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Rl's daily game software

Topic closed. 242 replies. Last post 3 years ago by lottoburg.

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jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
Park City, UT
United States
Member #69864
January 18, 2009
993 Posts
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Posted: June 18, 2013, 1:50 pm - IP Logged

Hi all

I wanted to get the ball rolling and start off with a few bits of information

My goal is to play 10 lines and each line 10 times for a $100.00 bet.  If
I hit one out of every 10 attempts then I break even. For every additional
hit I make a $1000.00.

Play on paper until you start winning more than the cost of tickets regardless
of how many lines you choose to play.  Once you reach this level then move to
live play.  For the person with a small budget try to reduce to 5 lines or less.
If playing 5 lines then you only need to hit once in every 20 games to break even. 
Every additional win will put a $100.00 in your pocket.  If playing 3 lines you
only need to hit once every 33 games.  Please play within your budget.   

I thought it was time to post some odds and make it clear
what we are up against.  These odds are for randomaly picking
digits to block but I belive we can do much better than random
suggest.

Blocking 1 digit = 1 in 1.42857
Blocking 2 digit = 1 in 2.14285
Blocking 3 digit = 1 in 3.42857
Blocking 4 digit = 1 in 6.0
Blocking 5 digit = 1 in 12.0
Blocking 6 digit = 1 in 30.0
Blocking 7 digit = 1 in 120

If blocking 3 digits at random and playing stag setups we can
expect to be correct around once in every 3.4 attempts. 

10/3.4=2.9 X $100.00 payout equals $290.00.  The cost to play 10
games would be $350.00 so we could expect to recover 82.857% of
out investment on average. 

Any 7 digit setup, ie blocking 3 digits can be reduced to 35 total
lines for a stag box hit.  72% of all drawings are expected to be
stag but if we track the mid-day and evening drawings and play the
game that has the best chance of going stag then I think this number
could be increased to over 90%.   

To break even we need to be able to correctly block 3 digits in a
stag draw one in every 2.857 games. 

From these figures it's easy to see what needs to be done to come
out ahead in this game.

We need to either do better then the odds suggest when blocking digits
or be able to filter the lines below 29.  I think both of these can be
done.  Lets say that using filters we can reduce the 35 to 20 on average
without loosing the box hit.  This would lower our ticket cost to $200.00
over 10 games vs the $350.00 from above. $290.00-$200.00= $90.00 ROI.

Playing 20 lines on a p-3 is more than I am willing to invest for a $100.00
payout. I believe it's possible to reach 50% or better results blocking 3
digits and I also think the lines can be reduced to less than 10 and still
have a high rate of success.  I am still playing on paper and inching my way
to the less than 10 line limit.  Once I can hit 2 or 3 times in 10 attempts
I am going live. 

Any thoughts?


RL   

I come up with following odds for blocking 3 digits:

7/10 * 6/9 * 5/8 = 210/720 = .291666666 or 1 in 3.42857 like you came up with.

Since Stag draws occur 72% of time you get .291666666 * .72 = .21 or 1 in 4.76 if truly playing randomly by selecting random digits to block and randomly choosing when to play.

A person that is good at selecting digits to block or good at determining when to play stag can do better than 1 in 4.76 but how much better will be upto the individual.  I think probably the most important filter to master would be TR to start with.

From my experience with DMP-BG I found the most predictable filters are ones that have 50% chance of hitting or coin flips.  So other things to track would be Odd-Even by position, High-Low by position, Outer-Inner by position, Flip Digits by position.  These are true coin flip decisions.  So you can track these and block/play digits by position.

If playing Pick4 I think I like playing Doubles (12-way) in box form.  There are 715 combos in Pick4 in box form of which 360 of the 715 are one repeating doubles.  This is basically 50%.  For Missouri which pays $500 for a double if you got good at knowing when to play drag you could play all 360 and profit $140 if you had the balls to play that strategy.  Playing one-repeating doubles in boxed form is the advantage bet for Pick4.  I know everyone wants to win $5000 but I think this bet is more predictable being that its a coin flip and should be predictable as to when to jump in and play drag.  This is also a better bet than any Pick3 bets.  You can think of the Pick4 one-repeating double like playing Pick3 single because you only have 3 unique digits but the bet is more predictable.

Anyway you asked so those are my thoughts.

Jimmy

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    MA
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    Member #89094
    March 30, 2010
    245 Posts
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    Posted: June 18, 2013, 1:58 pm - IP Logged

    RL:

    Just re loaded the new version and it works fine now!

    Thanks for your help!

    Regards

    M

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

      United States
      Member #59354
      March 13, 2008
      3986 Posts
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      Posted: June 18, 2013, 3:36 pm - IP Logged

      Jimmy

      My calculations don't take into account the 72%. I believe that switching between

      mid-day and evening that I can choose when the stags will hit close to 100%.  In all

      my attempts so far I have only missed once.   For the P-4 game at least for now I

      will stick with doubles blocking 3 and play one key, then use filters down to 2 or 3 lines.

      RL

      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

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        bgonçalves
        Brasil
        Member #92564
        June 9, 2010
        2126 Posts
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        Posted: June 18, 2013, 3:37 pm - IP Logged

        Hello, jimjwright, I need your help to assemble pairs have good peers
          Twin = 00,11,22, ... 99
        We have pairs of sequences (Winsum) = 01,12,23, ........ 89
        What other way to assemble pairs?
        Par = high low
        05.16 ......
        Even and odd
        12,23,32,25 .....
        Multiple pairs of two 13.25
        There are more ways to mount pairs?

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

          United States
          Member #59354
          March 13, 2008
          3986 Posts
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          Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:11 pm - IP Logged

          Jimmy

          Missouri 3-way drag box pays $200 and can be covered in 90 lines.  Thats $110 for a $90.00 bet anytime you

          can predict a drag.  Triples can be covered for $10.00 more.  Drags make up 26% of the draws from 01/01/10

          to now.  I would have to be darn sure before I tossed $90 at $110 profit, like you said it would take balls.

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
            Park City, UT
            United States
            Member #69864
            January 18, 2009
            993 Posts
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            Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:16 pm - IP Logged

            Jimmy

            My calculations don't take into account the 72%. I believe that switching between

            mid-day and evening that I can choose when the stags will hit close to 100%.  In all

            my attempts so far I have only missed once.   For the P-4 game at least for now I

            will stick with doubles blocking 3 and play one key, then use filters down to 2 or 3 lines.

            RL

            Yes I agree most people will do better than 1 in 4.76, but some will not.  The better you are at blocking digits and the better you are at knowing when to play the better you will do.  With your $100 payout in Missouri you have close to 3 chances to break even.  For most states with $80 payout its closer to 2 chances assuming you do nothing more than block 3 digits as your strategy.  If people put their time in they should do well, if they don't they will not do well as it is in life.

            Jimmy

              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
              Park City, UT
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              Member #69864
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              Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:22 pm - IP Logged

              Jimmy

              Missouri 3-way drag box pays $200 and can be covered in 90 lines.  Thats $110 for a $90.00 bet anytime you

              can predict a drag.  Triples can be covered for $10.00 more.  Drags make up 26% of the draws from 01/01/10

              to now.  I would have to be darn sure before I tossed $90 at $110 profit, like you said it would take balls.

              RL

              Yep your payouts in Missouri are definitely a plus.  I think Kentucky also has better payouts.  I will be Tahoe in a few weeks, with their pari-mutual payouts I think it might be better to play for straight versus box but I have not done enough analysis to have a 100% opinion.  Since I live in Utah I'm not driving to Idaho just to play Pick3 so I'm not a hard-core daily game player so people should take my opinions with a grain of salt since I really do not have a horse in the race like everybody else.

              Jimmy

                RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                United States
                Member #59354
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                Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:26 pm - IP Logged

                JW

                You mentioned above about the hi/low, odd/even and blocking digits by position. One of my first P-3

                programs was just that.   I wrote it but never used it,  I think steve may have a copy but not sure.

                RL

                Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                  US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                  jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                  Park City, UT
                  United States
                  Member #69864
                  January 18, 2009
                  993 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:33 pm - IP Logged

                  JW

                  You mentioned above about the hi/low, odd/even and blocking digits by position. One of my first P-3

                  programs was just that.   I wrote it but never used it,  I think steve may have a copy but not sure.

                  RL

                  It was just a thought like I said I personally find it easier to predict 50% coin flips.  I think a Pick3 or Pick4 engine that created as many 50% coin flip filters as possible could build a background optimizer that based on the current state of the game for all of the filters could do very well at predicting future draws in very few lines.  You would not even have to expose the filters to the end-user they could all be inner filters with a smart-pick checkbox or button.  At least that is what my brain tells me but until I tried I would not know for sure.

                  Jimmy

                    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                    Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

                    It was just a thought like I said I personally find it easier to predict 50% coin flips.  I think a Pick3 or Pick4 engine that created as many 50% coin flip filters as possible could build a background optimizer that based on the current state of the game for all of the filters could do very well at predicting future draws in very few lines.  You would not even have to expose the filters to the end-user they could all be inner filters with a smart-pick checkbox or button.  At least that is what my brain tells me but until I tried I would not know for sure.

                    Jimmy

                    Jimmy

                    I wrote a lottery progam that I called the black box, it only had one button, run.  Never got around to finishing

                    it but it sounds very close to what you said.  I whish I knew more about AI and NN's.  If a person could teach it

                    a few rules and just let it run until it spit out the results.

                    RL

                    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                      jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                      Park City, UT
                      United States
                      Member #69864
                      January 18, 2009
                      993 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:42 pm - IP Logged

                      Hello, jimjwright, I need your help to assemble pairs have good peers
                        Twin = 00,11,22, ... 99
                      We have pairs of sequences (Winsum) = 01,12,23, ........ 89
                      What other way to assemble pairs?
                      Par = high low
                      05.16 ......
                      Even and odd
                      12,23,32,25 .....
                      Multiple pairs of two 13.25
                      There are more ways to mount pairs?

                      I like pairs, but there are better ways to play pairs than what you have proposed.  This sounds like a feature request so I see no need to discuss further in RL's thread.

                      Jimmy

                        jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                        Park City, UT
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                        Member #69864
                        January 18, 2009
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                        Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:57 pm - IP Logged

                        Jimmy

                        I wrote a lottery progam that I called the black box, it only had one button, run.  Never got around to finishing

                        it but it sounds very close to what you said.  I whish I knew more about AI and NN's.  If a person could teach it

                        a few rules and just let it run until it spit out the results.

                        RL

                        Agreed I think Pick3 and Pick4 could be had if I had enough time to research these kinds of things.  I've tried similar things for the jackpot games, but even with todays computers and my skills as a programmer I never had enough horsepower to create the data I needed not accounting the time needed to analyze it.  Pick3 and Pick4 we would defintely have the horsepower but I think I would want to live in Missouri or Kentucky.

                        There's probably a 75% probability I will be moving to Reno/Tahoe/Truckee by end of year so maybe I will have to put these games back on my radar.

                        Jimmy

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                          bgonçalves
                          Brasil
                          Member #92564
                          June 9, 2010
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                          Posted: June 18, 2013, 4:59 pm - IP Logged

                          Hello Jim, then you suggest to open a new topic, how to ride peers? thank you

                            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                            United States
                            Member #59354
                            March 13, 2008
                            3986 Posts
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                            Posted: June 19, 2013, 1:05 am - IP Logged

                            JW

                            The DMP-DG will be my last lottery program, I will tinker with my Lexi but that's it for me. 

                            The lexi version has a string wheel and I wrote a kind of auto suggest that places 3 digits

                            into each cell. Yesterday it managed to match 6 of 6 lexi digits for my 5-39 which produced

                            a 5of5 on 648 unfiltered lines.   This was the first perfect run but I have only been using it

                            for less than a month.  My plans are to cut it down to 2 digits per cell which will give me 64

                            lines to start with.   A couple of runs it has managed 5of6 for my lotto and really does not 

                            seem to matter how large the matrix is.  The new 17 million line MM matrix will have a 8 

                            digit lexi but the first digit will be zero or one.  One of the best things I like about it is the

                            run time.  It can process the 17 million lines as fast as DG can run through a  pick-3.

                            RL

                            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                              jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                              Park City, UT
                              United States
                              Member #69864
                              January 18, 2009
                              993 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: June 19, 2013, 1:20 am - IP Logged

                              JW

                              The DMP-DG will be my last lottery program, I will tinker with my Lexi but that's it for me. 

                              The lexi version has a string wheel and I wrote a kind of auto suggest that places 3 digits

                              into each cell. Yesterday it managed to match 6 of 6 lexi digits for my 5-39 which produced

                              a 5of5 on 648 unfiltered lines.   This was the first perfect run but I have only been using it

                              for less than a month.  My plans are to cut it down to 2 digits per cell which will give me 64

                              lines to start with.   A couple of runs it has managed 5of6 for my lotto and really does not 

                              seem to matter how large the matrix is.  The new 17 million line MM matrix will have a 8 

                              digit lexi but the first digit will be zero or one.  One of the best things I like about it is the

                              run time.  It can process the 17 million lines as fast as DG can run through a  pick-3.

                              RL

                              Sweet, heres hoping you get that jackpot with your Lexi !!!  It will be interesting to see how well people do with DMP-DG.  If you can successfully block digits you will win.  Its a logical way to play versus the tic-tac-toe, plus, minus, multiply, pi, stand on your head, throw darts ...etc.

                              Jimmy

                                 
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