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CA Lottery - California Love - CA Lottery Scratchers

Topic closed. 2718 replies. Last post 1 year ago by CAScratcher20.

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Pasadena, CA
United States
Member #153326
March 13, 2014
186 Posts
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Posted: January 2, 2015, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

I would play CA Black if I could find a retailer selling it.

Bought two in south OC yesterday; one loser and a free ticket.

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    LA CA
    United States
    Member #118691
    November 6, 2011
    416 Posts
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    Posted: January 3, 2015, 9:50 pm - IP Logged

    i got a Emerald from a store in Reseda and won $15..so today I went to a small store in Littlerock on Pearblossom highway (138) and tried to cash it. The lady said that the block of scratchers was not activated and gave me a 800 number to call.. WTH ...shouldn't the store owner in Reseda have activated it before selling?

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      El Monte
      United States
      Member #160216
      October 22, 2014
      62 Posts
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      Posted: January 3, 2015, 11:32 pm - IP Logged

      This happens pretty often.  If you don't want to go back to the store in Reseda, just wait a few days.  At some point they'll activate it and/or someone else will goto the store and tell them to activate it. 

      It's pretty sloppy work to start selling scratchers that you haven't activated.  I can only imagine what their accounting/inventory system is if they sell a decent amount of tickets.

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        PA
        United States
        Member #129849
        June 29, 2012
        308 Posts
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        Posted: January 4, 2015, 1:56 am - IP Logged

        Scratcher odds aren't true odds.  Thee odds of rolling a 6 with a singe die is 1 out of 6. Those are true odds.  But if the die you have sometimes has a 6 and sometimes doesn't have a 6 the odds of rolling a 6 are much greater.  With scratchers, sometimes the winner is in the pack but most times the winner isn't in the pack.

        How are scratcher odds not true odds?

         

        I understand that that $500 winner isn't in each pack, but that's only because the packs are exponentially smaller then the required

        "average" sample size for the winner to be in. Unless I'm really misunderstanding here, they print the odds based upon how many of

        each winning ticket gets printed for each total print run of a particular scratch card game. I don't see any other way they can do it?

         

         

        If they print ten million tickets of a particular $20 game, and in that run of ten million tickets they print ten winners worth $100,000 each

        then your odds of scratching off a $100,000 winner are one in a million. Each pack is usually anywhere from 30 - 300 tickets depending on

        the cost of the game. 

         

        I still just don't get the argument of "true odds"? Maybe I'm missing something.

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          PA
          United States
          Member #129849
          June 29, 2012
          308 Posts
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          Posted: January 4, 2015, 2:13 am - IP Logged

          Thank you for taking the time to reply. I agree with you if we are looking at a $500 prize. But how about the odds for the top prize? I know the top prize for a $1 scratcher is much lower than the $20 scratcher, but the odds are much better.

          Looking at the CA Scratchers:

           1 in 300,000 to win $650,000 is much better than 1 in 2,400,000 to win $5,000,000, don't you think so?

          Winning small prizes in between with better odds will definitely help in extending our dollars to play longer, but we are anyway going to loose it all eventually unless we win one of the top prizes.

          Ticket PriceGame # Game NameTop PrizeTotal # of WinnersTickets Expected to be soldOdds 1 in1 in Odds for $20 Spent
          $1.001120CA Lucky Life$650,000.001272,000,0006,000,000300,000
          $2.001121CA Lucky Life$1,300,000.00636,000,0006,000,000600,000
          $5.00114020X the Money$200,000.001922,404,3301,209,411302,353
          $5.001122CA Lucky Life$3,250,000.00624,000,0004,000,0001,000,000
          $10.001119Bonus Crossword$750,000.001720,400,0001,200,000600,000
          $10.001112CA Black Exclusive$1,000,000.002428,800,0001,200,000600,000
          $10.001148Crossword Ca$h$750,000.001720,094,7201,231,294615,647
          $10.001136CA Millionaire's Club$1,000,000.00918,198,3502,022,0391,011,020
          $10.001129Wheel of Fortune$1,000,000.00819,200,0002,400,0001,200,000
          $10.001144Emerald 10's$1,000,000.00717,122,1792,398,0641,199,032
          $10.001123CA Lucky Life$6,500,000.00518,000,0003,600,0001,800,000
          $20.001100$5 Million Jackpot$5,000,000.001433,600,0002,400,0002,400,000
          $20.001133Million $$ Match$5,000,000.00424,000,0006,000,0006,000,000

          I'm not sure your looking at it quite rite.

           

          For simplicities sake, were only going to look at the 7th column over, not the very last column.

           

          The $1 lucky for life ticket has a 1 in 6,000,000 chance to win $650,000.00.... basically if you invest 6 million dollars

          you should find one top prize winning ticket. This is a net loss of $5,350,000 for the expected odds to hit a top prize ticket.

           

          If we look at the $20 ticket, the top prize of 5 million dollars has expected odds of 1 in 2,400,000. If you play the expected

          amount of tickets, you will likely net a loss of $43,000,00.00

           

          Now, we need to look at the scale of each investment. Ramp up the 6 million dollar investment to 48 million you need to 

          increase it by a factor of 8. So then now lets increase our losses by a factor of 8 as well. Increases the losses to 42.8 million.

          BTW, I scale this investment so that the numbers are easier to see for what they really are. By choosing a certain scale,

          one can try to make the numbers show in a certain way so that unless the person looking at the results knows better, they

          can be led to make false assumptions. At any rate, I scale both the investments and the winnings by the same amount so

          it's still perfectly balanced.

           

          So of course we arrive at very nearly the same investment, and the same net losses. It's still not undeniable to say that the $1

          ticket is the better investment when crunching the numbers. It almost becomes a wash, but we need to

          look at the other odds involved, and those are of the other prizes that can be won and their odds. That's when the much more

          realistic prizes become more important, usually the somewhat smaller prizes. 

           

          Again this is just my train of thought, if I'm missing something anyone can please feel free to correct me :)

            mrcraft's avatar - images3lp4 zps7dbb4a10.jpg
            Los Angeles, California
            United States
            Member #149492
            December 2, 2013
            919 Posts
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            Posted: January 4, 2015, 1:22 pm - IP Logged

            How are scratcher odds not true odds?

             

            I understand that that $500 winner isn't in each pack, but that's only because the packs are exponentially smaller then the required

            "average" sample size for the winner to be in. Unless I'm really misunderstanding here, they print the odds based upon how many of

            each winning ticket gets printed for each total print run of a particular scratch card game. I don't see any other way they can do it?

             

             

            If they print ten million tickets of a particular $20 game, and in that run of ten million tickets they print ten winners worth $100,000 each

            then your odds of scratching off a $100,000 winner are one in a million. Each pack is usually anywhere from 30 - 300 tickets depending on

            the cost of the game. 

             

            I still just don't get the argument of "true odds"? Maybe I'm missing something.

            I think Scratchers aren't true odds because very rarely do they sell every ticket within a game.  Lots, millions of them, in cases of slow moving games, are sitting in warehouses and may never be released to retailers.  If all tickets were on retailers shelves concurrently across the state then we can say the odds are true odds.

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              New Member
              Bay Area, CA
              United States
              Member #162136
              December 23, 2014
              5 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: January 4, 2015, 4:08 pm - IP Logged

              I'm not sure your looking at it quite rite.

               

              For simplicities sake, were only going to look at the 7th column over, not the very last column.

               

              The $1 lucky for life ticket has a 1 in 6,000,000 chance to win $650,000.00.... basically if you invest 6 million dollars

              you should find one top prize winning ticket. This is a net loss of $5,350,000 for the expected odds to hit a top prize ticket.

               

              If we look at the $20 ticket, the top prize of 5 million dollars has expected odds of 1 in 2,400,000. If you play the expected

              amount of tickets, you will likely net a loss of $43,000,00.00

               

              Now, we need to look at the scale of each investment. Ramp up the 6 million dollar investment to 48 million you need to 

              increase it by a factor of 8. So then now lets increase our losses by a factor of 8 as well. Increases the losses to 42.8 million.

              BTW, I scale this investment so that the numbers are easier to see for what they really are. By choosing a certain scale,

              one can try to make the numbers show in a certain way so that unless the person looking at the results knows better, they

              can be led to make false assumptions. At any rate, I scale both the investments and the winnings by the same amount so

              it's still perfectly balanced.

               

              So of course we arrive at very nearly the same investment, and the same net losses. It's still not undeniable to say that the $1

              ticket is the better investment when crunching the numbers. It almost becomes a wash, but we need to

              look at the other odds involved, and those are of the other prizes that can be won and their odds. That's when the much more

              realistic prizes become more important, usually the somewhat smaller prizes. 

               

              Again this is just my train of thought, if I'm missing something anyone can please feel free to correct me :)

              My reasoning is based on the fact that I personally do not care much about the smaller prizes (though I will be very happy if I do win a smaller prize). So, the way I look at it is what is the probability of picking one of the12 top prize tickets from a pool of 72 million tickets? If I have 20 chances to pick one of 12 from the pool of 72 million tickets, my odds are 1 in 300,000.

              Also, as mrcraft and others have pointed out, these odds are not accurate because some tickets may never be part of the pool ( because they are left unsold in a warehouse) and the pool ( those tickets that are sold) is distributed across so many retailers across the state and my retailer may never even have one of the top prize tickets, so my odds do not really get better by buying more tickets. But there is nothing I can do about it. ( It does improve my odds for 2nd chance drawing).

               To summarize, you are looking to win something more realistic (smaller prizes) and in the process if you win big, you will be very happy. so you buy larger priced scratchers.

               I am looking to win something much less likely ( top prize) but in the process if I win a few smaller prizes, I will be happy. So I buy tickets with better odds to win top prize ( lower priced tickets) to stay within my budget and to improve my odds ( however unrealistic they are) to win the top prize.

               

               Thanks for sharing your line of thought.

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                Santa Barbara
                United States
                Member #154772
                April 28, 2014
                95 Posts
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                Posted: January 5, 2015, 10:03 am - IP Logged

                I think Scratchers aren't true odds because very rarely do they sell every ticket within a game.  Lots, millions of them, in cases of slow moving games, are sitting in warehouses and may never be released to retailers.  If all tickets were on retailers shelves concurrently across the state then we can say the odds are true odds.

                Thanks mrcraft. If the winning ticket is sitting in the warehouse the odds of winning are Zero.  Again it's like rolling a die without a 6. But you need a 6 to win.

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                  LA CA
                  United States
                  Member #118691
                  November 6, 2011
                  416 Posts
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                  Posted: January 8, 2015, 5:03 pm - IP Logged

                  won $100 on a Emerald last evening... $50 spot and 2 $25 ...

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                    Santa Barbara
                    United States
                    Member #154772
                    April 28, 2014
                    95 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: January 9, 2015, 11:53 am - IP Logged

                    Bought four $5 Money Bag Multipliers this morning. Turned $20 into $62.  One $50 winner and two $6 winners.  Six dollar winners on $5 tickets are still pretty lame prizes though. Minimum prize win should be at least double the value of the ticket.

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                      south el monte
                      United States
                      Member #154982
                      May 4, 2014
                      64 Posts
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                      Posted: January 14, 2015, 1:52 am - IP Logged

                      just saw the new scratchers coming ... After taxes... 10$ -a 1,000,000..

                       

                      5$-250,000 ... Like those grand prizes....all taxes paid....

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                        Santa Barbara
                        United States
                        Member #154772
                        April 28, 2014
                        95 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: January 14, 2015, 3:34 pm - IP Logged

                        just saw the new scratchers coming ... After taxes... 10$ -a 1,000,000..

                         

                        5$-250,000 ... Like those grand prizes....all taxes paid....

                        Where are you seeing this?

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                          LA CA
                          United States
                          Member #118691
                          November 6, 2011
                          416 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: January 14, 2015, 5:12 pm - IP Logged

                          Picked a CA Black (039) from a liqor store in San Fernando valley...does the roll have 50 tickets total? I am tempted to buy all.. not sure if he is selling them in reverse order though..

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                            New Member
                            Bakersfield, CA
                            United States
                            Member #162352
                            December 31, 2014
                            4 Posts
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                            Posted: January 14, 2015, 5:36 pm - IP Logged

                            Is it me or does anyone else agree the first 20 tickets of any roll have the best winners!

                             

                            Banana

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                              New Member
                              Bakersfield, CA
                              United States
                              Member #162352
                              December 31, 2014
                              4 Posts
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                              Posted: January 14, 2015, 5:38 pm - IP Logged

                              Where are you seeing this?

                              Go to the retailers section of the CA Lottery's website, then go on news and information.

                              Dance

                                 
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