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Powerball Matrix Change - April 15, 2015

Topic closed. 227 replies. Last post 1 year ago by weshar75.

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Posted: December 13, 2014, 8:28 pm - IP Logged

So the 2nd tier prize does not change?  I always play for it.  They ruined MM and now PB.

Correct. 2nd tier doesn't change and multiplier doesn't kick in until 3rd tier and down. Since my understanding is that the multiplier is included at no additional cost, here is a table showing the difference in EV for old matrix vs. new matrix (base). A positive % means the value increased (good), while negative is vice versa (bad). This is the simplest way to compare odds and prize value between different matrixes.

MatchChange in EV
5 of 5 + PB*(38.73%)
5 of 5(44.14%)
4 of 5 + PB86.34%
4 of 569.90%
3 of 5 + PB110.96%
3 of 592.34%
2 of 5 + PB139.35%
1 of 5 + PB36.10%
PB Only55.16%
Overall*(21.05%)

*Jackpot used was $100 million cash; the negative percentage extends as jackpots grow higher, since the odds of winning are significantly worse.

As you can see, even though the odds are worse across the board, because they increased the lower prizes' multiplier-weighted payout, those levels are actually better. I should also mention that the game's overall variance has decreased by nearly half...which is good. The bad news is obviously the jackpot and 2nd prize are less valuable. While most players will probably be happy that the most probable matches (low-tier) are more valuable, in general the top 2 prizes actually contribute the most value to the game. Therefore, the game itself is still worse off (ignoring the improved overall odds).

P.S. Don't get too excited by "139.35%" increase etc. We're talking an improvement from like half a cent to one whole cent. LOL

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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    NEW YORK
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    Posted: December 13, 2014, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

    Someone gets it......really it boils down to payouts. Massachusetts lottery is pretty much the only one who gets it. They (industry people) asked Beth (director), "How are you doing so well?" She looked on the spot and awkward because she knew she was giving them an answer they didn't want to hear...."raised payouts." 

    Green laugh

    Anyway, I am back to being nearly 100% certain that the Power Up is a separate drawing. Rules clearly state, "Winning Power Up is achieved only when the following combinations of numbers selected by the player match, in any order, the five plus one winning numbers drawn in the Power Up drawing conducted by MUSL." (it proceeds to name the winning tiers)

    There is also a section in the introduction which says, "....allows players the option to pay an additional one dollar ($1) for a chance to win in the subsequent drawing held specifically for Power Up."

    It also gives guidelines for equipment and says all Power Up drawings are open to the public, which leads me to believe it will be ball drawn. Have been getting the vibe it is separate, and the fact that they are calling the $10 million a top prize too.

    I want it not to be true because that kind of complexity would make it MMC: Part 2, a PR disaster as you say. I secretly hope that some of the changes considered recently included dumping this idea for a second drawing after the new matrix and just making it a higher multiplier or something. Since the PB change was proposed before MMC launched, hopefully someone will stand up and say, "MMC didn't go so well, so let's re-evaluate this."

    SGI is the one who came up with the game btw (heard some witch-hunters in the other thread demanding responsible heads) LOL

    Increasing the lottery payouts is the way to go. We also want see bigger lottery jackpots which means higher lottery sales. Capping lottery jackpots is against free markets capitalism.

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      Posted: December 13, 2014, 9:05 pm - IP Logged

      Correct. 2nd tier doesn't change and multiplier doesn't kick in until 3rd tier and down. Since my understanding is that the multiplier is included at no additional cost, here is a table showing the difference in EV for old matrix vs. new matrix (base). A positive % means the value increased (good), while negative is vice versa (bad). This is the simplest way to compare odds and prize value between different matrixes.

      MatchChange in EV
      5 of 5 + PB*(38.73%)
      5 of 5(44.14%)
      4 of 5 + PB86.34%
      4 of 569.90%
      3 of 5 + PB110.96%
      3 of 592.34%
      2 of 5 + PB139.35%
      1 of 5 + PB36.10%
      PB Only55.16%
      Overall*(21.05%)

      *Jackpot used was $100 million cash; the negative percentage extends as jackpots grow higher, since the odds of winning are significantly worse.

      As you can see, even though the odds are worse across the board, because they increased the lower prizes' multiplier-weighted payout, those levels are actually better. I should also mention that the game's overall variance has decreased by nearly half...which is good. The bad news is obviously the jackpot and 2nd prize are less valuable. While most players will probably be happy that the most probable matches (low-tier) are more valuable, in general the top 2 prizes actually contribute the most value to the game. Therefore, the game itself is still worse off (ignoring the improved overall odds).

      P.S. Don't get too excited by "139.35%" increase etc. We're talking an improvement from like half a cent to one whole cent. LOL

      Lottery players like to play for life changing jackpots, people that like to play for bigger jackpots are not interested in higher lower tier prizes. I hope that this game does not fail like the Monopoly Millionaires' Club lottery game.

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      PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

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        Posted: December 13, 2014, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

        My sig garners comments from time to time Wink

        The point of the first statement is that because the odds are so astronomical and in all likelihood you will never win or even come close to winning, if you are going to bother playing then it might as well be when the jackpot is relatively high. In no way does jackpot-picking improve your odds, just the result in the infinitesimally-likely event that you do hit the jackpot. And as I've shown in posts long ago, playing multiple draws is actually mathematically, very slightly worse than playing multiple tickets in one draw. So not only do you have higher probability of winning by playing the same less often, but you can also potentially get a higher payoff.

        As far as the second statement, it's mostly something for people to reflect on. Obviously if you know you aren't going to win then you wouldn't play....you would throw your money at something you think or know you will win/excel at. But see, people "know" they will win the lottery (when in reality they don't), or more accurately they know they can win the lottery, so in their mind, all the more reason to play. As you say, we've already beaten the odds.

        Personally, I have nothing against people who play every draw or really believe they will hit the jackpot. Everyone has their own way of playing the lottery. I just don't participate in draw lotteries frequently because they are simply the worst at payoffs for odds. I mean, the new PB matrix will reduce the payout by ~15% on a base bet for any given jackpot. Yet people will still play, ignoring the return and the ever-growing odds, because they want that slither chance of hitting the big one.

        I look at it like, "If you're going to win, you will win. And there's nothing you can do to speed up or change that future." That's why I am indifferent to low jackpots.

        BIGGER LOTTERY JACKPOTS=HIGHER LOTTERY SALES.

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        PLAY THE LOTTERY SOMEDAY-IT IS OKAY TO DREAM!

          RedStang's avatar - tallman zps6gf4inoc.jpg
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          Posted: December 13, 2014, 11:35 pm - IP Logged

          BIGGER LOTTERY JACKPOTS=HIGHER LOTTERY SALES.

          They can only increase sales by making the games almost impossible to win. This year, MM only had two jackpots over 300mill and PB had 1 over 300mill. Players don't get excited until it's at least 400mill.

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            Posted: December 14, 2014, 9:12 am - IP Logged

            They can only increase sales by making the games almost impossible to win. This year, MM only had two jackpots over 300mill and PB had 1 over 300mill. Players don't get excited until it's at least 400mill.

            It only takes Powerball 6 drawings to reach $100M annuity because of the $2 ticket price. Powerball sales increase whenever the jackpot gets to $100M annuity, and it happens every other month.

             

            The lottery will increase payouts and tickets prices to $5 eventually in order to keep up with inflation.

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              Posted: December 14, 2014, 12:51 pm - IP Logged

              It only takes Powerball 6 drawings to reach $100M annuity because of the $2 ticket price. Powerball sales increase whenever the jackpot gets to $100M annuity, and it happens every other month.

               

              The lottery will increase payouts and tickets prices to $5 eventually in order to keep up with inflation.

              Yup, the ticket prices are going to have to go up so the prizes can go up.  In order for that to happen wages have to go up.  While prices have gone up wages have not.

              Peak Minimum wage (1968) purchasing power is currently at $16.38 per hour (2014).  I am not saying we have to raise wages that much but Minimum should be at least $10.25 per hour to keep pace with inflation that has ALREADY occurred.

              Second prize should be at least $3,500,000.

              I have suggested to PB and MM for years now to have a bigaplier and a smallaplier so the player can put down an extra dollar or two on the players choice of going for a multiplied second (and maybe third prize) and multiplied smaller prizes per PLAYER choice.

              $1 for the bigaplier and $1 for the smallaplier...you pick one, both or none.

              Thus the PB ticket would cost $2, $3 or $4 depending on how YOU want to play it.

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                Posted: December 14, 2014, 8:33 pm - IP Logged

                Hi LottoMetro,

                Thanks so much for trying to explain the new changes in Powerball. I had no idea they were changing this game. It's hard enough now with the matrix the way it is and it will be soooo much harder after the change to 66 numbers. One of the reasons I rarely play Mega Millions was because of the matrix change to 75 numbers. I always play Powerball with the Powerplay for the extra dollar. My hope is to win second place for the 2 million. Now it makes no sense to ever spend the extra dollar since 2nd place would only be 500,000 and getting 5 numbers with the powerball would be 10 million. This is truly depressing. After budgeting myself for over a year now I'm not sure what draw game to play anymore when this change happens. The lottery just loves making it impossible for people to win, yet they have no problem taking our money.

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: December 14, 2014, 11:40 pm - IP Logged

                  Hi LottoMetro,

                  Thanks so much for trying to explain the new changes in Powerball. I had no idea they were changing this game. It's hard enough now with the matrix the way it is and it will be soooo much harder after the change to 66 numbers. One of the reasons I rarely play Mega Millions was because of the matrix change to 75 numbers. I always play Powerball with the Powerplay for the extra dollar. My hope is to win second place for the 2 million. Now it makes no sense to ever spend the extra dollar since 2nd place would only be 500,000 and getting 5 numbers with the powerball would be 10 million. This is truly depressing. After budgeting myself for over a year now I'm not sure what draw game to play anymore when this change happens. The lottery just loves making it impossible for people to win, yet they have no problem taking our money.

                  "It's hard enough now with the matrix the way it is"

                  That's an understatement considering the odds against matching 5 + 0 are now 5,153,633 to 1. The PB jackpot will eventually reach a buying frenzy starting amount with probably one winning ticket. Wonder what would happen if most of the players waited until the frenzy starts; will states like Texas bail out like they did with the Monopoly game?

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                    Posted: December 15, 2014, 6:30 am - IP Logged

                    I only play games that gives returns for me and then some for a rainy day but not games that vhanges matrix to generate more money for the house. When too many people winning the house will change their rules to reflect the percentage and make it so that winning cant easy. Of course they find ways to attract players by getting the jackpot higher. I play same numbers on these games and just play and forget.

                    playing what can be afforded...spend half of what was reclaimed.

                      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
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                      Posted: December 15, 2014, 8:57 am - IP Logged

                      Hi LottoMetro,

                      Thanks so much for trying to explain the new changes in Powerball. I had no idea they were changing this game. It's hard enough now with the matrix the way it is and it will be soooo much harder after the change to 66 numbers. One of the reasons I rarely play Mega Millions was because of the matrix change to 75 numbers. I always play Powerball with the Powerplay for the extra dollar. My hope is to win second place for the 2 million. Now it makes no sense to ever spend the extra dollar since 2nd place would only be 500,000 and getting 5 numbers with the powerball would be 10 million. This is truly depressing. After budgeting myself for over a year now I'm not sure what draw game to play anymore when this change happens. The lottery just loves making it impossible for people to win, yet they have no problem taking our money.

                      Glad I could share! Thumbs Up

                      Now it makes no sense to ever spend the extra dollar since 2nd place would only be 500,000 and getting 5 numbers with the powerball would be 10 million.

                      At this point I still believe that Power Up will be a separate drawing; this reconciles some of the information I heard at the conference this year regarding "increasing the matrix and adding a second-chance element." So in that case, there would be the main drawing and even if you lose, it is possible you could win the second (PU) drawing. So it wouldn't be like PU actually caps your winnings on the total ticket. If my understanding of it is correct, it could prove valuable, although it kinda makes zero sense. As you say, second prize in PU is only $500K, which is less than the base game yet has the same odds of winning. Just like the confused players in MMC, we would have confused players wondering why their PU prize is less than the prize in the base game. I am trying to find more updated information but at this point all I have is draft documents and hearsay from NASPL. A few lotteries have already expressed that the PB change could be another MMC fail so it is possible that some of what I have presented here may change by April. I should know more for sure in January.

                      The great thing about these changes though, is that ultimately, players speak with their dollars. It might not happen right away but eventually lotteries will learn.

                      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                        LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
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                        Posted: December 16, 2014, 2:17 am - IP Logged

                        Finally! A clear verification of whether PU is separate or not.

                        According to Washington lottery:

                        MUSL is also proposing a new add-on draw game which will replace the “Powerplay” feature of the original game. The new add-on feature will cost an extra $1 to play, and is available only with the purchase of a ticket for the original game. The add-on draw is another chance to win prizes, giving players the opportunity to play the same numbers against two different draws. The same play could win on both the original Powerball game and the new add-on game.

                        So to review/reiterate my findings so far:

                        • Multiplier is included in base price
                        • Extra $1 buys you a separate play for a secondary drawing (also can be multiplied)
                        • You can win on the base play AND the subsequent Power Up drawing (one, either, or both)

                        Example:

                        You buy a $2 Powerball ticket and add Power Up for an extra $1. You get numbers 01-02-03-04-05 PB 06. The numbers selected in the primary drawing are 01-07-08-09-10 PB 06 (match 1 of 5 + PB). You win $2 times whatever multiplier. Since you bought Power Up as well, you get to participate in a follow-up drawing. In this one, numbers 01-02-03-09-11 PB 18 are drawn, so using your original numbers you matched 3 of 5. This garners you an additional $10 times whatever multiplier. So your total winnings for the night would be $12 times the multiplier, assuming the same key is used for both draws (I think?).

                        As I mentioned above, all of this is subject to change. However, typically 4-5 months to launch is when they finalize everything. Unless MMC has spooked them, I doubt this will be modified to the extreme. One lottery mentioned that MUSL did make some recent changes, but I'm pretty sure that was reflected in the draft I saw. I also heard that the title "Power Up" is tentative (apparently some lotteries use this name), but since it is already written into the draft I don't think it will change. I still haven't quite figured out how the multiplier key works, but I'm sure that once I see some marketing materials I should understand it.

                        Btw, correcting myself above, even though the Power Up second prize is $500,000 vs. $1,000,000 for base game with same odds, the add-on only costs half as much ($1). This makes playing a $3 ticket worth about 8.33 cents more per dollar than the base $2 ticket over the long run.

                        If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                        If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                        2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                        P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

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                          Posted: December 16, 2014, 3:26 am - IP Logged

                          Finally! A clear verification of whether PU is separate or not.

                          According to Washington lottery:

                          MUSL is also proposing a new add-on draw game which will replace the “Powerplay” feature of the original game. The new add-on feature will cost an extra $1 to play, and is available only with the purchase of a ticket for the original game. The add-on draw is another chance to win prizes, giving players the opportunity to play the same numbers against two different draws. The same play could win on both the original Powerball game and the new add-on game.

                          So to review/reiterate my findings so far:

                          • Multiplier is included in base price
                          • Extra $1 buys you a separate play for a secondary drawing (also can be multiplied)
                          • You can win on the base play AND the subsequent Power Up drawing (one, either, or both)

                          Example:

                          You buy a $2 Powerball ticket and add Power Up for an extra $1. You get numbers 01-02-03-04-05 PB 06. The numbers selected in the primary drawing are 01-07-08-09-10 PB 06 (match 1 of 5 + PB). You win $2 times whatever multiplier. Since you bought Power Up as well, you get to participate in a follow-up drawing. In this one, numbers 01-02-03-09-11 PB 18 are drawn, so using your original numbers you matched 3 of 5. This garners you an additional $10 times whatever multiplier. So your total winnings for the night would be $12 times the multiplier, assuming the same key is used for both draws (I think?).

                          As I mentioned above, all of this is subject to change. However, typically 4-5 months to launch is when they finalize everything. Unless MMC has spooked them, I doubt this will be modified to the extreme. One lottery mentioned that MUSL did make some recent changes, but I'm pretty sure that was reflected in the draft I saw. I also heard that the title "Power Up" is tentative (apparently some lotteries use this name), but since it is already written into the draft I don't think it will change. I still haven't quite figured out how the multiplier key works, but I'm sure that once I see some marketing materials I should understand it.

                          Btw, correcting myself above, even though the Power Up second prize is $500,000 vs. $1,000,000 for base game with same odds, the add-on only costs half as much ($1). This makes playing a $3 ticket worth about 8.33 cents more per dollar than the base $2 ticket over the long run.

                          LM ... this all sounds like the Canada Lotto 6/49 game ... you can also play an extra dollar on the regular ticket purchase. With that extra dollar there are 22 extra chances at winning money by having one number ... right or left to more numbers on the right or left of the separate winning number or the whole number for the top prize, which is separate from the regular jackpot prize.

                          I'm not able to post a link but the extra dollar game is called Encore which is part of the Lotto 6/49 but only if a player adds the extra dollar when buying a regular Lotto 6/49 ticket.

                          It's interesting reading and easily found on Google.

                          ...

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                            Wyomissing, PA
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                            Posted: December 16, 2014, 11:42 am - IP Logged

                            Finally! A clear verification of whether PU is separate or not.

                            According to Washington lottery:

                            MUSL is also proposing a new add-on draw game which will replace the “Powerplay” feature of the original game. The new add-on feature will cost an extra $1 to play, and is available only with the purchase of a ticket for the original game. The add-on draw is another chance to win prizes, giving players the opportunity to play the same numbers against two different draws. The same play could win on both the original Powerball game and the new add-on game.

                            So to review/reiterate my findings so far:

                            • Multiplier is included in base price
                            • Extra $1 buys you a separate play for a secondary drawing (also can be multiplied)
                            • You can win on the base play AND the subsequent Power Up drawing (one, either, or both)

                            Example:

                            You buy a $2 Powerball ticket and add Power Up for an extra $1. You get numbers 01-02-03-04-05 PB 06. The numbers selected in the primary drawing are 01-07-08-09-10 PB 06 (match 1 of 5 + PB). You win $2 times whatever multiplier. Since you bought Power Up as well, you get to participate in a follow-up drawing. In this one, numbers 01-02-03-09-11 PB 18 are drawn, so using your original numbers you matched 3 of 5. This garners you an additional $10 times whatever multiplier. So your total winnings for the night would be $12 times the multiplier, assuming the same key is used for both draws (I think?).

                            As I mentioned above, all of this is subject to change. However, typically 4-5 months to launch is when they finalize everything. Unless MMC has spooked them, I doubt this will be modified to the extreme. One lottery mentioned that MUSL did make some recent changes, but I'm pretty sure that was reflected in the draft I saw. I also heard that the title "Power Up" is tentative (apparently some lotteries use this name), but since it is already written into the draft I don't think it will change. I still haven't quite figured out how the multiplier key works, but I'm sure that once I see some marketing materials I should understand it.

                            Btw, correcting myself above, even though the Power Up second prize is $500,000 vs. $1,000,000 for base game with same odds, the add-on only costs half as much ($1). This makes playing a $3 ticket worth about 8.33 cents more per dollar than the base $2 ticket over the long run.

                            Hope they rethink the second draw part, and eliminate that, since it just screams ripoff, and will confuse many players. Some who didn't add Power Up will wonder why they didn't win anything in the second chance drawing. While others who did add Power Up and happen to hit all six numbers in the second chance draw will believe they hit the big one, not realizing they hit for far less.

                            Seems a very bad value to spend another $1 for a second chance with the same odds of hitting all six numbers, but pays $10 million verses $50 million+. Mathematically, that may not be so bad, since the Power Up also increases other lower tier prizes, but perception matters when it comes to marketing, especially so for lottery games. Lowering the second place match 5 prize tier for players adding $1 (current Powerplay) is a bad move. Right now, the game is simple to understand.

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                              Happyland
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                              Posted: December 16, 2014, 12:15 pm - IP Logged

                              Hope they rethink the second draw part, and eliminate that, since it just screams ripoff, and will confuse many players. Some who didn't add Power Up will wonder why they didn't win anything in the second chance drawing. While others who did add Power Up and happen to hit all six numbers in the second chance draw will believe they hit the big one, not realizing they hit for far less.

                              Seems a very bad value to spend another $1 for a second chance with the same odds of hitting all six numbers, but pays $10 million verses $50 million+. Mathematically, that may not be so bad, since the Power Up also increases other lower tier prizes, but perception matters when it comes to marketing, especially so for lottery games. Lowering the second place match 5 prize tier for players adding $1 (current Powerplay) is a bad move. Right now, the game is simple to understand.

                              Seems a very bad value to spend another $1 for a second chance with the same odds of hitting all six numbers, but pays $10 million verses $50 million+.

                              You're right, it is a bad value, but only if the jackpot is above a certain level; otherwise, it is still a good value because the lower prizes per dollar are actually higher than the base game. It sounds like a rip-off but you have to remember they are decreasing the allocation to the first 2 tiers and increasing to the lower ones. Because the lower prizes are more likely to be won, in a real drawing the players would probably be happier (after all, how many people ever win the first 2 prizes?). The actual payout of the game isn't changing...it is still 50%. But the variance is decreasing drastically, so the game is going to be more consistent for players.

                              I think it may be confusing to players at first but the more I think about it, the more the idea is growing on me. They're just trying to 'freshen' up the game, and I can't really think of any way they could push the new terrible jackpot odds without making Power Play and the base game more exciting. The included multiplier is definitely a step in the right direction...I think everyone in this thread is happy about that! However, I also agree that people could get confused about their winnings under Power Up, so if I was attending MUSL meetings I would probably suggest that they make the PU matrix totally different (but that would likely raise cost).

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                                 
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