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Basics of a Successful System

Topic closed. 177 replies. Last post 5 months ago by RJOh.

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lakerben's avatar - spherewall
New Mexico
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Posted: June 12, 2016, 3:56 pm - IP Logged

Sorry but:

Is this thread now degenerating?

Is it a circus now?

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How about them cowboys!

 

 

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    Posted: June 12, 2016, 3:59 pm - IP Logged

    Thank you, MonEl, for obliging me...honestly. I do agree that a 'fresh' prediction list for every draw is logical but, what I'm doing here is establishing a baseline for an unchanged list just as I did in the link I provided to another similar experiment. Difference is that your betting strategy will be applied and I believe you're doing the $.50 6-way boxed + str8 option. You did fudge a bit with (25) numbers when the original model touted is based on (20) but, I'll meet you and use the (25) from the random list. Fair? Also, since Virginia does offer 'pair play' on Pick3 and Texas doesn't, I'll simply apply the strategy to the very last (6) draws on this state as it offers more ways to win something. I also see that as fair and please refer to their prize page to validate my accuracy. Lastly, you didn't disclose a bankroll amount to start with so I'll use $80 like I did before. We begin on 6/09 and end on 6/11, okay. The winning numbers are as follows:

     

                             Day                  Night

    6/09                215                   664

    6/10                980                   851

    6/11                542                   035

     

    Okay, # 21 on the list (215) is a boxed match for the 6/09 midday draw. So, my $80.00 - $12.50 cost = $67.50 remaining. I win the $40.00 payout which now gives me a new total of $107.50 to work with which is a $27.50 profit. Now, I'm going to 'raise them' to a $1.00 bet for the 6/09 night draw which will cost me $25.00 to play. $107.50 balance - $25.00 cost = $82.50 remaining. The night draw is a bust (664) with no matches at all so I'm out of $25.00, and, that loss cut directly into the $27.50 profit won on the first draw. In reality, I now have only a $2.50 profit to add to my original principle bankroll of $80.00 for a total of $82.50. Are you with me? Okay. For the next draw, I'm raising them again to a $2.00 bet which will cost me $50.00 to play. So, an $82.50 balance - $50.00 cost = $32.50 remaining. The strategy and list play well together on the 6/10 midday with (980) as it matched rear pairs from #19 (680) on the list and split pairs (900) from #25 on the list. Aren't you glad I didn't hold you to only the first (20) numbers?

    What we have now is a $200.00 total payout for both pairs because the $1.00 prize is $50.00 for pairs...not bad at all! At this point, I add the $200.00 to my $32.50 for a new total of $232.50 to work with while recovering and capitalizing on that $25.00 previous loss. My $232.50 new balance - my original principle of $80.00 = a true profit of $152.50. These are the raw numbers. For the 6/10 night draw, I'll raise 'em again to a $4.00 bet which will cost me $100.00. Alright, $232.50 balance - $100.00 cost = $132.50 remaining and, yep, #1 on the list (857) locked in the front pairs for a $200.00 payout. Pairs is the player's best friend, trust me. The new numbers are a $132.50 last balance + the $200.00 payout for a $332.50 new bankroll. When I subtract my original $80.00 from that, my true current profit is $252.50. Next, I'm gonna push 'em again to an $8.00 bet 'cause hell, I ain't mad at NOBODY! My out of pocket here is $200.00 and that taken from the $332.50 leaves me $132.50 again.

    The 6/11 midday is just plain off tha' chain!!! The list matched (254) BOXED TWICE on #12 and # 14!!! Then, #11 (742) got the rear pairs! Finally, #15 (541) zeroed in on the front pairs!! Let's count this money! At $8.00/number boxed payout, we have $1,280.00 for the two boxed hits ($640.00 X 2) and $800.00 on the pair hits ($400.00 X 2) for a total win of $2,080.00! That added to $132.50 gives me a new grand total of $2,212.50 in bankroll...and this is how MonEl rolls!! Again, when I subtract my $80.00 principle, I have made a true profit of $2,132.50 and we're talking in only a matter of (5) draws so far. This is great but, there's a caveat to it in the end. Okay, time for the last draw on 6/11 at night and I'm gonna try and take the whole dang ATM machine on a $16.00 bet!!! I'm at the top of this ladder and I'm looking back down at where I came from...$80.00. Mind you, the house has been doing all the heavy lifting this whole time via my profit.

    My cost to run the list now on a $16 bet is $400.00 which is about +- 1/5 of my total bankroll. This is completely doable as the house is using its' own money...make or break. Unfortunately, the last draw produced nothing on any positions (035) so I'm taking a profit hit as the house recovers $400.00 of its' payouts to me. As such, my $2,212.50 bankroll - the $400.00 cost and loss leaves me with a balance of $1812.50 start to finish. The 'clean' and true profit realized here is $1,732.50 ($1,812.50 - $80.00 principle of my own money). Either way, we're talking about a lot of money made here with a list that's random, according to MonEl, and applying a very serious wagering strategy that could've also went very wrong. It's easy to look at what we did here and say, "Man he actually only spent $12.50 to make all that money and just progressively betted his way to two grand!!" However, if we examine the numbers very closely early on, we can easily see where had I lost again after my $50.00 bet @ $2.00, I would've had to 'regressive bet' back down to $1.00 because I didn't have enough to cover the next $100.00 progressive bet with the $32.50 balance. This thing can go either way and there's no guarantee on how much of win will be realized at any point during the betting in this game. Then, the fact that I used a state which pays on pairs helped A BUNCH because if we deduct all the pairs which totaled $1,000.00 alone, we then have a true profit of $732.50. The alternate list of self picked numbers also has some hits in it. It started off well with two split pairs matched (235) and (245) on the 6/09 midday and you can analyze from there.

    I requested the list so that I could illustrate how all the numbers actually work from a cost/return/loss financial perspective, okay. This wasn't to take a jab at you or anything like that. As you can see, our numbers vastly differ because I'm applying real time math to EACH PLAY based on what happens with the money. You seem to apply a 'blanket' scenario to the list based on guarantees...there's a big difference. Anyhow, thanks for obliging me. People that may not be good with math need to see studies like this and I honestly enjoy crunching numbers as you can see. Later.

    Maybe you are trying to see if somebody who is not an expert at making pick 3 predictions can win using 25 random numbers.

    Maybe you was lucky there.

    I myself would not have tried to do it in that way, for myself that is.

    Either I know how to predict or I just don't play at all.

      sweetie7398's avatar - flower2
      South Carolina
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      Posted: June 12, 2016, 4:00 pm - IP Logged

      https://www.lotterypost.com/thread/303872/4639473

      It is all on the particular "Prediction Logic"

      Why use a prediction logic that includes pre aand post test? When you don't have to?

      Use only the "real" winning numbers.

      "Things" are RELATIVE.

      It is on your control to use exactly what you want, why make things harder than they have to be?

      Things are so "relative" that you can use only the drawing that you want to predict or:

      If a game has 2 daily drawings you can use the last daily drawing to predict for the next drawing, such as Day to Night and or Night to Day, if you don't want to use Day to Day and Night to Night.

      "Things" are relative, they really are, you can even predict if you want to, but it is really crazy to do so:

      Monday drawing to Monday drawing, using only Mondays past winning numbers.

      Tuesday drawing to Tuesday drawing, using only Tuesdays past winning numbers.

      Wednesday drawing to Wednesday drawing using only past winning draws from every past Wednesday.

      After all "Things" are relative, they really are.

      Etc, but Why complicate things more than you have to?

      The only thing that counts is the "Prediction" logic.

      Trash in = Trash out.

      Wrong prediction logic = wrong predicted numbers.

      But even with the "Right" prediction logic, you will not win all of the time, that is why you also need to know when and how to bet.

      Information is free here on L.P.

      Read and read again, till you go blind and or understand that which you read.

      The very truth is that one pick 3 digit doesn't have anything at all to do with any other pick 3 digit anywhere, yes aywhere at all.

      It is all relative in truth.

      The only thing at all that connects and relates any one digit with any other digit anywhere is "Statistics".

      Wonderful insightWink

      Life, love, family Love

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        Posted: June 12, 2016, 4:02 pm - IP Logged

        I've never signed a ticket for a win below $600...you turn in and the clerk hands you cash...absolutely nothing to trace..

        Both of you are right!

        I should not, but I do side with bigdaddy on this.

          malin1257's avatar - 8ball
          Antwerp
          Belgium
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          Posted: June 12, 2016, 4:05 pm - IP Logged

          I've never signed a ticket for a win below $600...you turn in and the clerk hands you cash...absolutely nothing to trace..

          Hello bigdaddy,

          You sign your post off with "pi is the way".  Please explain how pi, 3.14 or 22/7 play in choosing lottery numbers.  Just looking for lottery number tips.

          malin

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            Posted: June 12, 2016, 4:09 pm - IP Logged

            Wonderful insightWink

            Thanks!

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: June 12, 2016, 4:24 pm - IP Logged

              Every month somebody will say their 50 predictions are "good in all states for the entire month" and I'm assuming that means they will get at least one box hit in every state within the next 30 - 31 days. The problem is this type of predictor doesn't use LP's prediction page and their claims are usually never verified.

              In 2013 I successfully predicted at least one box win in every state/jurisdiction using 20 lines. While the overall play was at a substantial loss, the prize ratio was 52.1% and slightly better than probability.

              That doesn't surprise me as I also watch the prediction board to see which LP members make an honest effort to back their claims and have found most come close to the probabilities of the games they predict.  The problem is one has to exceed those amounts by quite a bit to show a profit.

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

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                Posted: June 12, 2016, 4:43 pm - IP Logged

                I took a quick look and I would not be able to win with a random list of 25 box numbers, not if the list was really random 100%, not even with progressive betting.

                  amber123's avatar - OpIFNim

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                  Posted: June 12, 2016, 4:54 pm - IP Logged

                  I've never signed a ticket for a win below $600...you turn in and the clerk hands you cash...absolutely nothing to trace..

                  Oh I'm aware of this, just wanted to let people know that ALL income is taxable. The IRS just doesn't bother to go after people below 600, or even a little more, not worth their time.

                    Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                    Texas
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                    Posted: June 12, 2016, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

                    Maybe you are trying to see if somebody who is not an expert at making pick 3 predictions can win using 25 random numbers.

                    Maybe you was lucky there.

                    I myself would not have tried to do it in that way, for myself that is.

                    Either I know how to predict or I just don't play at all.

                    Maybe I was simply testing one of the two progressive theories that YOU voluntarily put out. I only asked if you'd provide some numbers to work with and held you to nothing in stone in terms of wins...it was a study. I wasn't lucky on anything here because this was YOUR deal from start to finish...numbers, model and all. You say that you wouldn't have tried to play this way, for yourself that is, but you came out so strongly against me when I initially said it wasn't good strategy. You then went on to provide two models for progressive betting, and, had so much confidence in your model and profits that you asked, ARE WE O.K. NOW? That's when I asked you to step up.

                    You seem to know an awful lot and possess the ability to turn huge profits with your progressive strategy and a dedicated list for each draw. The study clearly shows a nice profit for even a random list, right? My question is with this level of expertise and confidence, why would you come here and offer an example of something that produces and you don't even play to make the money? I mean, I saw the whole LANTERN-EXCALIBUR deal and all that but, it's still questionable. Who passes up money that THEY KNOW they can make? Anyone that knows how to save money can save up enough bankroll to implement an approach they obviously have confidence in...like yours. In your most recent post, you said the following:

                    "I took a quick look and I would not be able to win with a random list of 25 box numbers, not if the list was really random 100%, not even with progressive betting.

                    How is that when the random list of (25) numbers I just used from you along with your progressive betting model turned the profits in question? Why would you offer a confident example of something that you wouldn't even use yourself? I want to understand.

                    Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                    There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                    #lotto-4-a-living

                      ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

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                      Posted: June 12, 2016, 5:33 pm - IP Logged

                      Maybe I was simply testing one of the two progressive theories that YOU voluntarily put out. I only asked if you'd provide some numbers to work with and held you to nothing in stone in terms of wins...it was a study. I wasn't lucky on anything here because this was YOUR deal from start to finish...numbers, model and all. You say that you wouldn't have tried to play this way, for yourself that is, but you came out so strongly against me when I initially said it wasn't good strategy. You then went on to provide two models for progressive betting, and, had so much confidence in your model and profits that you asked, ARE WE O.K. NOW? That's when I asked you to step up.

                      You seem to know an awful lot and possess the ability to turn huge profits with your progressive strategy and a dedicated list for each draw. The study clearly shows a nice profit for even a random list, right? My question is with this level of expertise and confidence, why would you come here and offer an example of something that produces and you don't even play to make the money? I mean, I saw the whole LANTERN-EXCALIBUR deal and all that but, it's still questionable. Who passes up money that THEY KNOW they can make? Anyone that knows how to save money can save up enough bankroll to implement an approach they obviously have confidence in...like yours. In your most recent post, you said the following:

                      "I took a quick look and I would not be able to win with a random list of 25 box numbers, not if the list was really random 100%, not even with progressive betting.

                      How is that when the random list of (25) numbers I just used from you along with your progressive betting model turned the profits in question? Why would you offer a confident example of something that you wouldn't even use yourself? I want to understand.

                      Did you run a backtest yet? Take any random set of 20 numbers and check them against some state's past results for a month or 2. It's soon obvious where the weakness in progressive betting lies. And why MonEl had to add the caveat of being able to predict a winner within 6 draws. Get a loosing streak of 10 or 12 or more draws and you have to play tens of thousands each time. Probably not even possible to get a clerk to run that many tickets, even for the select few who'd have the funds to do so. 

                       

                      Ever hear of a Martingale system?

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                        Kentucky
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                        Posted: June 12, 2016, 5:37 pm - IP Logged

                        Yadda, yadda, yadda, but still no explanation of how your theories prevent any three digit number from being drawn.

                        When did I ever write that the three digit number was prevented from being drawn because of tests? Is it really that difficult for you to get it? The tests augment the random outcome. It's strange how you never address the points I bring up. 

                         

                        "A person on LP already posted straight from Florida's pre test and post test protocols and it's ridiculous."

                        You seriously have comprehension issues. 

                        I highly doubt a copy and paste from the Florida website is a conspiracy theory. With all due respect I highly suggest you take basic reading English class again because what you reply with is so diametrically opposed to just about everything I'm talking about.

                        Yeah I can prove  that it's not random. Ready????????????????????????????????????????????

                        WHEN AN OUTSIDE FORCE LIKE A HUMAN INTERFERES WITH A NATURAL EVENT SET IN PLACE, IT'S NO LONGER RANDOM.

                         

                        If I drop a basketball and let it keep bouncing, gravity and other NATURAL forces will eventually make the ball stop bouncing. On the other hand, If I keep dribbling the ball, I've changed the NATURAL outcome of the final result.

                        Let me know if this explained it for ya. If not, i can draw pictures with crayons. ROFL

                        You previous said:

                        "A person on LP already posted straight from Florida's pre test and post test protocols and it's ridiculous."

                        And this is what's on really on the the Florida web site:

                        Florida Lottery drawings are conducted under strict security guidelines and procedures. A Lottery draw manager and an auditor from an independent auditing firm attend and participate in every drawing. These two individuals report to the draw studio at least 90 minutes prior to the actual drawing. The Lottery draw studio and draw equipment vault are located in the basement of the Lottery Headquarters building, which is a secure and limited access facility. This area is also under 24-hour video surveillance. The Lottery draw manager is employed by the Florida Lottery as a special agent and is a certified law enforcement officer. The draw manager and auditor complete a detailed checklist that thoroughly scrutinizes all aspects of each drawing. Currently, there are three draw machines and six ball sets available for each of the Lottery's five Draw game drawings. The machine and ball set to be used for a particular drawing is selected at random just prior to the drawing. Ball sets are weighed before and after each drawing to ensure that there's not been any tampering with the ball set and a series of pre-tests are also conducted to ensure the machines are working properly. All Florida Lottery drawings are open to the public.

                        But according to you the Florida Lottery process is "ridiculous".

                        "Yeah I can prove that it's not random."

                        Don't be stupid! At best you can prove it's not random according to you (just like according to you their "protocols are ridiulous") when we all know by buying a ticket we are agreeing to abide by the LOTTERY'S RULES. Like I said before, if you don't like the way the Florida Lottery conducts business, don't play their games.

                        "You seriously have comprehension issues."

                        You're correct, I can't comprehend the gibborish and nonsense you're posting. "I was taught from a long time ago that the progressive wagering purpose is NOT necessarily to make a huge profit when you win, but rather an insurance program which guarantees a profit." To the contrary, the idea of a progressive wagering system is to minimum loses and maximum wins.

                        "All income is taxable, even below 600 bucks. Even if you walk your neighbor's dog once a month for 10 bucks, it's taxable. All types of income regardless of the amount."

                        Basically you're saying the IRS requires anybody having a yard sale to record the earnings. Should we take your word for it or what the IRS says?

                        IMO you don't have enough credibility to speak for the IRS or the authority to decide how Florida or any lottery defines random.

                          Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
                          Texas
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                          Posted: June 12, 2016, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

                          Did you run a backtest yet? Take any random set of 20 numbers and check them against some state's past results for a month or 2. It's soon obvious where the weakness in progressive betting lies. And why MonEl had to add the caveat of being able to predict a winner within 6 draws. Get a loosing streak of 10 or 12 or more draws and you have to play tens of thousands each time. Probably not even possible to get a clerk to run that many tickets, even for the select few who'd have the funds to do so. 

                           

                          Ever hear of a Martingale system?

                          Yes, I absolutely did conduct a thorough back test. I used the state of Virginia's last (6) draws beginning on 6/09 and ending on 6/11 both midday and evening draws. My study is a few posts back and, while a little lengthy, it is very accurate and easy to understand. Also, I used everything he offered to conduct the study...all I did was narrate the outcomes of each draw with a dollar amount based on his strategy. The thing is, though, it produced a lot of money but it's just not logical which is what I initially said. The idea of increasing the bet amount while in a dry spell sounds good in theory but, is senseless unless you do have an enormous bankroll to cover all the losses while still hoping for a grand hit. No grand hit = major deficit in a very, very short period of time. I've have always been more interested in RECOVERY than in PROFIT because the first will automatically produce the latter with good timing, opportunity, and the funds to capitalize as such. When you don't recover, you're coming out your pocket again.

                          Small profits add up quickly but, progressive betting will eat them up quickly because you're doubling up on the cost to play which takes all or most of your profit in the process. I'd much, much rather need to lose ten times or so and be back at my own principle investment than to have a serious deficit after only two losses. It's just good insurance to bet safely because this is, after all said and done, chance. Check the study out if you find some time.

                          Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

                          There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

                          #lotto-4-a-living

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                            Kentucky
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                            Posted: June 12, 2016, 6:33 pm - IP Logged

                            That doesn't surprise me as I also watch the prediction board to see which LP members make an honest effort to back their claims and have found most come close to the probabilities of the games they predict.  The problem is one has to exceed those amounts by quite a bit to show a profit.

                            Predicting 50 straight/box pick-3 lines for a month in just one state could mean up to 300 predictions with 62 chances to match the drawing. By matching 250 of those combos boxed results in a loss, but that's how pick-3 predictions work. It's probably better to check how many $290 and $330 a predictor gets to get a more accurate reading.

                            It's just a strange coincidence some of the members making lots of claims about their systems don't post their predictions results for all to see.

                              ArizonaDream's avatar - Lottery-009.jpg

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                              Posted: June 12, 2016, 7:44 pm - IP Logged

                              Yes, I absolutely did conduct a thorough back test. I used the state of Virginia's last (6) draws beginning on 6/09 and ending on 6/11 both midday and evening draws. My study is a few posts back and, while a little lengthy, it is very accurate and easy to understand. Also, I used everything he offered to conduct the study...all I did was narrate the outcomes of each draw with a dollar amount based on his strategy. The thing is, though, it produced a lot of money but it's just not logical which is what I initially said. The idea of increasing the bet amount while in a dry spell sounds good in theory but, is senseless unless you do have an enormous bankroll to cover all the losses while still hoping for a grand hit. No grand hit = major deficit in a very, very short period of time. I've have always been more interested in RECOVERY than in PROFIT because the first will automatically produce the latter with good timing, opportunity, and the funds to capitalize as such. When you don't recover, you're coming out your pocket again.

                              Small profits add up quickly but, progressive betting will eat them up quickly because you're doubling up on the cost to play which takes all or most of your profit in the process. I'd much, much rather need to lose ten times or so and be back at my own principle investment than to have a serious deficit after only two losses. It's just good insurance to bet safely because this is, after all said and done, chance. Check the study out if you find some time.

                              I did miss your earlier post, but that's ok, I ran enough numbers myself to see how it plays out.

                                 
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