Texas United States Member #86154 January 30, 2010 1648 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 12:41 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by grwurston on May 9, 2014

...historical streaks or patterns offer no usefulness for predicting future streaks or patterns in a random process.

Yes, they do. The lottery is full of patterns. They may occur for a short time over a few draws or over the long term. A perfect example is the "old man's zero trick" (Do a search). Numbers repeating from the previous draw, even numbered doubles hitting 5 times in a row, series numbers appearing in groups, numbers not going more than 10 days without hitting. These are all examples of patterns that happen every day. Any one that doesn't see patterns is not studying or looking at their games hard enough. Granted they are not always this obvious, but they are there. You have to study your game. When you get a hit, ask yourself, "How did I get that, what did I see, what was I thinking?" Write it down, so you don't forget. When a number comes up and you say to yourself, "How did I miss that...?" Do the same thing. It will happen again, you want to be ready when it does. IMO, the biggest reason people lose is because they thought, "Oh, that's not gonna happen." And then it does... And that is random kicking your butt. The more you study your state's game the better player you will become. Learn the nuances. It's all about observation.

Any one that doesn't see patterns is not studying or looking at their games hard enough. Granted they are not always this obvious, but they are there. You have to study your game. When you get a hit, ask yourself, "How did I get that, what did I see, what was I thinking?" Write it down, so you don't forget. When a number comes up and you say to yourself, "How did I miss that...?" Do the same thing. It will happen again, you want to be ready when it does.

grwurston, SIR, you have instructed the masses on how to develop A PROPER SYSTEM here. Everything you've said here follows suite with what I've said in terms of timing, preparedness, discipline, and patience. When it comes to these games, the numbers are not only counted...they are also READ. When a player reads, they are studying what's going on, or, what happened. At some point, everything that's learned must be compiled and that's what teaches a player what to do, when, and how.

I've said here many, many times that I don't play every day, or, even every draw. Why? Because, I'm waiting, looking, and expecting for my particular criteria(s) to show up which is conducive to my approach...Patience, Discipline, Timing. I know for a fact that if anyone is playing everyday and every draw, they are losing big time. No true system allows a player to play everyday...without becoming seriously buried in debt.

As you said, the the game is full of patterns...and even the randomness is predictable. Very good post, man!!

'Match

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

Happyland United States Member #146344 September 1, 2013 1129 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 1:41 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by grwurston on May 9, 2014

...historical streaks or patterns offer no usefulness for predicting future streaks or patterns in a random process.

Yes, they do. The lottery is full of patterns. They may occur for a short time over a few draws or over the long term. A perfect example is the "old man's zero trick" (Do a search). Numbers repeating from the previous draw, even numbered doubles hitting 5 times in a row, series numbers appearing in groups, numbers not going more than 10 days without hitting. These are all examples of patterns that happen every day. Any one that doesn't see patterns is not studying or looking at their games hard enough. Granted they are not always this obvious, but they are there. You have to study your game. When you get a hit, ask yourself, "How did I get that, what did I see, what was I thinking?" Write it down, so you don't forget. When a number comes up and you say to yourself, "How did I miss that...?" Do the same thing. It will happen again, you want to be ready when it does. IMO, the biggest reason people lose is because they thought, "Oh, that's not gonna happen." And then it does... And that is random kicking your butt. The more you study your state's game the better player you will become. Learn the nuances. It's all about observation.

"A perfect example is the "old man's zero trick" (Do a search)"

You mean, a perfect example of a system that does not work?

DEBUNKING "OLD MAN'S ZERO TRICK" by LottoMetro

Claim:

Past occurrences of the digit "0" in Pick3 have a propensity of being preceded or followed by the digit(s) "3" and/or "6" with/without "0."

To be honest, reading the "rules" of this system leaves subject personal interpretation, but I will comment based on my general understanding.

Response:

For simplicity, let's say the lottery draws only once per day. This means that on ANY given day, the number "0" has a 30% chance of showing up. Why? Because each position draws independently from a pool of 10 (0-9), giving each digit a probability of 1/10 or 10% for each position. Three positions, three possible zeros. Likewise, the number "3" has a 30% chance of showing up, and the number "6" has a 30% chance of showing up. That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing, and a 60% chance of either (0,3), (0,6), or (3,6) showing up together in no particular order. Of course, there is a 0.3% chance that either 0-0-0, 3-3-3, or 6-6-6 show up etc etc, but I won't waste time counting permutations.

Now, the claim states that a 3 AND/OR 6 may precede a zero OR follow a zero in the draw BEFORE, ON, or AFTER the day of occurrence. It's a little confusing, but the bottom line is that this is VERY BROAD. Either way, that gives 3 different draws that this "phenomenon" could occur. With a 60% chance of a 3, 6, or 0 mix/match/touch/whatever occurring in any single drawing, that gives a 93.6% chance of it occurring at least once in 3 drawings (this is most likely where the "90%" (alternatively "98%") guarantee/claim comes from).

Calculation:

1-0.60 = 40% chance of not occurring in 1 drawing

0.40^3 = 6.4% chance of not occurring in 3 drawings

1-0.064 = 93.6% chance of occurring at least 1 in 3 drawings

Now, you may say "Wow, that just proves it works 93.6% of the time." No, that only proves that 93.6% of the time, a zero and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in at least 1 of 3 drawings REGARDLESS of what occurred BEFORE that drawing or AFTER. It's the equivalent or pure luck, random chance. Because it is random, you have NO WAY of knowing whether 0 and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in that next drawing. If you play 6, you will kick yourself when that 3 comes up, but mentally you will note how "the system worked"- you just picked the wrong digit. Like I said, the possibilities are quite broad. In the case of playing straight, if you want to play the number 6, you would still have to cover the other 9 numbers in the other positions because 6 could show up with 5, 7, 1, etc.

Other Comments:

In order for a system to be profitable over the long run, the win rate AND payout must be high enough to overcome the House's edge (in this case 50%).

You would need a win rate of 100% and a payout higher than whatever the fair-odds are for the type of play (straight etc) in order to profit over time.

It doesn't matter if you pick the right numbers and win once....unless you stop playing (while ahead) and never play again. Over the long run, the odds rule. You may have periods of time where it seems like you are winning more than you should, but that's just the deception of randomness at play.

Conclusion:

Need I go further? This trick is doing nothing but tricking the player.

Now, I did not say all this to be demeaning...far from my intentions. I believe systems are fun for picking numbers (after all, you've got to come up with them somehow). But I do not believe that systems really "work" in a non-biased drawing, and statistical evidence strongly supports this. As you can see in my explanation above, common beliefs and systems based on such patterns can be readily rejected, or rather appropriately attributed to pure luck.

P.S. I could GO ON about this ALL DAY, but the truth is, most likely you are set in your beliefs (which is perfectly OK btw, and I mean that) and would not be swayed by anything I have to say. To everybody, regardless of what system you use (or don't use), have fun and good luck!

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

United States Member #141034 April 2, 2013 1408 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 1:51 am - IP Logged

No-No-No-No.

Seek and ye shall find -Matt. 7:7 ...Ask and ye shall receive -John 16:24 ...Give and it shall be given unto you -Luke 6:38 ...Be careful what you ask for!!! -Mypiemaster 1:1

Having Money Solves Problems That Not Having Money Creates ****John Carlton****

adelaide sa Australia Member #37136 April 11, 2006 3300 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 2:38 am - IP Logged

my system of having all numbers from my 6/45 game on 8 lines does as advertised. i get all 8 drawn numbers in those 8 lines. unfortunately most of the time i just get 2 on 1 line and it takes the 2 bonus numbers and 1 normal number to actually win a prize.

To be honest, reading the "rules" of this system leaves subject personal interpretation, but I will comment based on my general understanding.

Response:

For simplicity, let's say the lottery draws only once per day. This means that on ANY given day, the number "0" has a 30% chance of showing up. Why? Because each position draws independently from a pool of 10 (0-9), giving each digit a probability of 1/10 or 10% for each position. Three positions, three possible zeros. Likewise, the number "3" has a 30% chance of showing up, and the number "6" has a 30% chance of showing up. That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing, and a 60% chance of either (0,3), (0,6), or (3,6) showing up together in no particular order. Of course, there is a 0.3% chance that either 0-0-0, 3-3-3, or 6-6-6 show up etc etc, but I won't waste time counting permutations.

Now, the claim states that a 3 AND/OR 6 may precede a zero OR follow a zero in the draw BEFORE, ON, or AFTER the day of occurrence. It's a little confusing, but the bottom line is that this is VERY BROAD. Either way, that gives 3 different draws that this "phenomenon" could occur. With a 60% chance of a 3, 6, or 0 mix/match/touch/whatever occurring in any single drawing, that gives a 93.6% chance of it occurring at least once in 3 drawings (this is most likely where the "90%" (alternatively "98%") guarantee/claim comes from).

Calculation:

1-0.60 = 40% chance of not occurring in 1 drawing

0.40^3 = 6.4% chance of not occurring in 3 drawings

1-0.064 = 93.6% chance of occurring at least 1 in 3 drawings

Now, you may say "Wow, that just proves it works 93.6% of the time." No, that only proves that 93.6% of the time, a zero and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in at least 1 of 3 drawings REGARDLESS of what occurred BEFORE that drawing or AFTER. It's the equivalent or pure luck, random chance. Because it is random, you have NO WAY of knowing whether 0 and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in that next drawing. If you play 6, you will kick yourself when that 3 comes up, but mentally you will note how "the system worked"- you just picked the wrong digit. Like I said, the possibilities are quite broad. In the case of playing straight, if you want to play the number 6, you would still have to cover the other 9 numbers in the other positions because 6 could show up with 5, 7, 1, etc.

Other Comments:

In order for a system to be profitable over the long run, the win rate AND payout must be high enough to overcome the House's edge (in this case 50%).

You would need a win rate of 100% and a payout higher than whatever the fair-odds are for the type of play (straight etc) in order to profit over time.

It doesn't matter if you pick the right numbers and win once....unless you stop playing (while ahead) and never play again. Over the long run, the odds rule. You may have periods of time where it seems like you are winning more than you should, but that's just the deception of randomness at play.

Conclusion:

Need I go further? This trick is doing nothing but tricking the player.

Now, I did not say all this to be demeaning...far from my intentions. I believe systems are fun for picking numbers (after all, you've got to come up with them somehow). But I do not believe that systems really "work" in a non-biased drawing, and statistical evidence strongly supports this. As you can see in my explanation above, common beliefs and systems based on such patterns can be readily rejected, or rather appropriately attributed to pure luck.

P.S. I could GO ON about this ALL DAY, but the truth is, most likely you are set in your beliefs (which is perfectly OK btw, and I mean that) and would not be swayed by anything I have to say. To everybody, regardless of what system you use (or don't use), have fun and good luck!

That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

Interesting, only 657 out of 1000 combinations have a 0, or 3 or 6 in them.

Ontario Canada Member #109243 April 9, 2011 31437 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 11:45 am - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by VApoeboy on May 9, 2014

This agrees with my experience and sums up in a few words what it would take me pages and pages to say. In the time I've been closely following the Virginia Pick 3 numbers since the late 1990s, I've seen many methods and systems catch fire, then fizzle out. That's why I developed a rule. I try something until I get bored or I find another method, then I just move on. Right now my favorite method isn't working so I've been doing what many others do and just buying an occasional Quick Pick. I'd never done that before, but no other methods or systems are working for me right now, and that's a fun way to keep my hand in w/out spending a lot of money. However, if I see something interesting happen, I'll drop the QP like a bad habit and jump right on it. Lol.

Oh, one thing I wanted to add about the "trend" thing. One of the first trends I noticed in Virginia was numbers repeating. That used to happen a LOT in Virginia P3, then it eased up. In recent years, it's started up briefly and then stopped again maybe two or three times a year. Still, I know that if I start seeing numbers repeat, I can probably call a hit by picking a number that shows and replaying it from 10 days out to 23 days out after the first time it shows. That's my favorite example of how to win by trend spotting. There's one number in the VA P3, 688, that used to be so easy to get a hit on this way that it was like shooting ducks in a barrel. The trick with 688 was that it didn't wait, it started repeating again the next draw, so you really had to jump right on it. However, no more. That quit happening. End of Trend. Bored. Move on. Get it?

Anyway, as I said, find a trend, whatever the heck it is, and make hay while the sun shines, then hang back and don't get caught up in the trap of wasting your money when nothing is trending. I see a lot of folks doing that chasing the triples (000,111,222,...,999) EVERY draw. Don't do that. That's a money trap to be avoided.

One other thing. Never underestimate the power of intuition. If you're feeling a number, forget about trends and systems and play the number. I tend to get caught up in looking at the numbers a particular way (and not finding anything) at the expense of listening to my intuition. I think I've missed a few flashes of intuition that way and it's something I'm thinking about.

There's one number in the VA P3,688, that used to be so easy to get a hit on this way that it was like shooting ducks in a barrel. The trick with 688 was that it didn't wait, it started repeating again the next draw, so you really had to jump right on it. However, no more. That quit happening. End of Trend. Bored. Move on. Get it?

There are of course 1000 lines total. Thus, P(0|3|6) = 900/1000 = 90%

While there may only be X combinations, because repetition can occur and the order of the drawing matters, we must use permutations. Also keep in mind that each position is drawn independently. This one seems like a mind-bender, but in the lottery there is no such thing as paradoxical probability. If you get a result that does not agree with probability, you have likely miscalculated somewhere. Permutations/combinations can play tricks sometimes.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

There are of course 1000 lines total. Thus, P(0|3|6) = 900/1000 = 90%

While there may only be X combinations, because repetition can occur and the order of the drawing matters, we must use permutations. Also keep in mind that each position is drawn independently. This one seems like a mind-bender, but in the lottery there is no such thing as paradoxical probability. If you get a result that does not agree with probability, you have likely miscalculated somewhere. Permutations/combinations can play tricks sometimes.

The probability of not drawing a 0 or 3 or 6 in any position is 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = .343. So the probability of having a drawing with 0, 3, or 6 would be 1 - .343 = .657 which equals what I posted earlier. There are only 657 out of of 1000 possible combinations that contain a 0, 3, or 6 so I still don't know how you can claim its 90%? 657 / 1000 = 0.657 or 65.7%

Your logic with 900 is flawed because you have overlaps and you are counting the same number more than once.

Using LP deflate tool here are the 343 combinations that do not contain 0, 3, 6

The probability of any 2 digits hitting is 48.8% not 60%.

Happyland United States Member #146344 September 1, 2013 1129 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 3:50 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimjwright on May 10, 2014

The probability of not drawing a 0 or 3 or 6 in any position is 0.7 * 0.7 * 0.7 = .343. So the probability of having a drawing with 0, 3, or 6 would be 1 - .343 = .657 which equals what I posted earlier. There are only 657 out of of 1000 possible combinations that contain a 0, 3, or 6 so I still don't know how you can claim its 90%? 657 / 1000 = 0.657 or 65.7%

Your logic with 900 is flawed because you have overlaps and you are counting the same number more than once.

Using LP deflate tool here are the 343 combinations that do not contain 0, 3, 6

The probability of any 2 digits hitting is 48.8% not 60%.

Jimmy

The rules of the system stipulate AND/OR so in my calculations of OR the possibility of AND is included (hence the perceived overlaps). I am treating each digit in each position separately, because there are different types of play (box, straight, pair). Calculating only combinations is useful for only straight play or box play. But the system is not only straight play or box play. I think you're confused with what I am calculating. I am not saying that 90% of drawings (or even combinations) have 0, 3, or 6 in them. I am saying there is a 90% chance that a drawing will have 1 and/or more of those numbers (in my OP I should have clarified repeats etc). There is a difference.

For the sake of cooperation (and the fact it was late when I wrote the OPs LOL), let's use your calculation for this exercise:

If 657 combinations include any appearance of 0 or 3 or 6, and we are only concerned with hitting at least 1 of these at least in 1 position (technically useless, since you have to match at least 1 other digit in the event of pair play, but anyway.....)

That means there is 343 possible non-matching combinations

Since the rules state drawing BEFORE, ON, or AFTER this gives us 3 drawings to work with

0.343^3 = 0.0404

Probability of matching at least 1 digit in any position at least 1 drawing.....

1-0.0404= 0.9696

96.96%

The conclusion is still the SAME.

Sidenote:

That is the problem with systems. They are typically TOO BROAD in definition.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?

United States Member #124493 March 14, 2012 7023 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by jimjwright on May 10, 2014

That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

Interesting, only 657 out of 1000 combinations have a 0, or 3 or 6 in them.

Jimmy

That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

If there is 90% chance that the 0,3,6 will be drawn, than perhaps It would be wise to play them every draw?

Hey jimmy, what is so interesting? Does not 657/1000 = .9?

I would like to thank Lotto Metro for his impeccable analysis. I will now play $1000 dollars following the "Old Man" knowing I have a 90% chance of being correct!!!!

Park City, UT United States Member #69864 January 18, 2009 993 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 4:13 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on May 10, 2014

The rules of the system stipulate AND/OR so in my calculations of OR the possibility of AND is included (hence the perceived overlaps). I am treating each digit in each position separately, because there are different types of play (box, straight, pair). Calculating only combinations is useful for only straight play or box play. But the system is not only straight play or box play. I think you're confused with what I am calculating. I am not saying that 90% of drawings (or even combinations) have 0, 3, or 6 in them. I am saying there is a 90% chance that a drawing will have 1 and/or more of those numbers (in my OP I should have clarified repeats etc). There is a difference.

For the sake of cooperation (and the fact it was late when I wrote the OPs LOL), let's use your calculation for this exercise:

If 657 combinations include any appearance of 0 or 3 or 6, and we are only concerned with hitting at least 1 of these at least in 1 position (technically useless, since you have to match at least 1 other digit in the event of pair play, but anyway.....)

That means there is 343 possible non-matching combinations

Since the rules state drawing BEFORE, ON, or AFTER this gives us 3 drawings to work with

0.343^3 = 0.0404

Probability of matching at least 1 digit in any position at least 1 drawing.....

1-0.0404= 0.9696

96.96%

The conclusion is still the SAME.

Sidenote:

That is the problem with systems. They are typically TOO BROAD in definition.

Okay I am satisfied with my answer and if you are satisfied with your answer that is all that matters.

United States Member #124493 March 14, 2012 7023 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 4:25 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on May 10, 2014

The rules of the system stipulate AND/OR so in my calculations of OR the possibility of AND is included (hence the perceived overlaps). I am treating each digit in each position separately, because there are different types of play (box, straight, pair). Calculating only combinations is useful for only straight play or box play. But the system is not only straight play or box play. I think you're confused with what I am calculating. I am not saying that 90% of drawings (or even combinations) have 0, 3, or 6 in them. I am saying there is a 90% chance that a drawing will have 1 and/or more of those numbers (in my OP I should have clarified repeats etc). There is a difference.

For the sake of cooperation (and the fact it was late when I wrote the OPs LOL), let's use your calculation for this exercise:

If 657 combinations include any appearance of 0 or 3 or 6, and we are only concerned with hitting at least 1 of these at least in 1 position (technically useless, since you have to match at least 1 other digit in the event of pair play, but anyway.....)

That means there is 343 possible non-matching combinations

Since the rules state drawing BEFORE, ON, or AFTER this gives us 3 drawings to work with

0.343^3 = 0.0404

Probability of matching at least 1 digit in any position at least 1 drawing.....

1-0.0404= 0.9696

96.96%

The conclusion is still the SAME.

Sidenote:

That is the problem with systems. They are typically TOO BROAD in definition.

Jim. Are you confused? I don't think Jim is confused. Jim is a top predictor and a top programmer.

I think perhaps charlatans hide behind the complexity of numbers and use the cover to perform insidious immoral actions. Like a flash crash stock broker.

LM, perhaps you should put your effort towards successful winning, and not proving all the ways on how to be a successful loser.

Happyland United States Member #146344 September 1, 2013 1129 Posts Offline

Posted: May 10, 2014, 4:27 pm - IP Logged

Quote: Originally posted by LottoBoner on May 10, 2014

That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing.

If there is 90% chance that the 0,3,6 will be drawn, than perhaps It would be wise to play them every draw?

Hey jimmy, what is so interesting? Does not 657/1000 = .9?

I would like to thank Lotto Metro for his impeccable analysis. I will now play $1000 dollars following the "Old Man" knowing I have a 90% chance of being correct!!!!

LOL....smartaleks abound

I blame myself for not clarifying and misinterpreting the system, but then again, I am not savvy in "lottery player math."

Jimmy,

Contrary to what some believe, I do not automatically dismiss other counterarguments and assume I am correct.

I understand how you calculate your probabilities.....multiplying for independent events. Which makes 100% sense when considering the number of lines that feature ANY of the digits 0, 3, or 6. But because the system incorporates AND, this allows for repetition and since order "matters," in this particular case you add the probabilities. 0-3-6 is not the same as 0-6-3. It wouldn't matter for box play but would for pair or straight. Do you get what I'm saying? If the claim states that "any" or "multiple" of these digits will occur in "any" or "multiple" positions, the probability of occurrence is quite high. In reality, the problem here lies not in probabilities but in the definition of the system. It would be much easier/simpler to analyze if it just chose one or the other.

If the chances of winning the jackpot are so slim, why play when the jackpot is so small? Your chances never change, but the potential payoff does. If a crystal ball showed you the future of the rest of your life, and in that future you will never win a jackpot, would you still play?