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How Random is Random?

Topic closed. 174 replies. Last post 1 year ago by ElinaSammy2081.

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RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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Posted: August 3, 2015, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

Stack

Ill give it a shot.  To me random as pertaining to the lottery is restricted to the order the numbers are drawn.

This is the only random element of a lottery.  The numbers are not random, just the order they are drawn.

RL

"The numbers are not random, just the order they are drawn."

Isn't that just saying the same thing in a different way?  For example a pool of 49 numbers have almost an infinite number of orders they could be drawn.

 * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
   
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    RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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    Posted: August 4, 2015, 12:34 am - IP Logged

    Isn't that just saying the same thing in a different way? 

    Nope!

    Lotteries are not random.   It may look random, smell like random etc.. but it's really all about order.

    We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

    out of my ass but consider this.     

    I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

    profit playing that way.  If the game was random I could not predict it regardless of the number of lines

    I played.

    Are the odds against us, IMHO,  yes.  Are they impossible, IMHO, NO. 

     

    RL 

    Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

    I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

    they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

    USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

      US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
      mid-Ohio
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      Posted: August 4, 2015, 1:54 am - IP Logged

      Isn't that just saying the same thing in a different way? 

      Nope!

      Lotteries are not random.   It may look random, smell like random etc.. but it's really all about order.

      We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

      out of my ass but consider this.     

      I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

      profit playing that way.  If the game was random I could not predict it regardless of the number of lines

      I played.

      Are the odds against us, IMHO,  yes.  Are they impossible, IMHO, NO. 

       

      RL 

      "We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

      out of my ass but consider this.     

      I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

      profit playing that way." 

      Because lottery games have finite number of possible out comes, you can cover them all and know the winning combination will be covered too but that is not  predicting an outcome, that's simply saying any one of them could happen and you're covering them all which is what random claims too.

      Wheeling to cover a particular out come is not predicting and if you only match the guaranteed results you can't make a profit because except for jackpots lotteries pay less than 10% of what it costs to cover the odds of matching a particular group size.

      These days even jackpots seldom exceed the cost of playing every possible combinations.

       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
         
                   Evil Looking       

        CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
        ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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        Posted: August 4, 2015, 4:44 am - IP Logged

        Isn't that just saying the same thing in a different way? 

        Nope!

        Lotteries are not random.   It may look random, smell like random etc.. but it's really all about order.

        We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

        out of my ass but consider this.     

        I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

        profit playing that way.  If the game was random I could not predict it regardless of the number of lines

        I played.

        Are the odds against us, IMHO,  yes.  Are they impossible, IMHO, NO. 

         

        RL 

        Rl,

        What if we change our tracking method? Instead of analyzing the draws as drawn, track draw order.

          RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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          Posted: August 4, 2015, 8:48 am - IP Logged

          "We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

          out of my ass but consider this.     

          I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

          profit playing that way." 

          Because lottery games have finite number of possible out comes, you can cover them all and know the winning combination will be covered too but that is not  predicting an outcome, that's simply saying any one of them could happen and you're covering them all which is what random claims too.

          Wheeling to cover a particular out come is not predicting and if you only match the guaranteed results you can't make a profit because except for jackpots lotteries pay less than 10% of what it costs to cover the odds of matching a particular group size.

          These days even jackpots seldom exceed the cost of playing every possible combinations.

          Rj

          Your missing the point, for instance, I just picked a series of random numbers in my head.  Can you tell me how many

          lines it will take to cover all the combinations?   I would say no because you do not know the matrix.  Once you know

          the matrix variables then it can be easily calculated.  A lottery drawing mimics a random event but it is not random. 

          I may be splitting hairs here but it's either random or it's not.   My reply was in response to a question posed about

          how is random defined.   A random event is unknowable and cannot be solved using math.  The lottery is knowable

          to a degree.   If a JP is won using a system it cannot be proved that the system was the winning factor but at the same

          time if can not be proved that it was not.   I think chance will always play a roll and I am fine with that. 

          RL

          Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

          I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

          they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

          USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

            US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

            RL-RANDOMLOGIC's avatar - usafce

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            Posted: August 4, 2015, 9:05 am - IP Logged

            Bob

            Be interesting but putting it in a format it so that it could be analyzed would be difficult.  I posted the results

            for a predictor based on the lexie/order  in the JP games forum and it broke close to even but mostly due to

            a 5of6 hit up front.  I still have the predictor and someday I will dig it out and do some more work on it.  It was

            based on the RAC option that was included with DMP but refined to predict 35 or fewer lines.   One of the older

            versions of RAC did show several 6of6 and 5of5 wins but it produced too many lines to play unless filters were

            used.

            RL

            Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

            I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

            they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

            USAF https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Base_Engineer_Emergency_Force

              US Flag Trump / 2016 & 2020  

              RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
              mid-Ohio
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              Posted: August 4, 2015, 10:35 am - IP Logged

              Rj

              Your missing the point, for instance, I just picked a series of random numbers in my head.  Can you tell me how many

              lines it will take to cover all the combinations?   I would say no because you do not know the matrix.  Once you know

              the matrix variables then it can be easily calculated.  A lottery drawing mimics a random event but it is not random. 

              I may be splitting hairs here but it's either random or it's not.   My reply was in response to a question posed about

              how is random defined.   A random event is unknowable and cannot be solved using math.  The lottery is knowable

              to a degree.   If a JP is won using a system it cannot be proved that the system was the winning factor but at the same

              time if can not be proved that it was not.   I think chance will always play a roll and I am fine with that. 

              RL

              That's like saying the results of flipping a coin are not random because it only has two sides and since you know that you know which side it will land on.  Saying it will land on head or tail is not predicting but covering all possible outcomes

              I know if you are picking a group of numbers to play in a 6/49 game, you can't just pick any numbers, ,none of the numbers can be higher than 49 and for a 6/49 game the % coverage is:

                                         WHEEL COVERAGE AND PERCENT
               LOTTERY POOL SIZE  49
                COMBINATION SIZE  6
               13983816 POSSIBLE COMBOS - Wheel Size - Percent Cover - Possible Combinations
               No.    %COVER        Combos             No.    %COVER        Combos 
              ________________________________________________________________________________
               49 = 100.000000%     13983816           48 =  87.755102%     12271512
               47 =  76.785714%     10737573           46 =  66.983283%     9366819
               45 =  58.246333%     8145060            44 =  50.480155%     7059052
               43 =  43.596498%     6096454            42 =  37.513265%     5245786
               41 =  32.154227%     4496388            40 =  27.448731%     3838380
               39 =  23.331421%     3262623            38 =  19.741965%     2760680
               37 =  16.624818%     2324784            36 =  13.928902%     1947792
               35 =  11.607418%     1623160            34 =   9.617575%     1344904
               33 =   7.920356%     1107568            32 =   6.480284%     906191
               31 =   5.265237%     736281             30 =   4.246159%     593775
               29 =   3.396920%     475019             28 =   2.694107%     376739
               27 =   2.116804%     296010             26 =   1.646403%     230230
               25 =   1.266464%     177100             24 =   0.962513%     134596
               23 =   0.721884%     100947             22 =   0.533567%     74613
               21 =   0.388049%     54264              20 =   0.277178%     38760
               19 =   0.194024%     27132              18 =   0.132753%     18564
               17 =   0.088502%     12376              16 =   0.057266%     8008
               15 =   0.035791%     5005               14 =   0.021475%     3003
               13 =   0.012271%     1716               12 =   0.006608%     924
               11 =   0.003304%     462                10 =   0.001502%     210
                9 =   0.000601%     84                  8 =   0.000200%     28
                7 =   0.000050%     7                   6 =   0.000007%     1 

               * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                 
                           Evil Looking       

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                bgonçalves
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                Posted: August 4, 2015, 2:45 pm - IP Logged

                RJOH.By the law of benford can not be used in lotteries?

                  RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                  Posted: August 4, 2015, 5:04 pm - IP Logged

                  RJOH.By the law of benford can not be used in lotteries?

                  I had never heard of the benford law until you mentioned it.  Everything I've posted have be calculated or from my observations but I may check some of my future observations to see if they follow the benford curve.

                   * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                     
                               Evil Looking       

                    garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                    Posted: August 5, 2015, 9:05 am - IP Logged

                    Hoping to have some fairly comprehensive breakdowns this afternoon or this evening to add to that might help explain.

                    Since Benford has been mentioned, considering another edit to sort the back digits from low to high. May do that yet. First thought says that since there are more combinations that start with 1 than start with 2, and more combinations that start with 2 than start with three, and so on, it should be a given we see more ones.

                    The only question might be in the percentages.

                    My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                      RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                      Posted: August 5, 2015, 10:22 am - IP Logged

                      RJOH.By the law of benford can not be used in lotteries?

                      Using the last 1336 combinations of Ohio Classic Lotto, according to WikipediA the benford's law suggests the leading digits should be distributed in the following way:

                      Leading Digit     Probability
                            1              30.1%
                            2              17.6%
                            3              12.5%
                            4               9.7%
                            5               7.9%
                            6               6.7%
                            7               5.8%
                            8               5.1%
                            9               4.6%

                      Actually the leading digits of 1336 Ohio Classic Lotto drawings are distributed in this way:

                      1 = 468       35.0%
                      2 = 183       13.7%
                      3 = 133       10.0%
                      4 = 117        8.8%
                      5 = 101        7.6%
                      6 = 105        7.9%   
                      7 = 76         5.7%
                      8 = 57         4.3%
                      9 = 66         4.9%

                       * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                         
                                   Evil Looking       

                        garyo1954's avatar - garyo
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                        Posted: August 5, 2015, 10:57 am - IP Logged

                        Using the last 1336 combinations of Ohio Classic Lotto, according to WikipediA the benford's law suggests the leading digits should be distributed in the following way:

                        Leading Digit     Probability
                              1              30.1%
                              2              17.6%
                              3              12.5%
                              4               9.7%
                              5               7.9%
                              6               6.7%
                              7               5.8%
                              8               5.1%
                              9               4.6%

                        Actually the leading digits of 1336 Ohio Classic Lotto drawings are distributed in this way:

                        1 = 468       35.0%
                        2 = 183       13.7%
                        3 = 133       10.0%
                        4 = 117        8.8%
                        5 = 101        7.6%
                        6 = 105        7.9%   
                        7 = 76         5.7%
                        8 = 57         4.3%
                        9 = 66         4.9%

                        Yep RJOH that's what I'm talking about. May do it for the 2Step just to see.

                        Right now fighting through compilation errors.

                        My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

                          RJOh's avatar - chipmunk
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                          Posted: August 5, 2015, 11:45 am - IP Logged

                          Yep RJOH that's what I'm talking about. May do it for the 2Step just to see.

                          Right now fighting through compilation errors.

                          Actually I've been looking for something similar to the benford's law concerning the formations of lottery combinations that suggest that certain formations are more likely than than others.  I think RL with his lexi program and Jadelottery with his three sum math are looking for something similar.

                          This wouldn't prove that random isn't so random but that random doesn't eliminate the natural laws of orders.

                           * you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket * 
                             
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                            bgonçalves
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                            Posted: August 5, 2015, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

                            Hello, RJOH, we have a problem !!!, the law of benford, does not seem to work very well in lotteries Because a given period of sweepstakes, seeks to balance the output of the digits of each number the digits 0 through 9. In lotteries seems be more balanced, that the law of benford, benford the law on accounting data to have very beginning of a series, is different from lotteries. In lotteries there is balance, so we have to look at rates and average, by position, then the average will command

                              CARBOB's avatar - FL LOTTERY_LOGO.png
                              ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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                              Posted: August 5, 2015, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

                              Using the last 1336 combinations of Ohio Classic Lotto, according to WikipediA the benford's law suggests the leading digits should be distributed in the following way:

                              Leading Digit     Probability
                                    1              30.1%
                                    2              17.6%
                                    3              12.5%
                                    4               9.7%
                                    5               7.9%
                                    6               6.7%
                                    7               5.8%
                                    8               5.1%
                                    9               4.6%

                              Actually the leading digits of 1336 Ohio Classic Lotto drawings are distributed in this way:

                              1 = 468       35.0%
                              2 = 183       13.7%
                              3 = 133       10.0%
                              4 = 117        8.8%
                              5 = 101        7.6%
                              6 = 105        7.9%   
                              7 = 76         5.7%
                              8 = 57         4.3%
                              9 = 66         4.9%

                              RJOH,

                              Do you have the draws in draw order? Would the percentage be the same?

                                 
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