Welcome Guest
Log In | Register )
You last visited December 7, 2016, 7:22 am
All times shown are
Eastern Time (GMT-5:00)

New Systems Forum just based on real stats and facts!

Topic closed. 378 replies. Last post 2 years ago by WIN D.

Page 16 of 26
4.421
PrintE-mailLink

How about a new Systems forum based on just "facts"

Yes [ 107 ]  [81.06%]
No [ 16 ]  [12.12%]
VooDoo,dreams, reading entrials [ 4 ]  [3.03%]
Feelings [ 5 ]  [3.79%]
Total Valid Votes [ 132 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 8 ]  
Avatar
frontenac, kansas
United States
Member #67724
December 3, 2008
199 Posts
Offline
Posted: September 25, 2014, 10:33 am - IP Logged

I totally agree with you WinD

    WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
    Stone Mountain*Georgia
    United States
    Member #828
    November 2, 2002
    10491 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: September 25, 2014, 10:41 am - IP Logged

       Say atoz... perhaps we all agreed a little more than we knew. It's the Solutions that were fuzzy.

                    We're just not as profound and articulate ....as RL. 

     

     

    The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                  Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                  Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                           Win d    

      Todd's avatar - Cylon 2.gif
      Chief Bottle Washer
      New Jersey
      United States
      Member #1
      May 31, 2000
      23262 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: September 25, 2014, 12:34 pm - IP Logged

         RL....... It is perfectly done.  True words. 

          "I suspect

                         such a folder would get populated very quickly with one off systems and we would end up needing another

                         sub folder for the sub-folder........ "     

       

       

                                                 RL...... you suspected correctly. This is exactly what happened here. Exactly.

                            This particular forum as example ...over "populated" itself and busted awhile back, as you said...... with"one off systems"..... as you correctly pointed out. 

      and  we did...... "end up needing another sub- folder for the sub-folder......"

       

                     You were also right on point with your other prediction RL. 

           History has already repeated itself right now, already happened. On our forum here and just the way you described. The membership felt like something was needed....at most... they reverted back...."we do need a sub-folder for sub-folder...." 

         You put your finger right on it RL.......  unfortunately the party is over... and your insight is... "Ex post facto"

       

          What's the solution? That's above our pay grade. The best the membership could come up with here...was a good old....  "SUB-Folder"!  LOL 

          Just like the last times ....and the time before that...   LOL                 

      Actually, that has not happened, because I decided not to create another Systems forum based up someone's personal judgement as to what makes up stats and facts, and what doesn't. 

      All discussion about lottery systems can take place, free from judgement that "your system sucks" or "my system is the best".  Mature and sensible forum visitors will simply ignore systems and discussions they don't like, and will engage in discussion with those that they do like. 

      Some people will always complain that the forum is not up to their specification of what it should be, but that's the way it's been with EVERY forum on this site over the course of the 15 years I have been running Lottery Post.

      As always, I appreciate good honest feedback (which is what I take this poll to be).  Just because I decide not to do this, it doesn't mean it's not legitimate feedback, it just means that I decided not to do this.  Don't let it discourage you from making any suggestion you'd like in the future.

       

      Check the State Lottery Report Card
      What grade did your lottery earn?

       

      Sign the Petition for True Lottery Drawings
      Help eliminate computerized drawings!

        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
        Stone Mountain*Georgia
        United States
        Member #828
        November 2, 2002
        10491 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: September 25, 2014, 2:16 pm - IP Logged

                                                                                 

         

        Back many hundreds of years ago in history....someone ask the Wise men ......" What holds up the Earth"?

         After thinking about this question for a long time the wise men came up with their answer.... "The Earth..... is held up by a Giant Turtle! "                                                                         

         

         This worked just fine for a long time afterward and everyone was satisfied for many years. At least until many years afterward ...when along came another man who ask..." Hey, what holds that Big Turtle up? "  LOL

         This really stirred up the current wise man's club again...and the community something fierce. The wise men pondered for many more years until ...... the wise  came up with yet a better answer.

                          They said...." The turtle is held up by.... 4 Giant Elephants!"

         This worked like a charm down through history.... until that other guy came along. What's his name?   LOL   

         

           So, this is pretty much a done deal here.. In the end everyone could only offer up the best they had in them at this time. Hope for better suggestions later on.

           

         P.S. The Elephants came first...then the Turtle. Big difference..  LOL             

         

         

        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                               Win d    

          Avatar
          Kentucky
          United States
          Member #32652
          February 14, 2006
          7310 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: September 25, 2014, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

          Stack47

          If we had a sub-system forum for real systems then who would decide which qualify for inclusion.  I suspect

          such a folder would get populated very quickly with one off systems and we would end up needing another

          sub folder for the sub-folder........   I think Todd puts serious thought into request and while some things might

          seem like a nice addition it would not work out in the long run.   

           

          Just my 2-cents.

          RL

          Some of us have very complicated systems, many of those systems require software programs, and very difficult to explain on message boards. Even if there was one Forum just for those types of systems, it would probably have very little use. The same is true with simple systems requiring a much larger wager than the average lottery players wants to risk. Currently we're seeing pick-3 predictions that if played would cost well over $100 per drawing and in some, most of the posts are made by the thread starters.

          I Agree! everything you said!

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

            United States
            Member #59354
            March 13, 2008
            3971 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: September 25, 2014, 11:42 pm - IP Logged

            Stack

            I like the idea, it's just that I can't think of a realistic way to control what is posted.  Maybe some type of open source

            software forum would work where members could suggest stuff which would be evaluated and if it's a good idea it could

            be added to the program.  The legal stuff might be a problem though.

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
              United States
              Member #9
              March 24, 2001
              19826 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: September 26, 2014, 2:58 pm - IP Logged

              Some of us have very complicated systems, many of those systems require software programs, and very difficult to explain on message boards. Even if there was one Forum just for those types of systems, it would probably have very little use. The same is true with simple systems requiring a much larger wager than the average lottery players wants to risk. Currently we're seeing pick-3 predictions that if played would cost well over $100 per drawing and in some, most of the posts are made by the thread starters.

              I Agree! everything you said!

              Even if systems are very complicated their results on the prediction board are very simple, either they win or they don't. 

              If someone has a system that's predicting winners above the norms of others, members are going to seek him/her out.  Winners don't get lost in the crowds because they are at the top of the winners list.  If you're not at the top of the winners list why would anyone want to know more about your system?

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

                Avatar
                Kentucky
                United States
                Member #32652
                February 14, 2006
                7310 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: September 26, 2014, 9:57 pm - IP Logged

                Even if systems are very complicated their results on the prediction board are very simple, either they win or they don't. 

                If someone has a system that's predicting winners above the norms of others, members are going to seek him/her out.  Winners don't get lost in the crowds because they are at the top of the winners list.  If you're not at the top of the winners list why would anyone want to know more about your system?

                When I played $20 a drawing on RC5 I wanted to put the picks on the board, but I didn't get any credit for matching 2 numbers so I stopped posting. The wheel guaranteed at least two 2 number matches just by matching 2 numbers.

                "If someone has a system that's predicting winners above the norms of others"

                If you get no credit for matching 2 numbers, you'll probably need lots of 4 number matches to be "above the 11.1% norm".

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                  mid-Ohio
                  United States
                  Member #9
                  March 24, 2001
                  19826 Posts
                  Offline
                  Posted: September 27, 2014, 6:13 pm - IP Logged

                  When I played $20 a drawing on RC5 I wanted to put the picks on the board, but I didn't get any credit for matching 2 numbers so I stopped posting. The wheel guaranteed at least two 2 number matches just by matching 2 numbers.

                  "If someone has a system that's predicting winners above the norms of others"

                  If you get no credit for matching 2 numbers, you'll probably need lots of 4 number matches to be "above the 11.1% norm".

                  I've noticed that too but I still post RC5 predictions when I play.  With odds of 1:9 of matching 2 for a $1 prize one could expect to get a hit every time they posted 10 lines which could put them among the top predictors in some categories rather easy so maybe that's the reason those wins are igorned.  Easy hits don't count.

                  And too maybe RC5 is one of the few pick5 games that pay for a match2 and Todd wants to keep all pick 5 games on a comparative level.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    Avatar
                    Kentucky
                    United States
                    Member #32652
                    February 14, 2006
                    7310 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: September 27, 2014, 7:03 pm - IP Logged

                    I've noticed that too but I still post RC5 predictions when I play.  With odds of 1:9 of matching 2 for a $1 prize one could expect to get a hit every time they posted 10 lines which could put them among the top predictors in some categories rather easy so maybe that's the reason those wins are igorned.  Easy hits don't count.

                    And too maybe RC5 is one of the few pick5 games that pay for a match2 and Todd wants to keep all pick 5 games on a comparative level.

                    Many of the 5/39 games give a free ticket for matching 2 numbers so that payoff is actually deducted from the next drawing. Those $1 winners I had were deducted from the next drawing's cost of play.

                    The LP prediction board payoffs are consistent in every game and there should be no complaints. With the pick-3 games, most players will win more playing their predictions. A 50 cent straight and box winner pays $400 or $500 in KY compared to $290 or $330 in many states.

                      Avatar
                      Kentucky
                      United States
                      Member #32652
                      February 14, 2006
                      7310 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: September 27, 2014, 10:35 pm - IP Logged

                      I've noticed that too but I still post RC5 predictions when I play.  With odds of 1:9 of matching 2 for a $1 prize one could expect to get a hit every time they posted 10 lines which could put them among the top predictors in some categories rather easy so maybe that's the reason those wins are igorned.  Easy hits don't count.

                      And too maybe RC5 is one of the few pick5 games that pay for a match2 and Todd wants to keep all pick 5 games on a comparative level.

                      The odds of "1:9" are the overall odds meaning 11.1% of all the 575,757 possible combinations win something. It also means 511,848 combinations have zero winners. Ten lines should produce at least one 2 number match, but there is no guarantee 20 lines will have a 2 number match. You'll need to play a 25 line 2 if 5 wheel to get a 2 number match guarantee.

                      With only 1.1% of the combinations really winning anything (winning $1 is breaking even), it's not exactly the type of game to get prediction bragging rights without a 5 number match.

                        RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                        mid-Ohio
                        United States
                        Member #9
                        March 24, 2001
                        19826 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: September 27, 2014, 11:24 pm - IP Logged

                        The odds of "1:9" are the overall odds meaning 11.1% of all the 575,757 possible combinations win something. It also means 511,848 combinations have zero winners. Ten lines should produce at least one 2 number match, but there is no guarantee 20 lines will have a 2 number match. You'll need to play a 25 line 2 if 5 wheel to get a 2 number match guarantee.

                        With only 1.1% of the combinations really winning anything (winning $1 is breaking even), it's not exactly the type of game to get prediction bragging rights without a 5 number match.

                        While everything you say is true, if you're a system player winning a free ticket isn't worth the same as winning a dollar.  Winning the jackpot isn't likely no matter which game you play so short of that winning back as much as you paid to play is the next best goal for a system.

                         * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                           
                                     Evil Looking       

                          garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                          Dallas, Texas
                          United States
                          Member #4549
                          May 2, 2004
                          1691 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: September 28, 2014, 2:03 am - IP Logged

                          The one thing that bugs me about people who quote stats......

                          EVERY STAT THEY QUOTE COMES FROM SOMEONE ANAL ENOUGH TO SIT DOWN AND DETERMINE THE ODDS.

                          Statistically speaking, the "You're Gonna Lose Stat" is the most posted stat on this site.

                          But here's a clue:

                          YOU'RE NEVER GETTING RID OF STATS.

                          Every video game you ever played is based on stats.

                          Want a new road? Leave it to the stats to say you need it.

                          Look at a utility bill. Stats on the average number of kilowatts or water you use.

                          Ever heard of baseball? Look at those stats. Do you think a batter goes into a game thinking "I'm hitting .333 so all I need is one hit every third at bat." Do you think after he gets that hit he quits trying?

                          Football? You think those guys remind themselves every time they walk into a ball park, "We have a 50% chance of losing?" Think Peyton Manning quits trying to complete passes if he hits 8 out 10?

                          What's the average number of macaroni's in a box of MacNCheese? How many M&M's in a bag?  Know the average number if straws in a boom? Hairs on your head?

                          Ever been to a business that don't keeps stats on inventory, and projected losses?

                          Insurance is based on stats. Ever heard of crime stats?

                          Do you get on an airplane, saying, "God I wish I booked Qantas!"

                          People go to casinos to GAMBLE knowing the stats say are going to LOSE.

                          Would kill yourself if your doctor said you only had a 1% of living?

                          Imagine how useless a stat is when people IGNORE IT. (Bet someone has a stat on people who ignore stats.)

                          But does posting "You're Gonna Lose Stat" make it more true? Do you think one person reads it and says, "Okay, That's it.  I'm never playing lottery again?" Does it make you feel awesomer?

                          Because people on the whole are not fatalist. They drive (even when they are drinking!!!), they fly, they go outside in a thunderstorm, they don't go out expecting to get mugged, they don't pet a strange dog thinking "I'm gonna get bit," and they don't buy a lottery ticket thinking "I'm gonna lose."

                          Unless they are a fatalist.

                          G

                          My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                            CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                            ORLANDO, FLORIDA
                            United States
                            Member #4924
                            June 3, 2004
                            5896 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: September 28, 2014, 4:59 am - IP Logged

                            The one thing that bugs me about people who quote stats......

                            EVERY STAT THEY QUOTE COMES FROM SOMEONE ANAL ENOUGH TO SIT DOWN AND DETERMINE THE ODDS.

                            Statistically speaking, the "You're Gonna Lose Stat" is the most posted stat on this site.

                            But here's a clue:

                            YOU'RE NEVER GETTING RID OF STATS.

                            Every video game you ever played is based on stats.

                            Want a new road? Leave it to the stats to say you need it.

                            Look at a utility bill. Stats on the average number of kilowatts or water you use.

                            Ever heard of baseball? Look at those stats. Do you think a batter goes into a game thinking "I'm hitting .333 so all I need is one hit every third at bat." Do you think after he gets that hit he quits trying?

                            Football? You think those guys remind themselves every time they walk into a ball park, "We have a 50% chance of losing?" Think Peyton Manning quits trying to complete passes if he hits 8 out 10?

                            What's the average number of macaroni's in a box of MacNCheese? How many M&M's in a bag?  Know the average number if straws in a boom? Hairs on your head?

                            Ever been to a business that don't keeps stats on inventory, and projected losses?

                            Insurance is based on stats. Ever heard of crime stats?

                            Do you get on an airplane, saying, "God I wish I booked Qantas!"

                            People go to casinos to GAMBLE knowing the stats say are going to LOSE.

                            Would kill yourself if your doctor said you only had a 1% of living?

                            Imagine how useless a stat is when people IGNORE IT. (Bet someone has a stat on people who ignore stats.)

                            But does posting "You're Gonna Lose Stat" make it more true? Do you think one person reads it and says, "Okay, That's it.  I'm never playing lottery again?" Does it make you feel awesomer?

                            Because people on the whole are not fatalist. They drive (even when they are drinking!!!), they fly, they go outside in a thunderstorm, they don't go out expecting to get mugged, they don't pet a strange dog thinking "I'm gonna get bit," and they don't buy a lottery ticket thinking "I'm gonna lose."

                            Unless they are a fatalist.

                            G

                            Gary,

                            This should be placed on the top of every LP page.

                              Tialuvslotto's avatar - Jailin
                              Texas
                              United States
                              Member #150797
                              December 31, 2013
                              815 Posts
                              Online
                              Posted: September 28, 2014, 6:45 am - IP Logged

                              The one thing that bugs me about people who quote stats......

                              EVERY STAT THEY QUOTE COMES FROM SOMEONE ANAL ENOUGH TO SIT DOWN AND DETERMINE THE ODDS.

                              Statistically speaking, the "You're Gonna Lose Stat" is the most posted stat on this site.

                              But here's a clue:

                              YOU'RE NEVER GETTING RID OF STATS.

                              Every video game you ever played is based on stats.

                              Want a new road? Leave it to the stats to say you need it.

                              Look at a utility bill. Stats on the average number of kilowatts or water you use.

                              Ever heard of baseball? Look at those stats. Do you think a batter goes into a game thinking "I'm hitting .333 so all I need is one hit every third at bat." Do you think after he gets that hit he quits trying?

                              Football? You think those guys remind themselves every time they walk into a ball park, "We have a 50% chance of losing?" Think Peyton Manning quits trying to complete passes if he hits 8 out 10?

                              What's the average number of macaroni's in a box of MacNCheese? How many M&M's in a bag?  Know the average number if straws in a boom? Hairs on your head?

                              Ever been to a business that don't keeps stats on inventory, and projected losses?

                              Insurance is based on stats. Ever heard of crime stats?

                              Do you get on an airplane, saying, "God I wish I booked Qantas!"

                              People go to casinos to GAMBLE knowing the stats say are going to LOSE.

                              Would kill yourself if your doctor said you only had a 1% of living?

                              Imagine how useless a stat is when people IGNORE IT. (Bet someone has a stat on people who ignore stats.)

                              But does posting "You're Gonna Lose Stat" make it more true? Do you think one person reads it and says, "Okay, That's it.  I'm never playing lottery again?" Does it make you feel awesomer?

                              Because people on the whole are not fatalist. They drive (even when they are drinking!!!), they fly, they go outside in a thunderstorm, they don't go out expecting to get mugged, they don't pet a strange dog thinking "I'm gonna get bit," and they don't buy a lottery ticket thinking "I'm gonna lose."

                              Unless they are a fatalist.

                              G

                              I Agree!

                              Excellent post (again!) Gary.  A passionate and poetic defence of the statistical world we live in.

                              Too many people here post systems that haven't been tested or have only been tested on a few draws*.  And a lot of people seem to accept that without asking "How often can I expect to win with this system?". 

                               

                              *System posters -- please don't get your panties in a wad thinking that I am referring to YOU.  I am speaking generally of many system posts by many authors over many years.

                              "There is no such thing as luck; only adequate or inadequate preparation to cope with a statistical universe."

                              ~Robert A. Heinlein

                                 
                                Page 16 of 26