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Do any systems actually work?

Topic closed. 160 replies. Last post 2 years ago by onlymoney.

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Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
Texas
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January 30, 2010
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Posted: May 10, 2014, 12:41 am - IP Logged

...historical streaks or patterns offer no usefulness for predicting future streaks or patterns in a random process.

Yes, they do. The lottery is full of patterns. They may occur for a short time over a few draws or over the long term. A
perfect example is the "old man's zero trick" (Do a search). Numbers repeating from the previous draw, even
numbered doubles hitting 5 times in a row, series numbers appearing in groups, numbers not going more than 10 days without hitting. These are all examples of patterns that happen every day. Any one that doesn't see patterns is not studying or looking at their games hard enough. Granted they are not always this obvious, but they are there. You have to study your game.
When you get a hit, ask yourself, "How did I get that, what did I see, what was I thinking?" Write it down, so you don't forget. When a number comes up and you say to yourself, "How did I miss that...?" Do the same thing.  It will happen again, you want to be ready when it does. IMO, the biggest reason people lose is because they thought, "Oh, that's not gonna happen." And then it does... And that is random kicking your butt. The more you study your state's game the better player you will become. Learn the nuances. It's all about observation.

 Any one that doesn't see patterns is not studying or looking at their games hard enough. Granted they are not always this obvious, but they are there. You have to study your game. 
When you get a hit, ask yourself, "How did I get that, what did I see, what was I thinking?" Write it down, so you don't forget. When a number comes up and you say to yourself, "How did I miss that...?" Do the same thing.  It will happen again, you want to be ready when it does.

grwurston, SIR, you have instructed the masses on how to develop A PROPER SYSTEM here. Everything you've said here follows suite with what I've said in terms of timing, preparedness, discipline, and patience. When it comes to these games, the numbers are not only counted...they are also READ. When a player reads, they are studying what's going on, or, what happened. At some point, everything that's learned must be compiled and that's what teaches a player what to do, when, and how.

I've said here many, many times that I don't play every day, or, even every draw. Why? Because, I'm waiting, looking, and expecting for my particular criteria(s) to show up which is conducive to my approach...Patience, Discipline, Timing. I know for a fact that if anyone is playing everyday and every draw, they are losing big time. No true system allows a player to play everyday...without becoming seriously buried in debt. 

As you said, the the game is full of patterns...and even the randomness is predictable. Very good post, man!!Smash

 

'Match

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living

    LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
    Happyland
    United States
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    September 1, 2013
    1129 Posts
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    Posted: May 10, 2014, 1:41 am - IP Logged

    ...historical streaks or patterns offer no usefulness for predicting future streaks or patterns in a random process.

    Yes, they do. The lottery is full of patterns. They may occur for a short time over a few draws or over the long term. A
    perfect example is the "old man's zero trick" (Do a search). Numbers repeating from the previous draw, even
    numbered doubles hitting 5 times in a row, series numbers appearing in groups, numbers not going more than 10 days without hitting. These are all examples of patterns that happen every day. Any one that doesn't see patterns is not studying or looking at their games hard enough. Granted they are not always this obvious, but they are there. You have to study your game.
    When you get a hit, ask yourself, "How did I get that, what did I see, what was I thinking?" Write it down, so you don't forget. When a number comes up and you say to yourself, "How did I miss that...?" Do the same thing.  It will happen again, you want to be ready when it does. IMO, the biggest reason people lose is because they thought, "Oh, that's not gonna happen." And then it does... And that is random kicking your butt. The more you study your state's game the better player you will become. Learn the nuances. It's all about observation.

    "A  perfect example is the "old man's zero trick" (Do a search)"

    You mean, a perfect example of a system that does not work?

    DEBUNKING "OLD MAN'S ZERO TRICK" by LottoMetro

    Claim:

    Past occurrences of the digit "0" in Pick3 have a propensity of being preceded or followed by the digit(s) "3" and/or "6" with/without "0."

    Posted here: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/86692 and here: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/98074

    Also blogged here: http://www.lotterypost.com/blogentry/64080

    Sidenote:

    To be honest, reading the "rules" of this system leaves subject personal interpretation, but I will comment based on my general understanding.

    Response:

    For simplicity, let's say the lottery draws only once per day. This means that on ANY given day, the number "0" has a 30% chance of showing up. Why? Because each position draws independently from a pool of 10 (0-9), giving each digit a probability of 1/10 or 10% for each position. Three positions, three possible zeros. Likewise, the number "3" has a 30% chance of showing up, and the number "6" has a 30% chance of showing up. That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing, and a 60% chance of either (0,3), (0,6), or (3,6) showing up together in no particular order. Of course, there is a 0.3% chance that either 0-0-0, 3-3-3, or 6-6-6 show up etc etc, but I won't waste time counting permutations.

    Now, the claim states that a 3 AND/OR 6 may precede a zero OR follow a zero in the draw BEFORE, ON, or AFTER the day of occurrence. It's a little confusing, but the bottom line is that this is VERY BROAD. Either way, that gives 3 different draws that this "phenomenon" could occur. With a 60% chance of a 3, 6, or 0 mix/match/touch/whatever occurring in any single drawing, that gives a 93.6% chance of it occurring at least once in 3 drawings (this is most likely where the "90%" (alternatively "98%") guarantee/claim comes from).

    Calculation:

    1-0.60 = 40% chance of not occurring in 1 drawing

    0.40^3 = 6.4% chance of not occurring in 3 drawings

    1-0.064 = 93.6% chance of occurring at least 1 in 3 drawings

    Now, you may say "Wow, that just proves it works 93.6% of the time." No, that only proves that 93.6% of the time, a zero and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in at least 1 of 3 drawings REGARDLESS of what occurred BEFORE that drawing or AFTER. It's the equivalent or pure luck, random chance. Because it is random, you have NO WAY of knowing whether 0 and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in that next drawing. If you play 6, you will kick yourself when that 3 comes up, but mentally you will note how "the system worked"- you just picked the wrong digit. Like I said, the possibilities are quite broad. In the case of playing straight, if you want to play the number 6, you would still have to cover the other 9 numbers in the other positions because 6 could show up with 5, 7, 1, etc.

    Other Comments:

    In order for a system to be profitable over the long run, the win rate AND payout must be high enough to overcome the House's edge (in this case 50%).

    You would need a win rate of 100% and a payout higher than whatever the fair-odds are for the type of play (straight etc) in order to profit over time.

    It doesn't matter if you pick the right numbers and win once....unless you stop playing (while ahead) and never play again. Over the long run, the odds rule. You may have periods of time where it seems like you are winning more than you should, but that's just the deception of randomness at play.

    Conclusion:

    Need I go further? This trick is doing nothing but tricking the player.

    Now, I did not say all this to be demeaning...far from my intentions. I believe systems are fun for picking numbers (after all, you've got to come up with them somehow). But I do not believe that systems really "work" in a non-biased drawing, and statistical evidence strongly supports this. As you can see in my explanation above, common beliefs and systems based on such patterns can be readily rejected, or rather appropriately attributed to pure luck.

    P.S. I could GO ON about this ALL DAY, but the truth is, most likely you are set in your beliefs (which is perfectly OK btw, and I mean that) and would not be swayed by anything I have to say. To everybody, regardless of what system you use (or don't use), have fun and good luck! Thumbs Up

    If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
    If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

    2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
    P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

      mypiemaster's avatar - 2015021003pileofcash
      JACKPOT HUNTER

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      Posted: May 10, 2014, 1:51 am - IP Logged

      No-No-No-No.

      Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

      Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates Yes Nod ****John Carlton****

        savagegoose's avatar - ProfilePho
        adelaide sa
        Australia
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        Posted: May 10, 2014, 2:38 am - IP Logged

        my system of having all numbers from my 6/45 game on 8 lines does as advertised.  i get all 8 drawn numbers in those 8 lines.  unfortunately most of the time i just get 2 on 1 line and it takes the 2 bonus numbers and 1 normal number to actually win a prize.

        2014 = -1016; 2015= -1409; 2016 JAN = -106; FEB= -81; MAR= -131; APR= - 87: MAY= -91; JUN= -39; JUL=-134; AUG= -124; SEP = -123; OCT= -84  NOV=- 73 TOT= -3498

        keno historic = -2291 ; 2015= -603; 2016= JAN=-32, FEB= +12 , MAR= -86, APR = -77. MAY= -48, JUN= -29, JUL=-71; AUG = -52; SEPT= -43; OCT = +56 NOV = -33 TOT= -3297

          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
          Park City, UT
          United States
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          January 18, 2009
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          Posted: May 10, 2014, 7:12 am - IP Logged

          "A  perfect example is the "old man's zero trick" (Do a search)"

          You mean, a perfect example of a system that does not work?

          DEBUNKING "OLD MAN'S ZERO TRICK" by LottoMetro

          Claim:

          Past occurrences of the digit "0" in Pick3 have a propensity of being preceded or followed by the digit(s) "3" and/or "6" with/without "0."

          Posted here: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/86692 and here: http://www.lotterypost.com/thread/98074

          Also blogged here: http://www.lotterypost.com/blogentry/64080

          Sidenote:

          To be honest, reading the "rules" of this system leaves subject personal interpretation, but I will comment based on my general understanding.

          Response:

          For simplicity, let's say the lottery draws only once per day. This means that on ANY given day, the number "0" has a 30% chance of showing up. Why? Because each position draws independently from a pool of 10 (0-9), giving each digit a probability of 1/10 or 10% for each position. Three positions, three possible zeros. Likewise, the number "3" has a 30% chance of showing up, and the number "6" has a 30% chance of showing up. That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing, and a 60% chance of either (0,3), (0,6), or (3,6) showing up together in no particular order. Of course, there is a 0.3% chance that either 0-0-0, 3-3-3, or 6-6-6 show up etc etc, but I won't waste time counting permutations.

          Now, the claim states that a 3 AND/OR 6 may precede a zero OR follow a zero in the draw BEFORE, ON, or AFTER the day of occurrence. It's a little confusing, but the bottom line is that this is VERY BROAD. Either way, that gives 3 different draws that this "phenomenon" could occur. With a 60% chance of a 3, 6, or 0 mix/match/touch/whatever occurring in any single drawing, that gives a 93.6% chance of it occurring at least once in 3 drawings (this is most likely where the "90%" (alternatively "98%") guarantee/claim comes from).

          Calculation:

          1-0.60 = 40% chance of not occurring in 1 drawing

          0.40^3 = 6.4% chance of not occurring in 3 drawings

          1-0.064 = 93.6% chance of occurring at least 1 in 3 drawings

          Now, you may say "Wow, that just proves it works 93.6% of the time." No, that only proves that 93.6% of the time, a zero and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in at least 1 of 3 drawings REGARDLESS of what occurred BEFORE that drawing or AFTER. It's the equivalent or pure luck, random chance. Because it is random, you have NO WAY of knowing whether 0 and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in that next drawing. If you play 6, you will kick yourself when that 3 comes up, but mentally you will note how "the system worked"- you just picked the wrong digit. Like I said, the possibilities are quite broad. In the case of playing straight, if you want to play the number 6, you would still have to cover the other 9 numbers in the other positions because 6 could show up with 5, 7, 1, etc.

          Other Comments:

          In order for a system to be profitable over the long run, the win rate AND payout must be high enough to overcome the House's edge (in this case 50%).

          You would need a win rate of 100% and a payout higher than whatever the fair-odds are for the type of play (straight etc) in order to profit over time.

          It doesn't matter if you pick the right numbers and win once....unless you stop playing (while ahead) and never play again. Over the long run, the odds rule. You may have periods of time where it seems like you are winning more than you should, but that's just the deception of randomness at play.

          Conclusion:

          Need I go further? This trick is doing nothing but tricking the player.

          Now, I did not say all this to be demeaning...far from my intentions. I believe systems are fun for picking numbers (after all, you've got to come up with them somehow). But I do not believe that systems really "work" in a non-biased drawing, and statistical evidence strongly supports this. As you can see in my explanation above, common beliefs and systems based on such patterns can be readily rejected, or rather appropriately attributed to pure luck.

          P.S. I could GO ON about this ALL DAY, but the truth is, most likely you are set in your beliefs (which is perfectly OK btw, and I mean that) and would not be swayed by anything I have to say. To everybody, regardless of what system you use (or don't use), have fun and good luck! Thumbs Up

          That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

          Interesting, only 657 out of 1000 combinations have a 0, or 3 or 6 in them.

          Jimmy

            morgothaod's avatar - Lottery-035.jpg

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            Posted: May 10, 2014, 9:32 am - IP Logged

            That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

            Interesting, only 657 out of 1000 combinations have a 0, or 3 or 6 in them.

            Jimmy

            Ok, maybe I can reduce my odds some but still... 1 in 600 is really hard to hit especially if you don't play a lot of numbers.

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: May 10, 2014, 9:46 am - IP Logged

              Ok, maybe I can reduce my odds some but still... 1 in 600 is really hard to hit especially if you don't play a lot of numbers.

              If it was any easier everyone would be winning and the lotteries couldn't exist and we all would be losers, 

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                LottoBux's avatar - 2elh5if
                Ontario
                Canada
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                Posted: May 10, 2014, 11:45 am - IP Logged

                This agrees with my experience and sums up in a few words what it would take me pages and pages to say. In the time I've been closely following the Virginia Pick 3 numbers since the late 1990s, I've seen many methods and systems catch fire, then fizzle out. That's why I developed a rule. I try something until I get bored or I find another method, then I just move on. Right now my favorite method isn't working so I've been doing what many others do and just buying an occasional Quick Pick. I'd never done that before, but no other methods or systems are working for me right now, and that's a fun way to keep my hand in w/out spending a lot of money. However, if I see something interesting happen, I'll drop the QP like a bad habit and jump right on it. Lol.

                Oh, one thing I wanted to add about the "trend" thing. One of the first trends I noticed in Virginia was numbers repeating. That used to happen a LOT in Virginia P3, then it eased up. In recent years, it's started up briefly and then stopped again maybe two or three times a year. Still, I know that if I start seeing numbers repeat, I can probably call a hit by picking a number that shows and replaying it from 10 days out to 23 days out after the first time it shows. That's my favorite example of how to win by trend spotting. There's one number in the VA P3, 688, that used to be so easy to get a hit on this way that it was like shooting ducks in a barrel. The trick with 688 was that it didn't wait, it started repeating again the next draw, so you really had to jump right on it. However, no more. That quit happening. End of Trend. Bored. Move on. Get it?

                Anyway, as I said, find a trend, whatever the heck it is, and make hay while the sun shines, then hang back and don't get caught up in the trap of wasting your money when nothing is trending. I see a lot of folks doing that chasing the triples (000,111,222,...,999) EVERY draw. Don't do that. That's a money trap to be avoided.

                One other thing. Never underestimate the power of intuition. If you're feeling a number, forget about trends and systems and play the number. I tend to get caught up in looking at the numbers a particular way (and not finding anything) at the expense of listening to my intuition. I think I've missed a few flashes of intuition that way and it's something I'm thinking about.

                There's one number in the VA P3,688, that used to be so easy to get a hit on this way that it was like shooting ducks in a barrel. The trick with 688 was that it didn't wait, it started repeating again the next draw, so you really had to jump right on it. However, no more. That quit happening. End of Trend. Bored. Move on. Get it?

                Virginia Eek
                Pick 3 NightFri, May 9, 20146-8-8

                It's Kind Of Weird That You Mentioned It Yesterday And It Hit Last Night.

                                       

                  LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                  Happyland
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                  Posted: May 10, 2014, 1:16 pm - IP Logged

                  That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

                  Interesting, only 657 out of 1000 combinations have a 0, or 3 or 6 in them.

                  Jimmy

                  Pick 3 uses permutations, not combinations.

                  For position #1, there are 100 occurrences of "0," 100 occurrences of "3," and 100 occurrences of "6." Add those up and you get 300.

                  For position #2, there are 100 occurrences of "0," 100 occurrences of "3," and 100 occurrences of "6." Add those up and you get 300.

                  For position #3, there are 100 occurrences of "0," 100 occurrences of "3," and 100 occurrences of "6." Add those up and you get 300.

                  300 (Position #1) + 300 (Position #2) + 300 (Position #3) = 900

                  There are of course 1000 lines total. Thus, P(0|3|6) = 900/1000 = 90%

                  While there may only be X combinations, because repetition can occur and the order of the drawing matters, we must use permutations. Also keep in mind that each position is drawn independently. This one seems like a mind-bender, but in the lottery there is no such thing as paradoxical probability. If you get a result that does not agree with probability, you have likely miscalculated somewhere. Permutations/combinations can play tricks sometimes.

                  If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                  If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                  2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                  P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                    jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                    Park City, UT
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                    Posted: May 10, 2014, 2:26 pm - IP Logged

                    Pick 3 uses permutations, not combinations.

                    For position #1, there are 100 occurrences of "0," 100 occurrences of "3," and 100 occurrences of "6." Add those up and you get 300.

                    For position #2, there are 100 occurrences of "0," 100 occurrences of "3," and 100 occurrences of "6." Add those up and you get 300.

                    For position #3, there are 100 occurrences of "0," 100 occurrences of "3," and 100 occurrences of "6." Add those up and you get 300.

                    300 (Position #1) + 300 (Position #2) + 300 (Position #3) = 900

                    There are of course 1000 lines total. Thus, P(0|3|6) = 900/1000 = 90%

                    While there may only be X combinations, because repetition can occur and the order of the drawing matters, we must use permutations. Also keep in mind that each position is drawn independently. This one seems like a mind-bender, but in the lottery there is no such thing as paradoxical probability. If you get a result that does not agree with probability, you have likely miscalculated somewhere. Permutations/combinations can play tricks sometimes.

                    The probability of not drawing a 0 or 3 or 6 in any position is 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = .343.  So the probability of having a drawing with 0, 3, or 6 would be 1 - .343 = .657 which equals what I posted earlier.  There are only 657 out of of 1000 possible combinations that contain a 0, 3, or 6 so I still don't know how you can claim its 90%?  657 / 1000 = 0.657 or 65.7%

                    Your logic with 900 is flawed because you have overlaps and you are counting the same number more than once.

                    Using LP deflate tool here are the 343 combinations that do not contain 0, 3, 6

                    The probability of any 2 digits hitting is 48.8% not 60%.

                    Jimmy

                      LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
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                      Posted: May 10, 2014, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

                      The probability of not drawing a 0 or 3 or 6 in any position is 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = .343.  So the probability of having a drawing with 0, 3, or 6 would be 1 - .343 = .657 which equals what I posted earlier.  There are only 657 out of of 1000 possible combinations that contain a 0, 3, or 6 so I still don't know how you can claim its 90%?  657 / 1000 = 0.657 or 65.7%

                      Your logic with 900 is flawed because you have overlaps and you are counting the same number more than once.

                      Using LP deflate tool here are the 343 combinations that do not contain 0, 3, 6

                      The probability of any 2 digits hitting is 48.8% not 60%.

                      Jimmy

                      The rules of the system stipulate AND/OR so in my calculations of OR the possibility of AND is included (hence the perceived overlaps). I am treating each digit in each position separately, because there are different types of play (box, straight, pair). Calculating only combinations is useful for only straight play or box play. But the system is not only straight play or box play. I think you're confused with what I am calculating. I am not saying that 90% of drawings (or even combinations) have 0, 3, or 6 in them. I am saying there is a 90% chance that a drawing will have 1 and/or more of those numbers (in my OP I should have clarified repeats etc). There is a difference.

                      For the sake of cooperation (and the fact it was late when I wrote the OPs LOL), let's use your calculation for this exercise:

                      If 657 combinations include any appearance of 0 or 3 or 6, and we are only concerned with hitting at least 1 of these at least in 1 position (technically useless, since you have to match at least 1 other digit in the event of pair play, but anyway.....)

                      That means there is 343 possible non-matching combinations

                      Since the rules state drawing BEFORE, ON, or AFTER this gives us 3 drawings to work with

                      0.343^3 = 0.0404

                      Probability of matching at least 1 digit in any position at least 1 drawing.....

                      1-0.0404= 0.9696

                      96.96%

                      The conclusion is still the SAME.

                      Sidenote:

                      That is the problem with systems. They are typically TOO BROAD in definition.

                      If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                      If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                      2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                      P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1


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                        Posted: May 10, 2014, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

                        That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

                        Interesting, only 657 out of 1000 combinations have a 0, or 3 or 6 in them.

                        Jimmy

                        That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

                         

                        If there is 90% chance that the 0,3,6 will be drawn, than perhaps It would be wise to play them every draw?

                        Hey jimmy, what is so interesting?  Does not 657/1000 = .9?Wink

                        I would like to thank Lotto Metro for his impeccable analysis.Hyper  I will now play $1000 dollars following the "Old Man" knowing I have a 90% chance of being correct!!!!Party

                          jimjwright's avatar - Yellow 3.png
                          Park City, UT
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                          Posted: May 10, 2014, 4:13 pm - IP Logged

                          The rules of the system stipulate AND/OR so in my calculations of OR the possibility of AND is included (hence the perceived overlaps). I am treating each digit in each position separately, because there are different types of play (box, straight, pair). Calculating only combinations is useful for only straight play or box play. But the system is not only straight play or box play. I think you're confused with what I am calculating. I am not saying that 90% of drawings (or even combinations) have 0, 3, or 6 in them. I am saying there is a 90% chance that a drawing will have 1 and/or more of those numbers (in my OP I should have clarified repeats etc). There is a difference.

                          For the sake of cooperation (and the fact it was late when I wrote the OPs LOL), let's use your calculation for this exercise:

                          If 657 combinations include any appearance of 0 or 3 or 6, and we are only concerned with hitting at least 1 of these at least in 1 position (technically useless, since you have to match at least 1 other digit in the event of pair play, but anyway.....)

                          That means there is 343 possible non-matching combinations

                          Since the rules state drawing BEFORE, ON, or AFTER this gives us 3 drawings to work with

                          0.343^3 = 0.0404

                          Probability of matching at least 1 digit in any position at least 1 drawing.....

                          1-0.0404= 0.9696

                          96.96%

                          The conclusion is still the SAME.

                          Sidenote:

                          That is the problem with systems. They are typically TOO BROAD in definition.

                          Okay I am satisfied with my answer and if you are satisfied with your answer that is all that matters.

                          Jimmy


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                            Posted: May 10, 2014, 4:25 pm - IP Logged

                            The rules of the system stipulate AND/OR so in my calculations of OR the possibility of AND is included (hence the perceived overlaps). I am treating each digit in each position separately, because there are different types of play (box, straight, pair). Calculating only combinations is useful for only straight play or box play. But the system is not only straight play or box play. I think you're confused with what I am calculating. I am not saying that 90% of drawings (or even combinations) have 0, 3, or 6 in them. I am saying there is a 90% chance that a drawing will have 1 and/or more of those numbers (in my OP I should have clarified repeats etc). There is a difference.

                            For the sake of cooperation (and the fact it was late when I wrote the OPs LOL), let's use your calculation for this exercise:

                            If 657 combinations include any appearance of 0 or 3 or 6, and we are only concerned with hitting at least 1 of these at least in 1 position (technically useless, since you have to match at least 1 other digit in the event of pair play, but anyway.....)

                            That means there is 343 possible non-matching combinations

                            Since the rules state drawing BEFORE, ON, or AFTER this gives us 3 drawings to work with

                            0.343^3 = 0.0404

                            Probability of matching at least 1 digit in any position at least 1 drawing.....

                            1-0.0404= 0.9696

                            96.96%

                            The conclusion is still the SAME.

                            Sidenote:

                            That is the problem with systems. They are typically TOO BROAD in definition.

                            Jim.  Are you confused?  I don't think Jim is confused.  Jim is a top predictor and a top programmer.

                            I think perhaps charlatans hide behind the complexity of numbers and use the cover to perform insidious immoral actions. Like a flash crash stock broker.

                            LM,  perhaps you should put your effort towards successful winning, and not proving all the ways on how to be a successful loser.

                              LottoMetro's avatar - Lottery-024.jpg
                              Happyland
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                              Member #146344
                              September 1, 2013
                              1129 Posts
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                              Posted: May 10, 2014, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

                              That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

                               

                              If there is 90% chance that the 0,3,6 will be drawn, than perhaps It would be wise to play them every draw?

                              Hey jimmy, what is so interesting?  Does not 657/1000 = .9?Wink

                              I would like to thank Lotto Metro for his impeccable analysis.Hyper  I will now play $1000 dollars following the "Old Man" knowing I have a 90% chance of being correct!!!!Party

                              LOL....smartaleks abound LOL

                              I blame myself for not clarifying and misinterpreting the system, but then again, I am not savvy in "lottery player math." Conehead

                               

                              Jimmy,

                              Contrary to what some believe, I do not automatically dismiss other counterarguments and assume I am correct.

                              I understand how you calculate your probabilities.....multiplying for independent events. Which makes 100% sense when considering the number of lines that feature ANY of the digits 0, 3, or 6. But because the system incorporates AND, this allows for repetition and since order "matters," in this particular case you add the probabilities. 0-3-6 is not the same as 0-6-3. It wouldn't matter for box play but would for pair or straight. Do you get what I'm saying? If the claim states that "any" or "multiple" of these digits will occur in "any" or "multiple" positions, the probability of occurrence is quite high. In reality, the problem here lies not in probabilities but in the definition of the system. It would be much easier/simpler to analyze if it just chose one or the other.

                              If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does.
                              If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

                              2016: -48.28% (13 tickets) ||
                              P&L % = Total Win($)/Total Wager($) - 1

                                 
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