Quote: Originally posted by LottoMetro on May 10, 2014
"A perfect example is the "old man's zero trick" (Do a search)"
You mean, a perfect example of a system that does not work?
DEBUNKING "OLD MAN'S ZERO TRICK" by LottoMetro
Claim:
Past occurrences of the digit "0" in Pick3 have a propensity of being preceded or followed by the digit(s) "3" and/or "6" with/without "0."
Posted here: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/86692 and here: https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/98074
Also blogged here: https://www.lotterypost.com/blogentry/64080
Sidenote:
To be honest, reading the "rules" of this system leaves subject personal interpretation, but I will comment based on my general understanding.
Response:
For simplicity, let's say the lottery draws only once per day. This means that on ANY given day, the number "0" has a 30% chance of showing up. Why? Because each position draws independently from a pool of 10 (0-9), giving each digit a probability of 1/10 or 10% for each position. Three positions, three possible zeros. Likewise, the number "3" has a 30% chance of showing up, and the number "6" has a 30% chance of showing up. That gives us a 90% chance of one of these three digits (0, 3, 6) showing up in any given drawing, and a 60% chance of either (0,3), (0,6), or (3,6) showing up together in no particular order. Of course, there is a 0.3% chance that either 0-0-0, 3-3-3, or 6-6-6 show up etc etc, but I won't waste time counting permutations.
Now, the claim states that a 3 AND/OR 6 may precede a zero OR follow a zero in the draw BEFORE, ON, or AFTER the day of occurrence. It's a little confusing, but the bottom line is that this is VERY BROAD. Either way, that gives 3 different draws that this "phenomenon" could occur. With a 60% chance of a 3, 6, or 0 mix/match/touch/whatever occurring in any single drawing, that gives a 93.6% chance of it occurring at least once in 3 drawings (this is most likely where the "90%" (alternatively "98%") guarantee/claim comes from).
Calculation:
1-0.60 = 40% chance of not occurring in 1 drawing
0.40^3 = 6.4% chance of not occurring in 3 drawings
1-0.064 = 93.6% chance of occurring at least 1 in 3 drawings
Now, you may say "Wow, that just proves it works 93.6% of the time." No, that only proves that 93.6% of the time, a zero and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in at least 1 of 3 drawings REGARDLESS of what occurred BEFORE that drawing or AFTER. It's the equivalent or pure luck, random chance. Because it is random, you have NO WAY of knowing whether 0 and/or 3 and/or 6 will occur in that next drawing. If you play 6, you will kick yourself when that 3 comes up, but mentally you will note how "the system worked"- you just picked the wrong digit. Like I said, the possibilities are quite broad. In the case of playing straight, if you want to play the number 6, you would still have to cover the other 9 numbers in the other positions because 6 could show up with 5, 7, 1, etc.
Other Comments:
In order for a system to be profitable over the long run, the win rate AND payout must be high enough to overcome the House's edge (in this case 50%).
You would need a win rate of 100% and a payout higher than whatever the fair-odds are for the type of play (straight etc) in order to profit over time.
It doesn't matter if you pick the right numbers and win once....unless you stop playing (while ahead) and never play again. Over the long run, the odds rule. You may have periods of time where it seems like you are winning more than you should, but that's just the deception of randomness at play.
Conclusion:
Need I go further? This trick is doing nothing but tricking the player.
Now, I did not say all this to be demeaning...far from my intentions. I believe systems are fun for picking numbers (after all, you've got to come up with them somehow). But I do not believe that systems really "work" in a non-biased drawing, and statistical evidence strongly supports this. As you can see in my explanation above, common beliefs and systems based on such patterns can be readily rejected, or rather appropriately attributed to pure luck.
P.S. I could GO ON about this ALL DAY, but the truth is, most likely you are set in your beliefs (which is perfectly OK btw, and I mean that) and would not be swayed by anything I have to say. To everybody, regardless of what system you use (or don't use), have fun and good luck!