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Powerball Matrix Change - April 15, 2015

Topic closed. 227 replies. Last post 2 years ago by weshar75.

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LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
Happyland
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Posted: December 24, 2014, 12:58 pm - IP Logged

Interesting. A fixed cash prize of say $10 million, while lousy given the 1 in ~286 million odds, is still a lot of money. A strictly variable prize, as is alluded to in the Texas rules, could be far worse depending on how it's calculated. On a related note, what about California? ... or will they be opting out due to their inflexible state law requiring lottery prizes to be para-mutuel.

As for no roll-overs, secondary reasons could be to avoid a situation in which the Power Plus 5+1 prize gets towards / exceeds the main jackpot prize, and to reduce player confusion over seeing two variable jackpot amounts being advertised for matching 5+1. Not sure it's going to help though, because I easily foresee players wondering why 5+1 pays jackpot, and also $10 million; some will think it pays both. Two draws is a bad plan - hope they rethink this!

Well, a fixed prize of $10 million on Power PLUS will be the equivalent of $20 million cash in the regular game, which is less than the current starting cash jackpot. A lot of money perhaps, but I have a feeling this could bomb once players realize they're playing the same odds of the base game for a much, much less jackpot. The "second chance" thing might help since the players' numbers would be used in both the primary and Power PLUS drawings, but I don't know. I think 2 draws will be confusing for players, particularly because they have identical matrices. I guess MUSL did this to avoid different sets of numbers on players' tickets (à la MMC).

Of course, the beauty of this is that Power Play is a niche wager that only a small proportion of players elect to play, which means that even if Power Plus flops, the operators can simply change or remove it altogether without adversely affecting the main game. So they probably have nothing to lose here.

It is my understanding that the members have already taken the vote to accept the proposed rules. This doesn't necessarily mean they won't or can't change, but every time they propose a modification, it has to be agreed upon. Apparently this takes a lot of effort. A proposal was made to launch a temporary game to operate between now and the MMC game show so players could continue contributing entries, but that vote never happened. I don't know if it's feuds or just disagreement.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2017: 0% (0 tickets)
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

    rcbbuckeye's avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
    Texas
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    Posted: December 24, 2014, 2:01 pm - IP Logged

    Well, a fixed prize of $10 million on Power PLUS will be the equivalent of $20 million cash in the regular game, which is less than the current starting cash jackpot. A lot of money perhaps, but I have a feeling this could bomb once players realize they're playing the same odds of the base game for a much, much less jackpot. The "second chance" thing might help since the players' numbers would be used in both the primary and Power PLUS drawings, but I don't know. I think 2 draws will be confusing for players, particularly because they have identical matrices. I guess MUSL did this to avoid different sets of numbers on players' tickets (à la MMC).

    Of course, the beauty of this is that Power Play is a niche wager that only a small proportion of players elect to play, which means that even if Power Plus flops, the operators can simply change or remove it altogether without adversely affecting the main game. So they probably have nothing to lose here.

    It is my understanding that the members have already taken the vote to accept the proposed rules. This doesn't necessarily mean they won't or can't change, but every time they propose a modification, it has to be agreed upon. Apparently this takes a lot of effort. A proposal was made to launch a temporary game to operate between now and the MMC game show so players could continue contributing entries, but that vote never happened. I don't know if it's feuds or just disagreement.

    Texas has to go thru a comment period before the commissioners can vote to approve the changes, merely procedural. They have to approve the changes if Texas is to keep PB.

    PB sales are WAY down in Texas, and I would imagine sales are down in many, if not all the other states. Actually, sales are down in just about all the draw games in Texas. Scratch off sales are up. I read in the meeting minutes that scratch offs account for 76% of lottery sales in Texas now. Thing is, I think scratch offs are not what they used to be. A few years ago, a pack of scratch offs would have a guarantee payout of about 50% of the cost of the pack. Now it's more like 40%, and we have one $10 ticket where the guaranteed payout is only 30% of the pack cost.

    I think people are just getting tired of big jackpot games with stratospheric odds.

    CAN'T WIN IF YOU'RE NOT IN

    A DOLLAR AND A DREAM (OR $2)

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      NY
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      Posted: December 26, 2014, 1:42 am - IP Logged

      Well, more of the new Powerball puzzle has been solved. If you have been following along, up until this point, I have established a reasonably-clear understanding of the changes, except for the multiplier distribution. Today I finally got this clarified.

      As I've said, each ticket prints "P-O-W-E-R" with 2X, 5X, etc under each letter. This is random, so the multipliers under each letter won't be the same on all tickets.

      I suspected, and have now seen documentation clearly indicating, that the lottery will indeed draw 1 letter. So whatever multiplier is under that letter on your ticket is what will apply to your winnings. I'm also pleased to report that I got the exact number of multiplier "balls" which will be selected from (previously I only had %). There are 39 total with just one 10X, one 5X, three 4X, ten 3X, and twenty-four 2X. So good luck getting that 10X! LOL

      Interestingly, they still call the multiplier "Power Play;" however, I believe that they retained this to show the matrix transition for the rules amendment. At the moment only one state refers to the new multiplier by this, though. I can also [again] confirm that the Power Up (tentative) add-on wager is a completely separate Powerball drawing. This information is recent enough for me to be comfortable with it, but as I've said before, everything is subject to change.

      "There are 39 total with just one 10X, one 5X, three 4X, ten 3X, and twenty-four 2X."

      "the multipliers under each letter won't be the same on all tickets."

      Any chance that second sentence means they'll change for each drawing, rather than each ticket within a single drawing?

      If it's different on tickets within a single drawing it means there will be 4+1 tickets with a 10x P winning 5 times as much as 4+1 tickets with a 2x P. The overall payout may theoretically work out to the expected totals, but it just seems like a really screwy way to do it. It can't possibly make a player happy when they only win 20% as much as another player who played the exact same numbers. I'm thinking that scheme could only be the idea of somebody who was recently reassigned from their decision making position with the MMC game.

        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
        Happyland
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        Posted: December 26, 2014, 2:57 am - IP Logged

        "There are 39 total with just one 10X, one 5X, three 4X, ten 3X, and twenty-four 2X."

        "the multipliers under each letter won't be the same on all tickets."

        Any chance that second sentence means they'll change for each drawing, rather than each ticket within a single drawing?

        If it's different on tickets within a single drawing it means there will be 4+1 tickets with a 10x P winning 5 times as much as 4+1 tickets with a 2x P. The overall payout may theoretically work out to the expected totals, but it just seems like a really screwy way to do it. It can't possibly make a player happy when they only win 20% as much as another player who played the exact same numbers. I'm thinking that scheme could only be the idea of somebody who was recently reassigned from their decision making position with the MMC game.

        Any chance that second sentence means they'll change for each drawing, rather than each ticket within a single drawing?

        No, the distribution is random for every ticket. The lottery has provided an example of this, where they show 2 tickets with different multipliers under each letter for each ticket. This is controlled at the terminal just like a QP. I have a feeling this may have something to do with reaching the expected weighted payout faster. Previously, they would pay draw to draw at the same fixed multiplier. Understandably this liability can be simultaneously large when i.e. 5X gets picked. Then it takes longer (multiple draws) to balance out. So now, with everyone playing random multipliers every drawing, it should actually balance out right away. Or at least most of the "lump sum" risk should be diversified, and this is important since the multiplier is expanding to the wider playing population, instead of the niche Power Play.

        As far as making the player happy, I can see how they may find it unfair someone wins more than them, but the reverse is also possible. They are guaranteed to match "a" multiplier, which is more than they're getting under the current base game. They just don't know which letter and which multiplier they will get to apply. The random aspect could potentially make it exciting since wins will never be the same size (albeit most will be 2X; cue whining from the where's-the-10X crowd).

        I'm thinking that scheme could only be the idea of somebody who was recently reassigned from their decision making position with the MMC game.

        Green laugh

        Technically, yes, all the same people develop these games. Of course, the Powerball matrix change was proposed long before the MMC game launched.

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2017: 0% (0 tickets)
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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          Wyomissing, PA
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          Posted: December 26, 2014, 4:07 am - IP Logged

          Thanks for the explanation. Now it makes sense why tickets will offer different multipliers - presumably, to better limit prize liability. Seems to me, lotteries are getting worried about the future of Powerball and Mega Millions. The per draw sales, even at the $100 million jackpot level, aren't all that great. Sales below a certain level make the games too risky to offer without changes, just as what happened with the failed Monopoly Millionaires Club game.

          To digress a bit, while PB & MM are more solid than MMC, the risk of early hits is still there. I've not done the math, but I'd suspect a string of early PB jackpot hits could easily put the game tens of millions of dollars into the red. That may be the real, driving reason for changing the odds to 1 in ~286 million - not to grow jackpots, but rather to better prevent early jackpot hits. While many players assume more difficult jackpot odds equal larger jackpots, that's not necessarily so, if player participation drops.

          Bottom line, lotteries appear scared. More simple games with better payout percentages would benefit players, and likely be easier to manage in regards to prize liability. Adding all these "extras" will confuse / upset many players leading to less sales for the multi-state games, and also in-state games too. Players have a lot of other gaming choices; not playing at all.

            Think's avatar - lightbulb
            Marquette, MI
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            Posted: December 27, 2014, 2:27 pm - IP Logged

            Thanks for the explanation. Now it makes sense why tickets will offer different multipliers - presumably, to better limit prize liability. Seems to me, lotteries are getting worried about the future of Powerball and Mega Millions. The per draw sales, even at the $100 million jackpot level, aren't all that great. Sales below a certain level make the games too risky to offer without changes, just as what happened with the failed Monopoly Millionaires Club game.

            To digress a bit, while PB & MM are more solid than MMC, the risk of early hits is still there. I've not done the math, but I'd suspect a string of early PB jackpot hits could easily put the game tens of millions of dollars into the red. That may be the real, driving reason for changing the odds to 1 in ~286 million - not to grow jackpots, but rather to better prevent early jackpot hits. While many players assume more difficult jackpot odds equal larger jackpots, that's not necessarily so, if player participation drops.

            Bottom line, lotteries appear scared. More simple games with better payout percentages would benefit players, and likely be easier to manage in regards to prize liability. Adding all these "extras" will confuse / upset many players leading to less sales for the multi-state games, and also in-state games too. Players have a lot of other gaming choices; not playing at all.

            Bottom line is there are too many games.  Michigan just added Poker Lotto, Monopoly Millionaires Club and Online games that you can play on the official Michigan web site.

            When the money goes to those games it does not go into the Jackpot games so you have to wait even longer for the Jackpots to build before you can jump in and start playing.

            With all the money spent for the online games on the web site and the club keno games at the terminals there is less money to go to the big jackpot games.  It is divide and conquer...so many games that nobody wins anything on any of them.

            The Club Keno has been going for 10 or 11 years in Michigan and nobody has ever won the top $20,000,000 prize!

            I have suggested to Michigan that they get rid of the Daily Keno, Classic 47 and Poker Lotto games and replace them with a

            5/36 1/27 $2 game with $1 going to a pari-mutuel prize structure and $1 going to a fixed prize structure so that when you win you get a fixed amount plus the pari-mutuel amount  so there would be a 2 Way Pay.

            Though I believe they don't want to consolidate and have fewer games...they probably want to add more games with higher odds so there are fewer and fewer winners going forward.

              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
              Happyland
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              Posted: January 22, 2015, 8:19 pm - IP Logged

              I recently came across an interesting report on the decline in Powerball (and Mega Millions) sales due to lackluster jackpots. This is pretty much what has been driving the push to change the Powerball matrix since early last year. Even with the matrix change in MM, its sales still suffer from jackpot fatigue.

              The document was posted on La Fleur's, here's the link if anybody wants to take a read: http://www.lafleurs.com/assets/pba.pdf (note: year on title slide is incorrect)

              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

              2017: 0% (0 tickets)
              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                Posted: January 22, 2015, 9:27 pm - IP Logged

                Wow. I forgot about the talk of changing the Powerball matrix and have not been coming to read the news here for weeks. After reading this whole thread I'm going to play the Powerball even less if at all. I'm a jackpot player who throws in a few bucks I have left in my wallet IF the cash jackpot is as high as the odds to win it. In 2014 this meant very few plays of the big jackpot games and going forward I expect even less plays. The odds have become utter crap and I prefer playing poker or blackjack at a casino.

                Deep down I want to see sales disappoint for PB like it did for MMC causing an end to these gimmicky games. A simple jackpot game should exist where I spend two or three minutes of my day on at most, I'll buy a ticket and later see if I won without having to think about the second drawing or "better" odds on lower prizes...

                  RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
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                  Posted: January 23, 2015, 1:39 am - IP Logged

                  I recently came across an interesting report on the decline in Powerball (and Mega Millions) sales due to lackluster jackpots. This is pretty much what has been driving the push to change the Powerball matrix since early last year. Even with the matrix change in MM, its sales still suffer from jackpot fatigue.

                  The document was posted on La Fleur's, here's the link if anybody wants to take a read: http://www.lafleurs.com/assets/pba.pdf (note: year on title slide is incorrect)

                  Report seems pointless. What do they mean by first half of FY15. It's only been a month.

                    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                    Happyland
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                    Posted: January 23, 2015, 7:33 am - IP Logged

                    Report seems pointless. What do they mean by first half of FY15. It's only been a month.

                    FY15 started October 1, 2014. "FY" stands for fiscal year.

                    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                    2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                      RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
                      NY
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                      Posted: January 23, 2015, 10:30 am - IP Logged

                      Ok. Thought they went by calendar year.

                        IPlayWeekly's avatar - avatarmoney
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                        Posted: January 23, 2015, 3:20 pm - IP Logged

                        This will be a disaster if it actually goes thru... I've already left Mega Millions and I'll do the same if they go thru with the new changes.  I just read the other day where powerball is struggling to attract new players.

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                          KCMO
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                          Posted: February 7, 2015, 7:04 pm - IP Logged

                          Basically this will push out much of the regular and semi-regular players with even lower odds. 

                           

                          What this WILL do is make insanely huge jackpots when they do come around. The record of 650mil hasn't been broken so looks like this may happen when the new odds take effect.

                            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                            Happyland
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                            Posted: February 15, 2015, 12:29 pm - IP Logged

                            Haven't updated this thread in awhile, but this is something I should amend:

                            Powerball Matrix Change - July 2015

                            Everyone was gung-ho about the April launch but I think MMC gave lotteries cold feet. So they are going to take more time to work on the revised PB. They are still tweaking the game, and it looks like it will be finalized by early summer. As far as I know, the core proposed matrix isn't changing, though. We'll see Disapprove

                            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                            2017: 0% (0 tickets)
                            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                              Posted: February 15, 2015, 12:55 pm - IP Logged

                              Haven't updated this thread in awhile, but this is something I should amend:

                              Powerball Matrix Change - July 2015

                              Everyone was gung-ho about the April launch but I think MMC gave lotteries cold feet. So they are going to take more time to work on the revised PB. They are still tweaking the game, and it looks like it will be finalized by early summer. As far as I know, the core proposed matrix isn't changing, though. We'll see Disapprove

                              Well I suppose that could be considered "good news" ... it gives everyone more time to still hit a jackpot with the current matrix with better odds !

                              ...

                                 
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