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# How Random is Random?

Topic closed. 174 replies. Last post 1 year ago by ElinaSammy2081.

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mid-Ohio
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 Posted: August 3, 2015, 10:18 pm - IP Logged

Stack

Ill give it a shot.  To me random as pertaining to the lottery is restricted to the order the numbers are drawn.

This is the only random element of a lottery.  The numbers are not random, just the order they are drawn.

RL

"The numbers are not random, just the order they are drawn."

Isn't that just saying the same thing in a different way?  For example a pool of 49 numbers have almost an infinite number of orders they could be drawn.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

United States
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 Posted: August 4, 2015, 12:34 am - IP Logged

Isn't that just saying the same thing in a different way?

Nope!

Lotteries are not random.   It may look random, smell like random etc.. but it's really all about order.

We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

out of my ass but consider this.

I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

profit playing that way.  If the game was random I could not predict it regardless of the number of lines

I played.

Are the odds against us, IMHO,  yes.  Are they impossible, IMHO, NO.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: August 4, 2015, 1:54 am - IP Logged

Isn't that just saying the same thing in a different way?

Nope!

Lotteries are not random.   It may look random, smell like random etc.. but it's really all about order.

We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

out of my ass but consider this.

I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

profit playing that way.  If the game was random I could not predict it regardless of the number of lines

I played.

Are the odds against us, IMHO,  yes.  Are they impossible, IMHO, NO.

RL

"We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

out of my ass but consider this.

I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

profit playing that way."

Because lottery games have finite number of possible out comes, you can cover them all and know the winning combination will be covered too but that is not  predicting an outcome, that's simply saying any one of them could happen and you're covering them all which is what random claims too.

Wheeling to cover a particular out come is not predicting and if you only match the guaranteed results you can't make a profit because except for jackpots lotteries pay less than 10% of what it costs to cover the odds of matching a particular group size.

These days even jackpots seldom exceed the cost of playing every possible combinations.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

ORLANDO, FLORIDA
United States
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June 3, 2004
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 Posted: August 4, 2015, 4:44 am - IP Logged

Isn't that just saying the same thing in a different way?

Nope!

Lotteries are not random.   It may look random, smell like random etc.. but it's really all about order.

We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

out of my ass but consider this.

I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

profit playing that way.  If the game was random I could not predict it regardless of the number of lines

I played.

Are the odds against us, IMHO,  yes.  Are they impossible, IMHO, NO.

RL

Rl,

What if we change our tracking method? Instead of analyzing the draws as drawn, track draw order.

United States
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 Posted: August 4, 2015, 8:48 am - IP Logged

"We can calculate the probabilities of a lottery game because it's finite.   This may sound like I am talking

out of my ass but consider this.

I can predict the winning set 100% of the time for any number game.  What I can't do is make a make a

profit playing that way."

Because lottery games have finite number of possible out comes, you can cover them all and know the winning combination will be covered too but that is not  predicting an outcome, that's simply saying any one of them could happen and you're covering them all which is what random claims too.

Wheeling to cover a particular out come is not predicting and if you only match the guaranteed results you can't make a profit because except for jackpots lotteries pay less than 10% of what it costs to cover the odds of matching a particular group size.

These days even jackpots seldom exceed the cost of playing every possible combinations.

Rj

Your missing the point, for instance, I just picked a series of random numbers in my head.  Can you tell me how many

lines it will take to cover all the combinations?   I would say no because you do not know the matrix.  Once you know

the matrix variables then it can be easily calculated.  A lottery drawing mimics a random event but it is not random.

I may be splitting hairs here but it's either random or it's not.   My reply was in response to a question posed about

how is random defined.   A random event is unknowable and cannot be solved using math.  The lottery is knowable

to a degree.   If a JP is won using a system it cannot be proved that the system was the winning factor but at the same

time if can not be proved that it was not.   I think chance will always play a roll and I am fine with that.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

United States
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 Posted: August 4, 2015, 9:05 am - IP Logged

Bob

Be interesting but putting it in a format it so that it could be analyzed would be difficult.  I posted the results

for a predictor based on the lexie/order  in the JP games forum and it broke close to even but mostly due to

a 5of6 hit up front.  I still have the predictor and someday I will dig it out and do some more work on it.  It was

based on the RAC option that was included with DMP but refined to predict 35 or fewer lines.   One of the older

versions of RAC did show several 6of6 and 5of5 wins but it produced too many lines to play unless filters were

used.

RL

Working on my Ph.D.  "University of hard Knocks"

I will consider the opinion that my winnings are a product of chance if you are willing to consider

they are not.  Many great discoveries come while searching for something else

Trump / 2016 & 2020

mid-Ohio
United States
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March 24, 2001
19819 Posts
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 Posted: August 4, 2015, 10:35 am - IP Logged

Rj

Your missing the point, for instance, I just picked a series of random numbers in my head.  Can you tell me how many

lines it will take to cover all the combinations?   I would say no because you do not know the matrix.  Once you know

the matrix variables then it can be easily calculated.  A lottery drawing mimics a random event but it is not random.

I may be splitting hairs here but it's either random or it's not.   My reply was in response to a question posed about

how is random defined.   A random event is unknowable and cannot be solved using math.  The lottery is knowable

to a degree.   If a JP is won using a system it cannot be proved that the system was the winning factor but at the same

time if can not be proved that it was not.   I think chance will always play a roll and I am fine with that.

RL

That's like saying the results of flipping a coin are not random because it only has two sides and since you know that you know which side it will land on.  Saying it will land on head or tail is not predicting but covering all possible outcomes

I know if you are picking a group of numbers to play in a 6/49 game, you can't just pick any numbers, ,none of the numbers can be higher than 49 and for a 6/49 game the % coverage is:

WHEEL COVERAGE AND PERCENT
LOTTERY POOL SIZE  49
COMBINATION SIZE  6
13983816 POSSIBLE COMBOS - Wheel Size - Percent Cover - Possible Combinations
No.    %COVER        Combos             No.    %COVER        Combos
________________________________________________________________________________
49 = 100.000000%     13983816           48 =  87.755102%     12271512
47 =  76.785714%     10737573           46 =  66.983283%     9366819
45 =  58.246333%     8145060            44 =  50.480155%     7059052
43 =  43.596498%     6096454            42 =  37.513265%     5245786
41 =  32.154227%     4496388            40 =  27.448731%     3838380
39 =  23.331421%     3262623            38 =  19.741965%     2760680
37 =  16.624818%     2324784            36 =  13.928902%     1947792
35 =  11.607418%     1623160            34 =   9.617575%     1344904
33 =   7.920356%     1107568            32 =   6.480284%     906191
31 =   5.265237%     736281             30 =   4.246159%     593775
29 =   3.396920%     475019             28 =   2.694107%     376739
27 =   2.116804%     296010             26 =   1.646403%     230230
25 =   1.266464%     177100             24 =   0.962513%     134596
23 =   0.721884%     100947             22 =   0.533567%     74613
21 =   0.388049%     54264              20 =   0.277178%     38760
19 =   0.194024%     27132              18 =   0.132753%     18564
17 =   0.088502%     12376              16 =   0.057266%     8008
15 =   0.035791%     5005               14 =   0.021475%     3003
13 =   0.012271%     1716               12 =   0.006608%     924
11 =   0.003304%     462                10 =   0.001502%     210
9 =   0.000601%     84                  8 =   0.000200%     28
7 =   0.000050%     7                   6 =   0.000007%     1

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

bgonÃ§alves
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 Posted: August 4, 2015, 2:45 pm - IP Logged

RJOH.By the law of benford can not be used in lotteries?

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: August 4, 2015, 5:04 pm - IP Logged

RJOH.By the law of benford can not be used in lotteries?

I had never heard of the benford law until you mentioned it.  Everything I've posted have be calculated or from my observations but I may check some of my future observations to see if they follow the benford curve.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Dallas, Texas
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 Posted: August 5, 2015, 9:05 am - IP Logged

Hoping to have some fairly comprehensive breakdowns this afternoon or this evening to add to that might help explain.

Since Benford has been mentioned, considering another edit to sort the back digits from low to high. May do that yet. First thought says that since there are more combinations that start with 1 than start with 2, and more combinations that start with 2 than start with three, and so on, it should be a given we see more ones.

The only question might be in the percentages.

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: August 5, 2015, 10:22 am - IP Logged

RJOH.By the law of benford can not be used in lotteries?

Using the last 1336 combinations of Ohio Classic Lotto, according to WikipediA the benford's law suggests the leading digits should be distributed in the following way:

1              30.1%
2              17.6%
3              12.5%
4               9.7%
5               7.9%
6               6.7%
7               5.8%
8               5.1%
9               4.6%

Actually the leading digits of 1336 Ohio Classic Lotto drawings are distributed in this way:

1 = 468       35.0%
2 = 183       13.7%
3 = 133       10.0%
4 = 117        8.8%
5 = 101        7.6%
6 = 105        7.9%
7 = 76         5.7%
8 = 57         4.3%
9 = 66         4.9%

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

Dallas, Texas
United States
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May 2, 2004
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 Posted: August 5, 2015, 10:57 am - IP Logged

Using the last 1336 combinations of Ohio Classic Lotto, according to WikipediA the benford's law suggests the leading digits should be distributed in the following way:

1              30.1%
2              17.6%
3              12.5%
4               9.7%
5               7.9%
6               6.7%
7               5.8%
8               5.1%
9               4.6%

Actually the leading digits of 1336 Ohio Classic Lotto drawings are distributed in this way:

1 = 468       35.0%
2 = 183       13.7%
3 = 133       10.0%
4 = 117        8.8%
5 = 101        7.6%
6 = 105        7.9%
7 = 76         5.7%
8 = 57         4.3%
9 = 66         4.9%

Yep RJOH that's what I'm talking about. May do it for the 2Step just to see.

Right now fighting through compilation errors.

My greatest accomplishment is teaching cats about Vienna Sausage. When I need a friend, all I need do is walk outside, pop open a can, and every little critter in the neighborhood drops by to say "Hi!"

mid-Ohio
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 Posted: August 5, 2015, 11:45 am - IP Logged

Yep RJOH that's what I'm talking about. May do it for the 2Step just to see.

Right now fighting through compilation errors.

Actually I've been looking for something similar to the benford's law concerning the formations of lottery combinations that suggest that certain formations are more likely than than others.  I think RL with his lexi program and Jadelottery with his three sum math are looking for something similar.

This wouldn't prove that random isn't so random but that random doesn't eliminate the natural laws of orders.

* you don't need to buy more tickets, just buy a winning ticket *

bgonÃ§alves
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 Posted: August 5, 2015, 12:28 pm - IP Logged

Hello, RJOH, we have a problem !!!, the law of benford, does not seem to work very well in lotteries Because a given period of sweepstakes, seeks to balance the output of the digits of each number the digits 0 through 9. In lotteries seems be more balanced, that the law of benford, benford the law on accounting data to have very beginning of a series, is different from lotteries. In lotteries there is balance, so we have to look at rates and average, by position, then the average will command

ORLANDO, FLORIDA
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 Posted: August 5, 2015, 12:50 pm - IP Logged

Using the last 1336 combinations of Ohio Classic Lotto, according to WikipediA the benford's law suggests the leading digits should be distributed in the following way:

1              30.1%
2              17.6%
3              12.5%
4               9.7%
5               7.9%
6               6.7%
7               5.8%
8               5.1%
9               4.6%

Actually the leading digits of 1336 Ohio Classic Lotto drawings are distributed in this way:

1 = 468       35.0%
2 = 183       13.7%
3 = 133       10.0%
4 = 117        8.8%
5 = 101        7.6%
6 = 105        7.9%
7 = 76         5.7%
8 = 57         4.3%
9 = 66         4.9%

RJOH,

Do you have the draws in draw order? Would the percentage be the same?

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