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Powerball Matrix Change - April 15, 2015

Topic closed. 227 replies. Last post 1 year ago by weshar75.

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LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
Happyland
United States
Member #146344
September 1, 2013
1129 Posts
Offline
Posted: June 2, 2015, 11:50 pm - IP Logged

So based on my initial calculations, the cash jackpot in the new PB matrix would have to be $262 million for the equivalent of $150 million in the current version. I must say I am not very impressed. While they increased the 3rd tier prize, all other prizes have remained the same yet suffered increase in odds (with exception to the bottom two tiers). I had high hopes for the proposal of including the multiplier on every regular ticket, but it looks like now they are just increasing the odds à la lipstick on a pig. It will be interesting to see nearly 70% of the prize pool go towards the jackpot; I wonder if they will raise the starting jackpot or rollover thresholds.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

    RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
    NY
    United States
    Member #121961
    January 21, 2012
    3157 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: June 3, 2015, 1:30 am - IP Logged

    It looks like their desperate and trying everything to make this successful. They might as well throw in some colored balls and really confuse everyone. If they take away the 2mill second prize that i always play for then i probably won't play every draw.

      Avatar
      Wyomissing, PA
      United States
      Member #161050
      November 15, 2014
      301 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: June 3, 2015, 6:53 am - IP Logged

      On the positive, the second chance game is gone and 2nd place prize is left the same.

      On the negative, there's a lot! Odds are even more insane with even less value than before. Heck, they might as well double the price again to $4 while they're at it with $5 for Power Play. Those who always play will likely continue to regardless of the odds and price, but the casual player, for which the game relies on for building outsized jackpots will increasingly stay on the sidelines.

      These changes will further dissuade occasional / new players. 1 in 292 million is approaching the entire population of the U.S. estimated at 318 million. As one can see from various replies within this thread, there are some who believe the game is fixed, since the jackpot is often hit in the same few states. A large swath of the population knows little about statistics so such misconceptions can spread and further erode confidence in the game hurting sales.

      For me personally, the updated matrix is awful. I play for the jackpot, but also for 2nd place, which will become twice as difficult to win. In effect, for me, the price is doubling. The 3rd and lower tiers aren't all that different than now. Matching 4 out of 5 for $100 (up to $1,000 with PP) doesn't entice me to play - if anything, it further discourages from buying - why play for such lousy prizes when there are so many better, more realistic choices.

      As I've written many times, more value will generate more sales. If the overall payout was increased from ~50% to around 70%, that would allow for much better payouts across all tiers, increasing player loyalty. Instant games in many jurisdictions already are near / exceed 70% prize payout. It would take a bit longer for jackpots to build initially, but likely generate more profits long-term verses the current iterations of these games with insane odds and lousy value.

      On the bright side, if and when the new matrix goes into effect, it'll be one less game to generally consider playing. It will be a no brainer - don't even bother unless jackpot is super-sized, as in $800+ million annuity / $500+ million cash.

        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
        mid-Ohio
        United States
        Member #9
        March 24, 2001
        19828 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: June 3, 2015, 7:23 am - IP Logged

        PowerBall and MegaMillions was suppose to attract more players for states other games.  With a matrix change as some have shown state games like Ohio's Classic Lotto should attract more players when its jackpot is over $4M with odds of 1:14M since most players will choose to wait until those games jackpots roll to a more appropriate size jackpot for their odds.

         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
           
                     Evil Looking       

          str8ca$hhomie's avatar - Cash

          United States
          Member #146028
          August 22, 2013
          842 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: June 3, 2015, 8:42 am - IP Logged

          PowerBall and MegaMillions was suppose to attract more players for states other games.  With a matrix change as some have shown state games like Ohio's Classic Lotto should attract more players when its jackpot is over $4M with odds of 1:14M since most players will choose to wait until those games jackpots roll to a more appropriate size jackpot for their odds.

                                UPDATE YOUR HISTORIC STATE LOTTERY FILES

                                                                THE

                                       PICK 6/49 GAME WILL RISE AGAIN !

          Sometimes it's extremely difficult if not practically impossible to get people to disregard the smoke and mirrors.  Instead, they seem to enjoy the ride down the proverbial Garden Path....... helpless to extricate themselves from being totally deceived by known forces in their midst who would argue that they have come here for the sole purpose of helping people.......str8ca$hhomie

            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
            mid-Ohio
            United States
            Member #9
            March 24, 2001
            19828 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: June 3, 2015, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

                                  UPDATE YOUR HISTORIC STATE LOTTERY FILES

                                                                  THE

                                         PICK 6/49 GAME WILL RISE AGAIN !

            I always keep the files of the games I might play updated even if I don't play them.  My Ohio's Classic Lotto(6/49) file is updated to its last drawing on Monday 06/01/2015 and ready for duty and since its jackpot's at $5M/$2.5 cash I may play ten lines for it instead of 5 lines for PB. 

             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
               
                         Evil Looking       

              str8ca$hhomie's avatar - Cash

              United States
              Member #146028
              August 22, 2013
              842 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: June 3, 2015, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

              I always keep the files of the games I might play updated even if I don't play them.  My Ohio's Classic Lotto(6/49) file is updated to its last drawing on Monday 06/01/2015 and ready for duty and since its jackpot's at $5M/$2.5 cash I may play ten lines for it instead of 5 lines for PB. 

              RJOH,

                                                      RULE # 1

              Keep your Powerball and Mega Millions files close and your State's Pick 6/49 Game files closer.

                                                 

              Sometimes it's extremely difficult if not practically impossible to get people to disregard the smoke and mirrors.  Instead, they seem to enjoy the ride down the proverbial Garden Path....... helpless to extricate themselves from being totally deceived by known forces in their midst who would argue that they have come here for the sole purpose of helping people.......str8ca$hhomie

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
                United States
                Member #146344
                September 1, 2013
                1129 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: June 3, 2015, 5:55 pm - IP Logged

                On the positive, the second chance game is gone and 2nd place prize is left the same.

                On the negative, there's a lot! Odds are even more insane with even less value than before. Heck, they might as well double the price again to $4 while they're at it with $5 for Power Play. Those who always play will likely continue to regardless of the odds and price, but the casual player, for which the game relies on for building outsized jackpots will increasingly stay on the sidelines.

                These changes will further dissuade occasional / new players. 1 in 292 million is approaching the entire population of the U.S. estimated at 318 million. As one can see from various replies within this thread, there are some who believe the game is fixed, since the jackpot is often hit in the same few states. A large swath of the population knows little about statistics so such misconceptions can spread and further erode confidence in the game hurting sales.

                For me personally, the updated matrix is awful. I play for the jackpot, but also for 2nd place, which will become twice as difficult to win. In effect, for me, the price is doubling. The 3rd and lower tiers aren't all that different than now. Matching 4 out of 5 for $100 (up to $1,000 with PP) doesn't entice me to play - if anything, it further discourages from buying - why play for such lousy prizes when there are so many better, more realistic choices.

                As I've written many times, more value will generate more sales. If the overall payout was increased from ~50% to around 70%, that would allow for much better payouts across all tiers, increasing player loyalty. Instant games in many jurisdictions already are near / exceed 70% prize payout. It would take a bit longer for jackpots to build initially, but likely generate more profits long-term verses the current iterations of these games with insane odds and lousy value.

                On the bright side, if and when the new matrix goes into effect, it'll be one less game to generally consider playing. It will be a no brainer - don't even bother unless jackpot is super-sized, as in $800+ million annuity / $500+ million cash.

                "As I've written many times, more value will generate more sales. If the overall payout was increased from ~50% to around 70%, that would allow for much better payouts across all tiers, increasing player loyalty."

                Slowly but surely the lotteries will come to their senses. Coincidentally, there was a discussion about payouts at Smart-Tech this year, and several officials admitted that eventually they will have to raise payouts beyond the standard "50%" to continue retaining player interest.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                  MaximumMillions's avatar - Lottery-013.jpg

                  Germany
                  Member #164603
                  March 8, 2015
                  613 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: June 3, 2015, 7:35 pm - IP Logged

                  The odds are abysmal and yet it's twice as expensive as MM. I foresee a lot of PB players swinging over to MM. MM might just get it's first billion dollar jackpot. Maybe they should double their wager. :D

                    Avatar
                    NY
                    United States
                    Member #23835
                    October 16, 2005
                    3474 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: June 3, 2015, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

                    That is really intellectually dishonest debate, while you still continue to insult my intelligence because I refuse to buy the "official story" or "buy the lottery faq's"  When I see  the  odds of probability defied, again and again,  there is nothing wrong with questioning what is happening.  If it makes you feel better to insult me, so be it, don't expect me to respond back.

                    "That is really intellectually dishonest debate"

                    I can see how you might think that since you've got no understanding of it at all. As for insulting you, I'm sorry that an accurate description of reality doesn't flatter you.

                      Avatar
                      Arizona
                      United States
                      Member #165073
                      March 24, 2015
                      220 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: June 3, 2015, 8:47 pm - IP Logged

                      The odds are abysmal and yet it's twice as expensive as MM. I foresee a lot of PB players swinging over to MM. MM might just get it's first billion dollar jackpot. Maybe they should double their wager. :D

                      It's a bit counterintuitive, but more players for MM probably reduces the chance of jackpots growing ever larger.

                      More players = more tickets sold for each drawing = higher chance of a winner in any given drawing = fewer expected rollovers before someone wins.

                      On the other hand,

                      More tickets sold = more money goes into prize pool = larger jackpot increase per rollover.

                      I haven't done any rigorous calculations, but I'm pretty sure the first factor outweighs the second.

                        SilverLion's avatar - 8ball

                        United States
                        Member #165541
                        April 12, 2015
                        545 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: June 3, 2015, 9:30 pm - IP Logged

                        It looks like their desperate and trying everything to make this successful. They might as well throw in some colored balls and really confuse everyone. If they take away the 2mill second prize that i always play for then i probably won't play every draw.

                        Colored balls would be awsome!!!  They have lots of colored balls in Europe!!

                          Avatar

                          United States
                          Member #135804
                          November 29, 2012
                          318 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: June 4, 2015, 1:53 am - IP Logged

                          Time to change the matrix. Too few $300m+ pots (1 a year?). Takes way too long to accumulate. Need to combine into 1 national game so as to not divvy up the sales.

                            RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                            mid-Ohio
                            United States
                            Member #9
                            March 24, 2001
                            19828 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: June 4, 2015, 8:49 am - IP Logged

                            RJOH,

                                                                    RULE # 1

                            Keep your Powerball and Mega Millions files close and your State's Pick 6/49 Game files closer.

                                                               

                            All the game results for the games I play are on the Ohio's website, so when I check one it's easy to update the rest. 

                             * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                               
                                         Evil Looking       

                              RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
                              NY
                              United States
                              Member #121961
                              January 21, 2012
                              3157 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: June 5, 2015, 1:24 pm - IP Logged

                              They might have to raise the matrix to 100 since it was hit with less then half the tickets MM sold.

                                 
                                Page 14 of 16