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How Random is Random?

Topic closed. 174 replies. Last post 3 years ago by ElinaSammy2081.

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garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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Posted: July 24, 2015, 1:03 pm - IP Logged

You get up one cold morning, temps in the teens, go to your vehicle, key the ignition, and nothing happens. You think, what a bad time for this to happen. Ho odd, how strange, how random. Of all days, why today?

You're slicing veggies in the kitchen, glance out the window at a squirrel, and slice your finger. You think, that was dumb. You've done the same thing a dozen times and never had that happen. How odd, strange, RANDOM can you get?

Neither case is truly random. Heat, cold, and age will kill battery. It was a three year old Diehard that had been in the truck 5 years. Yeah, well that takes some of the random out of the equation.

In the case of your finger, you knew a knife would cut you. You knew to pay attention to what you were doing. You didn't listen to your parents growing up either. So there's that.

Very little is truly random. And it only remains truly random as long as we fail to look for the underlying reasons for the result. 

Random is the favorite chocolate when lottery things aren't going well. It's the preferred comfort food of lottery players.

Still, there is only so much random we can blame for "bad luck," or "numbers not hitting."

We love to say "anything can happen on a given night" while the devil is in the details. We all know in our heart of hearts, the possibilities of what will happen are limited. And probabilities limit the possibilities even more.

For an idea of where random meets reality, I ran the Texas 2Step results for both front and back digits for both the 1480 live draws and the 7421 live draws plus the pretests though the last draw 3,5,8,24, BB 7.

1FD is the 1position, Front Digit, 2FD is 2nd position, Front Digit, etc. Hits = the number of hits by digit in a given position. Long = the longest the digit has stayed out. Curr= how long the digit is currently out. PCT= the percentage of hits in that position.

As we can see, the place holder 0 hits in the first position as the front digit 1057 times out of 1480 live draws, 71.42%. It hits 71.81% of the 7421 live draws plus pretests.

Throughout the entire chart, very little change can be seen from 1480 drawings to 7421 drawings.

What this tells us is when random meets reality, reality wins. While "anything can happen," anything doesn't happen most often. What happens most often is reality.

This chart would look similar no matter what jackpot game, be it a Cash5 or state Lottery. (The percentages would change, but overall we would see where probability overcomes the almighty possibility and put away the comforting chocolate of anything can happen).

......and that can of corn hiding in the back of the pantry since 2011?

Might not want to eat that.

G

 

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

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    South Carolina
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    Posted: July 24, 2015, 1:17 pm - IP Logged

    I believe that there are PATTERNS, even in Randomness.  These PATTERNS are what we depend on, creating Pick 3/4/5 Lottery Systems, to help us play the game of Lottery. If PATTERNS did not exist, Lottery Systems would not work at all, b/c of those seemingly "Random" lottery ping pong balls.

      garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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      Posted: July 24, 2015, 1:44 pm - IP Logged

      I believe that there are PATTERNS, even in Randomness.  These PATTERNS are what we depend on, creating Pick 3/4/5 Lottery Systems, to help us play the game of Lottery. If PATTERNS did not exist, Lottery Systems would not work at all, b/c of those seemingly "Random" lottery ping pong balls.

      And I believe that too. As much time, as many hours, and as many ways, I've taken games apart and analyzed the results, I've found a lot of patterns that tell us what's happening. Something is there.

      While people claim it is natural for the human brain to find patterns in everything, when we see these patterns, and others see these patterns, time and again, it's not the mind playing tricks.

      We're recognizing a pattern because it is there!

      I believe eventually someone will solve the lottery dilemma, maybe not to the point of predicting every number, every draw, but to the point where its no longer a matter of throwing out huge amounts of money to have a realistic chance of winning. And I believe recognizing patterns (that do exist) will be a big part of that solution.

      My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

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        August 26, 2012
        1243 Posts
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        Posted: July 24, 2015, 3:41 pm - IP Logged

        You get up one cold morning, temps in the teens, go to your vehicle, key the ignition, and nothing happens. You think, what a bad time for this to happen. Ho odd, how strange, how random. Of all days, why today?

        You're slicing veggies in the kitchen, glance out the window at a squirrel, and slice your finger. You think, that was dumb. You've done the same thing a dozen times and never had that happen. How odd, strange, RANDOM can you get?

        Neither case is truly random. Heat, cold, and age will kill battery. It was a three year old Diehard that had been in the truck 5 years. Yeah, well that takes some of the random out of the equation.

        In the case of your finger, you knew a knife would cut you. You knew to pay attention to what you were doing. You didn't listen to your parents growing up either. So there's that.

        Very little is truly random. And it only remains truly random as long as we fail to look for the underlying reasons for the result. 

        Random is the favorite chocolate when lottery things aren't going well. It's the preferred comfort food of lottery players.

        Still, there is only so much random we can blame for "bad luck," or "numbers not hitting."

        We love to say "anything can happen on a given night" while the devil is in the details. We all know in our heart of hearts, the possibilities of what will happen are limited. And probabilities limit the possibilities even more.

        For an idea of where random meets reality, I ran the Texas 2Step results for both front and back digits for both the 1480 live draws and the 7421 live draws plus the pretests though the last draw 3,5,8,24, BB 7.

        1FD is the 1position, Front Digit, 2FD is 2nd position, Front Digit, etc. Hits = the number of hits by digit in a given position. Long = the longest the digit has stayed out. Curr= how long the digit is currently out. PCT= the percentage of hits in that position.

        As we can see, the place holder 0 hits in the first position as the front digit 1057 times out of 1480 live draws, 71.42%. It hits 71.81% of the 7421 live draws plus pretests.

        Throughout the entire chart, very little change can be seen from 1480 drawings to 7421 drawings.

        What this tells us is when random meets reality, reality wins. While "anything can happen," anything doesn't happen most often. What happens most often is reality.

        This chart would look similar no matter what jackpot game, be it a Cash5 or state Lottery. (The percentages would change, but overall we would see where probability overcomes the almighty possibility and put away the comforting chocolate of anything can happen).

        ......and that can of corn hiding in the back of the pantry since 2011?

        Might not want to eat that.

        G

         

        Maybe there is a higher chance that a car's battery will fail when the weather is cold than when the weather is warm or hot, if it will fail at all.

        --------------------

        There might be a higher chance that you might cut your finger if and or when you get distracted.

        ----------------

        Statistical probability or chance might say that in the very long run in due time, the lottery stats might almost even out closer to what they should be than in the short run.

        That might go not just for overall digits, but also for other stats.

        But I have never checked this on most things, just on a few pick 3 stats.

        ---------------

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          Posted: July 24, 2015, 4:41 pm - IP Logged

          Gary

          The lottery is riddled with patterns, it's the "will it continue when we play it" that's random.

          I chased this sort of thing around the mountain for years and years and while it's somewhat

          easy to build a solution using history the difficult part is making the next draw participate. 

          What we need is a way to evaluate the patterns independently.  It would also be nice if we

          could figure out the random noise between these patterns.   If you have ever used one of

          my bias search tools which are based on regression then you have probably noticed bunches

          of patterns.  It's those pesty next-drawings unwillingness to cooperate that is the problem,

          LOL. 

          I personally would like to see a serious topic devoted to the study of randomness pertaining

          to the lottery without the usual odds stuff.  The lottery is a closed system where true random

          is unrestricted.   Pick a number from 0 to inifinty, now that's random.   Since the lottery selects

          from a fixed pool it's bound to produce patterns that are closly related to the pool it's self.

          RL

          ....

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            bgonçalves
            Brasil
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            June 9, 2010
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            Posted: July 24, 2015, 4:46 pm - IP Logged

            garyo,Mathematically, so you can hit 75% to 80% as the Pareto Law walk all is 80/20
            So in a game 496, mathematically achieved with some confidence hit 4 numbers
              The other two will be random numbers missing in pick3, I can hit the pair (two-digit pick 3) the other digit will be random, short. A part of the whole 80%, 75% of a lotreria of any size = 3,4,5,6 pick, so if you can hit part of it, a part will be random in the shell of a tortoise's standards, small arrays combining, that lotteries can be like a wave where, through the cycle, arrays are more loaded than others, passing the wave these standards or groups of pre = clear-cut numbers
              The delay, cycles and frequencies for position with the neighboring number. It is part of the possible 80% 75% cally, other than random, can repetition.

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              Posted: July 24, 2015, 5:02 pm - IP Logged

              dr san

              I am running into something like you mention with my pick-4 daily game.  I manage 3 of the 4 correct digits

              almost every game but can't seem to nail the 4th no matter what I try.  I can't say which digit will be the

              bad selection.  It's so frustrating to get so close only to bog down just short of the win.

              RL

              ....

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                Posted: July 24, 2015, 5:08 pm - IP Logged

                Gary

                The lottery is riddled with patterns, it's the "will it continue when we play it" that's random.

                I chased this sort of thing around the mountain for years and years and while it's somewhat

                easy to build a solution using history the difficult part is making the next draw participate. 

                What we need is a way to evaluate the patterns independently.  It would also be nice if we

                could figure out the random noise between these patterns.   If you have ever used one of

                my bias search tools which are based on regression then you have probably noticed bunches

                of patterns.  It's those pesty next-drawings unwillingness to cooperate that is the problem,

                LOL. 

                I personally would like to see a serious topic devoted to the study of randomness pertaining

                to the lottery without the usual odds stuff.  The lottery is a closed system where true random

                is unrestricted.   Pick a number from 0 to inifinty, now that's random.   Since the lottery selects

                from a fixed pool it's bound to produce patterns that are closly related to the pool it's self.

                RL

                Typo

                I personally would like to see a serious topic devoted to the study of randomness pertaining

                to the lottery without the usual odds stuff.  The lottery is a closed system where true random

                is unrestricted.   Pick a number from 0 to inifinty, now that's random.   Since the lottery selects

                from a fixed pool it's bound to produce patterns that are closly related to the pool it's self.

                 

                There should of been a "as" between "where & true" Should have read.

                The lottery is a closed system where as true random is unrestricted.

                 

                RL

                ....

                  garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                  Thread Starter
                  Dallas, Texas
                  United States
                  Member #4549
                  May 2, 2004
                  1875 Posts
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                  Posted: July 24, 2015, 5:11 pm - IP Logged

                  Maybe there is a higher chance that a car's battery will fail when the weather is cold than when the weather is warm or hot, if it will fail at all.

                  --------------------

                  There might be a higher chance that you might cut your finger if and or when you get distracted.

                  ----------------

                  Statistical probability or chance might say that in the very long run in due time, the lottery stats might almost even out closer to what they should be than in the short run.

                  That might go not just for overall digits, but also for other stats.

                  But I have never checked this on most things, just on a few pick 3 stats.

                  ---------------

                  Yes, we know that heat and cold will kill a battery. And we know getting distracted leads to injuries. And we know these things through experimentation that has shown it true time and time again.

                  In other words, we realize that things that seem random at the time are not so random once we explore the underlying cause.

                  In the real world, if an event happens once, we write it off as random. If it happens several times we recognize it as a an anomaly. But there comes a point when it becomes recognized as a pattern, or part of a larger pattern and we have to ask "What is the cause?" "How can we use this?" and even, "Can we use this?"

                  Certainly, after a large number of draws we will any game level out, coming closer to the percentages found in the overall matrix. No question. I'd post comparative charts, I'm on an older computer today and those are not available.

                  If the question is: "Do the patterns disappear at any point?"

                  I think they become better defined. Jade has shown we can run draws through hundreds of billions to tens of trillions with little change in the results. 

                  Any time we do the same thing over and over, and get the same results, its no longer random. It part of a pattern. It has a cause.

                  Not to take this off course, but here's food for thought:

                  The emperor comes to you and offers a wager,

                  1) he pulls three numbers from three different, complete ball sets, of which you must match all three, or

                  2) he pulls 5 numbers from one ball set, of which you must match three

                  If you refuse to play, you will be thrown to the lions. If you don't match all three, you will be thrown to the lions.

                  Which then offers the best chance for survival?

                  My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                    Thread Starter
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                    Posted: July 24, 2015, 5:17 pm - IP Logged

                    Typo

                    I personally would like to see a serious topic devoted to the study of randomness pertaining

                    to the lottery without the usual odds stuff.  The lottery is a closed system where true random

                    is unrestricted.   Pick a number from 0 to inifinty, now that's random.   Since the lottery selects

                    from a fixed pool it's bound to produce patterns that are closly related to the pool it's self.

                     

                    There should of been a "as" between "where & true" Should have read.

                    The lottery is a closed system where as true random is unrestricted.

                     

                    RL

                    You and me both RL!

                    I see you guys (adam) making good progress and posting impressive results and it makes me wonder where all the people who used to have some wonderful input has gone.

                    Playing of others ideas while sharing our own produces positive results all the way around.

                    My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
                      mid-Ohio
                      United States
                      Member #9
                      March 24, 2001
                      20156 Posts
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                      Posted: July 24, 2015, 6:29 pm - IP Logged

                      You get up one cold morning, temps in the teens, go to your vehicle, key the ignition, and nothing happens. You think, what a bad time for this to happen. Ho odd, how strange, how random. Of all days, why today?

                      You're slicing veggies in the kitchen, glance out the window at a squirrel, and slice your finger. You think, that was dumb. You've done the same thing a dozen times and never had that happen. How odd, strange, RANDOM can you get?

                      Neither case is truly random. Heat, cold, and age will kill battery. It was a three year old Diehard that had been in the truck 5 years. Yeah, well that takes some of the random out of the equation.

                      In the case of your finger, you knew a knife would cut you. You knew to pay attention to what you were doing. You didn't listen to your parents growing up either. So there's that.

                      Very little is truly random. And it only remains truly random as long as we fail to look for the underlying reasons for the result. 

                      Random is the favorite chocolate when lottery things aren't going well. It's the preferred comfort food of lottery players.

                      Still, there is only so much random we can blame for "bad luck," or "numbers not hitting."

                      We love to say "anything can happen on a given night" while the devil is in the details. We all know in our heart of hearts, the possibilities of what will happen are limited. And probabilities limit the possibilities even more.

                      For an idea of where random meets reality, I ran the Texas 2Step results for both front and back digits for both the 1480 live draws and the 7421 live draws plus the pretests though the last draw 3,5,8,24, BB 7.

                      1FD is the 1position, Front Digit, 2FD is 2nd position, Front Digit, etc. Hits = the number of hits by digit in a given position. Long = the longest the digit has stayed out. Curr= how long the digit is currently out. PCT= the percentage of hits in that position.

                      As we can see, the place holder 0 hits in the first position as the front digit 1057 times out of 1480 live draws, 71.42%. It hits 71.81% of the 7421 live draws plus pretests.

                      Throughout the entire chart, very little change can be seen from 1480 drawings to 7421 drawings.

                      What this tells us is when random meets reality, reality wins. While "anything can happen," anything doesn't happen most often. What happens most often is reality.

                      This chart would look similar no matter what jackpot game, be it a Cash5 or state Lottery. (The percentages would change, but overall we would see where probability overcomes the almighty possibility and put away the comforting chocolate of anything can happen).

                      ......and that can of corn hiding in the back of the pantry since 2011?

                      Might not want to eat that.

                      G

                       

                      "It was a three year old Diehard that had been in the truck 5 years."

                      That's the real riddle, you figure out how something that had only existed for three years could be some where for five, you'll be able to figure out any lottery.  I guess it's all about the way you see things.

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning one * 
                         
                                    Evil Looking       

                        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                        Thread Starter
                        Dallas, Texas
                        United States
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                        Posted: July 24, 2015, 7:28 pm - IP Logged

                        Gary

                        The lottery is riddled with patterns, it's the "will it continue when we play it" that's random.

                        I chased this sort of thing around the mountain for years and years and while it's somewhat

                        easy to build a solution using history the difficult part is making the next draw participate. 

                        What we need is a way to evaluate the patterns independently.  It would also be nice if we

                        could figure out the random noise between these patterns.   If you have ever used one of

                        my bias search tools which are based on regression then you have probably noticed bunches

                        of patterns.  It's those pesty next-drawings unwillingness to cooperate that is the problem,

                        LOL. 

                        I personally would like to see a serious topic devoted to the study of randomness pertaining

                        to the lottery without the usual odds stuff.  The lottery is a closed system where true random

                        is unrestricted.   Pick a number from 0 to inifinty, now that's random.   Since the lottery selects

                        from a fixed pool it's bound to produce patterns that are closly related to the pool it's self.

                        RL

                        I agree. Plenty of patterns. Between the two of us we've forgotten more paths that led to patterns than we care to count!

                        And YEP! The old "will continue" bites my hind end too. Don't know if there is a solution to it. Might be one of the variables we have to live with but when you're getting 3 of 5 or in my case 2 of 4, you can't keep calling everything random.

                        I'm not claiming a solution will be found for everything and all randomness will disappear. I think we are reaching a point where a certain amount of what we called randomness is becoming clearer.

                        Getting two number every draw for the last couple of month will drive you insane. If they come on a QP then yeah, it was random, but if you sit down and make the conscious determination that they can be expected, its something else.

                        I've started considering difference possible ways of getting around the missing numbers.

                        I play $3 to $5 each draw. I play front sets coupled with 4 back digits. If i were to change one back digit with each combination, it would double the cost. Maybe change two back digits?

                        My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

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                          new jersey
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                          Posted: July 24, 2015, 7:31 pm - IP Logged

                          i  agree  100%

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                            new jersey
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                            Posted: July 24, 2015, 7:37 pm - IP Logged

                            t  pick  4  its  a  suckers  game,  if  ur    hot   on    digits  most  of  the  time,  then  play  pick  3   and  bang  a  number  10 times  pays  big  for   5.00 bet

                              garyo1954's avatar - garyo
                              Thread Starter
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                              United States
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                              Posted: July 24, 2015, 7:52 pm - IP Logged

                              "It was a three year old Diehard that had been in the truck 5 years."

                              That's the real riddle, you figure out how something that had only existed for three years could be some where for five, you'll be able to figure out any lottery.  I guess it's all about the way you see things.

                              LOL! Meant the battery was warranted for three that had been in the truck for 5.

                              Still don't know if it was the battery, or the connection. Terminals were corroded when they changed it.

                              My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                                 
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