Quote: Originally posted by Lucky Loser on Jun 9, 2013
Hmmm, okay. Let's do more number crunching using the same $15 cost @ (60nos). Now, general logic tells me that the kind of efficiency you're trying to pass off here using roughly 1/16th of the total numbers is very difficult. Even if you're fortunate enough to hit within two wins, and you absolutely must, the same applies when you progressive bet up to .50/number okay. Everything just doubles at this point...the cost is now $30/play and the payout is $75...correct?
You must still hit within two plays with the same amount of numbers and efficiency or the check's gonna bounce. The only thing that can offset this is if you win every other play and I'll show you why.
Cost Payout Result Balance
$15 $37.50 Win $52.50 (+$37.50) Recovery + $37.50 Payout = $52.50 New Balance
$15 $37.50 Loss $37.50 (-$15.00) $52.50 - $15.00 Cost = $37.50 New Balance
$15 $37.50 Loss $22.50 (-$15.00) $37.50 - $15.00 Cost = $22.50 New Balance
$15 $37.50 Win $45.00 (+$37.50) Recovery +$37.50 Payout = $45.00 New Balance
This is only a simulation based on the numbers we're dealing with and, again, I gave you the benefit of the doubt on a first play win situation. As you can see, after the second loss, you're in an absolutely must win situation because you only have $7.50 as a balance at that point after wagering another $15.00. So, you get the win which now revives you being able to play at least (3) times because $15 x (3) is $45.00. But, this is only what your balance is. The payout, which is $37.50, must be won within (2) plays because if not, that's $45.00 deficit on three consecutive losses and the $37.50 win won't cover it AFTER A THIRD LOSS.
You must now replenish your account and hope to win on the very next play. As such, $45 Deficit + $15 Replenishment = $60 total involved. If you win here, you recover $37.50 of your total deficit and are still $22.50 in the red...$60 - $37.50 = $22.50 deficit. Numbers, ratios, efficiency, and consistency is the name of the game here and the profit margin is $22.50 per win...($37.50 - $15.00).
Basically, you're telling me that you're guaranteed to win every (2) plays using only (60 nos) on a boxed play but, with your number count, I'm having a very hard time seeing it work. Contrary to your belief, this really isn't enough numbers, by far, to produce the efficiency you're claiming.
L.L.