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Do some number combinations have better odds?

Topic closed. 5280 replies. Last post 4 years ago by rdgrnr.

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Posted: June 17, 2012, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

Random means random.  It's going to match very closely in the long term, and more closesly the longer it goes.

 

Go ahead and look at all of the characteristics.  I doubt they are all that close.  If you're talking about a 1 in 38.2 chance, then you are probably going to be close within a few thousand draws.  Maybe not perfectly matching, maybe almost perfectly matching, or maybe close, but they probably aren't that skewed.

 

They aren't perfectly consistent, they are just close, as you'd expect with a normal distribution.  That's what you'd expect if it was random.  The longer the game goes, the close to that 2.6% it'll become.

You can call it "normal distribution" if you want to, but I'm going to call it predictably consistent.

I'm also going to prove it by hitting 5 out of 5 again in WAY less draws than 38.

    Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
    New Jersey
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    Posted: June 17, 2012, 8:04 pm - IP Logged

    Look at all of the other characteristics.

     

    Did odds also come up exactly 41 times?  How about all high?  All low?

     

    I can almost garuntee (I really can't spell that word....) that they aren't all exactly 41 times.  If they were, it'd seem kinda fishy to me.

     

    And if it's random, it can be exactly at expectation, it's just more likely to vary until it gets into thousands upon thousands of draws.  Of course even after thousands of draws, I'd expect a very slight difference between expecation and reality.

      Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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      Posted: June 17, 2012, 8:14 pm - IP Logged

      According to the site I used, there's been 10 all odd draws (first 5 numbers only) and 17 all evens out of 729 draws.

       

      One seems much closer to expectation than the other, but variance over 729 draws with a 1/38.2 chance is pretty high.  This is right in line of a normal distribution (OK I admit I didn't actually do the math, but this just doesn't seem outside of expectation, in other words, I didn't raise an eyebrow when I saw that there's only been 10 all odd draws when probability states there "should have" been around 17 or 18, because variance states that it will probably vary greatly until you do thousands and thousands of draws.

        Boney526's avatar - NjlpLogo
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        Posted: June 17, 2012, 8:16 pm - IP Logged

        You can call it "normal distribution" if you want to, but I'm going to call it predictably consistent.

        I'm also going to prove it by hitting 5 out of 5 again in WAY less draws than 38.

        Do you know what a normal distribution is?  It's a statiscal test to determine whether something outside of expectation is happening.  It's not something I just made up.

         

        If you found that the statistics don't match a normal distribution, then you could be reasonably confident that there's a non random element happening.  But there simply haven't been enough draws to create such a test with reasonable confidence levels.  Give the Mega Millions about 25000 and you could be 99% sure whether it is random or not, by comparing the normal distribution of the odds to the reality.

         

        That wouldn't consitute proof.  Do it over and over and over again, and you could "prove" with 99% confidence that you're right after about 25000 draws.

         

        Like I said, if I knew you personally I would give you 35 to 1 anytime you wanted on this.  You'd be getting way better odds than Mega Millions could give you (in terms of house edge) but I wouldn't be able to pay you 250,000 LOL.


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          Posted: June 17, 2012, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

          According to the site I used, there's been 10 all odd draws (first 5 numbers only) and 17 all evens out of 729 draws.

           

          One seems much closer to expectation than the other, but variance over 729 draws with a 1/38.2 chance is pretty high.  This is right in line of a normal distribution (OK I admit I didn't actually do the math, but this just doesn't seem outside of expectation, in other words, I didn't raise an eyebrow when I saw that there's only been 10 all odd draws when probability states there "should have" been around 17 or 18, because variance states that it will probably vary greatly until you do thousands and thousands of draws.

          Ok, well in that case I will just go back to calling it a "hunch"

          and

          I'm playing all ODD NUMBERS beginning with the MM draw

          Tuesday June 19, 2012 for a max of 10 draws.

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            Palm Beach
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            June 13, 2012
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            Posted: June 17, 2012, 8:32 pm - IP Logged

            For all those losers that sent me emails about the winning numbers that were not winners.

            Even if you knew the winning numbers for that day they will switch it to different number. If it should be live broadcast
            they will use different magnetic balls machines to switch the numbers.
            The winners will be anonymous and when is time to reveal winners they will make a great publicity so that people can fall for that. Another method to confuse people is in the scratch-offs games which will usually make you win but there will be more losers than winners. My best advice "keep your money and live it up" or you can give it away as a total fool when gambling. We all know that gambling is business like any other business.

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              New Member
              Palm Beach
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              June 13, 2012
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              Posted: June 17, 2012, 8:42 pm - IP Logged

              The natinal lottery is another way to return the money to the goverment and it's made for the people that have enough to spare and wanna become more rich but we all know they will never become more rich like uncle sam. If you spare 20 to 50 in a month imagine that money could make you live better life for that month than having to give it away to those idiots in the state.

               

              Time Traveller.

                THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
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                Posted: June 17, 2012, 9:17 pm - IP Logged

                For all those losers that sent me emails about the winning numbers that were not winners.

                Even if you knew the winning numbers for that day they will switch it to different number. If it should be live broadcast
                they will use different magnetic balls machines to switch the numbers.
                The winners will be anonymous and when is time to reveal winners they will make a great publicity so that people can fall for that. Another method to confuse people is in the scratch-offs games which will usually make you win but there will be more losers than winners. My best advice "keep your money and live it up" or you can give it away as a total fool when gambling. We all know that gambling is business like any other business.

                I agree with you. Lotteries are rigged, and they are robbing the players. How about when we buy multiple Quick pick tickets with many numbers repeated which decreases our chances of winning. Great post man. Thank you.

                US Flag

                PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                  THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
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                  Posted: June 17, 2012, 9:21 pm - IP Logged

                  The natinal lottery is another way to return the money to the goverment and it's made for the people that have enough to spare and wanna become more rich but we all know they will never become more rich like uncle sam. If you spare 20 to 50 in a month imagine that money could make you live better life for that month than having to give it away to those idiots in the state.

                   

                  Time Traveller.

                  I have realized that you can beat the lottery by saving your money instead of playing it.

                  US Flag

                  PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                    THRIFTY's avatar - great seal_obverse.jpg
                    NEW YORK
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                    Posted: June 17, 2012, 9:35 pm - IP Logged

                    For all those losers that sent me emails about the winning numbers that were not winners.

                    Even if you knew the winning numbers for that day they will switch it to different number. If it should be live broadcast
                    they will use different magnetic balls machines to switch the numbers.
                    The winners will be anonymous and when is time to reveal winners they will make a great publicity so that people can fall for that. Another method to confuse people is in the scratch-offs games which will usually make you win but there will be more losers than winners. My best advice "keep your money and live it up" or you can give it away as a total fool when gambling. We all know that gambling is business like any other business.

                    The lottery can decide when and where a prize is given out because it knows all the combinations in play.

                    US Flag

                    PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!


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                      Posted: June 17, 2012, 9:42 pm - IP Logged

                      I have realized that you can beat the lottery by saving your money instead of playing it.

                      THRIFTY is the MAN.

                      The best advice on all of LP can be found right here in Thrifty's posts.

                        Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                        Texas
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                        Posted: June 17, 2012, 10:12 pm - IP Logged

                        Truth be known, lotteries are, in fact, designed purposely hard and to really make the states money. They market these games and all that money purely on people's dreams and their hopes of winning it. That's it. The games aren't rigged in any shape, form, or fashion. The only problem here is people's misconception of these games and the odds contained therein. You're not dealing with Pick 3 where it's very, very easy to win just by playing one or two complete combinations that are reasonably filtered...and play 'em consistently. You have to hit within a couple of draws or so with only 0-9 as the parameters.

                        With PB and MM's, people, we're dealing with approximately (50) numbers to chose only (1) from in each position. Think about this for just a minute, okay: a maximum of only (10) to choose from in Pick 3/4 versus (59) with PB. You simply cannot combine enough to have a chance, with a system, in either PB or MM's. It's not the payout that makes it easier to win, it's the amount of numbers involved. It has actually been proven that if a person was to save the money they spend on jackpot games for only (3) months, they'd come out with more than they could even think of winning in an entire year...unless they hit 4+0, or 3+1 twice.

                        Hey, a dollar and dream is what it is and people do get lucky even with (5) numbers. This will happen way more than matching all (6). When I do play, I look for (4) and hope for (5)...even when it was a lower payout. Each past drawing, no matter how many tickets are sold during the last draw, is completely independent of the next. This means that just because the jackpot has risen to $.5 billion dollars without a winner, the next draw is still the same, in terms of odds, and isn't promised to produce a winner... i.e. no stipulations on how many or which combinations sold on the last draw, for the next one, at all. It starts over again.

                        Now, if one billion tickets are sold BETWEEN THE LAST, and, UP TO THE VERY NEXT PENDING DRAW, the chances of a winner(s) are pretty good due to the amount of combinations sold for THAT PARTICULAR UPCOMING DRAW as so many combinations have been sold. In this case, several (5) number winners are pretty much guaranteed. I hope this makes some sense. There's (1) number between winning $1 million or $20+ million...and (1) number between $10K and $100. The deciding factor is always (1) number for the real money here.

                         

                        L.L.


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                          Posted: June 17, 2012, 10:49 pm - IP Logged

                          Truth be known, lotteries are, in fact, designed purposely hard and to really make the states money. They market these games and all that money purely on people's dreams and their hopes of winning it. That's it. The games aren't rigged in any shape, form, or fashion. The only problem here is people's misconception of these games and the odds contained therein. You're not dealing with Pick 3 where it's very, very easy to win just by playing one or two complete combinations that are reasonably filtered...and play 'em consistently. You have to hit within a couple of draws or so with only 0-9 as the parameters.

                          With PB and MM's, people, we're dealing with approximately (50) numbers to chose only (1) from in each position. Think about this for just a minute, okay: a maximum of only (10) to choose from in Pick 3/4 versus (59) with PB. You simply cannot combine enough to have a chance, with a system, in either PB or MM's. It's not the payout that makes it easier to win, it's the amount of numbers involved. It has actually been proven that if a person was to save the money they spend on jackpot games for only (3) months, they'd come out with more than they could even think of winning in an entire year...unless they hit 4+0, or 3+1 twice.

                          Hey, a dollar and dream is what it is and people do get lucky even with (5) numbers. This will happen way more than matching all (6). When I do play, I look for (4) and hope for (5)...even when it was a lower payout. Each past drawing, no matter how many tickets are sold during the last draw, is completely independent of the next. This means that just because the jackpot has risen to $.5 billion dollars without a winner, the next draw is still the same, in terms of odds, and isn't promised to produce a winner... i.e. no stipulations on how many or which combinations sold on the last draw, for the next one, at all. It starts over again.

                          Now, if one billion tickets are sold BETWEEN THE LAST, and, UP TO THE VERY NEXT PENDING DRAW, the chances of a winner(s) are pretty good due to the amount of combinations sold for THAT PARTICULAR UPCOMING DRAW as so many combinations have been sold. In this case, several (5) number winners are pretty much guaranteed. I hope this makes some sense. There's (1) number between winning $1 million or $20+ million...and (1) number between $10K and $100. The deciding factor is always (1) number for the real money here.

                           

                          L.L.

                          Agreed LL. Everything you said is truth.

                          I need to play 100,000 lines to have a 1 in 38 chance at 5 out of 5

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                            kings mountain
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                            November 5, 2011
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                            Posted: June 17, 2012, 11:26 pm - IP Logged

                            For all those losers that sent me emails about the winning numbers that were not winners.

                            Even if you knew the winning numbers for that day they will switch it to different number. If it should be live broadcast
                            they will use different magnetic balls machines to switch the numbers.
                            The winners will be anonymous and when is time to reveal winners they will make a great publicity so that people can fall for that. Another method to confuse people is in the scratch-offs games which will usually make you win but there will be more losers than winners. My best advice "keep your money and live it up" or you can give it away as a total fool when gambling. We all know that gambling is business like any other business.

                            "magnetic ball machines? hummm...that explains why some combos in pick 3 occurs more often than others.


                              United States
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                              Posted: June 17, 2012, 11:44 pm - IP Logged

                              "magnetic ball machines? hummm...that explains why some combos in pick 3 occurs more often than others.

                              I have heard a lot of people talk about the magnetic ball machines that they use to make money.

                              I just don't know why they use magnetic ball machines when they already keep like 90% of the money that they take in.

                                 
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