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Powerball Matrix Change - April 15, 2015

Topic closed. 227 replies. Last post 1 year ago by weshar75.

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Wyomissing, PA
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Posted: December 12, 2014, 2:11 pm - IP Logged

Are you sure there's really a separate secondary game? My take is it will simply be like Mega Millions with all secondary prizes, including the $1 million, eligible to be multiplied. Powerplay is renamed Power Up, and the multiplier levels have been adjusted with a 10 X being included. In short, a Mega Millions clone with some minor differences.

You wrote in another thread, lotteries are concerned about jackpot fatigue; seek out ways to limit jackpot growth. And yet this proposal will seemingly do the opposite, increasing the chance of an over-sized billion dollar jackpot. Powerball jackpot is difficult enough to win as it is. Now the second place prize will be nearly twice as difficult to hit as well - though to be fair, the current odds already extremely slim, so makes little practical difference.

Both PB and MM are worth playing in hopes of hitting the big one (which for many includes the 2nd tier prize), but worse the odds get, the less many will play. Personally, if that change in the matrix really does occur, I likely won't even bother with the game unless the jackpot is $250 million plus...

Presumably, many others will share similar sentiments, raising their play thresholds, resulting in jackpots growing at glacial pace much of the year until it gets high, and then all insanity for a few draws, if even that long, and then wham, all the excitement is gone and sales again stagnate for months. Doesn't seem like a winning formula - sure, the game will still make a bundle for the participating lotteries, but potentially bring in somewhat less revenue than it currently does.

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    Posted: December 12, 2014, 2:41 pm - IP Logged

    Are you sure there's really a separate secondary game? My take is it will simply be like Mega Millions with all secondary prizes, including the $1 million, eligible to be multiplied. Powerplay is renamed Power Up, and the multiplier levels have been adjusted with a 10 X being included. In short, a Mega Millions clone with some minor differences.

    You wrote in another thread, lotteries are concerned about jackpot fatigue; seek out ways to limit jackpot growth. And yet this proposal will seemingly do the opposite, increasing the chance of an over-sized billion dollar jackpot. Powerball jackpot is difficult enough to win as it is. Now the second place prize will be nearly twice as difficult to hit as well - though to be fair, the current odds already extremely slim, so makes little practical difference.

    Both PB and MM are worth playing in hopes of hitting the big one (which for many includes the 2nd tier prize), but worse the odds get, the less many will play. Personally, if that change in the matrix really does occur, I likely won't even bother with the game unless the jackpot is $250 million plus...

    Presumably, many others will share similar sentiments, raising their play thresholds, resulting in jackpots growing at glacial pace much of the year until it gets high, and then all insanity for a few draws, if even that long, and then wham, all the excitement is gone and sales again stagnate for months. Doesn't seem like a winning formula - sure, the game will still make a bundle for the participating lotteries, but potentially bring in somewhat less revenue than it currently does.

    What are the starting jackpot and minimum rollover amounts?

     

    You will be correct, if the starting jackpot stays at $40M with $10M rollovers per drawing. They have to increase one or both to support those odds.

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      Posted: December 12, 2014, 2:46 pm - IP Logged

      I think there are a few threads about this and I recall posting back in April or so when I first found out that a matrix change was coming to Powerball. Well, I finally got the details. Yes, folks, a change is real and it is coming and it is ugly. Get ready to scream. Crazy

      Main points:

      • Tickets are staying $2.00
      • 5/66 + 1/32 matrix (yes, 1 in 285,981,696)
      • Multiplier from 2X to 10X
      • NO extra cost* for multiplier
      • Overall odds of 1 in 30

      I say worse because I did not expect them to take the jackpot odds to go that far.

      The rules I have are a draft and there is no mention of starting jackpot or minimum rollovers. I presume they remain the same.

      Early stages of analysis here so bear with me, but that is the story! Thumbs Up

      *Currently verifying, but sounds right given the drastic change in odds.

      Match TierBase Odds (1:X)Base PrizeMultiplier "2" (min.)Multiplier "3"Multiplier "4"Multiplier "5"Multiplier "10"
      5 of 5 + PB285,981,696.00JackpotJackpotJackpotJackpotJackpotJackpot
      5 of 59,225,216.00$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
      4 of 5 + PB937,644.90$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$100,000
      4 of 530,246.61$100$200$300$400$500$1,000
      3 of 5 + PB15,627.42$100$200$300$400$500$1,000
      3 of 5504.11$7$14$21$28$35$70
      2 of 5 + PB794.61$7$14$21$28$35$70
      1 + PB109.60$2$4$6$8$10$20
      PB48.07$2$4$6$8$10$20
      Overall30.06- -----

      "The rules I have are a draft and there is no mention of starting jackpot or minimum rollovers. I presume they remain the same."

       

      How about a $100M starting jackpot with $10M minimum rollovers?

       

      The new matrix change does not fit a $40M starting jackpot with $10M minimum rollovers per drawing. Mega Millions increased both the starting jackpot and minimum rollovers to $15M/$5M.

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        Posted: December 12, 2014, 2:48 pm - IP Logged

        Yes, I am nearly 100% certain it has a separate drawing. The rules clearly say, "The Power Up drawings shall be held twice each week on Wednesday and Saturday evenings immediately following the Powerball drawing." This is supported by the fact that Power Up has separate base prizes, i.e. first prize of $10 million. It also somewhat explains why the Power Up feature was drafted in a completely separate document from the base game.

        I crunched some math on the change and it definitely isn't good, regardless if you are a base player or PowerPlay/PowerUp player. The weighted multiplier has actually reduced about 11 points, which means that "10X" is only half as valuable as the "5X" in the current matrix.

        Here's an example of payout per dollar, using cash jackpot of $24 million:

        OLD matrix, base game — 24.87%

        NEW matrix, base game — 14.76%

        OLD matrix, base w/PP — 33.04%

        NEW matrix, base w/PU — 32.33%

        Based on this information, it is better to spend the extra $1 for Power Up as long as the cash jackpot is below $325.5 million or so. This is in contrast to the old matrix, which implies it is better to add Power Play as long as the cash jackpot is below $110 million. So from this I gather that they are nudging players to play $3.

        I am a little surprised they made the jackpot odds so high because as you say, this is more than likely going to get us a bigger jackpot. I have a feeling I am missing key information about this (possibly capping jackpot?), because at every lottery conference this year they did nothing but talk about avoiding big jackpots.

        I have no idea what the starting jackpots and rollovers will be at this time; the documents mention $40,000,000 in the licensing/payment section, which is why I am thinking that it won't change (however, this was regarding retailer commission for a specific lottery). But the rules do not explicitly give a minimum starting value or rollover....they simply state that it is left to MUSL's discretion. Hopefully I can get some clarification on this in the near future.

        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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          Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:06 pm - IP Logged

          Yes, I am nearly 100% certain it has a separate drawing. The rules clearly say, "The Power Up drawings shall be held twice each week on Wednesday and Saturday evenings immediately following the Powerball drawing." This is supported by the fact that Power Up has separate base prizes, i.e. first prize of $10 million. It also somewhat explains why the Power Up feature was drafted in a completely separate document from the base game.

          I crunched some math on the change and it definitely isn't good, regardless if you are a base player or PowerPlay/PowerUp player. The weighted multiplier has actually reduced about 11 points, which means that "10X" is only half as valuable as the "5X" in the current matrix.

          Here's an example of payout per dollar, using cash jackpot of $24 million:

          OLD matrix, base game — 24.87%

          NEW matrix, base game — 14.76%

          OLD matrix, base w/PP — 33.04%

          NEW matrix, base w/PU — 32.33%

          Based on this information, it is better to spend the extra $1 for Power Up as long as the cash jackpot is below $325.5 million or so. This is in contrast to the old matrix, which implies it is better to add Power Play as long as the cash jackpot is below $110 million. So from this I gather that they are nudging players to play $3.

          I am a little surprised they made the jackpot odds so high because as you say, this is more than likely going to get us a bigger jackpot. I have a feeling I am missing key information about this (possibly capping jackpot?), because at every lottery conference this year they did nothing but talk about avoiding big jackpots.

          I have no idea what the starting jackpots and rollovers will be at this time; the documents mention $40,000,000 in the licensing/payment section, which is why I am thinking that it won't change (however, this was regarding retailer commission for a specific lottery). But the rules do not explicitly give a minimum starting value or rollover....they simply state that it is left to MUSL's discretion. Hopefully I can get some clarification on this in the near future.

          "I have a feeling I am missing key information about this (possibly capping jackpot?), because at every lottery conference this year they did nothing but talk about avoiding big jackpots."

           

          BIGGER LOTTERY JACKPOTS=HIGHER LOTTERY SALES.

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            Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:12 pm - IP Logged

            By the way, in order to reach 50% base game payout, the cash jackpot would have to be about $200-225 million. Since the payout is considered the long-term average, the jackpot at this level would likewise be considered the average. An average cash jackpot of $200-225 million would be double the current theoretical average. This implies a potential average annuity of $500 million. Is it really possible they have accepted defeat and will allow a billion dollar jackpot?! Eek

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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              Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:23 pm - IP Logged

              By the way, in order to reach 50% base game payout, the cash jackpot would have to be about $200-225 million. Since the payout is considered the long-term average, the jackpot at this level would likewise be considered the average. An average cash jackpot of $200-225 million would be double the current theoretical average. This implies a potential average annuity of $500 million. Is it really possible they have accepted defeat and will allow a billion dollar jackpot?! Eek

              Why they do not want to see a $1 Billion jackpot?

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                Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:25 pm - IP Logged

                Why they do not want to see a $1 Billion jackpot?

                Because that doesn't correct the problem with jackpot fatigue.

                In their words, "What's next? $2 billion?"

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                  Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:29 pm - IP Logged

                  Because that doesn't correct the problem with jackpot fatigue.

                  In their words, "What's next? $2 billion?"

                  $100M Starting Jackpot/$10M Minimum Rollovers/$5 Per Ticket?

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                    Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:35 pm - IP Logged

                    Isn't the multiplier number already chosen right afterwards?  If so, presumably, the docs is referring to that draw procedure. The current Powerplay feature, in effect, already is a separate game in regards to the administration (ie. California doesn't offer it) and the accounting. I get the sense not much is really changing other than the odds getting much worse, and the multiplier part being adjusted.

                    My guess is they'll start jackpots at $50 million, and increase by the same guaranteed $10 million as now. If those numbers go much higher than that, I'd be surprised.

                    As for capping, not sure how they'd do that, though could do a roll-down. I suspect though, that will go over like a load of lead bricks ... many players won't like it, and will cut back on playing. PB / MM players, especially the loyal regulars along with the high rollers, want it all; no jackpot amount is too much. It's amazing sometimes when standing in line overhearing others speak of 40, 50, or even $100 million dollars not being enough. Greed has no limits.

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                      Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:38 pm - IP Logged

                      Ron, I think you're right and the more I think about it the more it makes sense.

                      MULTIPLIER UPDATE

                      I am again getting conflicting information about the multiplier.

                      New Hampshire says it's integrated into the game so that prizes from the third tier down are automatically multiplied (this could explain the unusual discrepancy between the base game and Power Up payout). However, as my update post above says, the rules say that the multiplier key applies to the Power Up add-on.

                      So what is likely is that the Power Up feature simply amplifies the base prizes, but this is problematic because it lists $10 million as the first prize (not the jackpot). This is why I feel it would be a separate drawing. I don't know, but that's the nature of these early stages LOL

                      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                        Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:44 pm - IP Logged

                        Ron, I think you're right and the more I think about it the more it makes sense.

                        MULTIPLIER UPDATE

                        I am again getting conflicting information about the multiplier.

                        New Hampshire says it's integrated into the game so that prizes from the third tier down are automatically multiplied (this could explain the unusual discrepancy between the base game and Power Up payout). However, as my update post above says, the rules say that the multiplier key applies to the Power Up add-on.

                        So what is likely is that the Power Up feature simply amplifies the base prizes, but this is problematic because it lists $10 million as the first prize (not the jackpot). This is why I feel it would be a separate drawing. I don't know, but that's the nature of these early stages LOL

                        You are the best at building lottery SUSPENSE for new games. Monopoly Millionaires' Club? Thanks for the info anyway.LOL

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                          Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:51 pm - IP Logged

                          You are the best at building lottery SUSPENSE for new games. Monopoly Millionaires' Club? Thanks for the info anyway.LOL

                          Haha! I try Cheers

                          Well, I finally got a reliable source of information (lottery director) who explained the change a little more clearly.

                          • "Big" jackpots
                          • Multiplier IS included with every $2 ticket
                          • Power Up is like old PowerPlay; says top prize is $10 million (no mention of jackpot so assume it treated separately)

                          With this in mind, then I should correct the example scenario of $24 million cash jackpot:

                          • OLD matrix, base game — 24.87%
                          • NEW matrix, base game — 23.47%
                          • OLD matrix, base w/PP — 33.04%
                          • NEW matrix, base w/PU — 32.33%

                          This implies you should add Power Up as long as the jackpot is below $176 million, which also happens to be the 50% threshold. That is about $60 million higher than the current theoretical, so we should expect the average jackpot to start being about 50% higher. It still wouldn't be out of the question to see a $1 billion jackpot though.

                          Thanks to Ron for getting me to think through this further, it makes a lot more sense with Power Up being an add-on but not completely different drawing....it would be cost prohibitive and confusing. Hearing it straight from the director made it really click for me. What can I say though, I get confused myself over this stuff sometimes LOL

                          If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                          If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                          2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                          P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                            Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:58 pm - IP Logged

                            Haha! I try Cheers

                            Well, I finally got a reliable source of information (lottery director) who explained the change a little more clearly.

                            • "Big" jackpots
                            • Multiplier IS included with every $2 ticket
                            • Power Up is like old PowerPlay; says top prize is $10 million (no mention of jackpot so assume it treated separately)

                            With this in mind, then I should correct the example scenario of $24 million cash jackpot:

                            • OLD matrix, base game — 24.87%
                            • NEW matrix, base game — 23.47%
                            • OLD matrix, base w/PP — 33.04%
                            • NEW matrix, base w/PU — 32.33%

                            This implies you should add Power Up as long as the jackpot is below $176 million, which also happens to be the 50% threshold. That is about $60 million higher than the current theoretical, so we should expect the average jackpot to start being about 50% higher. It still wouldn't be out of the question to see a $1 billion jackpot though.

                            Thanks to Ron for getting me to think through this further, it makes a lot more sense with Power Up being an add-on but not completely different drawing....it would be cost prohibitive and confusing. Hearing it straight from the director made it really click for me. What can I say though, I get confused myself over this stuff sometimes LOL

                            The New Powerball lottery game puzzle is almost complete.

                            Starting jackpot?

                            $60M/$10M minimum rollovers is my guess.LOL

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                              Posted: December 12, 2014, 5:29 pm - IP Logged

                              The New Powerball lottery game puzzle is almost complete.

                              Starting jackpot?

                              $60M/$10M minimum rollovers is my guess.LOL

                              They're actually decreasing the portion of sales that go towards the jackpot, so I doubt it will increase that much. This is why I think it is staying the same. They have to be able to fund the jackpot and setting minimum starting/rollover points higher increases the liability during low-jackpot cycles.

                              I have heard from yet another lottery that the Power Up is a completely separate drawing, similar to the second drawing in Monopoly, which would use your numbers from the primary drawing. Yes, I understand that makes the game more complex and it makes zero sense (the lottery I heard from agrees).

                              The director* I mentioned above never came out and explicitly said that the PU is/not separate drawing, just that it has its own top prize and lower prizes. From a player payout perspective I don't think it really matters. It will increase variance to have separate drawings but the long-term return will be additive and therefore the same. I suppose from a marketing standpoint it could be lucrative, as a player has 2 chances to win with a multiplier (base draw, followed by second draw).

                              MUSL has been making changes to the proposal even as recently as last week, so I think I won't get the definitive word on this until January. If the MMC experience has taught them anything, hopefully it's that players don't want a confusing game. At this point though, we have a general idea of what the main changes will be. Thumbs Up

                               

                              *I tend to give more weighting to director's info since he/she actually attends MUSL meetings. Commission-sourced info is less detailed and usually vague.

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                                 
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