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Topic closed. 2092 replies. Last post 5 years ago by sandnan.

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United States
Member #131843
August 19, 2012
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 Posted: August 22, 2012, 8:13 pm - IP Logged

You said it yourself "Anything worth doing is worth doing well." As a lotto player if you don't see the value in learning how one could make more objective choices then I don't know what to say. I hope someone out there that is reading sees the value in it and helps them.

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4772 Posts
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 Posted: August 22, 2012, 8:47 pm - IP Logged

BK

All these things have been discussed at lenth many times.  Clusters exist everywhere and are a product

of randomness.  It is hard to find a value that is not coming out af a cluster or about to start one.  Waves

on an ocean.   Playing the lottery is not about math per say, it more about about intuition.

Math can express the lottery in terms of probability and chance can cover almost any outcome so INHO there

is no correct or incorrect way to play.   If a person believes that the history has something to do with the next

draw that's Ok with me.  I personally don't believe it and think I can show that the next draw is a product of

the matrix.  The balls bouncing around inside a hopper is the biggest illusion in a lottery drawing.  It does not

matter how the numbers are drawn as long as it is not tainted.  While all numbers have the exact same chance

of showing the full set of numbers show very different probabilities based on a number of elements.  DM is a

tool that can build sets based on the differentiating of probabilities between combos of 5 number sets.  A simple

example of this is a set that has one double odd numbers.   42% of the total possible outcomes of a  5 number

set will have 1 double odd number while only 7% have a chance of forming a 3 double odd number set.   Since the

drawing is really just taking a random sample from the matrix then the sets with 1 double odd number have the

greatest probability of showing in any one drawing.  All my analysis is based on the matrix and treating the draw

history the same way a I would treat a series of random samples.  I expect the drawings to follow the possible

outcomes in proportion.  This gives me an avantage in the sets I play because they are built to cover the largest

body of sets within the matrix.  If you I played only sets that have 1 double odd numbers then I will be correct more

often than if I play sets with 3 double odd.  Using many such values to reduce sets is the most effective method I

have ever found.  Since I treat the past results in the same manner I would a series of random samples and given

the fact that based on the populations within the matrix are known then I can somewhat predict or better said put

myself in a better position than I would get using QP's.  QP's win a large percent of the prizes but when you consider

the number of QP's sales they loose there luster.   If my methods suffer from some fallacy then so what, Provide a

method that does better and I will change the way I play.  There are ways to use the history of a game which should

not be considered fallacies and that includes treating it as a series of random samples.

RL

....

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4772 Posts
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 Posted: August 22, 2012, 8:57 pm - IP Logged

You said it yourself "Anything worth doing is worth doing well." As a lotto player if you don't see the value in learning how one could make more objective choices then I don't know what to say. I hope someone out there that is reading sees the value in it and helps them.

BK

So based on your post then you belive that one choice is better than another, most of the people who make

these sort of postings would be trying to prove that we are wasting out time.  You remind me so much of

another poster that I had to run a writting style analysis using a custom program that I wrote and guess who

it matched you to.

RL

....

United States
Member #131843
August 19, 2012
8 Posts
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 Posted: August 22, 2012, 9:29 pm - IP Logged

BK

So based on your post then you belive that one choice is better than another, most of the people who make

these sort of postings would be trying to prove that we are wasting out time.  You remind me so much of

another poster that I had to run a writting style analysis using a custom program that I wrote and guess who

it matched you to.

RL

Not at all. I don't think you're wasting your time. I think your software is great and has a lot of potential and your lottery pool has a good chance of winning which is why I signed up in the first place. To point out an error in your software that you caught, but in the end it is a tool and it's up to the user. 99% user 1% tool (figuratively)

My intentions were for your lottery pool members to improve their decision-making process. By recognizing that humans don't always make the right choices and there are ways one could improve them to maximize the potential of your lotto group. I want you guys to win. I play the lottery for the puzzle aspect and to see someone "beat it" would be great.

Based on my post I suggested that one shouldn't be too hasty in narrowing filters too much. Remember the fallacy that said when people are sure about an answer 99% of the time they are wrong 40% of the time? My point is if there are times when you are uncertain about a filter it is better to leave a little wiggle room. How many times have you missed a filter because you were too hasty? Be honest.

The cluster illusion fallacy was just one example of a cognitive bias that exists and wasn't a suggestion of what one should play, but something that should be recognized that exists when considering what to play.

I don't understand the last part you wrote. Are you suggesting I am someone else?

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4772 Posts
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 Posted: August 22, 2012, 9:57 pm - IP Logged

BK

If you are sincere then you input is much appreached.  There are a number of people who troll the post

and do nothing but try to darw post off topic.   I very often find that choosing to play values that have no

clear bias are the ones I do best at.  I agree that sometimes that the ones that seem certain to hit often

take a vacation on the day I put them into play.  I have been looking into bursty behavior for a method to

deal better with the clusters either for runs of hits and or misses.  The choices the pool members are submitting

are expected to have mistakes but I am always working on algorithms that can take this into account.  At

this point I am still trying to format the data in such a way that I can extract a setup that takes this into

account.  The average person will make around the same amount of mistakes draw to draw and being that

we have a fixed number of members and given that most will submit different choices I hope to be able to

extract the best setup possible using these variables.  Even if I can come up with 3 groups to block and a

few to put into play it will many times put us in the money.  Anyway, I really hope you are interested in helping

because we need all the help we can get.

RL

....

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4772 Posts
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 Posted: August 22, 2012, 10:01 pm - IP Logged

Night all, got to get some sleep.

....

United States
Member #131843
August 19, 2012
8 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 22, 2012, 10:34 pm - IP Logged

BK

If you are sincere then you input is much appreached.  There are a number of people who troll the post

and do nothing but try to darw post off topic.   I very often find that choosing to play values that have no

clear bias are the ones I do best at.  I agree that sometimes that the ones that seem certain to hit often

take a vacation on the day I put them into play.  I have been looking into bursty behavior for a method to

deal better with the clusters either for runs of hits and or misses.  The choices the pool members are submitting

are expected to have mistakes but I am always working on algorithms that can take this into account.  At

this point I am still trying to format the data in such a way that I can extract a setup that takes this into

account.  The average person will make around the same amount of mistakes draw to draw and being that

we have a fixed number of members and given that most will submit different choices I hope to be able to

extract the best setup possible using these variables.  Even if I can come up with 3 groups to block and a

few to put into play it will many times put us in the money.  Anyway, I really hope you are interested in helping

because we need all the help we can get.

RL

I am sincere. Sent you a PM, hope that is alright. My intentions were to point out an error and offer some suggestions and I have done so, so I'll be on my way. I PM'd you a little freebie as a parting gift and token of good faith, it's up to you if you feel it is worthy of inclusion in your software.

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4772 Posts
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 Posted: August 23, 2012, 1:52 pm - IP Logged

Hi guys

Just wanted to remind everyone to send there choices to Steve as soon as possible.  He needs time to

do his part before sending them all to me.  I need my stuff by 2:pm tomorrow to give me plenty of time

to make the setups.

RL

....

Braselton Ga
United States
Member #121665
January 14, 2012
849 Posts
Online
 Posted: August 23, 2012, 9:34 pm - IP Logged

To all of my Lottery Brother i am at Fort Benning Georgia Picking up My Young Infantry Man. 198th Infantry to day i am a very proud Dad.I have send my List in

Pennsylvania
United States
Member #2218
September 1, 2003
5825 Posts
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 Posted: August 23, 2012, 9:37 pm - IP Logged

Congratulations!!  Welcome home oldmanjohnson JR. Thank you for serving our country.  Very proud of you also!!

United States
Member #59354
March 13, 2008
4772 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 23, 2012, 10:29 pm - IP Logged

To all of my Lottery Brother i am at Fort Benning Georgia Picking up My Young Infantry Man. 198th Infantry to day i am a very proud Dad.I have send my List in

omj

My youngest son is in the service also, last I heard he was somewhere in central america but they move him

around so much I never know for sure where he's at.  Thanks for taking the time to send your choices.

RL

....

From Denver, Rocky Mountain Empire,
United States
Member #49750
February 13, 2007
538 Posts
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 Posted: August 24, 2012, 2:07 am - IP Logged

To all of my Lottery Brother i am at Fort Benning Georgia Picking up My Young Infantry Man. 198th Infantry to day i am a very proud Dad.I have send my List in

Oldmanjohnson, sincere gratitude and heartfelt thanks to your son and all the service men and women risking their lives to keep my family safe.

COLUMBUS,GA.
United States
Member #4924
June 3, 2004
6332 Posts
Online
 Posted: August 24, 2012, 4:26 am - IP Logged

To all of my Lottery Brother i am at Fort Benning Georgia Picking up My Young Infantry Man. 198th Infantry to day i am a very proud Dad.I have send my List in

Thanks to him and all of the others , that served. My son was stationed there.

I wish they would bring them all home!!!

Eugene Oregan
United States
Member #128629
May 29, 2012
532 Posts
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 Posted: August 24, 2012, 7:40 am - IP Logged

To all of my Lottery Brother i am at Fort Benning Georgia Picking up My Young Infantry Man. 198th Infantry to day i am a very proud Dad.I have send my List in

God bless your son sir, and all he does for all of us in this his time of service.  dld

cleveland ohio
United States
Member #65897
October 9, 2008
275 Posts
Offline
 Posted: August 24, 2012, 8:43 am - IP Logged

To all of my Lottery Brother i am at Fort Benning Georgia Picking up My Young Infantry Man. 198th Infantry to day i am a very proud Dad.I have send my List in

Many thanks to your son for his service to this great nation of ours. You have every reason to be proud. Have a great weekend.

 Page 99 of 140