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CA Lottery - California Love - CA Lottery Scratchers

Topic closed. 2718 replies. Last post 1 year ago by CAScratcher20.

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green sandals's avatar - bxvg
Costa Mesa
United States
Member #150634
December 27, 2013
157 Posts
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Posted: May 28, 2014, 6:29 pm - IP Logged

On a very small sample size, I once estimated average 2nd chance participation at roughly 20% per game.  This was back in December or earlier this year, when I was more gung-ho about 2nd chance drawings.  My interest has waned quite a bit since then, mainly thanks to my 0-for-72 average.  Angry

Based on prizes and prizes claimed figures, DM is at 46.27% sold.  Total ticket population is 21,600,000, thus ~9.99 million DM tickets sold.  So, my guesstimate is ~2 million 2nd chance entries for DM.  This game didn't sell anywhere close to its recent predecessors.

Our most recent real-life example was $1MF.  2nd chance entries for that game was actually less than 20%.  Game was at 93.80% sold, total ticket population was 30,000,000, thus ~28,140,000 tickets sold.  2nd chance entry count was 4,847,997.  2nd chance participation rate for $1MF was 17.2%.

The $10 game before that, $250 Million Cash Spectacular, had 7,491,501 2nd chance entries.  I don't have access to the game stats anymore, but I believe by the time that game ended it had 37 top prizes, and they were all claimed, so probably the game was close to 99% sold.  Making that assumption, 2nd chance participation was 17.0% for this game.

17.2% for $1MF.  That is low.  I was thinking more people used 2nd chance entry.  Guess that's not the case.

    green sandals's avatar - bxvg
    Costa Mesa
    United States
    Member #150634
    December 27, 2013
    157 Posts
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    Posted: May 28, 2014, 11:19 pm - IP Logged

    Rare winning day today.  Got a $200 W w CG. Smile

      mrcraft's avatar - images3lp4 zps7dbb4a10.jpg
      Los Angeles, California
      United States
      Member #149492
      December 2, 2013
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      Posted: May 28, 2014, 11:43 pm - IP Logged

      Rare winning day today.  Got a $200 W w CG. Smile

      Nice win!  Thumbs Up

        green sandals's avatar - bxvg
        Costa Mesa
        United States
        Member #150634
        December 27, 2013
        157 Posts
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        Posted: May 29, 2014, 9:59 am - IP Logged

        Nice win!  Thumbs Up

        Thanks, mrcraft.

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          United States
          Member #147165
          September 24, 2013
          507 Posts
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          Posted: May 29, 2014, 12:31 pm - IP Logged

          Rare winning day today.  Got a $200 W w CG. Smile

          Congrats on the win! You got one in 1 in 600+ odds. Mind sharing the ticket #?

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            United States
            Member #154794
            April 29, 2014
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            Posted: May 29, 2014, 12:43 pm - IP Logged

            mrcraft thank you for the statistics.

             

            I would have thought more people would play 2nd chance.

             

            I have been searching for DM tickets in the San Jose/Gilroy area. No luck

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              United States
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              September 24, 2013
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              Posted: May 29, 2014, 1:25 pm - IP Logged

              On a very small sample size, I once estimated average 2nd chance participation at roughly 20% per game.  This was back in December or earlier this year, when I was more gung-ho about 2nd chance drawings.  My interest has waned quite a bit since then, mainly thanks to my 0-for-72 average.  Angry

              Based on prizes and prizes claimed figures, DM is at 46.27% sold.  Total ticket population is 21,600,000, thus ~9.99 million DM tickets sold.  So, my guesstimate is ~2 million 2nd chance entries for DM.  This game didn't sell anywhere close to its recent predecessors.

              Our most recent real-life example was $1MF.  2nd chance entries for that game was actually less than 20%.  Game was at 93.80% sold, total ticket population was 30,000,000, thus ~28,140,000 tickets sold.  2nd chance entry count was 4,847,997.  2nd chance participation rate for $1MF was 17.2%.

              The $10 game before that, $250 Million Cash Spectacular, had 7,491,501 2nd chance entries.  I don't have access to the game stats anymore, but I believe by the time that game ended it had 37 top prizes, and they were all claimed, so probably the game was close to 99% sold.  Making that assumption, 2nd chance participation was 17.0% for this game.

              One area your calculations need to be corrected is, 2nd Chance only takes in losing tickets. You are accounting for all the tickets when it comes to your percentage. The odds of a winning ticket for Diamond Millionaire, $1MF, and California Black Exclusive is 1 in about 3.30, no matter what people here think of each game whether one is superior or inferior, they are the SAME game with the SAME payout odds.

              Going to do rough estimates will not do exact numbers, so there were 30 Million $1MF tickets. There will be about 9.1 million winners and about 20.9 million were losers (1 in 3.30 is about one-third). So 4.85 million out of (93.8% of 20.9 million) which is 19.6 million comes out to 24.7%. Not that much skewed from 17% but still a good majority do not bother with the replay. The 1000 ticket monthly limitation is also a factor.

              I paid attention to each End of Draw game since the inception of Replay now known as 2nd Chance and I see roughly 20-25% of the losing tickets entered in. The crosswords have the highest percentages of entrees, I guess thats where most of the hardcore scratcher players are at. 

              Personal disappointment aside, mathematically the 2nd Chance Draw is the best odds of winning the Grand Prize compared to buying ticket by ticket.

                mrcraft's avatar - images3lp4 zps7dbb4a10.jpg
                Los Angeles, California
                United States
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                December 2, 2013
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                Posted: May 29, 2014, 1:34 pm - IP Logged

                One area your calculations need to be corrected is, 2nd Chance only takes in losing tickets. You are accounting for all the tickets when it comes to your percentage. The odds of a winning ticket for Diamond Millionaire, $1MF, and California Black Exclusive is 1 in about 3.30, no matter what people here think of each game whether one is superior or inferior, they are the SAME game with the SAME payout odds.

                Going to do rough estimates will not do exact numbers, so there were 30 Million $1MF tickets. There will be about 9.1 million winners and about 20.9 million were losers (1 in 3.30 is about one-third). So 4.85 million out of (93.8% of 20.9 million) which is 19.6 million comes out to 24.7%. Not that much skewed from 17% but still a good majority do not bother with the replay. The 1000 ticket monthly limitation is also a factor.

                I paid attention to each End of Draw game since the inception of Replay now known as 2nd Chance and I see roughly 20-25% of the losing tickets entered in. The crosswords have the highest percentages of entrees, I guess thats where most of the hardcore scratcher players are at. 

                Personal disappointment aside, mathematically the 2nd Chance Draw is the best odds of winning the Grand Prize compared to buying ticket by ticket.

                You're right.  I kept looking at my calculations, and I had a nagging feeling I was overlooking something.  Thanks for the correction.  Embarassed

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                  south el monte
                  United States
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                  May 4, 2014
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                  Posted: May 29, 2014, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

                  Yeah the 2nd chance games are kind of a hassle to do . Time consuming . 

                  I can see why many ppl don't play them .

                   

                  i been playing the 5 $ games cuz been low on my scratcher funds . Horrible losing streak on the 20x . I bought 7 this week from two different spots and not even a free ticket. .

                   

                   

                  somebody in my city won a 750gs Jp on a scratcher . That's 100 grand win on the 5mjp and a top of the ten dollar xword this month .

                    green sandals's avatar - bxvg
                    Costa Mesa
                    United States
                    Member #150634
                    December 27, 2013
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                    Posted: May 29, 2014, 1:48 pm - IP Logged

                    Congrats on the win! You got one in 1 in 600+ odds. Mind sharing the ticket #?

                    Thanks to all for congrats & GLTA

                    CG 200 W

                      green sandals's avatar - bxvg
                      Costa Mesa
                      United States
                      Member #150634
                      December 27, 2013
                      157 Posts
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                      Posted: May 29, 2014, 2:48 pm - IP Logged

                      I may be on a bit of a roll.SmileSmile

                      As always, thanks to all for congrats & GLTA.

                       

                      CG 200 W 2

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                        United States
                        Member #147165
                        September 24, 2013
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                        Posted: May 29, 2014, 2:56 pm - IP Logged

                        I may be on a bit of a roll.SmileSmile

                        As always, thanks to all for congrats & GLTA.

                         

                        CG 200 W 2

                        Wow another one! Congrats again! Thanks for the screenshots for both tickets.

                          green sandals's avatar - bxvg
                          Costa Mesa
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                          December 27, 2013
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                          Posted: May 29, 2014, 7:00 pm - IP Logged

                          If anyone still wants to buy Diamond Millionaire, B&B Liquor on Westminster & Kerry St in Garden Grove had a big roll of about 40 tickets today.

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                            United States
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                            April 29, 2014
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                            Posted: May 29, 2014, 7:11 pm - IP Logged

                            California Gold and Black have been quiet. One of them must have  a top prize to be  claimed soon.

                             

                            Just read on Facebook someone just claimed a $2.00 California Lucky Life Ticket

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                              Pasadena, CA
                              United States
                              Member #153326
                              March 13, 2014
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                              Posted: May 29, 2014, 11:21 pm - IP Logged

                              If anyone still wants to buy Diamond Millionaire, B&B Liquor on Westminster & Kerry St in Garden Grove had a big roll of about 40 tickets today.

                              I personally would hold any Scratcher $$ until the Wheel of Fortune tickets come out at the end of June. DM was a terrible ticket. I understand that there are a handful of prizes to be claimed, but overall, it's a generally dull game. The exact same odds, play-style and prize structure as the current CBE ticket, only with a $100 spot.

                               

                              On the other hand, great job on the Gold ticket!

                                 
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