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Powerball Matrix Change - April 15, 2015

Topic closed. 227 replies. Last post 1 year ago by weshar75.

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Think's avatar - lightbulb
Marquette, MI
United States
Member #20541
August 20, 2005
705 Posts
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Posted: April 25, 2015, 4:44 pm - IP Logged

Well I doubt this game will go through as what we've seen here. The PB matrix change was suspended because it was too confusing for retailers to explain to players (hmmm...sound familiar?). Until they make it simple, like current and past formats, it will not get much support.

Going back to my mention of one (or more) jurisdictions leaving Powerball, I have a little more info on that. There are currently several lotteries quietly developing their own new multi-state jackpot game for the fall of 2016. I do not yet know the details i.e. matrix, or whether they will use that to replace Powerball, but I think that this development is interestingly coincidental.

After what happened with Hot Lotto I can see why they would not want to be associated with PowerBall.

As for the new Multi State game I hope the odds and prizes are decent.  Maybe some day they may even split up the power plier into a Big-a-plier for Second prize (or maybe second and third prizes) and a small-a-plier for Fourth and lower prizes (or maybe third and lower prizes).

That way the player can decide if the odds warrant spending an extra Dollar or Two to go for the bigaplied or smallaplied  or both bigaplied and smallaplied prizes.

I get the powerplier for the 5 million to one shot at 2 million bucks but I might get a bigaplier and maybe smallaplier depending on how they jigger the prizes and odds on the new game.

    ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
    Idaho
    United States
    Member #56506
    November 21, 2007
    6537 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 25, 2015, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

    Well I doubt this game will go through as what we've seen here. The PB matrix change was suspended because it was too confusing for retailers to explain to players (hmmm...sound familiar?). Until they make it simple, like current and past formats, it will not get much support.

    Going back to my mention of one (or more) jurisdictions leaving Powerball, I have a little more info on that. There are currently several lotteries quietly developing their own new multi-state jackpot game for the fall of 2016. I do not yet know the details i.e. matrix, or whether they will use that to replace Powerball, but I think that this development is interestingly coincidental.

    All of this sounds like a lottery soap opera. LOL So much drama and they can't make up their minds on what they want to do.

    "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

      maringoman's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcTbRxpKQmOfcCoUqF2FyqIOAwDo7rg9G-lfJLAALPGWJWwiz19eRw
      Massachusetts
      United States
      Member #37433
      April 14, 2006
      2747 Posts
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      Posted: May 9, 2015, 9:41 am - IP Logged

      Any news?

      That money's gone fo ever

        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
        Happyland
        United States
        Member #146344
        September 1, 2013
        1129 Posts
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        Posted: May 9, 2015, 10:30 am - IP Logged

        Any news?

        Should be hearing some very soon.

        On a side note, I've gotten a better clarity on the timeline and decision to delay the matrix changes; it was initially delayed ONLY because of the MMC failure. I think I said previously that it was awfully coincidental and my suspicions were confirmed. Officials publicly claimed the delay was to make tweaks etc. but that is false. Now they are considering delaying the changes AGAIN because of the 2nd chance confusing players (as posted above).

        I think the decision will be made this month. I've heard a couple of commissions are reversing their proposed amendments (matrix changes have to be proposed and accepted in each state). Whether they are doing this for leverage or distancing themselves from MUSL is unknown at the moment. I'm getting mixed signals so am unsure about the direction the group is going to take PB (it doesn't help that there are no decent lottery conferences until September, which is where I get most of my information). Deep down inside everyone wants to make a change, because it's essential to the game surviving, but at the same time, Monopoly Millionaires Club is a painful recent memory.

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

          mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
          JACKPOT HUNTER

          United States
          Member #141034
          April 2, 2013
          1408 Posts
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          Posted: May 9, 2015, 12:40 pm - IP Logged

          Should be hearing some very soon.

          On a side note, I've gotten a better clarity on the timeline and decision to delay the matrix changes; it was initially delayed ONLY because of the MMC failure. I think I said previously that it was awfully coincidental and my suspicions were confirmed. Officials publicly claimed the delay was to make tweaks etc. but that is false. Now they are considering delaying the changes AGAIN because of the 2nd chance confusing players (as posted above).

          I think the decision will be made this month. I've heard a couple of commissions are reversing their proposed amendments (matrix changes have to be proposed and accepted in each state). Whether they are doing this for leverage or distancing themselves from MUSL is unknown at the moment. I'm getting mixed signals so am unsure about the direction the group is going to take PB (it doesn't help that there are no decent lottery conferences until September, which is where I get most of my information). Deep down inside everyone wants to make a change, because it's essential to the game surviving, but at the same time, Monopoly Millionaires Club is a painful recent memory.

          If it's not broken, don't fix it.

          Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

          Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
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            March 24, 2001
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            Posted: May 9, 2015, 2:42 pm - IP Logged

            If it's not broken, don't fix it.

            It may not appear broken to you but when states consider the odds of them paying out a million dollar prize compared to the odds of doing that for other games they may have a different opinion.

            MM = 1:18.5M
            6/49 games = 1:14.0M
            PB = 1:5.4M with $2 ticket 1:10.8 per dollars spent

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              haymaker's avatar - Lottery-012.jpg
              Egg Harbor twp.south Jersey shore
              United States
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              June 29, 2011
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              Posted: May 16, 2015, 1:59 pm - IP Logged

              I just picked up 10 advanced draws in Delaware, so I guess we're OK til. 6/17 anyway.

              Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds    -- Charles Mackay  LL.D.

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
                United States
                Member #146344
                September 1, 2013
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                Posted: May 21, 2015, 7:26 pm - IP Logged

                Any news?

                So it looks like July is almost certainly ruled out now. October is what I am being told now. Still fuzzy on whether drastic changes will be made to the proposed matrix.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                  noise-gate's avatar - images q=tbn:ANd9GcR91HDs4UJhjxO7cmeMQWZ5lB_FOcMLOGicau4V74R45tDgPWrr
                  Bay Area - California
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                  December 12, 2012
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                  Posted: May 21, 2015, 9:06 pm - IP Logged

                  So it looks like July is almost certainly ruled out now. October is what I am being told now. Still fuzzy on whether drastic changes will be made to the proposed matrix.

                  They can make all the changes they want. ....After l win it!

                  People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it- George Bernard Shaw.

                    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                    Texas
                    United States
                    Member #55889
                    October 23, 2007
                    5595 Posts
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                    Posted: May 21, 2015, 10:09 pm - IP Logged

                    So it looks like July is almost certainly ruled out now. October is what I am being told now. Still fuzzy on whether drastic changes will be made to the proposed matrix.

                    Looked at the agenda for TLC's meeting next week and they are going to talk about changes to PB.

                    We shall see.

                    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                      RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
                      NY
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                      January 21, 2012
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                      Posted: May 23, 2015, 1:11 am - IP Logged

                      100$ says they don't do it. Raising the matrix won't guarantee bigger jackpots. MM already proved that. If it does grow it's because no one is playing.

                        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                        Happyland
                        United States
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                        September 1, 2013
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                        Posted: May 29, 2015, 11:01 pm - IP Logged

                        100$ says they don't do it. Raising the matrix won't guarantee bigger jackpots. MM already proved that. If it does grow it's because no one is playing.

                        If they don't change the matrix, then at least one or more jurisdictions will leave the game. This is a fact; one that has been conveyed to me by higher powers numerous times, so I don't doubt that they are going to make a change. The question is when, and how drastic. I've heard from a non-commission source that the final matrix will actually feature odds worse than what I've posted in this thread. I can't confirm that at this point, but it is possible that they are trading worse jackpot odds for better overall odds.* By my calculations, the overall odds under the rumored revised matrix (assuming identical structure) will be just a bit better than 1 in 25, an obvious improvement over both the currently-drawn matrix and the pre-2015 proposed changes. All while paying out a few pennies less per dollar.

                        *One issue raised at the Smart-Tech lottery conference this year was that players only wait for the bigger jackpots because they know they won't win any of the lower prizes. So the idea is that by improving overall odds, this will encourage player retention at the lower jackpots. At the same time, the higher top prize odds improves prospects for the larger jackpots that all players crave. It actually makes sense, but I still don't think it will solve jackpot fatigue. I mentioned before that >billion jackpots are unlikely to arrive in the near future, and as of today pretty much all lottery directors want "jackpot management" to prevent this evolution.

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                          Think's avatar - lightbulb
                          Marquette, MI
                          United States
                          Member #20541
                          August 20, 2005
                          705 Posts
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                          Posted: May 29, 2015, 11:41 pm - IP Logged

                          If they don't change the matrix, then at least one or more jurisdictions will leave the game. This is a fact; one that has been conveyed to me by higher powers numerous times, so I don't doubt that they are going to make a change. The question is when, and how drastic. I've heard from a non-commission source that the final matrix will actually feature odds worse than what I've posted in this thread. I can't confirm that at this point, but it is possible that they are trading worse jackpot odds for better overall odds.* By my calculations, the overall odds under the rumored revised matrix (assuming identical structure) will be just a bit better than 1 in 25, an obvious improvement over both the currently-drawn matrix and the pre-2015 proposed changes. All while paying out a few pennies less per dollar.

                          *One issue raised at the Smart-Tech lottery conference this year was that players only wait for the bigger jackpots because they know they won't win any of the lower prizes. So the idea is that by improving overall odds, this will encourage player retention at the lower jackpots. At the same time, the higher top prize odds improves prospects for the larger jackpots that all players crave. It actually makes sense, but I still don't think it will solve jackpot fatigue. I mentioned before that >billion jackpots are unlikely to arrive in the near future, and as of today pretty much all lottery directors want "jackpot management" to prevent this evolution.

                          I have been playing in four decades now and I have yet to win anything decent let alone a jackpot.

                          All the time I have been playing they have just been making it harder and harder to win the jackpot.  If I wanted the smaller prizes I would just quit and save up the money....so guess what...when those jackpot odds get worse again I'm quitting and I will have all those "small prizes" I'm saving up from not playing!

                            pickone4me's avatar - 021414tvlies zpsa453b327.jpg
                            Wisconsin
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                            January 23, 2011
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                            Posted: May 30, 2015, 9:51 am - IP Logged

                            If they don't change the matrix, then at least one or more jurisdictions will leave the game. This is a fact; one that has been conveyed to me by higher powers numerous times, so I don't doubt that they are going to make a change. The question is when, and how drastic. I've heard from a non-commission source that the final matrix will actually feature odds worse than what I've posted in this thread. I can't confirm that at this point, but it is possible that they are trading worse jackpot odds for better overall odds.* By my calculations, the overall odds under the rumored revised matrix (assuming identical structure) will be just a bit better than 1 in 25, an obvious improvement over both the currently-drawn matrix and the pre-2015 proposed changes. All while paying out a few pennies less per dollar.

                            *One issue raised at the Smart-Tech lottery conference this year was that players only wait for the bigger jackpots because they know they won't win any of the lower prizes. So the idea is that by improving overall odds, this will encourage player retention at the lower jackpots. At the same time, the higher top prize odds improves prospects for the larger jackpots that all players crave. It actually makes sense, but I still don't think it will solve jackpot fatigue. I mentioned before that >billion jackpots are unlikely to arrive in the near future, and as of today pretty much all lottery directors want "jackpot management" to prevent this evolution.

                            players only wait for the bigger jackpots because they know they won't win any of the lower prizes. True

                            So the idea is that by improving overall odds, this will encourage player retention at the lower jackpots. I wouldn't bet on it!

                            It actually makes sense, but I still don't think it will solve jackpot fatigue. No it doesn't.  I have explained what is causing that jackpot fatigue,  the same places winning consistently, that is where your problem is.

                            Trump 2016!

                              bobby623's avatar - abstract
                              San Angelo, Texas
                              United States
                              Member #1097
                              January 31, 2003
                              1394 Posts
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                              Posted: May 30, 2015, 10:02 am - IP Logged

                              According to a reliable source in Texas, the new Powerball matrix will be 5/69 + 1/26.
                              This information was released at the Texas Lottery Commission Thursday.
                              We will have to wait until the meeting minutes are published to learn more.

                                 
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