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CA Lottery - California Love - CA Lottery Scratchers

Topic closed. 2718 replies. Last post 1 year ago by CAScratcher20.

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Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
Los Angeles, California
United States
Member #103813
January 5, 2011
1530 Posts
Offline
Posted: April 27, 2014, 7:08 pm - IP Logged

Here's an observation.  For the past few days, I've seen a surge in Tripling Crossword (pink) play at two of my stores which are unrelated but in the same neighborhood.  Do people somehow know when top prizes are sent out of the warehouse?  It's my understanding that the CA Lottery does not know exactly where the winning top prizes are, but they know which "batch" they are located in.  So, I was wondering if this information gets leaked somehow and spreads through the avid lottery playing community.  I've always wondered about that when older games get a spike in play all of a sudden.

I'm always up for a good conspiracy theory. Anything is possible. But it at least has to pass the smell test first.

First, individual greed. Someone has to personally profit from this. If there's just a bunch of random people all chasing a specific game, I don't see the individual greed. Unless these are all people working for this one mob boss, to find a $20K top prize? Not too much motivation there.

Besides being a small top prize, the game stats don't look too good. The game sales is overall about 18% remaining, but the top prize is negative delta at 16% remaining, by a little less then 1 top prize worth. And the game is not really due to pay out more. It is a bit short, but mainly due to the hundreds of thousands of dollars in throwaways on the ticket value prizes, a common problem with crossword games.(the 25% remaining)

Tripling Crossword (836)$3
PrizesOdds 1 inTotal # of WinnersPrizes ClaimedPrizes AvailablePercent Remain
$20,0001,200,0003025516.67%
$3,000600,00060491118.33%
$1,000200,0001801463418.89%
$30060,00060048911118.50%
$15010,9093,3002,71758317.67%
$1001,46324,60020,2024,39817.88%
$601,09133,00027,0095,99118.15%
$5036499,00081,22817,77217.95%
$30300120,00098,06021,94018.28%
$20167216,000177,11338,88718.00%
$15125288,000234,58753,41318.55%
$12100360,000290,12069,88019.41%
$1063576,000470,776105,22418.27%
$5122,952,0002,385,098566,90219.20%
$493,960,0003,171,065788,93519.92%
Ticket172,160,0001,614,498545,50225.25%
_3.33610,792,77079.43%20.57%

I looked at the sales for the game in the past few weeks. Nothing really unusual. This game is over a year old, and may be due to announce end of sale date pretty soon, except that crosswords they often run them down until all top prizes are gone. Below is graph of sales per day. First section is close to start of game for a few weeks, then middle part is a year after, and the last part is the past few weeks. You can still see the classical boost of sales on Fridays and Saturdays, all games have that. But no other noticeable bump in sales in the past few days. It's down to a 20,000 per day trickle, down from over 120,000 per day at the start, as would be expected. But perhaps a special targeted buying flurry would escape this overall view. Shocked

    mrcraft's avatar - images3lp4 zps7dbb4a10.jpg
    Los Angeles, California
    United States
    Member #149492
    December 2, 2013
    919 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: April 27, 2014, 7:18 pm - IP Logged

    I'm always up for a good conspiracy theory. Anything is possible. But it at least has to pass the smell test first.

    First, individual greed. Someone has to personally profit from this. If there's just a bunch of random people all chasing a specific game, I don't see the individual greed. Unless these are all people working for this one mob boss, to find a $20K top prize? Not too much motivation there.

    Besides being a small top prize, the game stats don't look too good. The game sales is overall about 18% remaining, but the top prize is negative delta at 16% remaining, by a little less then 1 top prize worth. And the game is not really due to pay out more. It is a bit short, but mainly due to the hundreds of thousands of dollars in throwaways on the ticket value prizes, a common problem with crossword games.(the 25% remaining)

    Tripling Crossword (836)$3
    PrizesOdds 1 inTotal # of WinnersPrizes ClaimedPrizes AvailablePercent Remain
    $20,0001,200,0003025516.67%
    $3,000600,00060491118.33%
    $1,000200,0001801463418.89%
    $30060,00060048911118.50%
    $15010,9093,3002,71758317.67%
    $1001,46324,60020,2024,39817.88%
    $601,09133,00027,0095,99118.15%
    $5036499,00081,22817,77217.95%
    $30300120,00098,06021,94018.28%
    $20167216,000177,11338,88718.00%
    $15125288,000234,58753,41318.55%
    $12100360,000290,12069,88019.41%
    $1063576,000470,776105,22418.27%
    $5122,952,0002,385,098566,90219.20%
    $493,960,0003,171,065788,93519.92%
    Ticket172,160,0001,614,498545,50225.25%
    _3.33610,792,77079.43%20.57%

    I looked at the sales for the game in the past few weeks. Nothing really unusual. This game is over a year old, and may be due to announce end of sale date pretty soon, except that crosswords they often run them down until all top prizes are gone. Below is graph of sales per day. First section is close to start of game for a few weeks, then middle part is a year after, and the last part is the past few weeks. You can still see the classical boost of sales on Fridays and Saturdays, all games have that. But no other noticeable bump in sales in the past few days. It's down to a 20,000 per day trickle, down from over 120,000 per day at the start, as would be expected. But perhaps a special targeted buying flurry would escape this overall view. Shocked

    Cool.  Where do you get the sales data?  Since you have yesterday's sales, I assume it's available online somewhere?  Not so much for this game, but it'll be nice get sales data for other Scratcher and draw games on a continuous basis.

      Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
      Los Angeles, California
      United States
      Member #103813
      January 5, 2011
      1530 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: April 27, 2014, 7:23 pm - IP Logged

      Cool.  Where do you get the sales data?  Since you have yesterday's sales, I assume it's available online somewhere?  Not so much for this game, but it'll be nice get sales data for other Scratcher and draw games on a continuous basis.

      It's derived based on ticket claims and odds and some assumptions made. Just from the data from the calottery scratch available prizes. I don't grab and store daily stats myself, thought about doing it, but there are places that do. One is txscratchoffs.com where he has a section for California. He just pulls daily from calottery website. I contacted him before, and he added the percent remaining column, which I think is the most beneficial. But so much more could be done.(like daily sales graphs) I disagree with his ranking methodology though.

        Avatar
        LA CA
        United States
        Member #118691
        November 6, 2011
        416 Posts
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        Posted: April 27, 2014, 11:42 pm - IP Logged

        Got a $10 Black from a liquor store in Ojai and won nothing.. I have never scored well in Blacks :-(

          Avatar
          CA
          United States
          Member #141455
          April 14, 2013
          182 Posts
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          Posted: April 29, 2014, 3:03 am - IP Logged

          wow thanks for the info as always Jon D ...

          been playing the $500 frenzy and the new $10 bonus xwords exclusively.

          nothing much but not too bad either ...

          will post more if something great comes along *^^*

          $20 - 5 Million Jackpot $100 (#23) $50 (#29)
          $10 - Cali Gold $500 (#45) // Lucky for Life $50 // Diamond Million $50 (#18) // 20X Crosswords $100 (#32,#24,#14) $75 (#13)
          $05 - Lucky for Life $40 // Fortune 55 $50 // WinItAll $500 // MegaXWord $100
          $03 - 10x The Money $100 (#63) $50 (#58) || $02 - Season's Gold $100

            Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
            Los Angeles, California
            United States
            Member #103813
            January 5, 2011
            1530 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: April 29, 2014, 8:28 am - IP Logged

            wow thanks for the info as always Jon D ...

            been playing the $500 frenzy and the new $10 bonus xwords exclusively.

            nothing much but not too bad either ...

            will post more if something great comes along *^^*

            Thumbs Up

              Avatar

              United States
              Member #154794
              April 29, 2014
              60 Posts
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              Posted: April 29, 2014, 3:57 pm - IP Logged

              This is a very interesting forum. Thank you for all the valuable information.

               My family members  have been playing 20 X (1108).  They haven't won anything big. We can't find Smokin Hot Cash (854) here in Central California. The odds on the New California Lucky Life  make me think twice. We have never won anything on either Lucky for Life and or Lucky Life. Most of the winning tickets are from the Bay Area and or Southern California.

               

              The scratchers are pretty boring and its no fun not winning something once in a while. Big Smile

                mrcraft's avatar - images3lp4 zps7dbb4a10.jpg
                Los Angeles, California
                United States
                Member #149492
                December 2, 2013
                919 Posts
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                Posted: April 29, 2014, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

                Welcome beachbunny13!

                  mrcraft's avatar - images3lp4 zps7dbb4a10.jpg
                  Los Angeles, California
                  United States
                  Member #149492
                  December 2, 2013
                  919 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: April 29, 2014, 6:19 pm - IP Logged

                  That was pretty quick, someone won the $5 Lucky Life top prize.

                    Jon D's avatar - calotterylogo
                    Los Angeles, California
                    United States
                    Member #103813
                    January 5, 2011
                    1530 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: April 29, 2014, 6:56 pm - IP Logged

                    That was pretty quick, someone won the $5 Lucky Life top prize.

                    Wow, that was fast! Only around half a million tickets sold so far on a 1-in-4,000,000 prize.

                    OK, I know to stay away from $5 LL for a while till it catches up a bit. Wink

                      green sandals's avatar - bxvg
                      Costa Mesa
                      United States
                      Member #150634
                      December 27, 2013
                      157 Posts
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                      Posted: April 29, 2014, 7:51 pm - IP Logged

                      Looking back @ my 100 winners in $10 games from Feb to the present, I've noticed none of them are 40 or greater.  Actually the highest one was 031 (1000 W in 1MF).  In 5MJP, big W's were from 005-018.  Admittedly an extremely small data set, but has anyone else noticed a greater tendency for big W's to come from say, 000-031 in 10 games and 000-020 in 5MJP?

                      Got 2 DM today.  171059-043 & 044.  43 20 W & 44 100 W.  Reevaluating above theory.

                        coolac5's avatar - 1 Million-Fortune_event_page.jpg
                        Oakland, CA
                        United States
                        Member #138260
                        January 23, 2013
                        42 Posts
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                        Posted: April 29, 2014, 7:53 pm - IP Logged

                        Got 2 DM today.  171059-043 & 044.  43 20 W & 44 100 W.  Reevaluating above theory.

                        Nice hits on consecutive tickets!!  Was the $100 W a number match or 10X $10/20X $5?

                          green sandals's avatar - bxvg
                          Costa Mesa
                          United States
                          Member #150634
                          December 27, 2013
                          157 Posts
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                          Posted: April 29, 2014, 8:02 pm - IP Logged

                          Nice hits on consecutive tickets!!  Was the $100 W a number match or 10X $10/20X $5?

                          Thanks, coolac5.

                          Fast spot 100

                            Avatar
                            CA
                            United States
                            Member #141455
                            April 14, 2013
                            182 Posts
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                            Posted: April 29, 2014, 8:14 pm - IP Logged

                            congrats green sandals ...

                            wish i could run into those doubles ^^

                            $20 - 5 Million Jackpot $100 (#23) $50 (#29)
                            $10 - Cali Gold $500 (#45) // Lucky for Life $50 // Diamond Million $50 (#18) // 20X Crosswords $100 (#32,#24,#14) $75 (#13)
                            $05 - Lucky for Life $40 // Fortune 55 $50 // WinItAll $500 // MegaXWord $100
                            $03 - 10x The Money $100 (#63) $50 (#58) || $02 - Season's Gold $100

                              green sandals's avatar - bxvg
                              Costa Mesa
                              United States
                              Member #150634
                              December 27, 2013
                              157 Posts
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                              Posted: April 29, 2014, 8:21 pm - IP Logged

                              congrats green sandals ...

                              wish i could run into those doubles ^^

                              Thanks sudlor.  Doubles are out there.  Problem is, they put 50 tickets in a pack.

                                 
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