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What's with NY Sweet Million??

Topic closed. 516 replies. Last post 5 years ago by kapla.

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Posted: December 23, 2010, 1:35 am - IP Logged

Look at all the repeat numbers this month???

Question is will they continue to repeat?

 12/20/2010 121819232530
 12/16/2010 101819213740
 12/13/2010 050826313334
 12/09/2010 011628313639
 12/06/2010 192324313638
 12/02/2010 010409283334

Hot numbers - 4 & 24

Cold numbers - 5 & 20

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    Posted: December 26, 2010, 8:11 pm - IP Logged

    Played my SW #'s tonight to take advantage of the buy $5 get $3 free...

    and we had one repeat the 19 (three in a ROW!) and one skip repeat which was the 40

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      Posted: December 31, 2010, 9:57 pm - IP Logged

      Looking at the odds and the prizes that have been won recently it looks like there have been roughly 400,000 tickets sold for recent drawings. Based on that we should expect that on average there will be about 1 winner for every 10 drawings.

      Why do you think the above? Isn't every draw treated on it's own? meaning that perticular lottery draw needs to sell enough tickets so one of them hits one of the 4 million combinations possible?(do not depend upon the subsequent draws to add up to 4 million lottery sales) Lottery doesn't pre-print any tickets right? numbers are either randomly generated (quick picks) or picked by the people and then the lottery pulls the balls. This also technically means that even if there is only one ticket sold and this sole ticket could be jackpot winner. Can someone confirm this?

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        NEW YORK
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        Posted: January 4, 2011, 1:39 pm - IP Logged

        Please bear with me; I am going to post a lengthy description of odds calculations for multiple ticket purchases.  Please follow the logic, and don't get frustrated.

        Some folks here are having a difficult time with the mathematics of odds calculations. My guess is that dealing with huge numbers is causing a problem for them.

        Maybe if we talk about small numbers, things will become clear.

        After all, the subject of mathematics works the same way no matter how big or small the numbers are.

        For example, 1 + 1 = 2, and 10 + 10 = 20, and 1,000,000 + 1,000,000 = 2,000,000.  The same concept works, no matter how big the numbers are.  It works the same for addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division.

        A Small Example

        Now then, let's take our odds calculation into the realm of "tens" instead of "millions" of calculations, and then we'll ramp up the discussion back to millions once we have the concepts down.

        Let's say our lottery has a total of 10 numbers being selected from a drum, and you buy one ticket. Your odds of winning on that ticket are 1 in 10. I think everyone can agree with that statement.

        It is the same as saying you have covered one-tenth of the possible combinations. In other words, an odds statement is a fraction — "one over 10", or 1/10. You can do the division (1 divided by 10) to say I have a "0.1" chance of winning. And as we also know, decimals can be expressed as percentages by simply moving the decimal place two positions to the right. So our "0.1" chance of winning becomes 10%.

        That is all easy to understand when dealing with small numbers, especially tens. We have expressed our odds of winning in four different ways:

        • 1 in 10 (a traditional odds statement)
        • 1/10 (a fraction)
        • 0.1 (a decimal)
        • 10% (a percentage — we have covered 10% of the possible combinations)

        All of those four ways should be easily and quickly agreed upon by all. The concept of 1 in 10 chances is very easy to understand and express.

        Buying More Tickets

        OK, so we buy 2 tickets for the drawing. Let's express those two tickets in the same four ways as we did for our 1-ticket purchase:

        • 2 in 10
        • 2/10
        • 0.2
        • 20% — we have covered 20% of the possible combinations

        Just to be clear: We do NOT think of our lottery drawing as two separate "1 in 10" odds, because we would have to conduct two separate drawings for that to be true. We are still only conducting one drawing, but now two combinations are covered out of the possible 10 combinations.

        Another way to look at it is visually. You can see how our two purchased numbers represents 20% of the possible combinations, and the ones we have NOT purchased is 80% of the combinations. Our math checks out perfectly.

        Purchased

        20%

        Not purchased

        80%

        12345678910

        Expressing as "1 in ____"

        One of the points I made previously was that all odds calculations can be expressed as "1 in _____", meaning you have "one chance in _______ (some number)" to win. We all know it's possible to express odds that way, because that is really the only way the lottery EVER speaks about odds, no matter how complicated the game is to play.

        A great example of this is the Canada Lotto Max game. For $5, you get a ticket with 3 separate lines (combinations) on it. You get to pick your own numbers for the first line, but the second two lines are always quick picks. Regardless of the way the numbers are selected, each $5 purchase gets you the equivalent of buying three tickets. So how does the lottery express the odds for that 3-ticket purchase for $5? As "1 in _____" odds. They don't say "you have three separate chances of "1 in ____", they combine the three combinations and accurately tell you what your "1 in ____" odds of winning are. You can see it for yourself in the Prizes section at http://www.olg.ca/lotteries/games/howtoplay.do?game=lottomax.

        Getting back to my little lottery drawing example here, we can see that when I bought a second ticket above, I expressed the odds as "2 in 10". So what is the "1 in _____" become?

        That's pretty easy to calculate. Since one of the four ways to express the odds is a fraction, we can just simplify the fraction — something taught in elementary mathematics.

        Simplifying our 2/10 fraction above, we divide the top and bottom of the fraction by the lowest common denominator, which is 2, and our new fraction becomes 1/5.

        Now our four methods of expressing the 2-ticket purchase become:

        • 1 in 5
        • 1/5
        • 0.2
        • 20%

        Notice something here! Although we have changed the first two expressions, the last two have stayed the same.

        How is that possible? Because reducing a fraction does not change its value, it only changes the expression of it. 1/5 is the same number as 2/10. They both equate to 20%.

        So hopefully the skeptics here will see that there is no "magic fraction reduction", or anything strange going on. We have not made the game somehow easier to win — all we have done is accurately reflect the mathematical way of stating of chances of winning.

        When expressed visually, you can see how saying "1 in 5" instead of "2 in 10" does not magically make the game easier to win.  It is still a 20% chance of winning.

        Purchased

        20%

        Not purchased

        80%

        12345678910

        Purchased

        20%

        Chances of not purchased

        80%

        12345

        More Tickets

        Now, let's buy 5 tickets for the drawing. The numbers become:

        • 1 in 2 (or, 5 in 10 — same thing)
        • 1/2 (or, 5/10 — same thing)
        • 0.5
        • 50%

        Visually, it's easy to see this is correct:

        Purchased

        50%

        Not purchased

        50%

        12345678910

        Scaling the Concept to Mega Millions

        There is nothing magical about calculating the odds of multiple ticket purchases for Mega Millions. The same exact mathematical calculations are used, no matter how many combinations there are.

        To review a 1-ticket purchase of Mega Millions, our four ways of expressing the odds are:

        • 1 in 175,711,536
        • 1/175,711,536
        • 0.00000000569114597006311
        • 0.000000569114597006311%

        Wow, that's a pretty small chance of winning. Look at that percentage!

        So let's use the example discussed in this thread of purchasing 13 tickets. Here's the new odds:

        • 1 in 13,516,272 (same thing as 13 in 175,711,536)
        • 1/13,516,272 (same thing as 13/175,711,536)
        • 0.0000000739848976108205
        • 0.00000739848976108205%

        If this is where I lose you, then let's step back to the discussion above where I mentioned the Canada Lotto Max game. In that game you get 3 chances (tickets) per purchase, and the lottery expresses the odds as a "1 in ____" number. So let's see what the Mega Millions odds would be with a 3-ticket purchase.

        Because Mega Millions has a larger number matrix than Lotto Max, we know that the odds must be steeper to win.

        In other words, the Ontario Lottery has published the Lotto Max odds of winning the jackpot as 1 in 28,633,528, so our 3-ticket Mega Millions purchase, if calculated correctly, will have WORSE odds than that.

        And here is the Mega Millions calculation for 3 tickets:

        • 1 in 58,570,512 (same as 3 in 175,711,536)
        • 1/58,570,512 (same as 3/175,711,536)
        • 0.0000000170734379101893
        • 0.00000170734379101893%

        Well, we can see that our 1 in 58,570,512 chances are definitely worse than Lotto Max's 1 in 28,633,528 chances of winning, when the playing field is leveled by purchasing 3 Mega Millions tickets.

        In fact, we would have to purchase 7 Mega Millions tickets in order to achieve approximately the same odds of winning Lotto Max (with the Lotto Max $5 purchase):

        • 1 in 25,101,648 (same as 7 in 175,711,536)
        • 1/25,101,648 (same as 7/175,711,536)
        • 0.0000000398380217904418
        • 0.00000398380217904418%

        Summary

        I really hope this sheds some light on the discussion of odds calculations for multiple ticket purchases.

        I do not intend this information to reinforce some notion that buying multiple tickets somehow make the game much easier to win. In fact, if you think buying 13 tickets and making the odds 1 in 13,516,272 is "much easier to win", then you are deluding yourself. The odds against you are still astronomical either way.

        However, one thing I am doing here is being FACTUAL. It IS possible to make your odds BETTER by buying more than one ticket. The mathematics I have described here accurately reflect exactly how much better your odds become. Frankly, to those who do not like the way it is being expressed, then it would be best for you to not think in terms of odds at all, because it will only become upsetting for you. Mathematics is a "black and white" subject. There are not two correct answers here, only the one answer I am giving you.

        On the other hand, if you have always been confused by odds for multiple tickets, and this helps clarify the topic, then it is my pleasure to have helped!

        Good luck in tonight's big drawing!

        The following took place in regards to the email below that username jacal5 received from the new york lottery in regards to lack of  sweet millions winners and what i realized about it. I  have to paste what took place in order to make a sound argument.

        Here is the NY Lottery response to my question regarding the lack of Sweet Million winners:

         

        Thank you for your e-mail.

        It is still true that for $1, the Lottery's new Sweet Million game
        offers the best odds of winning $1,000,000.  The odds of 1: 3,838,380 to
        win the jackpot of $1,000,000 cash is over 3 times better than the
        average $5 scratch off game, 6 times better than the odds to win the
        Lotto jackpot and over 45 times better than your odds to win the Mega
        Millions jackpot. However it's always about the sales.  Currently, we
        have sales of about $500,000 per draw for the Sweet Million game, which
        is only 1/8th of the odds to win the jackpot.  A large number of these
        plays are duplicative as many people play similar numbers such as 1, 2,
        3, 4, 5, 6, which mean we are only experiencing coverage of less than 8%
        of the total possible number combinations that can be drawn (3,838,380).
        Number coverage can have a direct impact on the frequency of winning the
        jackpot prize and this is why it has been a while since someone has won
        the game.  It is equally important to note that the money allocated to
        pay jackpots, as well as all prizes, is just waiting to be won.  The
        odds do not change, and if more than 1 person wins on a draw, they each
        get $1,000,000.  Playing Sweet Million always gives the player the best
        chance to win $1,000,000 as compared to any other game we have,
        regardless if 1 person plays or if 100,000,000 play.  Currently, low
        playership is resulting in a dearth of winners and we are experiencing a
        period of no jackpot winners but as odds and probability evens out over
        time, we will have periods of more winners than expected within a given
        level of sales.   

        Thank you for your interest in the New York Lottery.

         

        my post in regards to the email

        They should make the second prize a non fixed amount.  How about this, make sweet millions a 5/40 game with the same odds and the jackpot starting at $500k which increases with every drawing until somebody wins.

        BY THE WAY THEY JUST GAVE US THE SECRET TO WIN ANY LOTTERY IN the response to your question.  I knew it all this time.  THANK YOU VERY MUCH.

        This is the secret.  According to the ny lottery, there is not a lot of jackpots winners for sweet million because the pool of players playing the game is too small. Therefore a small number of the total combinations is being purchased. No wonder mega millions and powerball produce more winners regardless of the hard odds to win. In other words , all you have to do is play mega millions, powerball,take 5 with $1 quick pick to win big at the expense of those players that play for a lot of money. That is why I have seen people winning powerball,mega millions and take 5 with 1 line all the time. I have given you guys the secret to win big at lotteries for free.  You might say that mega millions and powerball have a larger pool of players because they are not played only in new york.  For example, ny lotto and sweet million have fewer winners than new york take 5 because a larger number of the total combinations to win take 5 are played on every draw.  Therefore playing ONE QUICK PICK TICKET GIVES YOU AS MUCH CHANCES AS ANYBODY ELSE.

        That is right jackpot games such as mega millions and powerball produce more winners than any other games because there is a larger pool of people playing these games.  For example, mega millions and powerball produce more winners than new york lotto and sweet million because the pool of players in ny lotto and sweet million is very small compare to mega million and powerball.  When the pool of players is large enough in any particular lottery game, a large numbers of the total combinations to win are in played.  Therefore more people are going to win in that game. 

        So there is no need to buy multiple tickets in order to win big.  That is why you see people winning the mega millions and powerball with $1 QUICK PICK ALL THE TIME.  Smart players collect money from those players that push the jackpot to a higher amount by playing the least amount of money as possible.For example on 8/28/2009 two smart players won the $336 million mega millions jackpot by playing $1 QUICK PICK EACH.  The player from BRONX NY won half of it by playing $1 QUICK PICK WITH THE 26 ANNUAL PAYMENT OPTION.  The player from CALIFORNIA won half of it by playing $1 QUICK PICK WITH THE CASH VALUE OPTION.  These players realized that there was a big jackpot, therefore resulting in a large pool of people participating.  So they each played a small amount to win big.By the way, there were also players from NEW YORK that won the second prize of $250,000 buy playing $1 QUICK PICK ON 8/28/2009 TOO.

        SO THERE IS NO NEED TO CREATE YOUR OWN LOTTERY POOL BECAUSE YOU CAN PARTICIPATE IN ANY LOTTERY GAME THAT HAS A LARGE POOL OF PEOPLE PLAYING AND WIN BIG WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF MONEY. THE ODDS OF WINNING DON'T MATTER AS LONG AS THERE IS A LARGER NUMBER OF PEOPLE PLAYING MOST OF THE COMBINATIONS TO WIN.Less combinations in played the harder it is to win the jackpot or any prizes in any lottery game.THAT IS WHY YOU DON'T SEE TOO MANY JACKPOT WINNERS IN NY SWEET MILLION because the pool of players is too small to purchase most of the total combinations to win.

        So my point is that you do not reduce the odds by buying multiple tickets. Most of the combinations have to be sold to produce more winners.The lottery said itself in the email response to jacal5, the odds do not change.

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          NY
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          Posted: January 6, 2011, 6:04 pm - IP Logged

          I do not buy this arguement that you do not increase the odds of winning when you buy more tickets. Every ticket(combinations of number) is a potential winning ticket and hence the more tickets you have it mathematically speaking your chances of winning improves, now in real life it may not seem as for e.g. you can buy 10 tickets per draw for your entire life and you may not win a jackpot but mathematical probability wise speaking what I said holds true. You will realize this when you buy 10 tickets and one of the ticket is jackpot ticket which you otherwise would not have bought had you only purchased 1 ticket. Usually, you don't know what you missed which you don't have.

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            Posted: January 6, 2011, 7:36 pm - IP Logged

            Look at all the repeat numbers this month???

            Question is will they continue to repeat?

             12/20/2010 121819232530
             12/16/2010 101819213740
             12/13/2010 050826313334
             12/09/2010 011628313639
             12/06/2010 192324313638
             12/02/2010 010409283334

            Hot numbers - 4 & 24

            Cold numbers - 5 & 20

            Well it looks like SM is still repeating....

             01/03/2011 041415182840
             December 2010
             Click date for payout information.
             All prizes must be claimed within 1 year of the drawing.
             Date (Payout Info)Winning Numbers Drawn
             12/30/2010 172330363740
             12/27/2010 030612152435
             12/23/2010 040708192440

            look at the 40 (also hit 12/16) so 4 in the last 6 -WOW!!!

            24 has hit 3 times since 12/6

            19 repeated on the 23rd to make it 3 times in a ROW for 19, following the 3 31's in a row!!!

            REPEAT CITY!!!!!

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              Long Island, NY
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              Posted: January 17, 2011, 2:13 pm - IP Logged

              So what?  We've given up on this?  I hav'nt!

              Just as determined to win this one as ever!

                GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
                NY State
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                Posted: January 17, 2011, 4:29 pm - IP Logged

                So what?  We've given up on this?  I hav'nt!

                Just as determined to win this one as ever!

                I havent given up on SM.  I still play it.  Matter of fact, I've been in both of this weeks drawings since last Saturday.

                So what if most New Yorker's think there should be more jackpots won than there actually are!  That doesnt change the fact that 3,838,380 to 1 odds are the best chance to win a million dollars just about anywhere.

                Does anyone readng this think the folks who have already won a million bucks playing SM really care what most other New Yorker's think about SM?  That's was rhetorical question that doesnt need a reponse............

                About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                  Posted: January 17, 2011, 10:06 pm - IP Logged

                  Typically lottery allocates 50% of the total sales towards prizes and remaining 50% towards education etc. Odds are calculated based on the above. In case of SM, weeks go buy and there is no winner than means lottery is making more than it is paying. Then whenever there is a million dollar winner, it is possible that lottery is paying more than the revenue it earns. Is it fair to say in long run this will even out? meaning lottery will pay 50% of the revenue it earns towards prizes.

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                    Posted: January 18, 2011, 4:47 am - IP Logged

                    Well it looks like SM is still repeating....

                     01/03/2011 041415182840
                     December 2010
                     Click date for payout information.
                     All prizes must be claimed within 1 year of the drawing.
                     Date (Payout Info)Winning Numbers Drawn
                     12/30/2010 172330363740
                     12/27/2010 030612152435
                     12/23/2010 040708192440

                    look at the 40 (also hit 12/16) so 4 in the last 6 -WOW!!!

                    24 has hit 3 times since 12/6

                    19 repeated on the 23rd to make it 3 times in a ROW for 19, following the 3 31's in a row!!!

                    REPEAT CITY!!!!!

                    the 24 has hit 1 MORE time so thats 4 in just over a month!!!

                    15 is now the repeater - 4 times since the 27th.

                    and we have had ONLY 2 single digits since the 12/30 play.

                    I have been sitting out lately on this game but still watching it.

                      GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
                      NY State
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                      Posted: January 18, 2011, 8:32 am - IP Logged

                      I'm one of the 9,261 players that  had 3 numbers in SM last nite.

                      The sad part is I also had two "one-off number's" on the same line I had the three numbers, so I didnt collect $500.

                      I'll keep playing anyway.

                      I shoulda kept the playslip.   In all of the games I played, I did partial QP's, so I dont know if I picked the winning numbers (and the one-off's) or if the terminal picked 'em.

                      About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

                        GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                        Posted: January 18, 2011, 8:47 am - IP Logged

                        Typically lottery allocates 50% of the total sales towards prizes and remaining 50% towards education etc. Odds are calculated based on the above. In case of SM, weeks go buy and there is no winner than means lottery is making more than it is paying. Then whenever there is a million dollar winner, it is possible that lottery is paying more than the revenue it earns. Is it fair to say in long run this will even out? meaning lottery will pay 50% of the revenue it earns towards prizes.

                        I agree, the way things stand right now with Sweet Millions, The NY State Lottery is comming out ahead.

                        That said, sales of SM have been so poor, I dont believe the lottery can be that far ahead of the game. 

                        It might even out over the long run, but I dont care if it does or not.  The only way it wont even out over time is if sales continue to be so poor that the lottery pulls the game off the market. 

                        SM is a good example of the lottery playing public's limited mindset.  People do understand that SM's odds are low (as compared to the odds other online lottery games carry to win a million bucks) but what they dont understand is the lack of jackpots being won is because not enough players are playing the game.

                        About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                          Posted: January 18, 2011, 9:36 pm - IP Logged

                          Lottery is typically run like how govts run. They don't care. if it was run like private companies with some competition then it would be win win situation. Lottery can do lot of things to ensure there is a winner every draw and more people will play it. They can also increase the participation by creating more winners instead of 1 multi millionaire.

                            GiveFive's avatar - Lottery-026.jpg
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                            Posted: January 19, 2011, 10:57 am - IP Logged

                            Lottery is typically run like how govts run. They don't care. if it was run like private companies with some competition then it would be win win situation. Lottery can do lot of things to ensure there is a winner every draw and more people will play it. They can also increase the participation by creating more winners instead of 1 multi millionaire.

                            While I do agree that The NY State Lottery could do more things to ensure there are more winners every drawing of Sweet Millions, NY cant do anything that would create more million dollar jackpot winners.  They'd quickly go broke if they did that. 

                            What they can do to entice more people to play SM is enhance the lower tier prizes. Currently in SM, matching 5 numbers will get you a lousy $500.  Come on!!!  That STINKS.  Matching 5 numbers is VERY HARD to do, yet all New York will pay for it is 500 bucks????  NY should pay a lot more for matching 5 numbers. 

                            Matching 4 numbers, which is also hard to do, will get a player 40 dollars.... That's pretty lame too.

                            The promotional hook that NY uses to sell SM is that it offer's players the best chance to win a million dollars.  And that's true.  There are no other states with an online jackpot game that will pay the winner a million dollar jackpot with odd's as low as SM's.  I've checked a lot of other states lottery websites looking to see if they have anything similar, and I didnt find anything. 

                            NY says less than 8% of the 3,838,380 possible 6 number combinations are sold for each drawing.  That means 92% of the possible 6 number combo's go unsold. That's why there is rarely a JP winner for each drawing.  If more people woke up and smelled the coffee, then there'd be more JP winners.

                            People mistakenly believe there is something wrong with the SM game itself.  The lack of jackpots being won has nothing to do with the SM game, and has everything to do with the lottery ticket buying public.

                            About playing the lottery --  You will lose more than you win. Until you hit a jackpot.  Then everything changes!

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                              Posted: January 19, 2011, 5:49 pm - IP Logged

                              NY cant do anything that would create more million dollar jackpot winners.  They'd quickly go broke if they did that.

                              How? NY needs 50% of sales for other social causes, that's given. With this in mind, they can design a game that would create more millionaire. This won't be applicable to SM but would be definately applicable to Lotto, powerball and mega million lotteries. NY doesn't have 100% control on last two lotteries.

                               

                              I agree with rest of your post. The other thing is NY has so many lotteries, they could minimize the number games which will make the % of tickets sold in remaining games left to a higher level. what should be the  ultimate goal of NY states? to sell more lotto tickets so accordingly they can earn more money for social causes. If more winners means more people will play it. Why should they care how many winners are there?

                                 
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