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New Systems Forum just based on real stats and facts!

Topic closed. 378 replies. Last post 2 years ago by WIN D.

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How about a new Systems forum based on just "facts"

Yes [ 107 ]  [81.06%]
No [ 16 ]  [12.12%]
VooDoo,dreams, reading entrials [ 4 ]  [3.03%]
Feelings [ 5 ]  [3.79%]
Total Valid Votes [ 132 ]  
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lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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Posted: August 6, 2014, 9:09 pm - IP Logged

 It'll still be voodoo......but no one will be left here to notice it's misspelled.

 ....or able to question any of the dozens of mind dumps you squeeze out each day.       

BS

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    Posted: August 6, 2014, 9:11 pm - IP Logged

    So a straight set for P3 and P4 will take 2.7 and 27 years for a hit, folks there is no recourse with this fact, we're doomed!

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      Kentucky
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      Posted: August 6, 2014, 10:11 pm - IP Logged

      Never meant to ignore you, Adobea78, I overlooked this question from a few weeks back - but yes, Stack47 answered here for me, and better than I probably would have. Smile

      Let me add this, and again, forgive me if I've wandered off topic, not trying to….

      California utilizes an algorithmic system for determining its numbers.  It says it uses both an algorithm and a random method... I actually believe it uses an algorithmic method to filter down a pool of numbers, from which it then uses the random method to pick final one... but I don't know, and could be wrong.

      Leaving that aside.

      Take a purely random system.  Rolling of three 10-sided dice, coming up with numbers between 000-999, just like the P3 games.

      Whatever method you use for best determining the next result - cold plays, repeating sets, etc. - whatever those are, are based on observable anomalies.

      Some are palpably visible: a long out digit, say.  Or a long out pairing.  Or a long out root sum.  Or a long out repeat pair.

      Anything that's "due," is to one degree or another, "long out."

      Anything that's likely to occur next, is - on some level or other - long out. Whatever is "due," by definition, must be a hair or an inch or a foot or a mile "long out."

      Trends?  Nope... those are no more than "long out" occurrences, too.  There's no such trend, like, say, the 3 digit repeating since the game began. A 3 trend would be the ongoing manifestation of a "long out" trend for 3s repeating.

      All we can see, in the game, is what's "long out."  Anything else... is, purely random. No system is based on pure luck randomness: that's oxymoron-ic.

      The algorithm at play, then, must have been designed to take those very "long outs" we ourselves see... the only thing anyone can see to create any kind of system... and stretch them out even farther... knowing the "savvy" gambler will chase them to the detriment of his wallet, and the benefit of the house.

      The house benefits by creating vast webs of "long outs," from which the observer must pick out what s/he thinks the best one to play.

      Bringing us right back to: blindly reaching into a hat for the right number.

      i.e., it's all: blind luck.

      ...  Murder on the Orient Express, anyone?... because the above, mon ami, is one solution....

      Wink

      "Take a purely random system.  Rolling of three 10-sided dice, coming up with numbers between 000-999, just like the P3 games."

      Live ball drawings show three machines each with 10 numbered balls that create the winning pick-3 number and why lots of us look at the result as three unique drawings. From the TN Lottery fiasco we learned at least that lottery's RNG was programmed with three unique drawings too.

      Some of the systems we see in this forum are nothing more than methods to produce several three digit combinations and get bragging rights when one has a box win. After watching years worth of drawings, they get the idea that adding "1" to the first digit (or any of the digits) can't possibly always produce the next drawn digit so they subtract "1" or any number of different things and call it a system.

      "Trends?  Nope... those are no more than "long out" occurrences, too.  There's no such trend, like, say, the 3 digit repeating since the game began. A 3 trend would be the ongoing manifestation of a "long out" trend for 3s repeating."

      Four years ago when we discussed the probability of a three digit number repeating, some decided it was the same as any other combo being drawn. But what was ignored was the same "cause and effect" of adding "1" to a digit; 2 must always follow 1, 6 must follow 5, etc. What are called trends are just the average ordinary probability standard deviation we should expect to see.

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        Kentucky
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        Posted: August 6, 2014, 11:09 pm - IP Logged

        I don' t thrive on odds like you and your friends I play the trends etc.  Chasing " odds" and due numbers can be very expensive.  I' ve been doing this for a longtime so so save the lecture.

        For someone claiming playing a long time, you apparently don't know the pick-3 and pick-4 odds are fixed and can't change. Any trend you could possibly think of is nothing more than standard deviation or cause and effect. Does "217 is the drawn number.  Add 153 with  lotto  math." mean "300 036 330" will always follow 217?

        Not to sound overly critical, but because there are 657 three digit numbers containing a "2, 1, or 7" there is 65.7% chance one or more of those digits will repeat and that "153. triangular number" includes none. Seriously by neglecting one probability, you're the one "chasing odds and due numbers".

          lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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          Posted: August 6, 2014, 11:25 pm - IP Logged

          I use avedev(a1:c1) for a single draw and also keep track of the width and roots.

           

          I also use vertically over the last 5 draws.  This gives me an indicator what numbers could fall.  I am currently backtesting a devition system that uses 5 draws.  Nm has blocks of draws with similar or vtrac numbers that can be analyzed.

          Its debateable whether the odds are fixed or if the game is predictable or purely random like abodea states.  That's the beauty of gambling in the lotto.

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            Kentucky
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            Posted: August 6, 2014, 11:29 pm - IP Logged

            I was refering to wind's counting of a members post.

            But doesn't it make sense if you're making the point prediction threads are over taking the Systems Forum to show the actual statistics?

            I just did a count and found out five of your six systems are on page 2 behind 8 threads that are nothing more than state predictions. While I understand that your systems are for helping someone, they can be much help lost on page 2.

              lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
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              Posted: August 6, 2014, 11:34 pm - IP Logged

              But doesn't it make sense if you're making the point prediction threads are over taking the Systems Forum to show the actual statistics?

              I just did a count and found out five of your six systems are on page 2 behind 8 threads that are nothing more than state predictions. While I understand that your systems are for helping someone, they can be much help lost on page 2.

              SOme of the systems are pen and pencil and others can be modified or put in excel in a few minutes.  I've gone back to page 200 on the sytems and read many great older posts and systems.  The info is here to use.

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                Posted: August 6, 2014, 11:36 pm - IP Logged

                "Take a purely random system.  Rolling of three 10-sided dice, coming up with numbers between 000-999, just like the P3 games."

                Live ball drawings show three machines each with 10 numbered balls that create the winning pick-3 number and why lots of us look at the result as three unique drawings. From the TN Lottery fiasco we learned at least that lottery's RNG was programmed with three unique drawings too.

                Some of the systems we see in this forum are nothing more than methods to produce several three digit combinations and get bragging rights when one has a box win. After watching years worth of drawings, they get the idea that adding "1" to the first digit (or any of the digits) can't possibly always produce the next drawn digit so they subtract "1" or any number of different things and call it a system.

                "Trends?  Nope... those are no more than "long out" occurrences, too.  There's no such trend, like, say, the 3 digit repeating since the game began. A 3 trend would be the ongoing manifestation of a "long out" trend for 3s repeating."

                Four years ago when we discussed the probability of a three digit number repeating, some decided it was the same as any other combo being drawn. But what was ignored was the same "cause and effect" of adding "1" to a digit; 2 must always follow 1, 6 must follow 5, etc. What are called trends are just the average ordinary probability standard deviation we should expect to see.

                Let's assume folks playing digit games are knowledgeable about normal distribution with all its parameters, can the outcome of random event  be predicted? I am trying to understand the intent of this thread, I get the sense of one side advocating for system based on 'Facts', but yet to  give example of such system other than stating parametric percentiles( odds for singles, number repeating, years for str hit for p3,p4  ....etc). Is prediction for random events exact science? if yes, then this thread should be in the math forum, where facts are paramount . I will like to see  a system build on the fact that ; ' there is a digit returns 70%  on successive draw or  40 %  draws are doubles.....etc, the percentages are facts, right?, then lets build a system based on such facts.

                 

                'After watching years worth of drawings, they get the idea that adding "1" to the first digit (or any of the digits) can't possibly always produce the next drawn digit so they subtract "1" or any number of different things and call it a system'.

                What I deduced from the above is, ' whatever system out there is bound to fail' (factual system may fare well , I guess) from historical  approach (Years worth of drawings........). If we're really into facts, then concepts like linear regression, chaos theory, extrapolation of data,data-scaling....  etc are mathematical tools that should be discussed for a factual system. I will be intimidated if someone tells me  a selected pick 4 set will take 27 years to hit, sure is a fact based on total distribution, but don't disregard the nuances(prediction is not exact science).

                Systems> 70%  digit return,  50% of draws are distinct, 48% of doubles, digit sum range 13-18  etc are examples of systems that could be coded.

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                  Kentucky
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                  Posted: August 7, 2014, 12:00 am - IP Logged

                  I use avedev(a1:c1) for a single draw and also keep track of the width and roots.

                   

                  I also use vertically over the last 5 draws.  This gives me an indicator what numbers could fall.  I am currently backtesting a devition system that uses 5 draws.  Nm has blocks of draws with similar or vtrac numbers that can be analyzed.

                  Its debateable whether the odds are fixed or if the game is predictable or purely random like abodea states.  That's the beauty of gambling in the lotto.

                  "Its debateable whether the odds are fixed or if the game is predictable or purely random like abodea states."

                  The odds are fixed in that only one of the ten digits 0 to 9 can be drawn. And the game is predictable in that about 30% to 40% of the three digit numbers won't be drawn in the next 1000 drawings. Some will say by playing ten unique lines, the player is getting a 1 in 100 chance, but if they don't use all ten digits in the first digit position, there are possibilities of having no chance.

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                    Posted: August 7, 2014, 12:19 am - IP Logged

                    "Its debateable whether the odds are fixed or if the game is predictable or purely random like abodea states."

                    The odds are fixed in that only one of the ten digits 0 to 9 can be drawn. And the game is predictable in that about 30% to 40% of the three digit numbers won't be drawn in the next 1000 drawings. Some will say by playing ten unique lines, the player is getting a 1 in 100 chance, but if they don't use all ten digits in the first digit position, there are possibilities of having no chance.

                    about 30% to 40% of the three digit numbers won't be drawn in the next 1000 drawings

                     

                    How can one build a system based on above statement ?

                      CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                      ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                      Posted: August 7, 2014, 7:43 am - IP Logged

                      about 30% to 40% of the three digit numbers won't be drawn in the next 1000 drawings

                       

                      How can one build a system based on above statement ?

                      By having the right tools. The combos below are the unhit shortsum 1, after 1000 draws.

                      today I will play the 029 combo.

                       

                      001, 029, 047, 056, 083, 092, 155, 245, 254, 263, 335, 344, 353, 371, 380, 407, 425, 452, 470, 506, 524, 542, 579, 597, 623, 704, 731, 759, 768, 830, 867, 876, 939, 975, 993

                      Sgls

                      029, 047, 056, 083, 092, 245, 254, 263, 371, 380, 407, 425, 452, 470, 506, 524, 542, 579, 597, 623, 704, 731, 759, 768, 830, 867, 876, 975

                      Dbls

                      001, 155, 335, 344, 353, 939, 993

                      all the unhit combos after 1000 draws.

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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                        Posted: August 7, 2014, 9:26 am - IP Logged

                        WIN D

                        IMHO, it would be a very short thread.  Playing the lottery is a game regardless of how

                        serious some may take it.   Most of the ideas people share are based on IF statements             

                        even if the IF is omitted.  Playing the lottery means working with uncertainly and as such

                        there comes a point where we are forced to guess.  There will never be a A+B=winner type

                        of system regardless of what facts we use.   Most of the arguments that flare up from time

                        to time here are personally clashes.  Below is a link to take a personally test for anyone

                        interested our you can just google  "personally test."     

                        http://www.16personalities.com/free-personality-test   

                        RL

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                          Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                          Posted: August 7, 2014, 11:33 am - IP Logged

                          WIN D

                          IMHO, it would be a very short thread.  Playing the lottery is a game regardless of how

                          serious some may take it.   Most of the ideas people share are based on IF statements             

                          even if the IF is omitted.  Playing the lottery means working with uncertainly and as such

                          there comes a point where we are forced to guess.  There will never be a A+B=winner type

                          of system regardless of what facts we use.   Most of the arguments that flare up from time

                          to time here are personally clashes.  Below is a link to take a personally test for anyone

                          interested our you can just google  "personally test."     

                          http://www.16personalities.com/free-personality-test   

                          RL

                          IMvHO 

                          The80% of the voters really want a (fact based forum) of their own. A place to go where they can depend on a certain kind of focus being there.

                           Then .....there are the 12 that don't. Fine.

                           Then there is 1 or 2  that don't want it for themselves ......and don't want anyone else to have it as well. Why? 

                           One of them... in particular always shows up to repeatedly clash his opinion sideways....... trying to prevent it. Why? Just because he says he doesn't believe in all that ODDS and stuff.  What?   

                           One or two others take their polite turns about it. They state their views then vote ....and leave. Some never leave. 

                           It's pretty simple , 80% said they want something apart ......that leans more toward afact based forum....... and 1 or 2 want to fight it to the death for their own jealous protection....and still keep clashing into what many members want to enjoy.

                          They can keep the Systems forum as it is. Fine.  Post 30 or even 40 systems in a row if they want. Good for every state.  What ever.

                           

                           

                          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                 Win d    

                            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                            Stone Mountain*Georgia
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                            Posted: August 7, 2014, 12:38 pm - IP Logged

                            This is kinda' off subject here but someone has misquoted something. 

                             For many years I have attempted to improve my game play chances....both Pick 4 and 3.  I perfer the pick 3 . Why ?

                                                                             My short elevator speech about it is this ......when I'm talking to non players .....

                              Pick 3 has 1000 numbers to guess at...... Pick 4 has 10,000 ! 

                              At this point I always say ......it takes 2.7 years for a pick 3 game to make at least ONE CYCLE of a thousand draws ...so your favorite number is not even late for at least 2.7 years!

                              Then I say....if you played your favorite number in Pick 4...... it' not even late for 27 years !! Because that's 10,000 days to Cycle at least one time! You could in all probability..... be waiting for your "Pet NUMBER" to show up for27 YEARS .....or longer!! 

                             

                             Now..... IF you are a player and we have longer to discuss it on paper .......in a "safe" forum where we don't get pushed off the page after 3 minutes. LOL

                             These are some more serious facts about this. Not all numbers will be drawn in either a 1000...or even 10,000 draw opportunities. That's just one cycle for each number to have an equal shot at being drawn.

                                    More specifically:     

                             

                              1. There are approx....387 straight combos or straights  in the last 500 draws..... at any given moment point of time .....or span in a lottery's data history. 387/500     =     77.4%.


                                                                 2. There are about .......494 straights combo's...... in the last 692 draws. 494 /692 = 71.4%. 


                                                      3. There are about  ........629 straights.... in the last1000 draws. 629/ 1000 =        62.9%. 


                                                                4. There are about 772 str. combo's in the last 1500 draws. 772/1500 =  51.5%. 

                                           
                                                    6.  There are about 850 str. numbers in the last 2000 draws. 850/2000 =    42.5%.

                                    the Best Spot...... to improve your Hits...... are to  Play 85% of the outcomes.....to realize about a hit rate of 9 out of 10. 


                                                      6. There are about 950 str combos in the last  3000 draws.    950/3000 = 31.7%. 

                                          Hitting all the straight combos that are possible in  a SET NUMBER of Draws is impossible in our little lottery games. 

                                                                It actually could be possible but so remote not to be considered........Odds or Probability wise.  Thumbs Up

                             

                             

                            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                   Win d    

                              CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                              ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                              Posted: August 7, 2014, 2:54 pm - IP Logged

                              By having the right tools. The combos below are the unhit shortsum 1, after 1000 draws.

                              today I will play the 029 combo.

                               

                              001, 029, 047, 056, 083, 092, 155, 245, 254, 263, 335, 344, 353, 371, 380, 407, 425, 452, 470, 506, 524, 542, 579, 597, 623, 704, 731, 759, 768, 830, 867, 876, 939, 975, 993

                              Sgls

                              029, 047, 056, 083, 092, 245, 254, 263, 371, 380, 407, 425, 452, 470, 506, 524, 542, 579, 597, 623, 704, 731, 759, 768, 830, 867, 876, 975

                              Dbls

                              001, 155, 335, 344, 353, 939, 993

                              all the unhit combos after 1000 draws.

                              8/7

                              DRAW 650

                              THE LDS 1 HIT.

                                 
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