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New Systems Forum just based on real stats and facts!

Topic closed. 378 replies. Last post 2 years ago by WIN D.

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How about a new Systems forum based on just "facts"

Yes [ 107 ]  [81.06%]
No [ 16 ]  [12.12%]
VooDoo,dreams, reading entrials [ 4 ]  [3.03%]
Feelings [ 5 ]  [3.79%]
Total Valid Votes [ 132 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 8 ]  
Avatar
Kentucky
United States
Member #32652
February 14, 2006
7344 Posts
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Posted: October 4, 2014, 10:03 pm - IP Logged

Hope Jimmy will always hangs around. I think he gives the joint class.  Thumbs Up 

 I think I know where he is coming from. He's got too much on the ball not to eventually see some distinct value in these  "exercises."  We're not actually here trying to change or improve the " walking treadmill machine" itself.  The focus is something else. Something all together different. Some of the side effects include .... fun and entertainment. 

 Some where along the way he will morph into a ready, steady asset ....he sort of already is. LOL 

                                             “There is remedy for all things... except death" - Don Quixote De La Mancha” 

                                                                                                “I come in a world of iron...to make a world of gold”

              Yes, I know he was mad.  LOL 

I hope he hangs around too, but he really needs to tell us some new stuff (we already knew).

    RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
    mid-Ohio
    United States
    Member #9
    March 24, 2001
    19901 Posts
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    Posted: October 4, 2014, 11:31 pm - IP Logged

    I hope he hangs around too, but he really needs to tell us some new stuff (we already knew).

    It will be hard for him to discover new stuff to say since he has reduced everything he thinks is worth knowing to one or two lines.

     * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
       
                 Evil Looking       

      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
      Dallas, Texas
      United States
      Member #4549
      May 2, 2004
      1839 Posts
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      Posted: October 5, 2014, 2:44 am - IP Logged

      What would you do with the largest known prime number?

      At 17,425,000 digits its not something most people even remember.

      What would you do with the Pi to the known decimal place?

      Seems a petty endeavor to work it to 10 trillion decimal places when most calculators only have the capacity for 10 digits.

      Still people are looking for the next highest prime and the next decimal in Pi. And that seems no less the odd occupation than turning the lottery inside out with statistics and probability.

      Talking about unknowns, like the next decimal place in Pi, is not something that doesn't exist, its merely something we haven't found. And to someone it has meaning. 

      And statistics is not just something we do between the times we're licking the bus windows.

      At one time, The Texas Lottery, had a contract with A&M (may still) to do independent auditing ensuring integrity (and randomness). To my knowledge, no college or university math department reads tea leaves, uses magic, or calls Ms Cleo for a reading in their research.

      And ensuring the integrity and randomness is not the same as searching for ways to play profitably. (Its assuring the public we run a fair game.)

      Of course, blackjack is considered a fair game, and yet, using stats/probability with card counting we can tip the odds in our favor. 

      Seems anytime we're dealing with numbers, statistics and probability have a place. The argument,  "you're not going to find anything," is only valid if you don't look. And you're certainly not going to find anything when you are not looking. 

      Ask the MIT Blackjack Team about that.

      G

      PS Have you had your flu shot today?

      My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

        WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
        Stone Mountain*Georgia
        United States
        Member #828
        November 2, 2002
        10491 Posts
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        Posted: October 5, 2014, 10:05 am - IP Logged

        What would you do with the largest known prime number?

        At 17,425,000 digits its not something most people even remember.

        What would you do with the Pi to the known decimal place?

        Seems a petty endeavor to work it to 10 trillion decimal places when most calculators only have the capacity for 10 digits.

        Still people are looking for the next highest prime and the next decimal in Pi. And that seems no less the odd occupation than turning the lottery inside out with statistics and probability.

        Talking about unknowns, like the next decimal place in Pi, is not something that doesn't exist, its merely something we haven't found. And to someone it has meaning. 

        And statistics is not just something we do between the times we're licking the bus windows.

        At one time, The Texas Lottery, had a contract with A&M (may still) to do independent auditing ensuring integrity (and randomness). To my knowledge, no college or university math department reads tea leaves, uses magic, or calls Ms Cleo for a reading in their research.

        And ensuring the integrity and randomness is not the same as searching for ways to play profitably. (Its assuring the public we run a fair game.)

        Of course, blackjack is considered a fair game, and yet, using stats/probability with card counting we can tip the odds in our favor. 

        Seems anytime we're dealing with numbers, statistics and probability have a place. The argument,  "you're not going to find anything," is only valid if you don't look. And you're certainly not going to find anything when you are not looking. 

        Ask the MIT Blackjack Team about that.

        G

        PS Have you had your flu shot today?

        "What would you do with the largest known prime number?

        At 17,425,000 digits its not something most people even remember."

        ------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          $17,872,947,693,177  Not as much as the US National Debt !  Thud

         

                                                                               If you take off in your rocket ship at ...186,000 miles a Second...(the speed of light) ...Inone year you can only travel about 6 trillion miles. So, I figure our country is traveling at ......3 times the speed of light. 

                                                                                 

         

             Years ago....not that long......        I did a thing on the national debt.     I was complaining because ......it was about 5.9 trillion then. 

         

         

        The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                      Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                      Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                               Win d    

          cuteban25's avatar - Lottery-047.jpg
          Pinecrest Sephardim
          United States
          Member #119068
          November 14, 2011
          1378 Posts
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          Posted: October 5, 2014, 11:05 am - IP Logged

           Please indulge me...to do a little hijack backward.

           

           

           No digits 4,,or 5 has hit in 18 straight draws!

           NewMexico midday

                          ......that of course means ...the same group of 488 straights or 48% of the chart has not hit in .......18 draws!

           Heads/Tails right?  So, effectively you could say that would be18 coin flips of HEADS in a row. Even Gilligan  can see that's special.

           

                         I can't predict the next draw ...... but I can predict with100% accuracy ....the very NEXT filter I will start with today!   LOL 

          New Mexico---------------------------------465--------------------------------------------LOL. what more can be said!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!      Yes Nod

          You may learn much from a game you lose than from a game you win.You will have to lose hundreds of game before becoming a good player   ( Capablanca < The Human Chess Machine >)    VOCATUS ATQUE NON VOCATUS DEUS ADERIT ( Erasmus / Jung )

            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
            Stone Mountain*Georgia
            United States
            Member #828
            November 2, 2002
            10491 Posts
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            Posted: October 5, 2014, 11:48 am - IP Logged

            New Mexico---------------------------------465--------------------------------------------LOL. what more can be said!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!      Yes Nod

             Thanks cuteban.....but. I forgot the NM lottery doesn't draw on Sunday.....and the 3 day window has 2 more draws to go for MIDDAY. The midday was the draw with those gross Digit skips for the 2 long out digits. The window will carry us to Tuesday now. 

             I came within a mouse hair of posting that we should all play EVENING with the same set ups last night . After this many years playing.... that's just the way it works.  ...and it did. LOL   IF it was a reasonable bet on Saturday.....it didn't get any worse one draw later...only better. OH yes. 

              Lottery always has to have this "cute" thing that it just has to do. It's just the way it is.  Another thing. When this much probability pressure is building up .....something else unusual ALWAYS ....POPs OUT around the same time. Like ....Trips or something. Be ware ...or be square ! 

             

             

            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                   Win d    

              PeerGynt's avatar - nw archer.jpg
              Simi Valley, CA
              United States
              Member #156940
              July 4, 2014
              675 Posts
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              Posted: October 5, 2014, 11:58 am - IP Logged

              NY

              Pick 3Pick 4
              MiddayEveningMiddayEvening
              Sat, Oct 4, 20140-2-28-2-3-2
              Fri, Oct 3, 20149-2-43-5-56-7-1-22-1-1-8
              Thu, Oct 2, 20149-0-68-7-02-5-2-00-7-9-3
              Wed, Oct 1, 20146-4-56-2-01-6-6-52-2-5-4
              Tue, Sep 30, 20144-6-43-2-63-1-7-37-4-0-1
              Mon, Sep 29, 20149-8-53-2-74-1-5-72-8-0-8
              Sun, Sep 28, 20143-0-33-4-65-6-0-04-3-0-7
              Sat, Sep 27, 20142-9-50-4-34-7-2-02-5-3-1
              Fri, Sep 26, 20144-9-47-2-80-5-8-80-1-0-0
              Thu, Sep 25, 20141-0-67-5-03-1-5-13-7-3-5

              Lets say I have  four different samples of  a data(pool 0,1,2...... 9), I can't  be certain of trending sample based on just back-testing.

               Consider the workout of the draw set 750 , my samples A,B,C,D yields different sets totaling 256 picks.

               

              418

              501

              963

              885  > this sample A  will yield 4*4*4>64 picks for str bets> hits 985

               

              527

              306

              133

              992>Sample B > hits 303(+5), 327(+8),326(+10),906(+13)> 4 str8 hits within 13 draws> you may think this sample is the current trend but random may prove you wrong, your best bet to recover your cost, is to stretch the span of play by one prize tag/ # picks  > 500/ 64 picks >8 draws span(flexible if you wage .25 online), lets continue with sample C.

              573

              868

              994

              085>sample C> hits 985(+7)

               

              500

              288

              166

              822>sample D>xxxx

               Now which of these samples are trending?, logic tells you Sample B with four hits is on, you could be wrong , why? you're back-testing, rather than forward-testing(if your data is based on history). Let's  assume the data was generated based purely on the POOL (members 0 thru 9 with size 10) through simulation or extrapolation, there is no way to differentiate trending sample even by null hypothesis, sample B could be a fluke, my best option is to compress samples A to D using  a SET counter for reduced picks. Total picks for the four samples will be 64x 4(256 sets), the counter will separate identical sets for reduced picks

              I'm going over and over this, Adobea, but having a difficult time comprehending it. It could be it's relying on knowledge that I don't have with just this example (like, where those numbers came from? 408, 501, etc.? and other things presented). But it's certainly fascinating, and you seem to be on to something highly intuitive. It brings to my mind....

              If one were to look at each digit placement on the D3 as a separate counter - picture an old-fashioned car odometer - and picture it as running 0-9 - one could use some simple intuition:

              Divide the wheel into a 50/50 coin flip. 0-4, then 5-9. So what are the odds of the next turn of the dial being the other side of the coin? But take any given number: take a recent Evening play in the CA D3: 162 Take that first position: 1. Make it into a coin's side heads, putting 1 at the center: 9 0 1 2 3. What was the Midday play from that day? 089. So, position one had two heads in a row... might be best, if playing Straights, to flip to the other side of the coin: 4 5 6 7 8. (Indeed, 802 came up next day.) This is a very costly and iffily effective way to play... but there's stuff here to think about.

              We have no dreams at all, or interesting ones. We should learn to be awake the same way—not at all, or in an interesting manner.   -- Friedrich Nietzsche

                WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                Stone Mountain*Georgia
                United States
                Member #828
                November 2, 2002
                10491 Posts
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                Posted: October 5, 2014, 12:23 pm - IP Logged

                I'm going over and over this, Adobea, but having a difficult time comprehending it. It could be it's relying on knowledge that I don't have with just this example (like, where those numbers came from? 408, 501, etc.? and other things presented). But it's certainly fascinating, and you seem to be on to something highly intuitive. It brings to my mind....

                If one were to look at each digit placement on the D3 as a separate counter - picture an old-fashioned car odometer - and picture it as running 0-9 - one could use some simple intuition:

                Divide the wheel into a 50/50 coin flip. 0-4, then 5-9. So what are the odds of the next turn of the dial being the other side of the coin? But take any given number: take a recent Evening play in the CA D3: 162 Take that first position: 1. Make it into a coin's side heads, putting 1 at the center: 9 0 1 2 3. What was the Midday play from that day? 089. So, position one had two heads in a row... might be best, if playing Straights, to flip to the other side of the coin: 4 5 6 7 8. (Indeed, 802 came up next day.) This is a very costly and iffily effective way to play... but there's stuff here to think about.

                 They say if you can form a detailed question correctly in just the right way.......that sometimes that's enough to give you the answer. I have never quite understood enough to ask him a question. 

                 No disrespect intended .....but I have ask if Adobea's first language is English. I know some people have ask me that question before. LOL 

                 Intonation and subtleties ....along with old and current slang as well as humor are among the last things you learn to "grok". Sometimes, complexities serve more than one purpose. So no questions will interrupt their ........theories. Then, no questions can be formed. 

                 What ever the cause....the result is the same isn't it Peer?  It leaves even the most sincere interested readers.....perplexed.       

                 

                 

                The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                       Win d    

                  Avatar

                  United States
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                  Posted: October 5, 2014, 1:43 pm - IP Logged

                   They say if you can form a detailed question correctly in just the right way.......that sometimes that's enough to give you the answer. I have never quite understood enough to ask him a question. 

                   No disrespect intended .....but I have ask if Adobea's first language is English. I know some people have ask me that question before. LOL 

                   Intonation and subtleties ....along with old and current slang as well as humor are among the last things you learn to "grok". Sometimes, complexities serve more than one purpose. So no questions will interrupt their ........theories. Then, no questions can be formed. 

                   What ever the cause....the result is the same isn't it Peer?  It leaves even the most sincere interested readers.....perplexed.       

                  I had this college lecturer from India , this guy was so good with his material,  but he was heavily accented that I (most of the class) couldn't understand him in the beginning. You're right, English is not my first language, I hope this fact would not deny dialogue  with the global community like Lottery post. I was reading a comment from LP Member Drsan (from Brazil), I couldn't understand what he was saying, I had the gist of what he was saying and made a concerted effort by suggesting to him to rephrase his comments in Italian language if he can (I presume Portuguese  is Latin derivative), because I want a dialogue. There is a difference between  written language and Spoken language when learning a language> Some people can speak  but they can not read, communications goes beyond just language, I wish I know   the sign-language to understand their culture. Technology is closing the gap and is a good thing, I get mails from China,Malaysia, Hong Kong ... etc all sharing different perspective towards a common goal. 

                   

                  NB> I take  your comment with much delight, is called trying to understand, it may seem hard in the beginning like the India college Professor.

                    Avatar

                    United States
                    Member #116344
                    September 8, 2011
                    3941 Posts
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                    Posted: October 5, 2014, 1:54 pm - IP Logged

                    I'm going over and over this, Adobea, but having a difficult time comprehending it. It could be it's relying on knowledge that I don't have with just this example (like, where those numbers came from? 408, 501, etc.? and other things presented). But it's certainly fascinating, and you seem to be on to something highly intuitive. It brings to my mind....

                    If one were to look at each digit placement on the D3 as a separate counter - picture an old-fashioned car odometer - and picture it as running 0-9 - one could use some simple intuition:

                    Divide the wheel into a 50/50 coin flip. 0-4, then 5-9. So what are the odds of the next turn of the dial being the other side of the coin? But take any given number: take a recent Evening play in the CA D3: 162 Take that first position: 1. Make it into a coin's side heads, putting 1 at the center: 9 0 1 2 3. What was the Midday play from that day? 089. So, position one had two heads in a row... might be best, if playing Straights, to flip to the other side of the coin: 4 5 6 7 8. (Indeed, 802 came up next day.) This is a very costly and iffily effective way to play... but there's stuff here to think about.

                    Divide the wheel into a 50/50 coin flip. 0-4, then 5-9. So what are the odds of the next turn of the dial being the other side of the coin? But take any given number: take a recent Evening play in the CA D3: 162 Take that first position: 1. Make it into a coin's side heads, putting 1 at the center: 9 0 1 2 3. What was the Midday play from that day? 089. So, position one had two heads in a row... might be best, if playing Straights, to flip to the other side of the coin: 4 5 6 7 8. (Indeed, 802 came up next day.) This is a very costly and iffily effective way to play... but there's stuff here to think about.

                    Try to translate the above  text into a Concept and see what happens!

                     

                    NB>The workout was not about samples A....D  digits(418.....etc), is about how to sample, what parameters to select as point of reference and finally what is the

                    concept behind or pushing those parameters.

                      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                      Dallas, Texas
                      United States
                      Member #4549
                      May 2, 2004
                      1839 Posts
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                      Posted: October 5, 2014, 2:13 pm - IP Logged

                       They say if you can form a detailed question correctly in just the right way.......that sometimes that's enough to give you the answer. I have never quite understood enough to ask him a question. 

                       No disrespect intended .....but I have ask if Adobea's first language is English. I know some people have ask me that question before. LOL 

                       Intonation and subtleties ....along with old and current slang as well as humor are among the last things you learn to "grok". Sometimes, complexities serve more than one purpose. So no questions will interrupt their ........theories. Then, no questions can be formed. 

                       What ever the cause....the result is the same isn't it Peer?  It leaves even the most sincere interested readers.....perplexed.       

                      There have been days when I wonder if ANYBODY here speaks English.

                      I wonder if I speak English reading some of these posts!!!!

                      Peer I had the same question. Thought maybe the flu shot was affecting my brain and I'd take some Tylenol and it would all be understandable. 

                      That didn't work either.

                       

                      G

                      My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                        lakerben's avatar - Lottery-061.jpg
                        New Mexico
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                        January 29, 2010
                        11166 Posts
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                        Posted: October 5, 2014, 2:32 pm - IP Logged

                         Thanks cuteban.....but. I forgot the NM lottery doesn't draw on Sunday.....and the 3 day window has 2 more draws to go for MIDDAY. The midday was the draw with those gross Digit skips for the 2 long out digits. The window will carry us to Tuesday now. 

                         I came within a mouse hair of posting that we should all play EVENING with the same set ups last night . After this many years playing.... that's just the way it works.  ...and it did. LOL   IF it was a reasonable bet on Saturday.....it didn't get any worse one draw later...only better. OH yes. 

                          Lottery always has to have this "cute" thing that it just has to do. It's just the way it is.  Another thing. When this much probability pressure is building up .....something else unusual ALWAYS ....POPs OUT around the same time. Like ....Trips or something. Be ware ...or be square ! 

                        I'm going with 456 ,459,145 ,455,554,545,445. More than I usually bet.

                        US Flag

                          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                          Stone Mountain*Georgia
                          United States
                          Member #828
                          November 2, 2002
                          10491 Posts
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                          Posted: October 5, 2014, 5:45 pm - IP Logged

                          My college roommate use to catch a lot of jokes about his very thick German accent.

                          It always gave me a lot of satisfaction to tell those people ....."yes, he does have a terrible accent in English .....and 5 other languages". Then I would ask them..... "How many languages do you have an accent in"?   LOL 

                           Just by the way...Peter kicked soccer style. He ended up as kicker for our college and got a full scholarship.....after school he ended up playing for the NFL. 

                           He still sounds funny like Arnold .....and he's now owner of a company outside Atlanta. 

                           

                           

                          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                 Win d    


                            United States
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                            Posted: October 5, 2014, 6:18 pm - IP Logged

                            There have been days when I wonder if ANYBODY here speaks English.

                            I wonder if I speak English reading some of these posts!!!!

                            Peer I had the same question. Thought maybe the flu shot was affecting my brain and I'd take some Tylenol and it would all be understandable. 

                            That didn't work either.

                             

                            G

                            garyo1954, while less concerned about his annoyance with those still learning the English language,  said earlier,

                            "Of course, blackjack is considered a fair game, and yet, using stats/probability with card counting we can tip the odds in our favor."

                            If he believes that games in which the odds can not be tipped in his favor are "fair," what does he call the others?

                            And he suggests, "Ask the MIT Blackjack Team about that."

                            Those MIT Blackjack players were pretty smart cookies.  Maybe he should ask them how they play and what they think about their chances in Lotto...

                              Avatar
                              Kentucky
                              United States
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                              February 14, 2006
                              7344 Posts
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                              Posted: October 5, 2014, 7:40 pm - IP Logged

                              It will be hard for him to discover new stuff to say since he has reduced everything he thinks is worth knowing to one or two lines.

                              I was debating if the knowledge from reading about casino gambling by someone in the business is the same knowledge as someone who worked in casinos has and it's similar to Jimmy's arguments. It appears he believes any opinion on one form of gambling equals all forms of gambling because his "expert" said so. The problem is his "experts" are never here so we can never question them.

                                 
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