect to arrive with all this cash, there may be a lurking     Lurking     stalker here that just

                          may mug you.

                          Yes, true. And I will want to resist stopping off at the strip club on my way down there.   Wink

                            Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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                            Posted: June 10, 2012, 8:29 pm - IP Logged

                            While I think that you should reconsider your position that certain groups are better or worse than others (in terms of odds) I'd offern one piece of advice, and also have one point I'd like to raise in curiosity.

                             

                            Advice - When choosing numbers to play, the only thing that can help raise your Expected Value is to pick number combinations that other people are less likely to pick themselves, thus lowering the odds of you sharing the jackpot (note that 80% of tickets sold are QPs, so sales still affect your odds of sharing a winning JP, while a disporpotionate amount of people pick lower numbers from birthdays and the like when they choose their own combos.)  So rather than playing all evens, I'd suggest playing all highs.

                             

                            Curiosity - How do you plan on filling out, and playing all of those combinations, assuming you actually play 46000 lines at once?  Would you call the Lottery office and arrange for it?  Or would you fill out 46000 lines on playslips by hand?  And what about human error?  This seems like a difficult task in and of itself.

                             

                            Anyway, while I would never play that much, I wish you good luck!


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                              Posted: June 10, 2012, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

                              Yes, true. And I will want to resist stopping off at the strip club on my way down there.   Wink

                              You must have incredible discipline!  Eek

                                 
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