Costa Mesa United States
Member #150,627
December 27, 2013
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Quote: Originally posted by mrcraft on May 28, 2014
On a very small sample size, I once estimated average 2nd chance participation at roughly 20% per game. This was back in December or earlier this year, when I was more gung-ho about 2nd chance drawings. My interest has waned quite a bit since then, mainly thanks to my 0-for-72 average.
Based on prizes and prizes claimed figures, DM is at 46.27% sold. Total ticket population is 21,600,000, thus ~9.99 million DM tickets sold. So, my guesstimate is ~2 million 2nd chance entries for DM. This game didn't sell anywhere close to its recent predecessors.
Our most recent real-life example was $1MF. 2nd chance entries for that game was actually less than 20%. Game was at 93.80% sold, total ticket population was 30,000,000, thus ~28,140,000 tickets sold. 2nd chance entry count was 4,847,997. 2nd chance participation rate for $1MF was 17.2%.
The $10 game before that, $250 Million Cash Spectacular, had 7,491,501 2nd chance entries. I don't have access to the game stats anymore, but I believe by the time that game ended it had 37 top prizes, and they were all claimed, so probably the game was close to 99% sold. Making that assumption, 2nd chance participation was 17.0% for this game.
17.2% for $1MF. That is low. I was thinking more people used 2nd chance entry. Guess that's not the case.
United States
Member #147,159
September 24, 2013
507 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by mrcraft on May 28, 2014
On a very small sample size, I once estimated average 2nd chance participation at roughly 20% per game. This was back in December or earlier this year, when I was more gung-ho about 2nd chance drawings. My interest has waned quite a bit since then, mainly thanks to my 0-for-72 average.
Based on prizes and prizes claimed figures, DM is at 46.27% sold. Total ticket population is 21,600,000, thus ~9.99 million DM tickets sold. So, my guesstimate is ~2 million 2nd chance entries for DM. This game didn't sell anywhere close to its recent predecessors.
Our most recent real-life example was $1MF. 2nd chance entries for that game was actually less than 20%. Game was at 93.80% sold, total ticket population was 30,000,000, thus ~28,140,000 tickets sold. 2nd chance entry count was 4,847,997. 2nd chance participation rate for $1MF was 17.2%.
The $10 game before that, $250 Million Cash Spectacular, had 7,491,501 2nd chance entries. I don't have access to the game stats anymore, but I believe by the time that game ended it had 37 top prizes, and they were all claimed, so probably the game was close to 99% sold. Making that assumption, 2nd chance participation was 17.0% for this game.
One area your calculations need to be corrected is, 2nd Chance only takes in losing tickets. You are accounting for all the tickets when it comes to your percentage. The odds of a winning ticket for Diamond Millionaire, $1MF, and California Black Exclusive is 1 in about 3.30, no matter what people here think of each game whether one is superior or inferior, they are the SAME game with the SAME payout odds.
Going to do rough estimates will not do exact numbers, so there were 30 Million $1MF tickets. There will be about 9.1 million winners and about 20.9 million were losers (1 in 3.30 is about one-third). So 4.85 million out of (93.8% of 20.9 million) which is 19.6 million comes out to 24.7%. Not that much skewed from 17% but still a good majority do not bother with the replay. The 1000 ticket monthly limitation is also a factor.
I paid attention to each End of Draw game since the inception of Replay now known as 2nd Chance and I see roughly 20-25% of the losing tickets entered in. The crosswords have the highest percentages of entrees, I guess thats where most of the hardcore scratcher players are at.
Personal disappointment aside, mathematically the 2nd Chance Draw is the best odds of winning the Grand Prize compared to buying ticket by ticket.
Los Angeles, California United States
Member #149,486
December 2, 2013
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Quote: Originally posted by CAScratcher20 on May 29, 2014
One area your calculations need to be corrected is, 2nd Chance only takes in losing tickets. You are accounting for all the tickets when it comes to your percentage. The odds of a winning ticket for Diamond Millionaire, $1MF, and California Black Exclusive is 1 in about 3.30, no matter what people here think of each game whether one is superior or inferior, they are the SAME game with the SAME payout odds.
Going to do rough estimates will not do exact numbers, so there were 30 Million $1MF tickets. There will be about 9.1 million winners and about 20.9 million were losers (1 in 3.30 is about one-third). So 4.85 million out of (93.8% of 20.9 million) which is 19.6 million comes out to 24.7%. Not that much skewed from 17% but still a good majority do not bother with the replay. The 1000 ticket monthly limitation is also a factor.
I paid attention to each End of Draw game since the inception of Replay now known as 2nd Chance and I see roughly 20-25% of the losing tickets entered in. The crosswords have the highest percentages of entrees, I guess thats where most of the hardcore scratcher players are at.
Personal disappointment aside, mathematically the 2nd Chance Draw is the best odds of winning the Grand Prize compared to buying ticket by ticket.
You're right. I kept looking at my calculations, and I had a nagging feeling I was overlooking something. Thanks for the correction.
south el monte United States
Member #154,975
May 4, 2014
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Yeah the 2nd chance games are kind of a hassle to do . Time consuming .
I can see why many ppl don't play them .
i been playing the 5 $ games cuz been low on my scratcher funds . Horrible losing streak on the 20x . I bought 7 this week from two different spots and not even a free ticket. .
somebody in my city won a 750gs Jp on a scratcher . That's 100 grand win on the 5mjp and a top of the ten dollar xword this month .
Pasadena, CA United States
Member #153,319
March 13, 2014
186 Posts
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Quote: Originally posted by green sandals on May 29, 2014
If anyone still wants to buy Diamond Millionaire, B&B Liquor on Westminster & Kerry St in Garden Grove had a big roll of about 40 tickets today.
I personally would hold any Scratcher $$ until the Wheel of Fortune tickets come out at the end of June. DM was a terrible ticket. I understand that there are a handful of prizes to be claimed, but overall, it's a generally dull game. The exact same odds, play-style and prize structure as the current CBE ticket, only with a $100 spot.