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Powerball Matrix Change - April 15, 2015

Topic closed. 227 replies. Last post 1 year ago by weshar75.

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NEW YORK
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Posted: December 17, 2014, 3:36 pm - IP Logged

I only play games that gives returns for me and then some for a rainy day but not games that vhanges matrix to generate more money for the house. When too many people winning the house will change their rules to reflect the percentage and make it so that winning cant easy. Of course they find ways to attract players by getting the jackpot higher. I play same numbers on these games and just play and forget.

Buy 1 lottery ticket when the jackpot is higher?

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PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

    Think's avatar - lightbulb
    Marquette, MI
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    August 20, 2005
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    Posted: December 17, 2014, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

    Will you still be singing this tune when the jackpot is $500 million?

    Or will you secretly make a purchase Naughty Yes Nod

    In the four decades I have been pushing the boulder up the hill I have never had it roll back down.  Why?  Cause the b*stards keep making the hill higher.

    They can suck it!

    When the matrix changes, I'm out.

    I'm tired of trying only to have the c*cksuckers change the goal line on me all the time.

    Allow me to repeat...

    Bllllllll0000000000000000wwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww Me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
      Happyland
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      Posted: December 20, 2014, 1:27 am - IP Logged

      Well, more of the new Powerball puzzle has been solved. If you have been following along, up until this point, I have established a reasonably-clear understanding of the changes, except for the multiplier distribution. Today I finally got this clarified.

      As I've said, each ticket prints "P-O-W-E-R" with 2X, 5X, etc under each letter. This is random, so the multipliers under each letter won't be the same on all tickets.

      I suspected, and have now seen documentation clearly indicating, that the lottery will indeed draw 1 letter. So whatever multiplier is under that letter on your ticket is what will apply to your winnings. I'm also pleased to report that I got the exact number of multiplier "balls" which will be selected from (previously I only had %). There are 39 total with just one 10X, one 5X, three 4X, ten 3X, and twenty-four 2X. So good luck getting that 10X! LOL

      Interestingly, they still call the multiplier "Power Play;" however, I believe that they retained this to show the matrix transition for the rules amendment. At the moment only one state refers to the new multiplier by this, though. I can also [again] confirm that the Power Up (tentative) add-on wager is a completely separate Powerball drawing. This information is recent enough for me to be comfortable with it, but as I've said before, everything is subject to change.

      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

        butch2030's avatar - DiscoBallGlowing
        The KEY ingredient is Combos & Patterns
        Elgin, IL
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        Posted: December 20, 2014, 7:22 am - IP Logged

        Something just doesn't sound right...................

        As I've said, each ticket prints "P-O-W-E-R" with 2X, 5X, etc under each letter. This is random, so the multipliers under each letter won't be the same on all tickets.

        I suspected, and have now seen documentation clearly indicating, that the lottery will indeed draw 1 letter. So whatever multiplier is under that letter on your ticket is what will apply to your winnings. I'm also pleased to report that I got the exact number of multiplier "balls" which will be selected from (previously I only had %). There are 39 total with just one 10X, one 5X, three 4X, ten 3X, and twenty-four 2X. So good luck getting that 10X! LOL

        Are they drawing one letter or one ball???  There is a big difference between the two.  If you assign P =2x = 24 balls, O = 3x = 10 balls, W = 4x = 3 balls, E = 5x = 1 ball, & R = 10x = 1ball. This is one thing, but if you state that  -  the multiplier under each letter won't be the same on all tickets; then you got another problem.  Instead of 39 balls, you now have 39 balls under 5 possible letters for a total of 195 possible combinations.

        Question?  Is the new Powerball Game  Mechanical or RNG????  and/or Is the Power Up Mechanical or RNG?????

        If it looks like a fish, and it smells like a fish,  chances are - it is a fish................................

          ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
          Idaho
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          Posted: December 20, 2014, 11:46 am - IP Logged

          Something just doesn't sound right...................

          As I've said, each ticket prints "P-O-W-E-R" with 2X, 5X, etc under each letter. This is random, so the multipliers under each letter won't be the same on all tickets.

          I suspected, and have now seen documentation clearly indicating, that the lottery will indeed draw 1 letter. So whatever multiplier is under that letter on your ticket is what will apply to your winnings. I'm also pleased to report that I got the exact number of multiplier "balls" which will be selected from (previously I only had %). There are 39 total with just one 10X, one 5X, three 4X, ten 3X, and twenty-four 2X. So good luck getting that 10X! LOL

          Are they drawing one letter or one ball???  There is a big difference between the two.  If you assign P =2x = 24 balls, O = 3x = 10 balls, W = 4x = 3 balls, E = 5x = 1 ball, & R = 10x = 1ball. This is one thing, but if you state that  -  the multiplier under each letter won't be the same on all tickets; then you got another problem.  Instead of 39 balls, you now have 39 balls under 5 possible letters for a total of 195 possible combinations.

          Question?  Is the new Powerball Game  Mechanical or RNG????  and/or Is the Power Up Mechanical or RNG?????

          If it looks like a fish, and it smells like a fish,  chances are - it is a fish................................

          This sounds like a mess. Whatever happened to just drawing a white ball, the red ball and drawing the multiplier. Disapprove

          "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

            RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
            NY
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            Posted: December 20, 2014, 12:10 pm - IP Logged

            Well, more of the new Powerball puzzle has been solved. If you have been following along, up until this point, I have established a reasonably-clear understanding of the changes, except for the multiplier distribution. Today I finally got this clarified.

            As I've said, each ticket prints "P-O-W-E-R" with 2X, 5X, etc under each letter. This is random, so the multipliers under each letter won't be the same on all tickets.

            I suspected, and have now seen documentation clearly indicating, that the lottery will indeed draw 1 letter. So whatever multiplier is under that letter on your ticket is what will apply to your winnings. I'm also pleased to report that I got the exact number of multiplier "balls" which will be selected from (previously I only had %). There are 39 total with just one 10X, one 5X, three 4X, ten 3X, and twenty-four 2X. So good luck getting that 10X! LOL

            Interestingly, they still call the multiplier "Power Play;" however, I believe that they retained this to show the matrix transition for the rules amendment. At the moment only one state refers to the new multiplier by this, though. I can also [again] confirm that the Power Up (tentative) add-on wager is a completely separate Powerball drawing. This information is recent enough for me to be comfortable with it, but as I've said before, everything is subject to change.

            The prize for 5 of 5 matched with the  power up could be anything from 1mill to 10mill now. Is this correct.

              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
              Happyland
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              September 1, 2013
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              Posted: December 20, 2014, 12:56 pm - IP Logged

              Something just doesn't sound right...................

              As I've said, each ticket prints "P-O-W-E-R" with 2X, 5X, etc under each letter. This is random, so the multipliers under each letter won't be the same on all tickets.

              I suspected, and have now seen documentation clearly indicating, that the lottery will indeed draw 1 letter. So whatever multiplier is under that letter on your ticket is what will apply to your winnings. I'm also pleased to report that I got the exact number of multiplier "balls" which will be selected from (previously I only had %). There are 39 total with just one 10X, one 5X, three 4X, ten 3X, and twenty-four 2X. So good luck getting that 10X! LOL

              Are they drawing one letter or one ball???  There is a big difference between the two.  If you assign P =2x = 24 balls, O = 3x = 10 balls, W = 4x = 3 balls, E = 5x = 1 ball, & R = 10x = 1ball. This is one thing, but if you state that  -  the multiplier under each letter won't be the same on all tickets; then you got another problem.  Instead of 39 balls, you now have 39 balls under 5 possible letters for a total of 195 possible combinations.

              Question?  Is the new Powerball Game  Mechanical or RNG????  and/or Is the Power Up Mechanical or RNG?????

              If it looks like a fish, and it smells like a fish,  chances are - it is a fish................................

              They draw 1 letter. Example: if they draw "P," everyone with 2X under their "P" wins 2X their prize, everyone with "4X" under their "P" wins 4X their prize, and so on. In other words, the lottery doesn't choose the multiplier specifically; rather, a distribution. This is in contrast to the current version where they choose the number and everyone prize is multiplied by this. Instead, they pick 1 of 5 letters and the players' winnings depend on their multiplier under that letter.

              The 'balls' are just how the multipliers are weighted. If 24 out of the 39 balls are 2X, then roughly 61.54% of the time your winnings will be 2X, regardless if the lottery chose 1 out 5 letters or 1 out of 26. This is because they choose 1 multiplier (1 letter = 1 multiplier), and 61.54% of possible multipliers are 2X. You can compute the different ways that each multiplier can appear in each position but that doesn't really matter....the probability is still the same. They only choose 1. And it doesn't matter to the player because they are guaranteed to match the letter. It's little difficult to explain this but hopefully you get the idea.

              As far as mechanical or RNG, I presume that the base game and Power Up are mechanical, while the multiplier letter is RNG. Same as current format. Nothing has been suggested or stated otherwise. The rules documents are intentionally vague on this, as they always are, and basically leave it up to MUSL to decide.

              RedStang,

              No, the $1 million prize isn't multiplied. This applies to Power Up as well....its $500K second prize isn't multiplied.

              The multiplier doesn't take effect until the 3rd prize tier and below.

              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
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                September 1, 2013
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                Posted: December 20, 2014, 1:35 pm - IP Logged

                I set up a quick little simulation to illustrate what I'm talking in regards to the multiplier. The green represents a distribution and the aqua/teal represents the simulated result. So for the top green (under the letters), each letter has the probability distribution outlined in the 'E' and 'R' columns (below). Then, the "Letter Drawn" distribution is simply 1 of 5, where each letter drawn by the lottery is expected to show up 20% of the time. I then reverse back through that logic process to match the player's letter to the lottery's letter to determine the player's multiplier. I ran this about 100,000 times and unsurprisingly, the player's results match up to the theoretical multiplier distribution. Basically, the lottery is making the multiplier much more creative. It's pretty interesting to say the least.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                  LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                  Happyland
                  United States
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                  September 1, 2013
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                  Posted: December 20, 2014, 6:01 pm - IP Logged

                  IMPORTANT UPDATE:

                  I expected it would be January before any of the lotteries posted final-ish rules, but it looks like one has already jumped on it (Texas).

                  • Power Up is now called Power PLUS
                  • Power Up/PLUS top prize is NO LONGER $10 million cash (though possibly the starting amount); instead, it will be a rolling cash jackpot (pari-mutuel)

                  At quick glance, everything else looks the same. Yes, even the second separate draw. It also makes sense that they dropped the fixed top prize for the add-on wager.

                  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                  2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                    Avatar
                    Wyomissing, PA
                    United States
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                    November 15, 2014
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                    Posted: December 20, 2014, 7:01 pm - IP Logged

                    IMPORTANT UPDATE:

                    I expected it would be January before any of the lotteries posted final-ish rules, but it looks like one has already jumped on it (Texas).

                    • Power Up is now called Power PLUS
                    • Power Up/PLUS top prize is NO LONGER $10 million cash (though possibly the starting amount); instead, it will be a rolling cash jackpot (pari-mutuel)

                    At quick glance, everything else looks the same. Yes, even the second separate draw. It also makes sense that they dropped the fixed top prize for the add-on wager.

                    Thank you for the details. The proposed Powerball with Power Plus is even more of a ripoff than I'd imagined. And confusing!! This has fail written all over it.

                    In particular, the second drawing part. Seems foolish to spend an extra $1 for a second draw with the same exact odds as the first, but pays far, far less for the grand prize (which we now learn isn't even a set prize - yikes!). And the second place prize pays half that of the first drawing, and yet the lower tier prizes pay more. Bizarre!

                    Speaking of the Power Plus grand prize - could it ever grow larger than the main jackpot? I'm already envisioning many players being confused seeing two different jackpot amounts advertised ... some may see the lower amount, such as $10 million, and think wow, that's a ripoff; not realizing it's referring to the Power Plus part.

                    They're going way off the deep-end with these gimmicks to boost lower tier prizes to keep players engaged. They should keep the simple tried and true format, and instead boost the overall payout percentage from ~50% to 65%-75%, which would allow for larger lower tier prizes and faster jackpot growth - that would be more effective.

                      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                      Happyland
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                      Posted: December 20, 2014, 7:16 pm - IP Logged

                      Thank you for the details. The proposed Powerball with Power Plus is even more of a ripoff than I'd imagined. And confusing!! This has fail written all over it.

                      In particular, the second drawing part. Seems foolish to spend an extra $1 for a second draw with the same exact odds as the first, but pays far, far less for the grand prize (which we now learn isn't even a set prize - yikes!). And the second place prize pays half that of the first drawing, and yet the lower tier prizes pay more. Bizarre!

                      Speaking of the Power Plus grand prize - could it ever grow larger than the main jackpot? I'm already envisioning many players being confused seeing two different jackpot amounts advertised ... some may see the lower amount, such as $10 million, and think wow, that's a ripoff; not realizing it's referring to the Power Plus part.

                      They're going way off the deep-end with these gimmicks to boost lower tier prizes to keep players engaged. They should keep the simple tried and true format, and instead boost the overall payout percentage from ~50% to 65%-75%, which would allow for larger lower tier prizes and faster jackpot growth - that would be more effective.

                      It all boils down to allocation. Power PLUS allocates more of its prize pool to the lower prizes, which is why they are higher.

                      Therefore it is highly unlikely the PP jackpot will ever be larger than that of the base drawing. I'm sure this was intentional. And again, yes the odds are the same, but it only costs half as much ($1 per play, though technically it's conditional on spending $2 first). So it balances out.

                      I agree, they should boost the overall payout percentage. I have been saying this for years and pointing out the success with high-payout scratchers.

                      Unfortunately, it's not going to happen. As we saw with MMC, they prefer to keep draw game payouts around 50% regardless of price.

                      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                        Happyland
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                        Posted: December 24, 2014, 2:46 am - IP Logged

                        IMPORTANT UPDATE:

                        I expected it would be January before any of the lotteries posted final-ish rules, but it looks like one has already jumped on it (Texas).

                        • Power Up is now called Power PLUS
                        • Power Up/PLUS top prize is NO LONGER $10 million cash (though possibly the starting amount); instead, it will be a rolling cash jackpot (pari-mutuel)

                        At quick glance, everything else looks the same. Yes, even the second separate draw. It also makes sense that they dropped the fixed top prize for the add-on wager.

                        ANOTHER UPDATE:

                        Based on the information provided in the Texas rules I mentioned above, it appeared and was implied in the rules that MUSL dropped the fixed $10 million prize and the Power PLUS jackpot would roll. After further investigation, this is not the case. My original information was correct.

                        • Top prize of the add-on Power PLUS is fixed, pari-mutuel $10 million cash (apparently sales wouldn't be strong enough to sustain a rollover)
                        • Everything else looks to be in order, tentative of course, but essentially final since states are already posting rules

                        I am puzzled as to why Texas doesn't state the $10 million prize in their rules, since that's obviously a fixed element. However, maybe they are just proposing generic rules that are flexible enough if the prize ends up being changed. All the other states' proposals say $10 million.

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                          Avatar
                          Wyomissing, PA
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                          November 15, 2014
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                          Posted: December 24, 2014, 8:28 am - IP Logged

                          ANOTHER UPDATE:

                          Based on the information provided in the Texas rules I mentioned above, it appeared and was implied in the rules that MUSL dropped the fixed $10 million prize and the Power PLUS jackpot would roll. After further investigation, this is not the case. My original information was correct.

                          • Top prize of the add-on Power PLUS is fixed, pari-mutuel $10 million cash (apparently sales wouldn't be strong enough to sustain a rollover)
                          • Everything else looks to be in order, tentative of course, but essentially final since states are already posting rules

                          I am puzzled as to why Texas doesn't state the $10 million prize in their rules, since that's obviously a fixed element. However, maybe they are just proposing generic rules that are flexible enough if the prize ends up being changed. All the other states' proposals say $10 million.

                          Interesting. A fixed cash prize of say $10 million, while lousy given the 1 in ~286 million odds, is still a lot of money. A strictly variable prize, as is alluded to in the Texas rules, could be far worse depending on how it's calculated. On a related note, what about California? ... or will they be opting out due to their inflexible state law requiring lottery prizes to be para-mutuel.

                          As for no roll-overs, secondary reasons could be to avoid a situation in which the Power Plus 5+1 prize gets towards / exceeds the main jackpot prize, and to reduce player confusion over seeing two variable jackpot amounts being advertised for matching 5+1. Not sure it's going to help though, because I easily foresee players wondering why 5+1 pays jackpot, and also $10 million; some will think it pays both. Two draws is a bad plan - hope they rethink this!

                            rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
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                            Posted: December 24, 2014, 9:18 am - IP Logged

                            I have played PB religiously for years, really just hoping to hit second prize. But I think when the change happens, I'm done with it. I like my lottery games simple, and neat. No gimmicks. I also like my games to be $1 a tic. IF I decide to spend $2, (and I often do), it's by my choice, on games such as Pick 4 shooting for $10,000.

                            CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

                            A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

                              Teddi's avatar - Lottery-008.jpg

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                              Posted: December 24, 2014, 12:57 pm - IP Logged

                              One of the reasons I prefer PB is that MM are media wh0res. Always plastering the names and photos of even second and third tier winners on their website for weeks at a time. That plus the much lower chance of winning a MM jackpot made PB my favored MUSL. Guess I won't be playing either game casually after 4/15. Only when I get a hunch or get swept up into lottery fever...both of which are happening less and less.

                              I will say that I'm not understanding the need for the change. MM changed to ensure longer rollovers and more astronomical jackpots. They have yet to break the record set by the old matrix. PB just needs to leave well enough alone.

                                 
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