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New Systems Forum just based on real stats and facts!

Topic closed. 378 replies. Last post 2 years ago by WIN D.

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How about a new Systems forum based on just "facts"

Yes [ 107 ]  [81.06%]
No [ 16 ]  [12.12%]
VooDoo,dreams, reading entrials [ 4 ]  [3.03%]
Feelings [ 5 ]  [3.79%]
Total Valid Votes [ 132 ]  
Discarded Votes [ 8 ]  
Lucky Loser's avatar - bucks
Texas
United States
Member #86154
January 30, 2010
1649 Posts
Offline
Posted: October 3, 2014, 12:20 pm - IP Logged

Jimmy, do you distinguish between the terms SYSTEM, and METHOD?...

Sure, any foolproof SYSTEM, is probably not.  There's no foolproof SYSTEM for anything - anything that can go wrong will go wrong, as Murphy once coined.

But surely you can't be so foolish as to say there aren't perfectly working and profitable METHODS to playing various lottery games?... 

How could you possibly know, with certainty, that no working METHODS exist?

And can't one teach a METHOD to someone else?

Because don't METHODs have rules, too?

Are you just being semantic with all this? Smile

There's no foolproof SYSTEM for anything  - anything that can go wrong will go wrong

 Absolutely no doubt here. In terms of a good lottery system/method/approach, it may not be the system's fault in the case of loss, or, the operator's fault. It can also simply be that the draw simply didn't produce what was expected after carefully tracking it. I still maintain that pre-tests have definite say in the end.

But surely you can't be so foolish as to say there aren't perfectly working and profitable METHODS to playing various lottery games?... 

Pick 3 and Pick 4 are the best candidates for a profitable method.

 

How could you possibly know, with certainty, that no working METHODS exist?

Can't know. Anyone that does have an approach that works isn't going to be here posting it, either. Even a person that is very well versed in 'reading' numbers could identify with what particular method a player is using. I can. Let me clarify what I personally mean by a 'working system.' When a player is able to consistently play over a period of time and still come out ahead, profit-wise with losses figured in, then this is a working method. So many people think that one must win all the time for their system to be working. Not so...not so at all. This game is about averages and remaining ahead from a dollar perspective.

And can't one teach a METHOD to someone else?

Absolutely.

Because don't METHODs have rules, too?

They most certainly do...and my best rules are patience and timing.

 

L.L.

Small games, frequent wins, and regular payouts 'cause.....

There are seven days in the week...'Someday' isn't one of them.

#lotto-4-a-living

    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
    Dallas, Texas
    United States
    Member #4549
    May 2, 2004
    1736 Posts
    Offline
    Posted: October 3, 2014, 2:28 pm - IP Logged

    Hope Jimmy will always hangs around. I think he gives the joint class.  Thumbs Up 

     I think I know where he is coming from. He's got too much on the ball not to eventually see some distinct value in these  "exercises."  We're not actually here trying to change or improve the " walking treadmill machine" itself.  The focus is something else. Something all together different. Some of the side effects include .... fun and entertainment. 

     Some where along the way he will morph into a ready, steady asset ....he sort of already is. LOL 

                                                 “There is remedy for all things... except death" - Don Quixote De La Mancha” 

                                                                                                    “I come in a world of iron...to make a world of gold”

                  Yes, I know he was mad.  LOL 

    Agree with you. Jimmy brings a certain perspective to LP. Quite uncommon actually.

    I'd be as well received visiting a Womens Issues forum posting pics of my colonoscopy.

    And a Don Catlin link. Because everything you read on the internet is true. And Don Catlin is a Scientologist.

    G

    My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

      RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

      United States
      Member #59354
      March 13, 2008
      3985 Posts
      Offline
      Posted: October 4, 2014, 12:06 am - IP Logged

      I guess I am not smart enough to comprehend the definition of the word "system."  Merriam-Webster defines

      system as "a group of related parts that move or work together"   Concerning the lottery, the word "winning"

      and "system" should never be used together.   At best, every lottery method or system is nothing more than a 

      series of tools or suggestions that if guessed correctly will produce better than the odds suggest.

       

      Anyone who thinks that they can predict any level of random consistently suffers from delusions.   Weathermen

      have the best tools that can be designed for predicting weather but they often miss.  The weather prediction tools

      they use often produce more than one model and the real prediction comes when the weatherman chooses which

      model to use.  If the person chooses the wrong model then it's not the system that is wrong but the person who

      makes the choice/decision of which model to go with.   

       

      Any person who starts a topic with something like "I cracked the lottery" or the word "guaranteed winning" I just skip

      over.  There is not, nor will there ever be a method or system that can produce 100% and if you find one it will be due

      to a defect in the drawing machine or the operator is corrupt.   I think the only qualification a lottery software must meet

      is that it must produce accurate data the user can analyze to make an informed choice and then provided the choices are

      correct, produce a winning set.  The best systems require the user to make the fewest choices to reach his/her play limit.

       

      The end

      RL

      Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

      I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

      they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

      USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

        US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

        Avatar

        United States
        Member #116344
        September 8, 2011
        3928 Posts
        Offline
        Posted: October 4, 2014, 1:06 am - IP Logged

        I guess I am not smart enough to comprehend the definition of the word "system."  Merriam-Webster defines

        system as "a group of related parts that move or work together"   Concerning the lottery, the word "winning"

        and "system" should never be used together.   At best, every lottery method or system is nothing more than a 

        series of tools or suggestions that if guessed correctly will produce better than the odds suggest.

         

        Anyone who thinks that they can predict any level of random consistently suffers from delusions.   Weathermen

        have the best tools that can be designed for predicting weather but they often miss.  The weather prediction tools

        they use often produce more than one model and the real prediction comes when the weatherman chooses which

        model to use.  If the person chooses the wrong model then it's not the system that is wrong but the person who

        makes the choice/decision of which model to go with.   

         

        Any person who starts a topic with something like "I cracked the lottery" or the word "guaranteed winning" I just skip

        over.  There is not, nor will there ever be a method or system that can produce 100% and if you find one it will be due

        to a defect in the drawing machine or the operator is corrupt.   I think the only qualification a lottery software must meet

        is that it must produce accurate data the user can analyze to make an informed choice and then provided the choices are

        correct, produce a winning set.  The best systems require the user to make the fewest choices to reach his/her play limit.

         

        The end

        RL

        Well said, my take on this  is 'do not be  too analytical in random setting', less logic , more intuition. I found out that,  staying clear from  mathematical algorithms and focusing on the concepts behind a mathematical formula enhances my intuition. Lets take for example , the ideal of  confidence interval, the formula deals with standard deviations and mean of sampled data, my approach is more on ideal behind the FORMULA.  kudos to statisticians , the stress of tracking parameters is too much for me.

          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
          Stone Mountain*Georgia
          United States
          Member #828
          November 2, 2002
          10491 Posts
          Offline
          Posted: October 4, 2014, 1:12 am - IP Logged

                 RL.....there are several sorts of games being played here at the same time.....and not all of them have anything to do with "prediction" or"systems." 

           Many of them are just experienced  reactions to familiar situations. As one example. 

           Reactions built on years of observation, opportunistic traps using things based on good ODDS and good probabilities.

           Some work fast and some work slowly. With any luck some work the next day .....then it looks like it was a prediction all along. LOL 

           

           P.S.

             " The Law of large Numbers" ...is a curse to players.

               But, there are several things in between.     

           

           

          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                 Win d    

            PeerGynt's avatar - nw archer.jpg
            Simi Valley, CA
            United States
            Member #156940
            July 4, 2014
            671 Posts
            Offline
            Posted: October 4, 2014, 1:26 am - IP Logged

            I guess I am not smart enough to comprehend the definition of the word "system."  Merriam-Webster defines

            system as "a group of related parts that move or work together"   Concerning the lottery, the word "winning"

            and "system" should never be used together.   At best, every lottery method or system is nothing more than a 

            series of tools or suggestions that if guessed correctly will produce better than the odds suggest.

             

            Anyone who thinks that they can predict any level of random consistently suffers from delusions.   Weathermen

            have the best tools that can be designed for predicting weather but they often miss.  The weather prediction tools

            they use often produce more than one model and the real prediction comes when the weatherman chooses which

            model to use.  If the person chooses the wrong model then it's not the system that is wrong but the person who

            makes the choice/decision of which model to go with.   

             

            Any person who starts a topic with something like "I cracked the lottery" or the word "guaranteed winning" I just skip

            over.  There is not, nor will there ever be a method or system that can produce 100% and if you find one it will be due

            to a defect in the drawing machine or the operator is corrupt.   I think the only qualification a lottery software must meet

            is that it must produce accurate data the user can analyze to make an informed choice and then provided the choices are

            correct, produce a winning set.  The best systems require the user to make the fewest choices to reach his/her play limit.

             

            The end

            RL

            Any person who starts a topic with something like "I cracked the lottery" or the word "guaranteed winning" I just skip

            over. There is not, nor will there ever be a method or system that can produce 100% and if you find one it will be due

            to a defect in the drawing machine or the operator is corrupt.

            But RL, these two claims are not mutually exclusive.

            One can "crack" a lottery; AND one can with that cracked system, method, formula, whatever you want to call it, still not win 100% of the time.

            I had a rule of my own when I first approached learning how to play the D3; or should I say, there's a maxim I just believe in general in life, which I apply as a rule to playing this game: "Wherever you find a pattern, a pattern exists."  I think this rule has helped me learn much about the game, and see much of what's going on... but like anything that requires tremendous skill, I've not won all the time (ha! hardly!), and especially because much of it still takes some luck and timing and whatnot.  AND, pattern perceiving.

            Wherever you find a pattern, a pattern exists.  Where did it come from? Is it a real pattern, or a fake pattern? Is it just an accident of numbers and math? Is it a corruption of the machine? Is it a secret backdoor?  Is it a mere illusion I am perceiving as a "pattern"?  All these questions are irrelevant: all that matters is the rule, to me.  Wherever you find a pattern, a pattern exists.

            Patterns can be exploited, because... they are patterns.

            Methods, exploit patterns.

            And series of methods, fall under the category "systems."

            Right? Smiley

            We have no dreams at all, or interesting ones. We should learn to be awake the same way—not at all, or in an interesting manner.   -- Friedrich Nietzsche

              PeerGynt's avatar - nw archer.jpg
              Simi Valley, CA
              United States
              Member #156940
              July 4, 2014
              671 Posts
              Offline
              Posted: October 4, 2014, 1:32 am - IP Logged

              Well said, my take on this  is 'do not be  too analytical in random setting', less logic , more intuition. I found out that,  staying clear from  mathematical algorithms and focusing on the concepts behind a mathematical formula enhances my intuition. Lets take for example , the ideal of  confidence interval, the formula deals with standard deviations and mean of sampled data, my approach is more on ideal behind the FORMULA.  kudos to statisticians , the stress of tracking parameters is too much for me.

              Adobea, using a symbol here or metaphor, I think of your approach to the game - it makes me picture the spinning wheels in a lottery machine: rather than the metaphor of falling balls, or casting dice, or a computer digitally selecting numbers between one and one thousand.

              Each wheel spins round, ten numbers; clicking, clacking, landing on a side; then the next wheel; then the next.

              I'm not saying this is what you are doing, or anything like that.  I'm just saying, your approach to the game, immediately brings this to my own mind.

              And it makes me imagine other approaches to the game - whole new ways of imagining it - I've not perceived before.... Smile

              We have no dreams at all, or interesting ones. We should learn to be awake the same way—not at all, or in an interesting manner.   -- Friedrich Nietzsche

                WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                Stone Mountain*Georgia
                United States
                Member #828
                November 2, 2002
                10491 Posts
                Offline
                Posted: October 4, 2014, 1:44 am - IP Logged

                Well done peer.

                 Here's a prediction.About the word "pattern." 

                After years here on LP....  If you mention perception of "pattern"...and random together this will happen.

                 Someone is going to get a cold chill running up their leg...and run into the street yelling, " Man has always seen patterns where none exist!"  LOL

                 After lots of time and back n forth.... it always ends with someone like me saying," Yes, and sometimes Man actually does see patterns because sometimes they are actually there."

                 Then it fades away after a while... and you can resume your subject. LOL       

                 

                 

                The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                              Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                              Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                       Win d    

                  Avatar

                  United States
                  Member #116344
                  September 8, 2011
                  3928 Posts
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                  Posted: October 4, 2014, 2:05 am - IP Logged

                  PeeGynt

                  I was in high school in early 70's,  I recalled my math teacher during statistics class telling us not memorize formulas, but rather the ideal behind the formulation, this serves two things, 1) you may forget the formula, but the concept will take you there (foundation), 2/ the concept may help you to interpret the formula in a different way or even question a formula. Albert Einstein's theory of  General Relativity was part logic from assumed concepts  and intuition (He  kept writing and re-writing his formula, it was intuition he had on train that formalize the final equation). Intuition is innate, is your best tool.


                    United States
                    Member #93947
                    July 10, 2010
                    2180 Posts
                    Offline
                    Posted: October 4, 2014, 2:38 am - IP Logged

                    Well done peer.

                     Here's a prediction.About the word "pattern." 

                    After years here on LP....  If you mention perception of "pattern"...and random together this will happen.

                     Someone is going to get a cold chill running up their leg...and run into the street yelling, " Man has always seen patterns where none exist!"  LOL

                     After lots of time and back n forth.... it always ends with someone like me saying," Yes, and sometimes Man actually does see patterns because sometimes they are actually there."

                     Then it fades away after a while... and you can resume your subject. LOL       


                    There You Go Again Win D...

                      Avatar

                      United States
                      Member #116344
                      September 8, 2011
                      3928 Posts
                      Offline
                      Posted: October 4, 2014, 2:40 am - IP Logged

                      Any person who starts a topic with something like "I cracked the lottery" or the word "guaranteed winning" I just skip

                      over. There is not, nor will there ever be a method or system that can produce 100% and if you find one it will be due

                      to a defect in the drawing machine or the operator is corrupt.

                      But RL, these two claims are not mutually exclusive.

                      One can "crack" a lottery; AND one can with that cracked system, method, formula, whatever you want to call it, still not win 100% of the time.

                      I had a rule of my own when I first approached learning how to play the D3; or should I say, there's a maxim I just believe in general in life, which I apply as a rule to playing this game: "Wherever you find a pattern, a pattern exists."  I think this rule has helped me learn much about the game, and see much of what's going on... but like anything that requires tremendous skill, I've not won all the time (ha! hardly!), and especially because much of it still takes some luck and timing and whatnot.  AND, pattern perceiving.

                      Wherever you find a pattern, a pattern exists.  Where did it come from? Is it a real pattern, or a fake pattern? Is it just an accident of numbers and math? Is it a corruption of the machine? Is it a secret backdoor?  Is it a mere illusion I am perceiving as a "pattern"?  All these questions are irrelevant: all that matters is the rule, to me.  Wherever you find a pattern, a pattern exists.

                      Patterns can be exploited, because... they are patterns.

                      Methods, exploit patterns.

                      And series of methods, fall under the category "systems."

                      Right? Smiley

                      Patterns> In statistics, there two types of error in data sampling, type 1 deals with the identification of false patterns in a data, this type may yield false-positive in testing situations, sure you may find a pattern, how do you differentiate between   type1 error and type 2, the suggested solution will be the null hypothesis, if you can interpret this hypothesis in a very simple way, then certain 'patterns' can be nullify- this will be hard in a random setting.

                        RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

                        United States
                        Member #59354
                        March 13, 2008
                        3985 Posts
                        Offline
                        Posted: October 4, 2014, 5:46 am - IP Logged

                        Guys

                        What I was trying to say is just play whatever works for you.  I still work on prediction tools but

                        more for fun than anything else.   If the patterns I have found in the past would have proved to

                        be dependable then I would be rich.   My problem is getting all the little jewels to participate in

                        the same draw.   Systems are not winners or losers, that title belongs to the person using them.   

                         

                        Have Fun, it's a game.

                        RL

                        Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

                        I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

                        they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

                        USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

                          US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

                          WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                          Stone Mountain*Georgia
                          United States
                          Member #828
                          November 2, 2002
                          10491 Posts
                          Offline
                          Posted: October 4, 2014, 1:10 pm - IP Logged

                           Please indulge me...to do a little hijack backward.

                           

                           

                           No digits 4,,or 5 has hit in 18 straight draws!

                           NewMexico midday

                                          ......that of course means ...the same group of 488 straights or 48% of the chart has not hit in .......18 draws!

                           Heads/Tails right?  So, effectively you could say that would be18 coin flips of HEADS in a row. Even Gilligan  can see that's special.

                           

                                         I can't predict the next draw ...... but I can predict with100% accuracy ....the very NEXT filter I will start with today!   LOL 

                           

                           

                          The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                        Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                        Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                 Win d    

                            WIN  D's avatar - q05Q0
                            Stone Mountain*Georgia
                            United States
                            Member #828
                            November 2, 2002
                            10491 Posts
                            Offline
                            Posted: October 4, 2014, 1:45 pm - IP Logged

                            For the sake of time.  Now I have to follow my own standing advice and next play an insurance filter bet:

                             36 box doublers cost 9 bucks.

                             055, 244, 334, 488, 155, 335, 344, 588, 255, 444,

                            499, 355, 445, 599, 004, 446, 455, 005, 447, 555,

                            114, 448, 466, 556, 115, 449, 557, 566, 044, 224, 477, 558, 144, 225, 559, 577 

                             

                             Now that we've done that insurance filter business ....we can slow down for the next filter.

                             Now we can take our time....and look over the 104 STRAIGHT($25) versions for the WEAK and Stragglers and try to separate them from the heard. LOL  

                             

                             Any left over play monies....? Fire for effect on some straight singles. NM midday is only about 6 months old. Time filters are pretty much useless right now. 

                             

                              At any rate..AT This POINT IN TIME ......this is one of the BEST/MOST RARE .......top rated  ODDS/PROBABILITY wagers in PICK 3 to "play AT". 

                              Use your best.... "#3 DAY Window Bet Strategies" right now if understand the opportunities. $$$$$ 

                             

                             P.S.

                             If  this does somehow make it till Monday....suggest you call the "NM Gaming Commission" and the Cops. Not sure if you shouldn't do right now in fact.  LOL 

                             

                             

                            The only real failure .....is the failure to try.                               

                                                          Luck is a very rare thing....... Odds not so much. 

                                                          Odds never change .....but probability does. 

                                                                                                                   Win d    

                              Avatar

                              United States
                              Member #116344
                              September 8, 2011
                              3928 Posts
                              Offline
                              Posted: October 4, 2014, 6:03 pm - IP Logged

                              Adobea, using a symbol here or metaphor, I think of your approach to the game - it makes me picture the spinning wheels in a lottery machine: rather than the metaphor of falling balls, or casting dice, or a computer digitally selecting numbers between one and one thousand.

                              Each wheel spins round, ten numbers; clicking, clacking, landing on a side; then the next wheel; then the next.

                              I'm not saying this is what you are doing, or anything like that.  I'm just saying, your approach to the game, immediately brings this to my own mind.

                              And it makes me imagine other approaches to the game - whole new ways of imagining it - I've not perceived before.... Smile

                              NY

                              Pick 3Pick 4
                              MiddayEveningMiddayEvening
                              Sat, Oct 4, 20140-2-28-2-3-2
                              Fri, Oct 3, 20149-2-43-5-56-7-1-22-1-1-8
                              Thu, Oct 2, 20149-0-68-7-02-5-2-00-7-9-3
                              Wed, Oct 1, 20146-4-56-2-01-6-6-52-2-5-4
                              Tue, Sep 30, 20144-6-43-2-63-1-7-37-4-0-1
                              Mon, Sep 29, 20149-8-53-2-74-1-5-72-8-0-8
                              Sun, Sep 28, 20143-0-33-4-65-6-0-04-3-0-7
                              Sat, Sep 27, 20142-9-50-4-34-7-2-02-5-3-1
                              Fri, Sep 26, 20144-9-47-2-80-5-8-80-1-0-0
                              Thu, Sep 25, 20141-0-67-5-03-1-5-13-7-3-5

                              Lets say I have  four different samples of  a data(pool 0,1,2...... 9), I can't  be certain of trending sample based on just back-testing.

                               Consider the workout of the draw set 750 , my samples A,B,C,D yields different sets totaling 256 picks.

                               

                              418

                              501

                              963

                              885  > this sample A  will yield 4*4*4>64 picks for str bets> hits 985

                               

                              527

                              306

                              133

                              992>Sample B > hits 303(+5), 327(+8),326(+10),906(+13)> 4 str8 hits within 13 draws> you may think this sample is the current trend but random may prove you wrong, your best bet to recover your cost, is to stretch the span of play by one prize tag/ # picks  > 500/ 64 picks >8 draws span(flexible if you wage .25 online), lets continue with sample C.

                              573

                              868

                              994

                              085>sample C> hits 985(+7)

                               

                              500

                              288

                              166

                              822>sample D>xxxx

                               Now which of these samples are trending?, logic tells you Sample B with four hits is on, you could be wrong , why? you're back-testing, rather than forward-testing(if your data is based on history). Let's  assume the data was generated based purely on the POOL (members 0 thru 9 with size 10) through simulation or extrapolation, there is no way to differentiate trending sample even by null hypothesis, sample B could be a fluke, my best option is to compress samples A to D using  a SET counter for reduced picks. Total picks for the four samples will be 64x 4(256 sets), the counter will separate identical sets for reduced picks

                                 
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