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Powerball Matrix Change - April 15, 2015

Topic closed. 227 replies. Last post 1 year ago by weshar75.

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LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
Happyland
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September 1, 2013
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Posted: December 12, 2014, 1:09 am - IP Logged

I think there are a few threads about this and I recall posting back in April or so when I first found out that a matrix change was coming to Powerball. Well, I finally got the details. Yes, folks, a change is real and it is coming and it is ugly. Get ready to scream. Crazy

Main points:

  • Tickets are staying $2.00
  • 5/66 + 1/32 matrix (yes, 1 in 285,981,696)
  • Multiplier from 2X to 10X
  • NO extra cost* for multiplier
  • Overall odds of 1 in 30

I say worse because I did not expect them to take the jackpot odds to go that far.

The rules I have are a draft and there is no mention of starting jackpot or minimum rollovers. I presume they remain the same.

Early stages of analysis here so bear with me, but that is the story! Thumbs Up

*Currently verifying, but sounds right given the drastic change in odds.

Match TierBase Odds (1:X)Base PrizeMultiplier "2" (min.)Multiplier "3"Multiplier "4"Multiplier "5"Multiplier "10"
5 of 5 + PB285,981,696.00JackpotJackpotJackpotJackpotJackpotJackpot
5 of 59,225,216.00$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
4 of 5 + PB937,644.90$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$100,000
4 of 530,246.61$100$200$300$400$500$1,000
3 of 5 + PB15,627.42$100$200$300$400$500$1,000
3 of 5504.11$7$14$21$28$35$70
2 of 5 + PB794.61$7$14$21$28$35$70
1 + PB109.60$2$4$6$8$10$20
PB48.07$2$4$6$8$10$20
Overall30.06- -----

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

    Coin Toss's avatar - shape barbed.jpg
    Zeta Reticuli Star System
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    Posted: December 12, 2014, 1:22 am - IP Logged

    Well, this;

    Main points:
    �Tickets are staying $2.00
    �5/66 + 1/32 matrix (yes, 1 in 285,981,696)
    �Multiplier from 2X to 10X
    �NO extra cost for multiplier

    �Overall odds of 1 in 30

    sounds better than Mega Millions, especially for those playing for 5 + 1.

    Both games are noting but a dream.

    Those who run the lotteries love it when players look for consistency in something that's designed not to have any.

    Lep

    There is one and only one 'proven' system, and that is to book the action. No matter the game, let the players pick their own losers.

      RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
      NY
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      Posted: December 12, 2014, 1:24 am - IP Logged
      • Multiplier from 2X to 10X
      • NO extra cost for multiplier

      I like these two changes. Usually aim for the lower tier prizes anyways.

        ThatScaryChick's avatar - x1MqPuM
        Idaho
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        Posted: December 12, 2014, 1:26 am - IP Logged
        • Multiplier from 2X to 10X
        • NO extra cost for multiplier

        I like these two changes. Usually aim for the lower tier prizes anyways.

        Yeah having the other prizes multiplied up to 10 without an extra dollar is nice. But the game odds are crazy...although they already are so.

        "No one remembers the person who almost climbed the mountain, only the person who eventually gets to the top."

          LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
          Happyland
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          Posted: December 12, 2014, 1:45 am - IP Logged

          New tickets should be going on sale April 12th.

          Things changing:

          • Elimination of PowerPlay feature
          • Addition of new $1 "Power Up" feature (new add-on wager with top prize of $10 million)
          • Replacing PP with a "POWER" multiplier key, where each letter represents a multiplier*
          • Prize allocation to jackpot and 2nd prize reduced; lower prizes increased in allocation

          Things not changing:

          • 50% payout
          • Advance Play
          • Wednesday & Saturday
          • Lump sum (cash) option
          • 30-year graduated annuity

           *This is slightly vague and confusing since I only have draft rules and not all the draw procedures. Each letter represents a multiplier but it is random, so in other words "P" could be 2X or 3X. I am assuming the entire "POWER" key will be printed on each ticket and then MUSL draws a letter or something, but I will have to get back to you guys about that. Here is the probability weighting table for the multipliers:

          Multiplier:10X5X4X3X2X
          Weight:2.56%2.56%7.69%25.64%61.54%

          Basically, 10X will show up as often as 5X, and 2X will show up most often.

           

          All information subject to change, as these are draft rules and we have over 4 months to go.

          P.S. Nothing I am posting is embargoed....Virginia Lottery has already notified retailers.

          If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
          If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

          2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
          P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

            LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
            Happyland
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            Posted: December 12, 2014, 2:06 am - IP Logged

            Information about new "Power Up" option (replaces PowerPlay):

            • Essentially a second-chance/repeat drawing
            • Add-on for $1 extra per board, must apply to ALL boards
            • Uses same multiplier as base game (same odds of winning)
            • $10 million CASH-only first prize (all other prizes cash too)
            Match TierBase PrizeMultiplier "2" (min.)Multiplier "3"Multiplier "4"Multiplier "5"Multiplier "10"
            5 of 5 + PB$10,000,000$10,000,000$10,000,000$10,000,000$10,000,000$10,000,000
            5 of 5$500,000$500,000$500,000$500,000$500,000$500,000
            4 of 5 + PB$15,000$30,000$45,000$60,000$75,000$150,000
            4 of 5$150$300$450$600$750$1,500
            3 of 5 + PB$150$300$450$600$750$1,500
            3 of 5$10$20$30$40$50$100
            2 of 5 + PB$10$20$30$40$50$100
            1 + PB$3$6$9$12$15$30
            PB$3$6$9$12$15$30

            It is my understanding that this is completely separate from the regular Powerball game. The Power Up drawing occurs after the base drawing.

            If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
            If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

            2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
            P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: December 12, 2014, 2:08 am - IP Logged

              Overall odds are a little better but that $2 per ticket when you can get the same odds for the jackpot with better over all odds with MM for $1 still doesn't make it competitive with MM.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                Happyland
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                Posted: December 12, 2014, 2:38 am - IP Logged

                IMPORTANT CORRECTION*

                False alarm about free multiplier. It is included on every ticket but only applies if you purchase the "Power Up" option. TECHNICALLY NOT FREE. In other words, this add-on allows you to win using the multiplier in both the base drawing and the secondary one. Should have known it was too good to be true!

                I blame my fast fingers and the fact that they separated the rule documents for whatever reason. In the base document it says the multiplier is included with no mention of extra cost. But I got clear confirmation that it is only activated if you purchase the Power Up feature (this is bound to confuse players, I imagine).

                Guess now we can go back to calling it terrible. LOL

                Not only did they worsen the jackpot odds, but they also lowered the 2 most probable base prizes. Notice they're also getting rid of the $2 million multiplied second prize, while making the odds nearly twice as bad. If I get the time I will try to go through and do a full analysis this weekend.

                 

                *Again, everything subject to change but the secondary rules clearly state, "A Multiplier Key is included on each Powerball ticket generated. The multiplier key on the Powerball ticket applies to the Power Up wager." Accept my apologies if I make any misinformed comments between now and the official matrix change.

                If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                  Avatar
                  California
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                  April 7, 2013
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                  Posted: December 12, 2014, 2:55 am - IP Logged

                  I think there are a few threads about this and I recall posting back in April or so when I first found out that a matrix change was coming to Powerball. Well, I finally got the details. Yes, folks, a change is real and it is coming and it is ugly. Get ready to scream. Crazy

                  Main points:

                  • Tickets are staying $2.00
                  • 5/66 + 1/32 matrix (yes, 1 in 285,981,696)
                  • Multiplier from 2X to 10X
                  • NO extra cost* for multiplier
                  • Overall odds of 1 in 30

                  I say worse because I did not expect them to take the jackpot odds to go that far.

                  The rules I have are a draft and there is no mention of starting jackpot or minimum rollovers. I presume they remain the same.

                  Early stages of analysis here so bear with me, but that is the story! Thumbs Up

                  *Currently verifying, but sounds right given the drastic change in odds.

                  Match TierBase Odds (1:X)Base PrizeMultiplier "2" (min.)Multiplier "3"Multiplier "4"Multiplier "5"Multiplier "10"
                  5 of 5 + PB285,981,696.00JackpotJackpotJackpotJackpotJackpotJackpot
                  5 of 59,225,216.00$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000$1,000,000
                  4 of 5 + PB937,644.90$10,000$20,000$30,000$40,000$50,000$100,000
                  4 of 530,246.61$100$200$300$400$500$1,000
                  3 of 5 + PB15,627.42$100$200$300$400$500$1,000
                  3 of 5504.11$7$14$21$28$35$70
                  2 of 5 + PB794.61$7$14$21$28$35$70
                  1 + PB109.60$2$4$6$8$10$20
                  PB48.07$2$4$6$8$10$20
                  Overall30.06- -----

                  "If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the payoff does."

                  Some people like to play on a consistent basis. I've seen the PB jackpot won at the 40-60 million range quite a few times. There are people who are die hard players who will play the game no matter what size the jackpot is.

                  "If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?"

                  If I could know with 100 percent certainty I will never win a jackpot in my lifetime, then I would stop playing. The thing is, I can't know with 100 percent certainty I will never win a jackpot in my lifetime. Trying to beat 1 in 286 million odds is ridiculous but you and I have beat odds that have been far worse. Do you know the odds of a person being born? It's far worse than PB odds when you look at all the possible sperm/egg combinations. At the end of the day it's still $2 per ticket so I'll buy one or two tickets just to be in the game. 

                  With the 1 in 286 million odds and tickets at $2, I would be very surprised if PB does not break MM's $656 million record. 

                    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                    Happyland
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                    Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:09 am - IP Logged

                    "If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the payoff does."

                    Some people like to play on a consistent basis. I've seen the PB jackpot won at the 40-60 million range quite a few times. There are people who are die hard players who will play the game no matter what size the jackpot is.

                    "If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?"

                    If I could know with 100 percent certainty I will never win a jackpot in my lifetime, then I would stop playing. The thing is, I can't know with 100 percent certainty I will never win a jackpot in my lifetime. Trying to beat 1 in 286 million odds is ridiculous but you and I have beat odds that have been far worse. Do you know the odds of a person being born? It's far worse than PB odds when you look at all the possible sperm/egg combinations. At the end of the day it's still $2 per ticket so I'll buy one or two tickets just to be in the game. 

                    With the 1 in 286 million odds and tickets at $2, I would be very surprised if PB does not break MM's $656 million record. 

                    My sig garners comments from time to time Wink

                    The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.

                    As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.

                    Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.

                    I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.

                    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                      Posted: December 12, 2014, 3:44 am - IP Logged

                      My sig garners comments from time to time Wink

                      The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.

                      As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.

                      Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.

                      I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.

                      Fair enough. I can see why most people would be indifferent to the smaller jackpots but look at this example: http://www.powerball.com/powerball/winners/2014/071914CA_Long.shtml

                      It's about a guy who won a 60 mil jackpot, which is a smaller jackpot by PB standards. Imagine if he had thought, I'm not going to play this drawing, I'll wait until the jackpot rolls to 100 mil, who knows maybe he would not have won. For me one of two tickets is doable so I play consistently. That's how I see it, but play the game anyway you want.

                        Taurus$'s avatar - Lottery-043.jpg
                        Ft. Washington, MD
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                        Posted: December 12, 2014, 10:16 am - IP Logged

                        My sig garners comments from time to time Wink

                        The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.

                        As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.

                        Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.

                        I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.

                        I look at your sig garners comments from time to time. They do make me think because they are philosophical in content. You see i don't never say i will win a jackpot, i just say these numbers look kinda good or not and i might pull it off but otherwise i know i already lost. To me PB /MM are both robbery. You play 10 bucks and you get back 2 bucks? Ha! That looks like a bad return. So i don't play all the time. I don't care what size the jackpot is. If i can afford to play at the time and it feels ok i will play but if not i just ignore them. I am going to be trying my luck on the the other lower jackpot games like multimatch  or VA moneyball. or decades for dollars that don't have those long odds as pb/mm. I just don't bet the farm on every game. If i see numbers i like and could have played and they turn up, i would say those are numbers i could have done and move on. Or somebody hit it well i could've played but it wasn't the right time for me. But hey life goes on. So i don't stress myself out over it. Wink You say most people will never win a jackpot true that, but then again, you have got to wonder about the folks who have struck it. 212 big jackpot winners since 1997. Out of billions of tickets. How did they get chosen?  So its <snip>ed if you or don't. If you don't try.

                        T$

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                          NEW YORK
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                          Posted: December 12, 2014, 11:12 am - IP Logged

                          My sig garners comments from time to time Wink

                          The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.

                          As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.

                          Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.

                          I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.

                          Turning $2 into $100 Million is better than turning $2 into $40 Million.

                          US Flag

                          PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

                            savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
                            adelaide sa
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                            Posted: December 12, 2014, 1:16 pm - IP Logged

                            so if you knew you where going to skip a game  win waiting for a higher win , %100 knew. just not what the game win you skipped was valued at. i dont know how, lady luck visits you in a hallucinations or something.   maybe she says, " if you skip playing a pb game, i will make that your numbers come up THAT draw that you skipped.  would you still  think  meeeh $0 mill aint worth it! especially with taxes and all the cuts i'll take if i got the lump sum?

                            2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

                            keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

                              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                              Happyland
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                              Posted: December 12, 2014, 1:37 pm - IP Logged

                              so if you knew you where going to skip a game  win waiting for a higher win , %100 knew. just not what the game win you skipped was valued at. i dont know how, lady luck visits you in a hallucinations or something.   maybe she says, " if you skip playing a pb game, i will make that your numbers come up THAT draw that you skipped.  would you still  think  meeeh $0 mill aint worth it! especially with taxes and all the cuts i'll take if i got the lump sum?

                              Well, hypothetically, if you knew without a doubt that you would win the next drawing, of course you would play regardless the size of the prize.

                              This is because your probability of winning would be 1.

                              Example of expected value calculation: (-2 * 0) + (1,000,000 * 1) = 1,000,000

                              No matter what, your expected outcome is positive so logicially you wouldn't care the size of the prize.

                              The issue is that you cannot know that you will win the next drawing. For every hallucination that says you will and is correct, there's many more that are wrong. Look at the forums where people post their dreams and numbers from dreams. Now how many actually turn out correct and end up getting them a jackpot? Again, if your "timeline" so to speak is destined to include winning a jackpot, it doesn't matter when or how you choose to play. I choose to play where most rewarding.

                              But we're getting a little OT here, this thread is about the pending Powerball change Big Grin

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                                 
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